The 4 Seasons

I factor that thinking into a lot of the maps, this one is no exception. SE CT is the worst spot for this storm, NW CT hills, the best.

NAMs a solid hit for CT. 3-5 for most. Not much change as expected.

Right and i've seen that of course. But it also makes sense weather wise, weather wiz. 2010-2011 is def OUR year for CT snow. We got 3 major snow storms in Jan alone, a pack that would like VT on a good winter and many many more events, including box day. 2010-2011 was OUR year, just like 2014-2015 was E MA year.

12Z NAM looking good so far. Looks a hair faster.

Deep Thunder & RPM for anyone who cares. RPM has been consistent for many runs with 2-4 across CT and 1-2 S coast. IBM is 4-6 most of CT, 6-8 spot W and 2-4 SE CT

I always wondered if the "2010-2011 is our year" was regarding sports or about the winter season in the Hartford area.

Which i think is a 95-99% probability. The PM shift is gonna come in and be like

6Z eps probs 1,3,6"

Using max temp in profile on BUFKIT, NAM/GFS start out high around 18:1 then they crash after a couple hours down to 12:1 then eventually 10:1, the average is right around 12:1 for the event. I don't use Cobb3 or 6 or 11 or whatever numbers that have been changing because i dont know what cobb is. Ill use max temp in profile to get an idea or use the slider for a straight 10:1 or 12:1. If anyone knows what Cobb ratio method is id be interested to hear it. (The blue line is snow ratio, the grey bars is snow falling (totals by the hour).

I'd agree with that. I used to use overlapping numbers like 1-3/2-4/3-6 but then through the years of forecasting and making verification maps it never really works out that way. So for the past 3 or 4 years ive just been going with numbers like 1-3/3-6 that butt up against each other. I think 1-3 is probably a better range than C-2 as well, as with plenty of cold air in place even the shores basement is at least 1" imo. Doubt anyone gets away with this thing with just a coating of snow, even GON.

Ah, thanks i didnt see that. What a pain in the butt to scroll through all those files though! And the GFS fronto maps dont even work, only NAM is working. ECMWF total QPF for 6Z.Some at the very end is lost to liquid for southern areas. 80-85% is frozen though. At 3Z the 925 line makes it up to 84

I used to use this site for checking F-Gen at certain levels but it seems it last ran on Dec 10th 2019. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Does anyone have anything similar to this? I would love to see some of these graphics for this storm.

Looks like only for 2/5 northern boroughs. Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island left out for now.

read the AFD

One thing that is definitely broken, without question, in those maps is the 6 -hr snow totals. If you add them up you get 12" Torrington, 11" Windsor Locks, 10" Hartford, 9" Willimantic, 11" Worcester. Huh? Even down here the numbers are around 7"

He was then USCAPEAFWEATHER broke-in, stabbed him in the eye and took over command. Then Snow88 drove up to Norwood in his cruiser and arrested him, but not before expanding the watches.

Not to mention these numbers don't make sense. How can a Watch be issued when you have a 0% chance for most of the Watch area and a high end amount of 4 or 5" in CT. There has to be 50% confidence for a Watch so these maps don't add up.

I was like WTH when i woke up. And Northern Litchfield in the 5-10 range, not happening.

This is my first call. Despite me joking around about an easy forecast. This is actually one of the easier ones we've had this winter and all of last winter as well. This has prompted many to put out snowfall forecasts 3 or more days in advance. We are roughly 40hrs away from the start of the event. Models have been consistent run to run and model to model. This looks like a rather light event for most but enough to be plowed (low/mid advisory). After checking on bufkit the majority of the precip for everyone will fall as snow. The last 10-15% as rain for the southern half of CT. For the northern half the changeover will be inconsequential to snow amounts and in the NW corner they might not change over at all. Therefore, we are looking at 2-5 for most of the state. Snow growth looks decent but nothing to write home about. Somewhere around 10-12:1 average. The shoreline , west of Madison will likely be on the lower end of those numbers, in the 2-3" range and amounts increase inland. The higher end of the range will be in the northern part of the state and especially the NW corner where they are likely to remain all snow. It is not out of the question there are some 6" amounts here. The quickest changeover happens in the SE corner where i limited amounts to 1-2. This is typical climo for them and typical for this type of system. The snowfall range, should generally be read with a SE to NW gradient. If anything changes tomorrow with our 12Z/00Z suites i will update the map. P.S. NAM looks solid, ticked a bit cooler mid and low levels and bumped up qpf.

id be totally satisifed with a 4" event here on grass and roads, plows going by, wintry feel, pack stays for awhile, all good stuff.

thats reasonable call for your area.

Based on the evolution and track of this storm, i highly doubt it this time. At least anywhere in BOX or OKX zone area. Not gonna get nammed this time.

a little bullish imo.

yes -SN during the day, the meat of it falls from 5-9pm

BOX ALY OKX Maps