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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    Disappointment aside, the mid-state still has to keep her guard up later today.
  2. *Flash*
    Social media has been torching the NWS since this graphic released earlier this morning. Not a good day to be a local met around these parts. As a math guy, I get model deviation potential but this 50 mile shift was brutal for those expecting rain who really needed it.
  3. *Flash*
    This is the type of salty the world needs. The faint dream of flakes flying on Halloween. Hey, my first 10/31 in Tennessee as a little kid, it happened!
  4. *Flash*
    For sure! I'm glad drought-stricken areas south and west of Nash will get the brunt of the Francine's rain. I'm hopeful any areas of moderate/extreme drought will vanish by time next week's drought monitor report comes in.
  5. *Flash*
    Many people in my area are mowing their lawns on a B+ evening by early August standards. But for me? I'm waiting until Saturday to do my yard work as even cooler temps/lower dewpoints will prevail. Mother Nature will soon be on her 'A' game with respect to dog day weather and its timing. Net-wise, we've had a solid stretch since July 15 minus a few scattered sorchers.
  6. *Flash*
    I want to say that summer started hot, went cool, and then ended hot before settling into a pattern that would preview the epic winter to come. While I don't want to get lost in a 1995-96 analog, I will say what we're experiencing now has been refreshing in every sense of the word. 6-8 weeks ago, the way local conjecture sounded, I was concerned we would torch during these dog days. Instead for most of middle TN outside an UHI...we may not taste 90 the rest of the month. A remarkable stretch purely on timing alone. It currently feels more like 4/23 or 10/23 outside. Plenty of summer left but right now, it's look like a passing grade will verify.
  7. *Flash*
    Got a quick inch in under an hour earlier this afternoon. Lots of pondy roads and runoffs. Stay safe driving out if you find yourself under one of these parked cells. Slow movers today.
  8. *Flash*
    That December was brutal statewide but Jonas made up for it (at least locally) the next month when our two-week window finally opened. I remember doing some digging on this winter 8 years ago. BNA had the 27th snowiest winter during the 9th warmest winter in recorded history. Speaks to the fact that it only takes one hit to make a winter. Last year was reminiscent to this in several ways. Also, let's hope the mild early winter potential doesn't produce another severe weather episode. Forget the anomalies, that's my greatest concern.
  9. *Flash*
    Right now, SPC has a Marginal Risk for west/middle TN. As BB tweeted earlier, if we can get some instability tomorrow, the kinematics are there; however, l could see this threat going the other way and "busting" altogether. We shall see.
  10. *Flash*
    Yep. I don't know what it is about this part of Kentucky as it has seen its share of long-track, violent tornadoes in recent years.
  11. *Flash*
    Crazy to watch what's going on in west/central KY tonight. Definitely an outbreak on our hands though it seems down in TN, we'll have more CIN/weaker lift to mitigate the threat.
  12. *Flash*
    A short time lapse of the Columbia tornado I intercepted earlier today. I positioned myself a few miles south of the track...
  13. *Flash*
    For posterity...
  14. *Flash*
    SPC states the predictability is too low at this point. We shall see what happens. On a separate note, if you would have asked me one month ago March would finish 4-5° above normal with only a handful of statewide reports (3/14/24 was our only semi-active day), I would have cited nonsense. A remarkably quiet month!
  15. *Flash*
    Speak of the devil. They did it again. Another eastward shift!
  16. *Flash*
    Yeah, I knocked on wood with that post. Slight and marginal risks expanded eastward overnight. I’m not worried though, at least right now. If that slight risk encroaches into western middle, my antennas will elevate.
  17. *Flash*
    Bam Wx put out an informative long term forecast yesterday. He suspects the rapid ENSO evolution could result in a stormy April. Things look relatively tame and seasonal for most of our viewing areas until then. Of course, the same can’t be said for areas west and northwest of our state.
  18. *Flash*
    DT has been down for the past month since the consensus Feb forecast busted (understandable given his locale). His X account has been an exhibition to his spiral of late. On a separate note, I was reminded of a localized 3” snow event that took place 3/11/17 in western middle TN in the heels of a blowtorch January/February. As much as I want one last Hail Mary pass, the gut feeling is the refs are on the sidelines about to call the game. No more time on the clock for this winter though maybe for 2500’+?
  19. *Flash*
    March 2007 was very warm, akin to 2012. A year later in 2008, we had a notable snow event March 7-8. About half a foot in my current locale! One of those winters saved by the bell at the last window of opportunity.
  20. *Flash*
    Here’s rootin’ for some wintry mischief in Monterey later this month. Just need one more snow in the air moment and I’ll be good ‘til next winter.
  21. *Flash*
    Jet stream and better dynamics to our northwest. Not going to complain.
  22. *Flash*
    I brought home a new NOAA weather radio yesterday much to the joy of my now 6-year-old daughter, Evy, who has a legit storm phobia. Also picked up James Spann's Benny and Chipper book. After the 12/9/23 event*, we're going into the next season fully prepared, lol. *I kid you not: She was so impacted by the tornadoes that day, she told me just last week the date the last tornado in our county hit (I.e. 12/9/23). Apparently, she was listening in the backseat when I was livestreaming damage reports the following day.
  23. *Flash*
    A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage.
  24. *Flash*
    If the Euro Weeklies are going warm, I'm going to expect a cold snap. I believe in Murphy's capacity to thwart and troll spring breaks in our region.
  25. *Flash*
    I can appreciate this reference. Rivera's career ERA (2.21) will soon be the average snow total for most of our respective locales. P.S. It's a shame he never won a Cy Young. He deserved it in 2005.
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