thunderbolt

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 0Z Euro/CMC is a good bit colder than the torchy 0Z GFS in the SE in the 7-10 day, especially up at 850 mb. Also, the 0Z UKMET at day 7 is more similar to the Euro/CMC than the GFS. The 0Z Euro changed quite a bit late in the run. But that's the nature of operational volatility especially after day 7. So, lots of uncertainty coming towards next weekend.

Rule of thumb that I like to use in the 7 to 10 day range is used the Ensamble’s Usually the operational is usually very volatile even the euro for that matter after seven days

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Difference between GEFS & GEPS pretty large @ Day 10-11


.

In what way

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Models showing almost no precip for tonight in my area, and no front end thump for the weekend storm. 

Looking like a shutout so far, and may end up that way this year.

Smart thing to do is take up another hobby, at least until the next el nino, and even that isn’t a guarantee (see: 97-98)

Specially if it’s very strong like 97/98 Now if it’s a moderate one Like 2009 2010 that could be a different story as we all know

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Scary at Buffalo game.

 

CPR in progress

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

lol, I've felt your pain down their for a few decades. Reason why it prompted me to move among other reasons. 

Nice brother enjoy it 

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

 

Geez you don’t have to rub it in lol we had a few snowflakes down here in Langhorne pa

2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

had 38.9 from this event. Basically snowed for 96hrs straight. Brunt of it though was christmas into Boxing Day morning. Up to 117.2" on the year

Geez you don’t have to rub it in We had a few snowflakes down here in Langhorne

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Damn is that your house

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We're over 40" here storm total. This is from Clarence.

And just think Us in the mid Atlantic would be happy with just 2 inches we would be doing backflips

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What makes this especially dangerous is all the power outages.  If you don't have a generator and you try to get to somewhere warm, there's a real possibility of getting stuck.

And to add to this how about the frozen pipes no power no heat equals frozen pipes 

2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today

It might not settle down until WednesdayIt 

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Euro time, anyone want to guess where it’s gonna go? I’m thinking we see a low in Nebraska tonight, but could see it in Wisconsin or Chicago as well.

Just east of Chicago

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oz models across the board made significant improvements for the Dec 22-23 system. Still have a ways to go....too long if you ask me, but we have a unanimous signal for a potential storm across all guidance now...thats what we should be focused on at this point. Sharing these from another sub...thanks @Weather Will

 

Well said at this point I would just Ride the ensembles till at least maybe 12 Z on    Sunday

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Im in a much better spot then orchard park for this event. 

Hey buffalo just for curiosity how does this compare to the 2014 event ?

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

The cold next week was extremely well telegraphed a few weeks out

Really

9 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

What is the point of your posts? I do enjoy weather. Why can't you?

I am enjoying the weather I’m out golfing can you comprehend what I said I guess not

56 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It's not, but are you going to cry if I've already doubled your total for the year? I mean, you're seeing record heat and late season tropical activity. You can make the case you guys haven't even entered Fall yet, it's more of a September pattern. If I saw a path to decent snows for the area, I'd mention it. Last year at this time I pointed out that 150+ ACE seasons are often (50/50) good for your area, and then DC got 13 inches of snow - near average. So it's not like I'm incapable of seeing good outcomes for you, I know that's hard to understand, but there are actual long-range indicators that work for snow in various areas of the US. You're just too lazy to bother investigating any of them.

It’s OK I’m sure if there were cities on the East Coast at 5000 feet altitude be a lot different story but oh well it is what it is I’m enjoying the warm weather out golfing and you enjoy your Dustings

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I have some research on what the most active Novembers in the Atlantic correlate to later in the season. But have to see if the system shown on the models blows up as hits Florida as I suspect it will.

I was expecting about 10 ACE for November, but we'll probably get to 15-20, since we're near 6-7 so far I believe. Over 25 in November is vanishingly rare, so I do think this little burst of activity is the end of it.

I'm a bit jealous of the eastern warmth - we haven't been in the mid/upper 70s here in close to three weeks already. Have already had to clean off snow on my car twice. Not a fan of dewpoints in the 60s though.

 

I guess you reached your total in Albuquerque Already

18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

To me the debate has not been clearly resolved as to does the weather cause indexes or do  the indexes cause weather?

I think this winter is going to be counter to what the indexes are indicating.

I think it’s a battle between what indexes are indicating versus what analogs are foretelling. 

 

Chicken or the egg?

8 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Agree.  Great golfing weather.  Although I lost about 15 yards going from hot and humid to cooler and dry

My problem is the leaves falling when your ball ends up in the woods it’s a lot harder to find

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The projected RNA/-PNA is probably real this time, gaining more support 

 

And 

3 hours ago, floridapirate said:

Time to start reading the annual predictions of a historically cold and snowy winter.  

Tell me about just like All the hyperactive predictions for hurricane season

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The overwhelming majority of the time it has been very positive since August, minus a few very few brief bouts of negative 

Well the way you applied it it’s never been negative it’s always been positive

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August 

 

What do you mean the first time in months it was just negative back in September Unless I’m reading the chart wrong

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO and NAO are different indices. There can be cases where they are in different states. Wave lengths are still relatively short, so the influence of the AO+ has been offset.

Thank you