The 4 Seasons

Not to mention these numbers don't make sense. How can a Watch be issued when you have a 0% chance for most of the Watch area and a high end amount of 4 or 5" in CT. There has to be 50% confidence for a Watch so these maps don't add up.

I was like WTH when i woke up. And Northern Litchfield in the 5-10 range, not happening.

This is my first call. Despite me joking around about an easy forecast. This is actually one of the easier ones we've had this winter and all of last winter as well. This has prompted many to put out snowfall forecasts 3 or more days in advance. We are roughly 40hrs away from the start of the event. Models have been consistent run to run and model to model. This looks like a rather light event for most but enough to be plowed (low/mid advisory). After checking on bufkit the majority of the precip for everyone will fall as snow. The last 10-15% as rain for the southern half of CT. For the northern half the changeover will be inconsequential to snow amounts and in the NW corner they might not change over at all. Therefore, we are looking at 2-5 for most of the state. Snow growth looks decent but nothing to write home about. Somewhere around 10-12:1 average. The shoreline , west of Madison will likely be on the lower end of those numbers, in the 2-3" range and amounts increase inland. The higher end of the range will be in the northern part of the state and especially the NW corner where they are likely to remain all snow. It is not out of the question there are some 6" amounts here. The quickest changeover happens in the SE corner where i limited amounts to 1-2. This is typical climo for them and typical for this type of system. The snowfall range, should generally be read with a SE to NW gradient. If anything changes tomorrow with our 12Z/00Z suites i will update the map. P.S. NAM looks solid, ticked a bit cooler mid and low levels and bumped up qpf.

id be totally satisifed with a 4" event here on grass and roads, plows going by, wintry feel, pack stays for awhile, all good stuff.

thats reasonable call for your area.

Based on the evolution and track of this storm, i highly doubt it this time. At least anywhere in BOX or OKX zone area. Not gonna get nammed this time.

a little bullish imo.

yes -SN during the day, the meat of it falls from 5-9pm

BOX ALY OKX Maps

Wrong. Some light snow falls at day maybe. Well see if it trends that way but ECMWF is all nighttime. Starts at 4pm.

Same. Plus it will be absolutely frigid tomorrow in the 20s and near 10 tomorrow night. Which means the snow that falls this time will stick to the streets, sidewalks, driveways and anything paved. I've been gettin real tired of all the events we've had that with wet roads and driveways. Looks like this will be something to plow for once.

yeah this place is a ghost town for what could be the biggest event of the season for at least southern half of CT, RI and SE MA. Plus we got some cold air to lockin whatever falls, except for those 30s the day after, its pretty frigid.

I wouldn't mind the ICON evolution at all. Mainly all snow. 5 or so "

18Z NAM BUFKIT for WTBY. lift is kinda weak, not loving the look but its not awful either. 4.1" on straight 10:1. 5.1" on "max temp in profile" which starts out as 18:1-->10:1 at end, avg around 12:1. Still liking 2-5 for much of the state save S/SE coast. a 6 spot is not out of the question in the NW or NE hills. Ill do a first call map shortly as we are just under 48 hrs from the event. Coolwx omega profile.

18Z NAM bumped up a little bit. Stay the course

This winter is like one big 40 degree day. One of my favorite all-time weather related analogies

Yeah technically for met winter we are more than half over, so saying we are rolling into the second half or late winter isnt really innacurate.

Looks more or less the same to me. model noise.

I think someone hacked Kevin’s account. who is this reasonable man

I’d prob define it less than 5 miles in southern ct prob just 2-3 straight line as the crow flies. I’m about 10 miles from the shore and I definitely wouldn’t call that immediate shore

absolutely.

i just posted them..

12Z EPS. 24hr snow totals. Right now based on everything i think a widespread 2-4 looks likely away from the immediate coast for most of SNE. This lines up pretty well with what i would go with atm. Probably go 4-6 N & W of I90. 2-4 everywhere else S.

EPS ticked a bit colder/snowier, here are the probs for 1/3/6"

That's generally their modus operandi.