The 4 Seasons

euro came west, still a whiff but improved

Another Foxborough 2002 scenario?

This is still the one to watch for a poss moderate-low end warning event region wide. Maybe we can grab an inch or two on Saturday but the potential ceiling for that is extremely low. And sfc temps are very borderline in areas along the shore.

slight bump NW Besides a few GEFS members, no. AIGEFS also had a few members with bigs hits, but thats about it I'm fine with that run it actually didnt move east at all really, just weaker dynamics and didn't explode like 12Z Still 4-8 across most of CT/MA

GFS gonna disappoint in 30 minutes. I'm just hoping it doesn't go too far east and just a toned down version of 12Z. That was definitely the upper echelon wrn envelop of outcomes. If it goes back to a scraper or whiff i wouldn't be surprised but id bet money it won't look like 12Z

New York City.

We can tell. It's been an absolute brutal stretch overall since the late 2010s (17-18) and even more so the past 3 years (22-23, 23-24, 24-25). If i was in an area in an area that missed those two first snowstorms 12/14 and 12/26 or they didnt hit at all here, id feel the same. So far this winters been off to a very good start here on a B/B+ trajectory.....tbd, but snow cover, total snowfall and temps have all been good-great. Think E MA and most of the area will cash in on a sizable event for this one.

Same with the GEFS, with a slightly better look than EPS with the more DS S/W tilted a bit more negative, it has been trending better. Though the GFS/GEFS/GFS AI/GEFS AI have been the most on board with this system thus far. The member spread is consolidating a lot, though the mean snow hasnt really gone up, theres just a lot more near-misses or slight misses in there now.

why is it always the scooter shit streak

I just wanted to say one thing real quick. There is no problem. I just made an off hand - objective - comment in the beginning of this thread it wasn't antagonistic or anything, saying many got a first snowstorm already (and i include some of MA in that as 3-6" is pretty solid) and Methuen is still waiting. When you said EASTERNMASS weather, i just responded in kind joshing back with all caps. There was no hostility or ill will whatsoever. And the title can be whatever, please let's not qualify every single title with except for and not limited to or whatever. Its nbd. It's all good - trust me. I, as well, do not want to clutter up this thread and make it a dumpster fire like the last one, so let me just contribute this. Will was talking about the AI models, while they shouldn't be used soley or trusted, having them on board this time and at least trending better is a green(er) flag. Here's the last 4-5 cycles of the EC AI and GFS AI.

There's still a ways to go with this, we're not even sub 100hrs yet. It's a threat worth watching and discussing. No need to live and die by every model, every cycle and every run. That said I still think this has a way better chance and likelihood than the 1/15-16 threat that had zero support outside of some GFS op runs. For those creaming over the 12Z GFS just prepare yourself for the 18Z to come to reality a bit.

It started out as CT but i expanded it to all of SNE a couple years ago and Tri-State for the other forum.. so i dont see the problem with that

NEWENGLAND thread title...

I expect maybe a slight improvement from the 12Z euro but it wont look anything like the GFS id bet on that

poor kitty got his thread locked, don't think ive seen that happen before

Lets go. I mean we already had a legit 6+ snowstorm here but i know Methuen is still waiting.

ive been saying the same as well. Apparently warm kitty started a thread for that but i could have swore it was for 1-15/16 and he changed the title to 18/19

Euro should be good then, hopefully

Thank you, constantly being updated, worked on and improved. New Lower Northeast views being added to the historic storms section. With updated maps for each storm. Here's the original thread explaining everything -

I never could have guessed this would happen, i thought it was 100% lock! The vanishing act of clown range op runs, who could have guessed

Coincidentally, Jan 19th was the first region wide storm last season, though we're off to a much better start this one. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-19-2025

yea wow the AIGFS looks great, good trends. It's likely mostly snow, toss that look on Icon on TT. Lets just bring it back west and stronger and we can worry about thermals later. But that AIGFS is mostly snow.

i didn't realize the title said 18-19 initially this was 15-16 focused but whatever, the whole thing is a dumpster fire.

are watches up yet?