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Math/Met

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Everything posted by Math/Met

  1. Math/Met
    That’s my biggest issue with officiating in general. I understand that missed calls happen (the LSU/UK game is a good example) and I try not to complain about that, but there’s just no consistency in how physical they’ll let the game be played from game to game (or even from the first half to the second half).
  2. Math/Met
    As a UK fan, I was just happy how Kentucky played against UT. Finally played how fans had been expecting going into the season. They have been improving for the past several weeks, but they finally put it all together. It’s just one game though, and it means nothing if they can’t sustain that level of intensity the rest of the season. Tennessee is a much better team than they showed against UK. We all know that. I fully expect it to be a different game in Knoxville. I’m hoping for the win, but I went into the season expecting to split with UT. Rupp is a tough place to play (especially during a big game), but TBA is also tough. I know UT will be out for revenge. Regarding the refs, I don’t think anyone was more surprised by how the game was called than UK fans. We expected our big guys to have two fouls each in the first few minutes against Williams.
  3. Math/Met
    Favorable conditions for mountain waves will be in place later tonight and especially tomorrow morning. MRX issued a High Wind Warning and mentioned the potential for downed trees due to saturated ground in the AFD. It could take a few hours for mountain waves to really get going tonight/tomorrow morning. Models show a very strong temperature inversion across the mountains later tonight and the 850mb flow has a bit for of an easterly component. So, it could take until early tomorrow morning to get the proper balance between cross barrier wind speed and stability (haven’t calculated the Froude number, just basing on past experience). The cross barrier flow could be partially blocked for part of the night and could prevent the downslope flow from being sustained. After the initial round of precip lifts north, the 850mb flow becomes more southerly and the temperature profile is more conducive. That’s when the conditions become very favorable for mountain waves. This could be a strong event, which will likely cause some problems with down trees along the mountains.
  4. Math/Met
    In addition to the flooding threat, there could also be a mountain wave event Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong LLJ develops over the region with a favorable wind profile. With the saturated ground, these strong winds along the mountains could cause some problems as well.
  5. Math/Met
    That’s a good point. I usually don’t pay much attention to specific 10 day model output, but in this case it seems to be a fairly stable solution due to the features you mentioned.
  6. Math/Met
    Heavy rain still moving through East TN at 240, so those totals would likely go up if extended 6 hours.
  7. Math/Met
    Several people have mentioned their concern for flooding, and I definitely share that concern. Here’s the latest 12z Euro precip map. Still raining at 240 hours.
  8. Math/Met
    12z Euro accumulated precip. There's currently water standing in my yard...doesn't look like that will change much in the next 10 days.
  9. Math/Met
    The NCAA lost any remaining credibility with that ruling. There was a disproportionate amount of athletes in those classes. They are basically telling everyone that it’s ok to cheat, as long as other students benefit from it as well. The ruling would be different for just about any other school. UNC and Duke are apparently untouchable. I think the Corey Maggette (Duke) decision is an example of that.
  10. Math/Met
    With downslope winds, it is currently 72 degrees at Camp Creek at midnight. Amazing for this time of the year.
  11. Math/Met
    If those were from a current model run, then it would be impossible for me to sleep!
  12. Math/Met
    You can definitely see the downlope flow helping eastern areas. My thermometer is at 78 degrees currently. I’d rather have cold and snow, but it’s as perfect as you could ask for in February.
  13. Math/Met
    The Cardinals open at the Brewers on 3/28. I'm just happy that St. Louis actually spent some money this offseason. I'm not sure if I'd want to sign either of them to long term huge contracts. They are both extremely talented players, but Harper is inconsistent and Machado doesn't seem to care half the time. I'm actually a fan of Harper. I followed his career after watching him play in a youth tournament when he was 13 years old. I honestly believe he was the best youth baseball player in history. I think he could have played SEC baseball at 13 years old. He's just never been consistent with his swing, so he tends to go into very long slumps.
  14. Math/Met
    I think a lot of the problem is our expectations of how accurate a weather model should be. The advancements of modern technology have probably contributed to a lot of people expecting too much from weather models. There’s no such thing as a perfect model, especially when you are dealing with the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Computer models have improved over time, but I don’t expect any drastic changes to their accuracy in the foreseeable future. It seems to be a problem of diminishing returns. That doesn’t mean the current state of weather modeling is “bad”. As my mathematical modeling professor once told me, “there’s no such thing as a bad model”. Even the most simple weather model could provide you with useful information about the evolution of the atmosphere. That’s pretty much the best we can do for now. Using models as a guide for how the atmosphere might evolve over time and combine that with our knowledge of how the weather in this area typically behaves during various conditions. It certainly isn't perfect, but at least there is a decent level of predictability (unlike the perception that forecasts are "never right" based on social media comments). On the idea of using knowledge of our local climate, it is truly amazing how much collective knowledge this forum has about local weather patterns. I think we all have great interest in learning how the local terrain impacts our weather. I'm constantly learning something new from this forum.
  15. Math/Met
    Measured about 1.5 on the deck in Greene Co.
  16. Math/Met
    Congrats. Models generally favored that area, and it made sense based on the setup.
  17. Math/Met
    Kansas is definitely missing the inside presence of Azubuike. It didn't look like either team played particularly well, but I’m just glad UK got the win at home. Best of luck to Kansas the rest of the way.
  18. Math/Met
    Mountain waves showing up on satellite today.
  19. Math/Met
    If that one sustained wind observation is correct, that's crazy!
  20. Math/Met
    https://twitter.com/jeremyeisenzopf/status/1088113932022284296
  21. Math/Met
    It looks like a significant wind event is underway for the mountains and foothills. Camp Creek is gusting to 81mph. I saw a report that Camp Creek School is dismissing early today, but they aren’t using buses (for obvious reasons). Cove Mountain has gusted to 88mph at 10am, Edit: MRX is saying an 85mph gust was recorded at Camp Creek. I must have missed that gust. The data isn't loading properly for me.
  22. Math/Met
    That should be a great game. Of the other top programs, I actually have the most respect for Kansas. I've always liked Self. Duke and UNC are the programs that I dislike the most. It drives me crazy to see all of the bandwagon Duke “fans” in this area. The kind of people that are football fans of another program but are Duke fans in basketball. I’m sure UT fans feel the same way about all the bandwagon Alabama football fans in this area. My father and grandfather were huge Kentucky fans, so I didn't have much of a choice.
  23. Math/Met
    I agree. I’m a Kentucky fan, so I don’t enjoy saying this. I really think UT has been the best team all year. Duke is the most talented, but the experience and chemistry that UT plays with gives them the edge in my opinion. I try to be realistic when it comes to Kentucky. The first half of the season was ugly at times, but I’m starting to see signs that this Kentucky team is figuring it out. They just can't get everyone playing at a high level at the same time. UK will still have some ugly games at times the rest of the season, but I think they could make some noise in March (I hope).
  24. Math/Met
    Gusts up to 68mph so far today at Camp Creek.
  25. Math/Met
    These are the biggest flakes I’ve seen in a few years.
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