The 4 Seasons

RGEM looks like a slight tick NW but still a whiff for all of CT. We're gonna need some serious ICU support at 6Z and 12Z, though Kevin says warnings will be up for most of the region by morning so I'm not worried.

what is the next model after NAM? GEM/RGEM? when exactly do those start rolling out?

it cut back but still a good run/track. 2-4 is now focused SE you're about 2"

You know its a rough storm when the RPM, ARWs, SREFS get mentioned more than the more reliable models

Well 00Z NAM is still a complete whiff for almost all of CT save the extreme SE corner. An improvement but we need much more, another solid tick NW at 6Z and 12Z needs to happen, time is running out.

I'd be willing to bet actual real money that, that will not happen.

Weenie him up^ lol RPM coming in now, looks healthier so far

i dont know how many members there are but the ARW on TT is dry as a bone misses way SE and barely scrapes the islands with some flurries. The ARW2 is wet on the other hand, on that site.

It was before my time on here, or at least right when i started posting in late 14. I believe he changed his SN to clinch leatherwood. Never got the chance to meet or talk to him.

RIP RUC, we still have RAP to look at though, hmm no ones mentioned that..lets take a deep dive down into the rabbit hole of odd-balling models

That deep thruster must be running off of an XP zombie machine because it is painfully slow to roll out each cycle. For reference, the 18Z run is still only at hour 36 of 72. Not that it's really even meant for this type of stuff, it's a tropical model, i wonder how it's doing, skill-wise with regards to that.

Painfully close to something solid/plowable here. I will def be watching as those 00Z models roll in and fully expecting another tick/bump NW. The Reliable & Predictable Model will be the first to roll out shortly for 00Z.

Given the speed and intensity, even if we were in the meat of it, say a perfect track over ACK or something like that i think this is at best a high end adv, low end warning senario, at best. But given this winter that would be warm welcomed here. Heck, this still has the potential to be my biggest "storm" of the season so far...

very slight as far as MSLP is concerned, it's an overall better look though for sure. but the move with regards to surface was maybe a few miles. I thought the GFS was more of a solid bump NW about 20-25 miles.

i feel the same, but it usually waffles like every run, it's been consisten over the past 24 hrs of runs. But it also has no shame in the pulling the rug one or two runs before go time with a total whiff. Well see what the more reliable models have to say in a few hrs.

I'm leaning more toward yay than nay for this one for several reasons, thats one of them. I think this will likely be a 2-4 type deal for most of the state save NW corner. We're still on the fringe of a whiff so ill wait to see 00Z/6Z suite and probably do a map tomorrow if things look good or continue to improve.

sure, just for you james.

RPM with quite the smackeroooo for CT into SE MA Biggest run all day. 2-4 statewide with a small stripe of 4-6 NE CT.

Best. Winter. Ever.

It's just weak sauce. The SLP has trended weaker and its moving very fast. I mean im just going by the sfc and qpf maps with that thing though so take it as you will, i dont look at that model deeper than that, i don't think anyone does.

15Z RPM held its course. Throws snow all the way back to the hudson. Low goes inside in the BM. Around 2" for much of the state and E/SE MA

03Z RPM will probably better again, not fully out yet though

pix? what site do you use?

You mean this? I never really bought into those big numbers as the consensus was much lower and the reality of the storm as a whole. I went 2-5 across the state and 1-2 NW and we ended up with slightly less than that. I didn't feel a sting from it as i was in the 2-5 range and ended up with 3. it was actually the next calandar day for the 2nd storm. Snowed that sunday night (from early Sat morning so 36 hours in reality) into early monday morning with 3"/hr rates at times, ended up with 10-15 across a good chunk of CT

This remind me of the Mar 2nd 2019 little turd.