The 4 Seasons

The hatred for NYC is real.

lol. I am not endorsing or supporting use MOS at this range. In fact, personally, i dont use it at all. I just saw what Jerry said and checked them out. I guess you can look at it as potential, i just found it interesting so i posted them. As far as MOS or Model Output Statstics go, they are not just gridded data of the direct OP run. They use specific airport sites past climo to massage and smooth out the output from that particular run. It is another a 'tool' for forecasters to use in determining sensible wx. However, some use it as a shortcut or cheat sheet and explicit use MOS for a forecast. In theory its supposed to be more realistic for a given site than just the pure model output itself.

Yeah the MOS #s are pretty ridiculous. Very surprised they are chucking 8s even for southern CT. Heres the 12Z run #s BDL 8+8 BDR 4+6 DXR 6+8 GON 1+4 HVN 4+6 HFD 6+8 IJD 4+8 MMK 4+8 OXC 6+8 Code: 0=0-T 1=T-2 2=2-4 4=4-6 6=6-8 8=8+

seriously? I think that goes without saying it explicitly.

This winter could go down as #2 all-time behind 01-02 if we don't receive any more snow or minimal snow. Still have plenty of time to go though so well see. At least something to rooooot! for.

New York City is a shit hole for snow, you've just been lucky in the 2000s. 15-16 would have been a winter just like this, maybe worse if it wasn't for the Jan 23rd 2016 HECS

it looks like there is a little dot of darker red over bos for 8-10 to me

Here's something for @snow88 and other NYC dwellers "What if we told you that January 2020 had more than double the amount of snow that January 2019 had in Central Park?" Jan 2019: 1.1" Jan 2020: 2.3" 209% more snow than last Jan. LOL.

Poor Ant. If things are getting really bad don't forget to call this number 1-800-273-8255 God Bless

Snow cover? Maybe for a couple hours. The one and only storm you got (and myself) was Jan 19-20th 2002 aka the Foxborough Storm. The day after was about 40F and then got into the 50s and 60s for the next several days. I'm guessing whatever snow fell overnight that night was gone by about noon the next day. It was in CT. The only season worse than 01-02 in the past 150 or so years of records in NYC is 72-73. Only 2.8" was measured that entire season. If you dont get a flake more than it might be just as bad as 01-02 for you but that season felt like no winter at all. It was warm all the time, there were never any storm threats at all to speak of. I don't think this one will end as bad as that for NYC. You've also had less going into Feb than this season, 06-07, 07-08, 94-95, 92-93 and 91-92.

Because god hates you

lol no. He def doesn't, closest he comes is not getting shot and killed.

I've been saying this over and over but a bit more liberal with timing being Thursday afternoon the start and as you said fully sampled at 00Z tomorrow night, or 00Z Friday. That is probably the definitive time to throw in the proverbial towel.

No help from the GEFS. The mean appears in about the same spot as 12Z. The member spread has tigthened up with more clustering around the mean and really no rogue few NW members like 12Z had.

Dr. Dews. Trust him...he's a doctor.

H5 is definitely encouraging and we are d3 out from the 12z runs so we have some time to improve things, we've done it with a lot less lead time than this. Only thing thats really annoying is this shit airmass.

Eps Mean Qpf def ticked back from 6Z its been steadily shaving off since 18z yesterday. The mean snow total is hilarious its about 0-1.5 for SNE. Prob because most are misses and the hits are counted as mainly rain.

You're doing pretty well 3.35"...you can almost make a snowcone with that.

Bomb threat clearout starting in 3...2...1...

This. Southern CT, RI, SE MA is going to need a perfect solution to pull a 6+ warning event.

might as well start a thread to seperate the storm discussion to general Feb discussion. 95% of the posts are about this storm alone. Just for organization sake.

Even if this comes west, still worried about ptype issues down in southern/coastal CT. It's going to have to pan out perfectly with a good track and strong slp, i.e. thread the needle to see 6"+ from this one

18Z EPS Mean QPF