*Flash*
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So by now, we all know March will come in like a lamb. The questions I'm getting from colleagues concern if we'll see severe and/or more winter weather in the near future. Oddly, while I think the lion will eventually come, I'm not seeing evidence to either apart from more heaving rain March 5-12. Personally, I would love one more winter weather event even if it means a plateau chase. Severe weather...I'm rooting for a quiet year. 2020 and 2021 have been brutal years for middle Tennessee.
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Just got home from Kingston Springs. Went from just cold rain to glazy conditions in the Bluff. Hard surfaces are pretty slick though the roads are okay. That elevation change coming up Snake Hill (popular route to Montgomery Bell State Park from the I-40 MM188 exit) is fascinating if you're into microclimatology. Note: Per NWS grids, we weren't expected to receive any freezing rain at my location so I would say this system is overperforming so far.
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12z ECMWF isn't anything to write home about. Basically, a dry NW flow with a few dusting clippers. We'd be relying on overperforming flizzards akin to last week or phasing to offset restricted moisture supply. We'll see if something trackable for next week remerges. As John recently mentioned, local climo suggests the second week of February can get interesting. Unfortunately, my gut says we're dealing with a placement with teleconnection issue as opposed to a 'models lost the system in the midrange' issue. I sure hope I'm wrong. Despite hitting double digits in total snow this winter, I wouldn't mind another hit before spring.
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Honestly, I would not have guessed BNA would be doing better snow total-wise than many along I-44 heading across I-70 into Indiana. This won't hold up...but for now, it's an interesting map in time.
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Did a lot of driving today. Only a few inches in Kingston Springs currently. 4” of snow/ice/snow at my home in White Bluff. Very cool layering! As you head down 840 towards Spring Hill, amounts pick up around MM 12 near the trace. Noticed 4-5” of snow off Carter’s Creek...and that was several hours ago. These amounts may be overalls for central/northern Hickman + southern Dickson. Southwestern Williamson down towards Lewis County did quite well. Get ready for 8-10” reports down that way. Hearing reports of 2-3” in central Williamson between 10-12 pm CT. The middle TN accumulation maps from this event will be fascinating due to elevation/warm nose/ULL proximity dichotomies. I know 95% of this forum is east TN based but figured I’d let the other 5% in on this in case they want to do some PM chasing west of 65.
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I’m concerned the precip shield will pull away before we can change back over. Will have to head down 24 to play it safe today.
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1" on the ground similar to Coach B's report. But back to a cold rain with some sleet mixing in. I hope this changes over soon before all the snow is washed away.
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I’ll cash out on that 0z 3k NAM run. Please and thank you.
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0z HRRR not terrible for I-40 but certainly continues the trend of troweling south/southeast of metro. Still a much better look than the 18z run.
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21z HRRR coming in a bit juicer. Verbatim, not a bad statewide hit.
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I'm basically screwed at my location. Question is: How far SE do I need to chase?
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OHX just issued a WSW for areas W/NW of BNA; I honestly don't understand why they went 'pink' for any county north of 40 and west of 65. Thoughts?
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At this point, I lean more HRRR/RAP than NAM. I think the NAM is undermining the digging and perhaps overdoing amounts. Hoping for a slight NW correction.
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18z HRRR probably the nail in the coffin for BNA. Will need to chase SE on this one.
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Those latest HRRR maps make me nervous for NW Middle Tennessee. Southern middle looks to score again.
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Gotcha. I’m just not seeing that when I go on their website. Still think we get a couple inches out of this.
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Not sure I follow. What stations are saying under an inch for BNA?
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As a religious man, this is my kind of porn.
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This system radiates a repositioned 2/28-3/1/09 type system. That storm was a bad dream for the metro areas of middle Tennessee. Got screwed on the pivot. Delaying excitement until WPC odds increase considerably.
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Has anyone developed a teleconnection hierarchy/checklist/diagram for what trumps what teleconnection-wise? This post makes me want to research primary pattern drivers in snowy/colder winters during the past 30 years. For instance, we've seen -NAO/-AO trump ENSO and -EPO's trump +AO/+NAO's. Part of me wonders if the seasonal theme is volatility, a highly amped pattern can lead to 'anything is possible 'results. Granted, I understand this a 2D request when reality is more 4D.
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Haven't nose-dived into recent modeling today but aerially speaking...I'm wondering since the -EPO seems to be a key teleconnection driver ATM, if the magnitude of ATL blocking can't match its PAC counterpart then waves may progress more quickly as they exit stage left. Mid TN has capitalized this month, in part, due to storm track and speed as lows pivot around those trough bases. Once the -AO/-NAO tightens up and potentially offsets a more neutral PNA, east TN should be able to benefit as the axis element adjusts. We have a mild week to milk as the deck reshuffles. Beggars can't be choosers at this latitude, but I gotta think most southern forum posters will gladly receive systems that dig a little deeper without a train to catch. The intersecting setup of PJ and STJ is a promising foundation as we don't grasp for straws on the phasing/near-phasing front. I like where we sit for the next 3-4 weeks.
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Winter Storm Garrett in 2 minutes or less... Final snow total: 5.8" (with local isolated amounts between 6.0-6.5") https://youtu.be/L9hbAbkPPA4
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About 3.5" in the Springs right now. Working on a time lapse and will share that later today/this week.
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Leaving this here for posterity/future reference. Grabbed this screenshot when driving up 65 from Spring Hill. This radar image speaks, in part, to the final local storm reports for this storm. https://www.weather.gov/ohx/24HOURSNOWFALLREPORTSASOF820AMCST
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Left Spring Hill with 2-2.5". The drive up 65 to 440 wasn't terrible; however, I got the impression TDOT wasn't fully tapping into their copious salt supply. As a former TDOT employee, the road quality tonight baffled me. Too many cars in ditches south of the 65/840 intersection.
