*Flash*
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Everything posted by *Flash*
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Haven't nose-dived into recent modeling today but aerially speaking...I'm wondering since the -EPO seems to be a key teleconnection driver ATM, if the magnitude of ATL blocking can't match its PAC counterpart then waves may progress more quickly as they exit stage left. Mid TN has capitalized this month, in part, due to storm track and speed as lows pivot around those trough bases. Once the -AO/-NAO tightens up and potentially offsets a more neutral PNA, east TN should be able to benefit as the axis element adjusts. We have a mild week to milk as the deck reshuffles. Beggars can't be choosers at this latitude, but I gotta think most southern forum posters will gladly receive systems that dig a little deeper without a train to catch. The intersecting setup of PJ and STJ is a promising foundation as we don't grasp for straws on the phasing/near-phasing front. I like where we sit for the next 3-4 weeks.
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Winter Storm Garrett in 2 minutes or less... Final snow total: 5.8" (with local isolated amounts between 6.0-6.5") https://youtu.be/L9hbAbkPPA4
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About 3.5" in the Springs right now. Working on a time lapse and will share that later today/this week.
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Leaving this here for posterity/future reference. Grabbed this screenshot when driving up 65 from Spring Hill. This radar image speaks, in part, to the final local storm reports for this storm. https://www.weather.gov/ohx/24HOURSNOWFALLREPORTSASOF820AMCST
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Left Spring Hill with 2-2.5". The drive up 65 to 440 wasn't terrible; however, I got the impression TDOT wasn't fully tapping into their copious salt supply. As a former TDOT employee, the road quality tonight baffled me. Too many cars in ditches south of the 65/840 intersection.
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Currently in Spring Hill on the Maury county side. Solid returns over 1.25–1.5”. Beautiful!
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Pure snow started in the Springs about 20-25 minutes ago. Sticking to all surfaces except the roads at this point. Temp holding between 31-32.
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That 18z NAM is rough for my area. :/ May need to chase some southeast of town with that look.
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Indeed. The sleet is starting to stick on the porch as I type this. I think if you can score some icy dbz's ahead of the snow changeover, those ground temp issues will be more marginal than initially anticipated.
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36 with 40-45 dbz's overhead.
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Sleet has started in Kingston Springs. Coming down at a healthy clip. With 4 under 6 (Granted, one is still in the NICU), I'm so glad this is all happening during the day.
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0z NAM coming in hot. I so want to believe; however, I'll keep my expectations set to the ECMWF. Crazy how many local mets refuse to acknowledge the potential.
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I haven’t felt this good feeling blue in a while. Generally, the systems that perform well are the ones that uptick their projected totals towards their impact date.
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Enhanced Severe risk and storms Dec 31,Jan1
*Flash* replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley
Indicative of a cap not yet broken...or so it sounds. You think that trend will hold? -
So basically, if the models were songs on an Adele playlist, we have the RGEM/GFS/SREF with 'Rolling in the Deep', the NAM/GEFS/ECMWF with 'Easy on Me', and a few ensemble members with 'Chasing Pavements'. Seems like the latter is the outlier at the moment. Not bad.
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Waking up this morning to another hatched tornado threat within an Enhanced Risk. *Sigh* For once, I'm fed up with having to track another severe weather threat. Per my last post, I just dodged a bullet. Looks like our RVA will have to go back to channeling our inner Neo from the Matrix. Seriously, does anyone recall the last time we had this substantial severe threat following by accumulating snows within 48 hours? FWIW, here are the SREF Plums for BNA. Coming in a bit more juicy. NWS-Nash is more bullish for the usual higher elevations east of town which to me is the sensible play at this point. Talk about 2022 coming in like a lion. Sheesh...
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I should add it almost got a lot worse on 12/11/21. See the Wolfe Road/White Bluff Road intersection? That's where I live. You'll note the Kingston Springs EF-2 started just a few tenths of a mile north of our home. This spawned from the same cell that produced the Dickson/Burns EF-1 (see green track below). We essentially thread the needle as the tornado lifted at literally the perfect mile. That freight train sound is something else!
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Thanks! Yeah, it's been a rough stretch of late between getting flooded out of house/home in October (should be back and at it next month) in tandem with our smallest Fry coming early (25 weeks) back in August. While we're no longer living at the NICU, I've needed to return to some semblance of sanity/normality. Model watching, storm tracking, forum participating with a cold pattern looming...trust me when I say this is just what the doctor ordered heading into 2022.
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Got it. I recall the over-exaggeration of QPF but the timing aspect makes sense.
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I'll just go ahead and ask. When you (or anyone) says, 'NAMing', are you referencing model bias with respective to mid-layer thermals/overdone trough amplification? Just want to make sure I follow.
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Also, I know January 2022 is NOT going to be February 2021 redux, but there's some pieces of modeling that perk my antennas in a 'Do certain patterns have recency bias?' direction. Either way, I'm more captivated by big picture trends than entertaining the plume viewers of the world right now. As John's alluded to with his stair-stepping analogy, we can't get to where we want with one leap. It's a stride, not a sprint. Accordingly, this guy's expectations will remain calibrated to synoptic over mesoscale for the time being; albeit, a few token flurries as we wait for a locked in flip would be nice.
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Getting caught up to speed here. I'm not discouraged about the -NAO/-AO progressively positively as this likely needs to happen as part of the teleconnection reshuffle at large. Plus, I gather the sudden shifts (-PNA trending positive) are more telling than the gradual ones (-NAO/-AO trending positive). Big picture, 'tis interesting to note the local effects of negative continental teleconnections when their oceanic counterparts are predominantly east-based outside the MJO. Probably wouldn't hurt for us to bookmark this setup concerning how we torch in a -AO/-NAO. Also, these thoughts are entirely raw, but part of me wonders if this first week of January will be a preview of the entire month where a modified AO/NAO signal is really more of an east coast barrier setting up/serving as a suppression block to keep our region within a favorable storm track. Hopefully, that subtropical high parks itself in a good spot for the vast majority of our state. Either way, I'm not bummed about the prospect of coastal ridging potentially creating a bowl effect for a colder central conus.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
*Flash* replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
'Tis the season to make lemonade out of lemons. This in response to my son's comment, "Dad, why doesn't it ever snow here on Christmas?" #challengeaccepted -
Last night was intense! I was out chasing between 2:45-3:30 am CT to stream this tornado as it approached my location near the Hwy 70/Kingston Springs Rd. intersection. At one point, the power (and consequently my feed) shut off. While I didn’t see the tornado, I did vehicularly experience the rapid inflow. I really had no reason being out there apart from the fact I can’t help myself. While I live in White Bluff, I’ve been residing in Kingston Springs the past few months (due to NICU proximity, our house flooded in October; it’s been a crazy year). Essentially, this EF-2 thread the 6-7 mile needle between these towns with the greatest local damage occurring in the Foggy Bottoms areas westward towards the Cheatham/Dickson county line.
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Storm time lapse from yesterday: Location: Santa Fe Time: 6:30 pm
