Spartman

Wonder what those NOAA forecasters think the suicide rates have been recently.

12z GFS:

Current Teleconnections: 12z GFS: 18z GFS:

Looks like we're fixing for the cloudiest stretch of the season this week, lasting at least a week, just like during the final third of last January. January 1992 certainly had one of the cloudiest starts to the month in history. Come on, 2nd half of January!

6-10 day: 8-14 day:

Narrow temperature band during the 1st third of this January. Here's to another last January.

The wet and overcast New Year's Day this year marks the start of the long crappy New Year's weekend. Suicide weather tomorrow followed by more rain Sunday. Fifty shades of January 2020 on the horizon over the next 1-2 weeks.

000 CXUS51 KILN 010551 CF6DAY PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2020 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 32 29 31 -5 34 0 0.06 1.4 2 17.7 26 270 M M 10 1 35 270 2 40 25 33 -3 32 0 0.00 0.0 2 10.7 16 260 M M 2 22 270 3 39 25 32 -3 33 0 0.00 0.0 T 8.9 15 190 M M 7 18 190 4 47 31 39 4 26 0 0.00 0.0 T 8.6 14 190 M M 5 17 200 5 41 31 36 2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.3 14 320 M M 6 1 17 360 6 37 26 32 -2 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 14 20 M M 9 16 20 7 34 30 32 -2 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.0 14 320 M M 10 17 330 8 39 24 32 -1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.1 17 200 M M 8 23 220 9 53 32 43 10 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.9 18 250 M M 4 18 23 250 10 57 29 43 10 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 13 140 M M 2 18 15 150 11 63 40 52 20 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.5 18 200 M M 6 23 210 12 62 43 53 21 12 0 0.05 0.0 0 17.1 32 230 M M 9 1 38 220 13 43 34 39 7 26 0 T 0.0 0 7.0 17 260 M M 10 22 270 14 39 22 31 0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.4 20 310 M M 8 24 300 15 37 21 29 -2 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.0 14 80 M M 7 17 100 16 34 28 31 0 34 0 0.11 1.1 T 7.2 13 100 M M 10 1 17 70 17 32 28 30 0 35 0 0.02 0.4 1 7.4 13 280 M M 10 16 15 290 18 38 26 32 2 33 0 T T 1 5.9 13 210 M M 8 18 15 160 19 42 30 36 6 29 0 0.11 0.0 0 11.4 20 190 M M 9 1 25 200 20 42 33 38 8 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 9.8 18 240 M M 9 1 22 250 21 44 35 40 10 25 0 0.04 0.0 0 13.5 24 290 M M 9 1 33 270 22 44 30 37 8 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.7 22 290 M M 7 29 300 23 56 32 44 15 21 0 T 0.0 0 16.2 30 180 M M 8 41 170 24 51 15 33 4 32 0 0.05 0.1 0 15.9 31 190 M M 10 18 42 190 25 18 14 16 -13 49 0 0.03 0.5 T 16.9 26 250 M M 9 18 32 250 26 35 14 25 -4 40 0 0.00 0.0 T 12.1 22 220 M M 4 29 230 27 52 21 37 9 28 0 T 0.0 0 13.5 32 220 M M 8 42 220 28 51 29 40 12 25 0 T 0.0 0 13.9 33 220 M M 10 44 230 29 37 20 29 1 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 21 140 M M 6 28 130 30 50 32 41 13 24 0 0.48 0.6 0 14.6 24 300 M M 9 1 31 310 31 33 25 29 1 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 8.2 16 320 M M 9 21 290 ================================================================================ SM 1322 854 920 0 0.98 4.1 330.5 M 238 ================================================================================ AV 42.6 27.5 10.7 FASTST M M 8 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 33 220 44 230 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2020 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 35.1 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.98 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.9 DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.14 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 63 ON 11 GRTST 24HR 0.48 ON 30-30 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 14 ON 26,25 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 6.5 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 1.4 ON 1- 1 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 2 ON 2, 1 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 3 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 10 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 3 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 26 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 920 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 2 DPTR FM NORMAL -128 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 12 TOTAL FM JUL 1 1797 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 17 DPTR FM NORMAL -362 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 1210 HIGHEST SLP 30.62 ON 29 DPTR FM NORMAL 319 LOWEST SLP 29.63 ON 24 [REMARKS] #FINAL-12-20# As of December 31st, current 2020-21 snowfall total is 6.5 inches. Tied for 9th driest December on record. Top 10 Driest Decembers: 1. 0.36" - 1955 2. 0.54" - 1958 3. 0.58" - 1963 4. 0.59" - 1962 5. 0.67" - 1976 6. 0.72" - 1925 6(T). 0.72" - 1913 8. 0.97" - 1930 9. 0.98" - 2020 9(T). 0.98" - 1943

Absolute trainwreck. Abandon all hope.

Remember Nuri in 2014?

Once again, another overcast Monday. Overcast every single Monday this month. Going to be one of those weeks, especially with a long crappy New Year's weekend ahead.

00z Euro and GFS runs now want to give a little snow for parts of Ohio and Indiana with the latter also giving Freezing Rain accumulation, both right before another brief blowtorch again on New Year's Day. 00z Euro: 00z GFS:

Based on this tweet, the first half of January is 100% done.

Looks like January thaw is about to be right on time. #SpringIsComing

Sounds like a repeat of January 1999 since a bulk of the snowfall on today's 18z GFS run actually takes place around New Year's Day.

While talking about January 1st, today's 18z GFS run says "Party like it's 1999." 12z Euro on the other hand: Shortly after 2021 begins:

00z GFS (snowfall mainly following around the end of December): 00z Euro:

Meanwhile, it will be a month as of next Wednesday since DAY's heaviest daily snowfall of the season (2.4") followed by its 2nd heaviest daily snowfall of the season (1.4") the day after.

While talking about tonight's 00z Euro run, though the rest of December is done: In the meantime, the AO is supposed to go near neutral for a brief period before tanking again in a matter of days from now while the NAO goes slightly positive days from now before it tanks again.

Turns out my thread name suggestion is appropriate.

Especially with the Grinch storm sweeping through tonight through the day tomorrow, it's definitely going to overcast for both Christmas Eve tomorrow and Christmas Day with the upcoming "Arctic" airmass. Definitely done with any chances for accumulating snowfall for the rest of this month.

The 18z run of the GFS is hinting at a blowtorch following the first weekend of January.

Wait until after we head into February still sitting with single-digit snowfall totals.