thunderbolt

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

You may get more than 35", I'm just trying to point out that Ray had 80-90" for Boston, and 14/16 low-solar El Nino winters have under 45" in Boston.
 

 

Okay now you're saying 45 as the high-end again good luck no disrespect but I'm putting all my chips in Rays corner

Let me understand this correctly what you're saying is 35 in for Boston is that correct if that's the case good luck

Check out MWObservatory (@MWObs): https://twitter.com/MWObs?s=09

On Tue Nov 13 2018 at 1:09 AM, raindancewx said:

Just seven hours til sunrise!

Look at the elevation no wonder it's so cold

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here are the El Ninos with less than 50 sunspots annualized from July-June in Boston, Oct-May basis back to 1892 for Boston:

1897-05-31

43.2

0

1901-05-31

17.5

0

1903-05-31

42.0

0

1914-05-31	39.0	1
1915-05-31	22.3	0

1924-05-31

29.8

1

1931-05-31

40.8

0

1954-05-31

23.6

0

1964-05-31

63.0

0

1966-05-31

44.1

0

1977-05-31

58.5

0

1987-05-31

42.5

0

1995-05-31

14.9

0

2007-05-31

17.1

0

2010-05-31

35.7

0

15 low-solar Ninos in 120 years, centered on 1948. Trend in snow is up since then, so you'd add maybe 15" to the mean of 35". Out of the 128 years on record for Boston, you have one top 20-year for snowfall in a low-solar El Nino. 1900, 1994, 2006 are bottom 20. Only two of the years are meaningfully above average. I'll take my chances with below normal.

Yo dude let's cut to the chase how many inches of snow is Boston New York Philly and DC supposed to get this winter thank you  no one really gives a **** about the temperature it's all about the snow

12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The UKMet forecast looks like it has warmed up a bit nationally, and dried out for the NE?

Let me ask you a question do you think Philadelphia will have above-average snowfall for for the 2018/19     22 is the average

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My main issue with 1957 as an analog is you had near record solar activity that year, near 300 on an annualized basis from July 1957 to June 1958. So if solar means anything, some kind of different outcome would be expected. Obviously it is running much warmer than the blend in the NE as of right now too.

I've looked at solar effects by elevation and ENSO in the West, and it seems like the primary effect is on temperature in winter/summer, and on precipitation in fall/spring. March in the SW is kind of flaky for snow, but high solar does seem to be almost a pre-requisite for Albuquerque to get heavy snow in March.

I just looked at Philadelphia snow in El Nino by solar conditions - no correlation. So maybe watch early December? I have a hunch that a blend of 1986/1994/2006 will show up as the Dec pattern though.

So those 3 years 86 94  2006 are those your analog years for the winter 2018/19

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Fox 45 has been live off and on on their Facebook page.

Thank you fellas

Is there any news stations covering this live

Oh, the old John Bolaris storm, the storm that caused a mayhem