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Math/Met

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  1. Math/Met
    Big flakes in Greeneville right now. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/greeneville-tn/
  2. Math/Met
    I've noticed that too. It's hard to find reliable weather data for this area. The MRX weather calendar lists the following for that date. The mountain totals seem realistic, but the valley is underestimated. The UT experiment station in Greene County had archived weather data available online a few years ago. I remember seeing a hand written record from that location with 18 inches listed as the snow depth for the day after the storm. I’m sure there was some melting and compaction, so I feel really confident that many areas had around 20 inches.
  3. Math/Met
    The Northeast TN storm was 1/27/98. The January 1998 storm was discussed in the following link (it is primarily about 2009). https://www.highknoblandform.com/2010/01/mega-disaster-storm-of-december-2009.html
  4. Math/Met
    That’s how I remember it as well. I’m pretty sure that the original forecast was for a rain/snow mix changing to rain by the afternoon. It actually changed to rain in Greeneville, but it changed back to snow when the heavier precip developed. I’m not sure that the NWS was ever truly aware that such a major snowstorm was occurring. It was a fairly localized event and no social media to get reports. By the time the warnings were finally issued, we had already exceeded the totals mentioned in the warning.
  5. Math/Met
    The 98 snowstorm in NE TN was probably my favorite weather event of all time. I didn’t realize that Kingsport missed it. I know Greene County, Washington County, and other spots along the mountains got hammered. Incredible snowfall rates with that system and by far the biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen (in person or video). I really wish someone had video from that event. I’ve looked several times but never found any footage.
  6. Math/Met
    True, you don’t see a lot of lawn furniture or Christmas decorations in that area. My family learned our lesson with Christmas decorations the first year we moved to southern Greene Co. We tried to reinforce them, but it still didn’t work. I think MRX and local TV meteorologists have done a good job in recent years of explaining mountain waves. When I was a kid, people in that area just referred to it as the “south winds”. At that time, there could be 80+ mph winds in Camp Creek and there wouldn’t even be a Wind Advisory issued. It is such a localized event and there wasn't a wind tower yet, so MRX didn't even know about it.
  7. Math/Met
    I’m not a UT fan, but I was thinking about that last night. Tennessee would be a completely different team the next couple years if they had those guys from East TN. You could also add Mays (Georgia) to that list. On the bright side for you guys, I think Pruitt is a major upgrade and the state of TN seems to be producing a lot more talent these days.
  8. Math/Met
    Didn’t he grow up in the Tri-Cities area before moving to Georgia? It would have been fun to watch him play locally in high school if he would have stayed here.
  9. Math/Met
    It would be worth the trip. I was out there a few years ago when there was a 92mph gust. I wish the wind tower was there for the 2004 event, it was crazy. It had to be close to 100mph.
  10. Math/Met
    The rain moved in pretty quick tonight compared to most mountain wave events. Usually the downslope wins the battle for a longer period. Large areas of precip usually decreases MW winds significantly if it holds together.
  11. Math/Met
    I went to Camp Creek this afternoon. There was an 81mph gust just before I got there. Only gusting in the 70mph range while I was there. I'm still expecting higher gusts after dark.
  12. Math/Met
    Camp Creek is already gusting to around 72mph. That should continue to increase this evening.
  13. Math/Met
    You guys do a great job with the long range discussion. I enjoy reading your thoughts. I just wanted to give a quick update on the mountain wave event for tomorrow. I’ll post some updates in the obs tomorrow. Everything still looks on track for a significant mountain wave event. MRX issued a High Wind Warning along the mountains, which is probably the right call because winds should easily meet the criteria in several locations along the mountains. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some strong gusts in a few spots outside of the warning. For example, parts of southern Washington County can get hit pretty hard with these events too.
  14. Math/Met
    A major mountain wave event is possible for Thursday into early Friday morning for the foothills of East TN. Models are consistent with bringing a southerly 60-70+ kt LLJ across parts of TN and KY, with the strongest core of the LLJ just to the west of the mountains. This puts East TN mountains in a favorable spot. Winds below 850mb are from a southeasterly direction and that will establish the cross barrier flow within a stable boundary layer. This system and forecast soundings look like a classic set up, so I think damaging wind gusts are likely along the favored mountain and foothills locations.
  15. Math/Met
    Freezing fog has formed a thin layer of ice on cars.
  16. Math/Met
    It's doing the same in Greene Co at the moment. Quarter sized flakes. The radar looks good. The 06z NAM has this hanging around eastern areas until about 15z.
  17. Math/Met
    Congratulations to everyone who received heavy snow accumulation. I know it didn’t work out for everyone (including me), but it was an interesting system to track. There’s always something to be learned from each system. I’m hoping some of us can get a small consolation prize tonight. It looks like lift is increasing and we are starting to get better saturation in the snow growth zone.
  18. Math/Met
    I've been too focused on the current system, but you are right. The 12z GFS would have potential for a major mountain wave event with that system.
  19. Math/Met
    Euro text shows KTRI with 13.6 inches. That’s based on ratios that are around 8:1 for the majority of the storm and end around 10:1. The actual ratios would probably be a little lower than that, but I don’t have soundings to analyze. It also has the high temperature for today at 43, so we can see how that verifies this afternoon.
  20. Math/Met
    To expand on this discussion. There could be a shadowing effect right along the mountains that decreases precip. I’m not sure that it would be as expansive as some models are showing. Possibly a narrow region right along the mountains. There could also be an area just northwest of that where surface convergence would actually act to increase lift and enhance banding of precip. That’s just my thoughts. As you all are well aware, trying to predict wind flow through and over complex terrain is not easy.
  21. Math/Met
    To be honest, it does concern me that it shows up on the models. I still don’t see much of a surface response to potential downslope on the surface wind or temperature products, so it could be overdone. But models are trying to depict something happening in those areas, so it’s hard to completely dismiss that. I have a lot less experience with this type of setup compared to true downslope events.
  22. Math/Met
    0z Euro text data(from f5wx.com) for Johnson City has ratios around 8:1 with a total of 10.1 inches. KTRI and Greeneville are about 9 inches. The ratios might be slightly lower than that, but it gives you a general idea.
  23. Math/Met
    Generally 4-6 inches in NE TN based on the Euro text data. Higher totals as you get closer to the mountains. The area near the mountains where we were concerned about having downslope issues may end up being the favored spot based on that Euro run. But as John said, that run had much less precip over northern areas.
  24. Math/Met
    I’m using F5wx text output, but it looks reasonable compared to soundings.
  25. Math/Met
    Looking at the text output for the 00z FV3 at KTRI. It has .42 falling as snow with ratios about 7:1. Then another .67 with ratios increasing to around 10:1 as it moves out. That brings the total of 9.7 inches. Based on soundings, those ratios might be slightly too high but probably not too far off.
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