The 4 Seasons

RIP RUC, we still have RAP to look at though, hmm no ones mentioned that..lets take a deep dive down into the rabbit hole of odd-balling models

That deep thruster must be running off of an XP zombie machine because it is painfully slow to roll out each cycle. For reference, the 18Z run is still only at hour 36 of 72. Not that it's really even meant for this type of stuff, it's a tropical model, i wonder how it's doing, skill-wise with regards to that.

Painfully close to something solid/plowable here. I will def be watching as those 00Z models roll in and fully expecting another tick/bump NW. The Reliable & Predictable Model will be the first to roll out shortly for 00Z.

Given the speed and intensity, even if we were in the meat of it, say a perfect track over ACK or something like that i think this is at best a high end adv, low end warning senario, at best. But given this winter that would be warm welcomed here. Heck, this still has the potential to be my biggest "storm" of the season so far...

very slight as far as MSLP is concerned, it's an overall better look though for sure. but the move with regards to surface was maybe a few miles. I thought the GFS was more of a solid bump NW about 20-25 miles.

i feel the same, but it usually waffles like every run, it's been consisten over the past 24 hrs of runs. But it also has no shame in the pulling the rug one or two runs before go time with a total whiff. Well see what the more reliable models have to say in a few hrs.

I'm leaning more toward yay than nay for this one for several reasons, thats one of them. I think this will likely be a 2-4 type deal for most of the state save NW corner. We're still on the fringe of a whiff so ill wait to see 00Z/6Z suite and probably do a map tomorrow if things look good or continue to improve.

sure, just for you james.

RPM with quite the smackeroooo for CT into SE MA Biggest run all day. 2-4 statewide with a small stripe of 4-6 NE CT.

Best. Winter. Ever.

It's just weak sauce. The SLP has trended weaker and its moving very fast. I mean im just going by the sfc and qpf maps with that thing though so take it as you will, i dont look at that model deeper than that, i don't think anyone does.

15Z RPM held its course. Throws snow all the way back to the hudson. Low goes inside in the BM. Around 2" for much of the state and E/SE MA

03Z RPM will probably better again, not fully out yet though

pix? what site do you use?

You mean this? I never really bought into those big numbers as the consensus was much lower and the reality of the storm as a whole. I went 2-5 across the state and 1-2 NW and we ended up with slightly less than that. I didn't feel a sting from it as i was in the 2-5 range and ended up with 3. it was actually the next calandar day for the 2nd storm. Snowed that sunday night (from early Sat morning so 36 hours in reality) into early monday morning with 3"/hr rates at times, ended up with 10-15 across a good chunk of CT

This remind me of the Mar 2nd 2019 little turd.

From what i remember the north trend started on american models about 24-48 hrs before and become quite drastic with 12-18 hours up until start. Dont quote me on that though.

I really just use that model, if anything, for possible trends as it's the fastest model with a 60hr+ range to come out.

Euro went further east, time to start celebrating!

Time to contact the 21Z SREFS for an SOS.

If anyone is looking for the slighest bit of hope and light in this darkest of dark tunnels.... ....the 21Z RPM took quite a jog back NW

Sure, double digit deperatures aren't exactly easy, but it's possible Last 10 years JAN BDL 2019 -0.3 2018 -0.9 2017 +6.6 2016 +4.1 2015 -2.8 2014 -1.6 2013 +2.5 2012 +5.5 2011 -3.1 2010 +1.4 Ten Year Average +1.1

Def doable... BOS +13.4 ORH +11.0 BDL +12.1 ...so far

I'm gonna go with 3-6/4-8 with lollis to 10-12 isolated 16.