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The 4 Seasons

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons

  1. At 12Z it was the #1 analog and at 00Z it was the #3 analog on the NAM runs and based on what i've seen with this storm and that it's pretty similar at multiple levels. I hate to say it and i know some on here will nail me to the cross for that but its hard not to see it. Not saying it plays out exactly like that but something similar wouldn't surprise me at all. East CT does great, even better than expected and a sharp cut off somewhere in central CT with low end warning snowfall gradient.
  2. Based on everything we've seen at 00Z it would be hard to believe it doesn't hold steady or tic west, but on the other hand its already so far west so i wouldnt be surprised either to see a small correction east similar to 12Z. Still got 6Z/12Z/18Z runs to get through after this.
  3. Season to date snowfall. Hopefully this doubles or more in a couple days.
  4. Thank you. Yesterday was a wild ride and emotions we're high and low. We just didn't feel confident enough to throw out numbers but we did put out our own set of probability maps for >6 and >12 similar to the NWS. Props to those who pulled the trigger on bigger numbers yesterday. Still have a lot of runs to go so we all hope it holds/trends in the right direction, im sure a few NAM curve balls will be thrown in there the next 36, and will be ignored unless one of the more reliable models (EC) shifts as well.
  5. Thats quite the bump in the qpf department past 3 runs. Banding is likely to offset that on the western edge given the mid-levels and track. Really wish we had omega and H7 frontogenesis on the euro or even better an ability to download files for BUFKIT, im sure they would be wild to see.
  6. Our first call for the event which is now less than 36 hours away. We pulled the trigger on high amounts for many of the reasons that have been mentioned endlessly on here the last 1000 pages. The 18Z GFS caving was a push we wanted to see in the right direction but can't ignore some of the red flags. It's been a frustrating hair pulling last few days to say the least. We'll issue a final call tomorrow afternoon. Been working on a brand-new graphics suite for the company. There wasn't anything wrong with the old maps, just wanted to do a fresh new and more modern look. Connecticut Tri-state area & NWS watches
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