The 4 Seasons

Wrong. Some light snow falls at day maybe. Well see if it trends that way but ECMWF is all nighttime. Starts at 4pm.

Same. Plus it will be absolutely frigid tomorrow in the 20s and near 10 tomorrow night. Which means the snow that falls this time will stick to the streets, sidewalks, driveways and anything paved. I've been gettin real tired of all the events we've had that with wet roads and driveways. Looks like this will be something to plow for once.

yeah this place is a ghost town for what could be the biggest event of the season for at least southern half of CT, RI and SE MA. Plus we got some cold air to lockin whatever falls, except for those 30s the day after, its pretty frigid.

I wouldn't mind the ICON evolution at all. Mainly all snow. 5 or so "

18Z NAM BUFKIT for WTBY. lift is kinda weak, not loving the look but its not awful either. 4.1" on straight 10:1. 5.1" on "max temp in profile" which starts out as 18:1-->10:1 at end, avg around 12:1. Still liking 2-5 for much of the state save S/SE coast. a 6 spot is not out of the question in the NW or NE hills. Ill do a first call map shortly as we are just under 48 hrs from the event. Coolwx omega profile.

18Z NAM bumped up a little bit. Stay the course

This winter is like one big 40 degree day. One of my favorite all-time weather related analogies

Yeah technically for met winter we are more than half over, so saying we are rolling into the second half or late winter isnt really innacurate.

Looks more or less the same to me. model noise.

I think someone hacked Kevin’s account. who is this reasonable man

I’d prob define it less than 5 miles in southern ct prob just 2-3 straight line as the crow flies. I’m about 10 miles from the shore and I definitely wouldn’t call that immediate shore

absolutely.

i just posted them..

12Z EPS. 24hr snow totals. Right now based on everything i think a widespread 2-4 looks likely away from the immediate coast for most of SNE. This lines up pretty well with what i would go with atm. Probably go 4-6 N & W of I90. 2-4 everywhere else S.

EPS ticked a bit colder/snowier, here are the probs for 1/3/6"

That's generally their modus operandi.

OKX is extremely conservative, which i disagree with at this point. Quick burst of snow, then over to rain for everyone. Raised temps above guidance. They also feel everyone in their CWA, including CT will be below adv criteria with the only chance being Orange county.

You would be just as accurate if you took a random image in your head, drew it up with crayola and posted it on the internet.

You literally say that every single storm. With certainty, as if you know exactly what is going to happen. Last storm... "This is actually easy forecast. 2-4 from the river East with 3-6 far E CT and 4-8 from border southeast. Even ORH likely in 2-4 zone. 1-3 W CT" How did that work out? C-1 for the majority of the state. The start of this storm is literally 96hrs or 4 days out. While that is a reasonable forecast (except for probably minimum, if any ice) at this juncture, a lot can change from now to then.

i lived through the 90s

This winter really is a piece of shit and it's starting to piss me off. This next storm looks like its turning to shit and im tired of these front enders with C-1 or 1-2 that turn to mix or rain. Tired of it. Last winter was nothing but that.

He's finally breaking down. It's been a long time coming. Welcome.

NYC is doing absolutely awful so far, barely over 2", not even one good event there just all tenths adding up.

Yea i remember mentioning it, we werent able to see anything but surface really and snow maps, now they have 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 200mb levels for vorticity, rh, temp, height, it's great. Paid sites must hate this, they are going to take a hit for sure.

Pivotal adding soundings too if you click on any point. @dendrite