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The 4 Seasons

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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons

  1. The 4 Seasons
    Last 9 runs of the GFS. Ever so slight tick of improvment qpf-wise anyways...
  2. The 4 Seasons
    theres my 8.5
  3. The 4 Seasons
    12Z GFS looks like noise more or less to me No help..
  4. The 4 Seasons
    Decided to check CIPS for sh**s & giggles... and 12/29/12 storm just happens to be the #1 analog for the 12Z NAM run, thats funny
  5. The 4 Seasons
    ICON isnt THAT bad...still throws >.5 back through most of CT RI and SE MA. Would argue for low end warning amounts still...not as good as it was 6Z and definitely ticked SE a bit. RGEM on the other hand...pretty paltry looks the HRRR is right as Coastal said.
  6. The 4 Seasons
    Interesting how each cycle one model goes one way and one another way. 6Z RGEM looks like the 12Z NAM and vise versa. Frustrating..
  7. The 4 Seasons
    I have that kind of memory as well with snow storms, probably not to that extent but i can remember every single event we got from 2000-present, what the models were doing, the forecasts, its pretty sick. 12/29 was a great system. Over peformed, models beefed up every run leading up to the event. Half daytime storm half during the evening. Most of CT got 5-10 but the best was in the east. I got 8.5"
  8. The 4 Seasons
    im down to like 3 LOL. Death valley
  9. The 4 Seasons
    H5 looks SIGNIFICANTLY better at 30/33HR.
  10. The 4 Seasons
    Latest RPM @weathafella Seems to resemble a little better look at reality for what the outcome will be than that last zonked run. 4-8" across much of the state.
  11. The 4 Seasons
    The NAM has been quite bi-polar over the last 8-cycles. Back and forth we go.
  12. The 4 Seasons
    Even with the SE 6Z NAM with very paltry qpf outcome 600-800 avgd F-GEN would put some good banding into CT and E MA, NW of the best fronto. Those qpf amounts dont really match whats going on with mid levels on the NAM. We're waiting for the 12Z cycle to come out then going to put out a map but leaning toward a 4-8 or possibly 6-10 type event for most of CT.
  13. The 4 Seasons
    Its a tick SE but doesnt look like anything major. Hopefully just an off-hour blip. Would like to see some consensus with 12Z runs today.
  14. The 4 Seasons
    HRDPS also NW, no surprise
  15. The 4 Seasons
    Last RPM Run for @weathafella
  16. The 4 Seasons
    6z GEM also came back NW/stronger. Wish the GFS16 didn't go down again but what can ya do
  17. The 4 Seasons
    RGEM with a solid bump NW and GFS ticks SE. Doesn't seem to be any real trend amongst models.
  18. The 4 Seasons
    Icon holding steady, if anything bumped NW at 6Z. And the crazy RPM not backing down. Still feel strongly about a widespread warning event across SNE. Expect those NAM runs to be a hard over-correction and come back at 12/18 today. The HREF distribution seems reasonable to me atm.
  19. The 4 Seasons
    Watches/warnings will be up statewide. BOX expanded across the region and went with warnings for SE MA.
  20. The 4 Seasons
    12K and 3K backed wayyy off. Seems the SLP isnt nearly as strong, almost 6-8mb weaker on the 3K in response to the H5 SW flattening out a bit compared to previous runs.
  21. The 4 Seasons
    00Z EPS Solid improvement. Still showing a lot of members to the NW of the mean.
  22. The 4 Seasons
    You can always go up
  23. The 4 Seasons
    Run-to-run qpf trend. I'd say the overall look is better everywhere, solid improvement at 12Z for the Euro.
  24. The 4 Seasons
    Nice solid bump W at 54/60. Not gonna be huge across the board but as expected its better
  25. The 4 Seasons
    S/W digging more, more of a neg tilt at 36. Coming NW 4 sho.
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