Blizzard of 93

Good….he must be using reverse psychology! Most of his followers are from VA, so it really does not matter. He is far often more wrong than right!

@psuhoffman in the Mid Atlantic forum today said the upcoming pattern reminds him of 1994. 1994 was very memorable for CTP, with most of us being on the right side of the gradient. MDT had a top 10 snow season with over 70 inches in 1994. I would be thrilled with just getting back on the board with a few Warning level snow events to make this year a respectable season.

All 3 major ensembles look great starting this weekend through the end of the month with with general pattern. The 15 day snow maps on the ensembles have really ramped up as well and have the look that is screaming “it’s gonna snow!”

….and the 12z Euro & 12z Canadian say to gas up the snow blowers and get the shovels ready for most of the church parking lots in CTP on Sunday into Monday. The GFS is all alone and needs an exorcism…

There is still no agreement in the major weather models for the Sunday/Monday storm chance. The 6z GFS still cuts the storm to Toronto bringing rain. The 0z Euro now shreds the system and slides it under us with a little light snow by Monday evening. The 0z Canadian has a compromise with snow to mix by Monday evening. I’m not focusing on much else beyond this period until this storm is resolved.

CTP seems interested in the Sunday chance. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

The GFS Op has been pretty useless, especially since they supposedly upgraded it a couple of months ago. Yesterday it was way west, then this morning at 6z the GFS had the Sunday/Monday low off of the DelMarVa just like the Euro has showed for the last several runs, but 12z & 18z wildly shifted way west again….0.0 consistency in the medium range!

The 12z EPS also ends well with the good look holding & colder temperatures remaining in day 15 at the end of the run.

Great run of the 12z EPS for the advertised pattern for the last week of January. The southeast ridge is pushed well off to the south & east. Temperatures look to be bit below normal for us. This has the look of systems running from the south central states to off the coast of Virginia. Hopefully we can line up some moderate snow or snow to mix events for the last week of January.

Exactly! We got out & enjoyed the day at our local park.

Makes sense…, I understand…good luck!

Lol, not according to the 12z Euro… It has been steady for the last 2 days delivering snow to most of us by next Monday.

I just reached 40 in Marysville with full sun.

Only got down to 24 in Marysville.

The 0z Euro continues to be steady by yet again tracking the Sunday pm low under PA bringing the chance for snow. Long way to go, but it’s good to see the Euro & GFS now coming to an agreement. Let’s hope that it holds and improves more this week.

The 6z GFS continued the positive trend for the Sunday pm and into Monday chance. This run the low tracks under PA and it has a rain to snow scenario.

Major change on the 0z GFS with the next Sunday event. 0z top & 18z bottom Lol, only a 4 state move east with the low…the trend is our friend.

The 0z ICON looks a lot like the 12z Euro and takes the storm next Sunday under us and along the Mid Atlantic coast bringing snow to most of us.

The V-day 07 storm was super frustrating in the Susquehanna Valley. Like you said, we waited all Winter for a major storm. The week prior, many model runs showed the Harrisburg area getting crushed with 1 to 2 feet of snow. Then, a couple of days before, the track ended up causing issues with the mid levels. We ended up getting a few inches of snow, and then about 18 hours of the heaviest sleet that I have ever experienced. It then flipped to snow on the back end and we picked up a couple of more inches. The highway shut downs were a major problem and vehicles were encased in the icy conditions. If I remember correctly it then got frigid for the week following the storm. It was a memorable event, but it was frustrating knowing that areas to the north & west got buried in heavy snow while we got the sleet fest.

The 12z EPS has good news as well with the temperatures. The above normal temperatures look to be done and workable temperatures near average are showing for the last week of the month. Average temperatures should work for frozen precip at the coldest average time of year in late January. Here are the average temperatures for the day 8-15 period from the 23rd to the 30th. This run also ends cold with below normal temperatures for us at day 15 on the 30th.

The 12z EPS has a very workable pattern for us. It’s not a major storm pattern, but I could see some light to moderate events with some snow to mix to rain scenarios. Here is the 12z EPS look at day 8 and then the 8-15 average look for the 7 day period from the 23rd to the 30th.

Update…. I did not lose any trash cans! One was displaced about 20 yards down the street, but luckily it was not gone with with wind.

I think there is a good chance for a Winter event or 2 for us before January is over.

The 12z Euro continues to look different than the other weather models for the Next Sunday night into Monday chance. The Euro depiction is exactly what we would need to have a chance with this one. The Euro is more progressive and brings the wave out quickly. The GFS & Canadian bury the energy in the south central states and delay the storm, which allows the ridge to pump in the southeast, forcing the storm to cut west. Let’s hope the old king regains his crown this time!

Good point, thanks, I’ll check the schedule. The holiday might give me 1 extra day to find the cans!