The 4 Seasons

That was just measuring forecast error from the NWS/NDFD to final numbers. Using a snowfall metric. If you want to talk SLP or upper level error im sure the numbers would be quite different. But yeah the snowfall FX is atrocious. 12" min Error was about 130/135mi E of where it ended up. And i do remember the models and the NWS went all in on EC/NAM. I wouldn't say they went all in on an outlier, i always thought of it as two camps really. ECMWF/NAM vs. GFS/CMC(all models). Either way they chose to ignore them completely and put 100% stock in the former.

Salty McSalterson.

Miller A

has commenced. Where is the obs thread

Icon is great, but not only do i not really trust it, its at the end of its run as well. Ens still the way to go for the next couple days but i thought id share..

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SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL 2000-01 0 0 0 T 0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0 0 0 35.0 2001-02 0 0 0 0 0 T 3.5 T T T 0 0 3.5 2002-03 0 0 0 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 0 0 49.3 2003-04 0 0 0 0 0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0 0 0 42.6 2004-05 0 0 0 0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0 0 0 41.0 2005-06 0 0 0 0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 0 0 40.0 2006-07 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 0 0 12.4 2007-08 0 0 0 0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0 0 0 11.9 2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6 2009-10 0 0 0 0 0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0 0 0 51.4 2010-11 0 0 0 0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0 0 61.9 2011-12 0 0 0 2.9 0 0 4.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.4 2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1 2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4 2014-15 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0 0 0 50.3 2015-16 0 0 0 0 0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 0 0 32.8 2016-17 0 0 0 0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0 0 0 30.2 2017-18 0 0 0 0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 0 0 40.9 2018-19 0 0 0 0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0 0 0 20.5 Red = Ratters, under 10" Blue = Good winters, 40+ers You've been spoiled, we all have, in the 2000s. So far 19-20 is at 4.8" for NYC which is already well ahead of 3.5" they got from 01-02, which was one single event every other day and month was only T.

Not worse than 01-02. Nothing will probably beat that in my lifetime.

Enjoy what you got, down here in S. CT, we are ending well below or at average at best. At least you got a major snowstorm in early Dec, near 10". 9.7 exactly. That's about my seasonal total.

At the end 60-84 it got ugly, it looked better than global guidance early on.

NAM is ugly through 84. Not that, that means much. But not a good look, H5 or surface.

TWSS.

Yeah i concur on the 18Z ECMWF, its ugly. Quite a bit N/W and warmer more liquid for SNE seems very likely past hr 90.

UGLY CT run, thought it would be better with the H5 look early on. Plenty of time to go still, id be interested in the hills of NW and NE but i think we're likely (southern half) out of the game.

i think someone hacked is account.

Here's The Demon... A good reference for surface obs, upper data, maps, radar, etc for that event. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/05-Mar-01.html

Is that a 50" isopleth in Norfolk lol.

Walt Drag is the man. He still posts in the NYC forum, in fact, for this last storm we just had.

i read it like a plea. As in, "JB, don't cancel winter!" LOL I also can't stand when people use "to" for "too"

English please.

What were some of the higest totals there? I've heard reports up to 60"

Hes got the scarlet letter, the weenie tag, with that little weenie hot dog, dog avatar. I think it automatically means hes 5PPD but im not 100% sure about that. Not banned. But still in jail. He's doing hard time, 5-10.

I think we need to start a movement. He's worn the scarlet letter long enough, years. Everyone deserves a second chance. Let him out of jail!

GEFS GEPS #FREELEO