Spartman

12z GFS: 12z NAM: 12z Euro:

While on the matters of the NAM, here is the 0z:

Meanwhile on the 18z NAM....

A second overcast Thanksgiving in a row. Just like last year, but this overcast Thanksgiving had a trace of rain while last year's overcast Thanksgiving was completely dry. Since Black Friday was overcast last year as well, we may very well repeat it tomorrow at this rate.

After spending 2/3 of this month with any observed sunshine everyday and only a few days with rainfall, it has come to an end yesterday with this crappy weekend. Based on the forecasts, we may very well have to wait until after the beginning of next month for the next day with any sun. Going to be one of those weeks. Not writing off this week yet, but the final third of this month fixing to become a trainwreck. Even this Thanksgiving looks to be a repeat of last year with suicide weather.

A craptastic stretch starting this weekend. GFS is hinting a cutoff low around the middle of next week.

592 SXUS71 KILN 082204 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 504 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2020 ...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH... ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 79 MOST RECENTLY SET IN 2016. A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 75 SET IN 1945. THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO THE LATEST OBSERVATION OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF OCTOBER 31, WAS MOST RECENTLY SET IN 1950. First time we ever hit 80 in November

What about the stretch that many of us experienced this past January into the beginning of February this year or a record-long stretch that happened in late December 1991 through much of the first third of January 1992? About the latter period, Dayton was without any sun from December 28, 1991 to January 7, 1992 while Chicago was without any sun from December 29, 1991 to January 9, 1992, not to mention that the Twin Cities also was without any sun from December 26, 1991 to January 8, 1992. Overcast streaks occuring for at least 120 hours (5 days) are persistent low overcast events (PLOEs). They normally occur slightly more often than once every two years.

Another overcast Sunday. Suicide weather. Three Sundays out of four were like that this month, two with rainfall. Tomorrow will be the third overcast Monday in a row for this month. Wash, rinse, repeat. Have also yet to experience the first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze is on November 25, 1931.

We may very well be expecting another wet Halloween at this rate. Models are not only hinting tropical remnants this week, but also a cutoff low. This week looks worse than this past one.

Hit 80 again today. It is certainly going to be the final one for the year.

Gonna be that kind of week where sunshine is hard to find which is usually followed by an overcast weekend. Models are in agreement on that, as well. The GFS is even hinting a washout for the entire upcoming weekend into early next week with temps stuck in the 40s. Won't be seeing any sun until Thursday.

This week is gonna suck.

Looks like today could be the last 80-degree day until next year. With clouds already increasing by morning, get ready for Delta to be responsible for a crappy weekend.

It was the first September that DAY failed to reach 90 degrees since 2012 while it was the first September that CMH failed to reach 90 degrees since 2009.

And today was our turn. Suicide weather with wall-to-wall overcast conditions and a high of only 69 today without rain. First day with a high temperature not even reaching 70 since the end of May.

89'd today. Likely have maxed out for this month already

Not only a September ending with below-normal temperatures is overdue, but a September without a 90 is also overdue. The last time DAY went without a 90-degree day in September was in 2012. With also a wet start to the month expected, Septembers 2011 and 2012 would be matching analogs.

Made it to 91 today, the first 90-degree day in nearly a month. Have one more shot at hitting 90 again tomorrow. It's not going to be much of the heatwave that was expected this week. August 2013 seems to be a matching analog for this now.

89'd today, highest temperature for this month.

Looks like we're going to get an early Fall this year.

Heading into the long range, Indianapolis and Dayton are some of those areas that very well usher in September without any 90s this month since late July. The last time Indianapolis didn't reach 90 in August was in 2015 while the last time Dayton didn't was in 2017.