thunderbolt

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

ENSO 1+2 has risen to its highest value to date on the UK OSTIA data (+3.07).  There are some ongoing westerly wind anomalies in the E Pac so we may see some more warming in that region.

ENSO questions as we move into Fall and Winter:

1) Will the E Pac SST warmth hang on thru winter?

2) How warm does NIno 3.4 get late fall into winter? 

3) Will we see a strongly positive +IOD in the fall / or only slightly positive?

4) How will 1, 2, and 3 affect the location and strength of the low frequency Walker cell uplift & subsidence regions and associated convection?

 

 

All great questions

Monday 

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS has been trying and failing miserably to weaken regions 3 and 1+2 since the end of April. The forecasts support regions 1+2 and 3 warming even more going into July

You know what else is been failing miserably is the Bom for region 3.4. It’s bin horrible. From back in April to the beginning of July but we’ll see at the end of when it peaks What models did the best as we look back

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS has been trying and failing miserably to weaken regions 3 and 1+2 since the end of April. The forecasts support regions 1+2 and 3 warming even more going into July

I guess we’ll see when it comes to October 

Just now, thunderbolt said:

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

NAM Nest coming in aggressive tonight with a solid batch of 1"+ rain Wednesday afternoon and evening.

NAM nest ?

I smell a fish

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Anything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting

I believe the consensus is, it’s going to be a basin wide not East base or Modoki but like you said anything is possible

9 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Holy cow. My wife opened the patio door for two seconds and now the house smells like a campfire. That's just insane.

Friend of mine works for Bucks County communications he’s getting inundated with 911 calls because of the smoke

14 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

As 3/4 goes up 1/2 comes down.

As 3/4 goes up 1/2 comes down.

Still dropping

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Since I assume climate models change (are tweaked, adjusted, what have you) in 8 years, a warm bias from 2015 may not still exist now.

Except for this year 

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So it was off by 0.6….

So you’re saying .6 is nothing got it 

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Up until this year, the POAMA did not have a warm bias unlike some other models

Back in 2015 it’s May prediction it had June said it 1.8 in reality it ended up at 1.2

2 hours ago, George001 said:

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc. 

2 hours ago, George001 said:

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc. 

Speaking of the SOI 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, I believe there is a lag effect with the SOI

Speaking of lag affect is it one month or two months before you would see the effects in the atmosphere or does it depend on the strength if it’s stronger will happen faster if it’s weaker will happen later?

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think basin-wide is the most likely outcome for winter.

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Saying "potentially significant" is vague. Not only in using the word "potentially", but also the word "significant". One can argue that even just a moderate El Niño could be considered significant. One definition of significant is "likely to have influence or effect". A moderate El Niño is typically strong enough to have influence or effect. Most of us have known for quite some time that a moderate or stronger El Niño is likely on the way.

Well said GA

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t ever see this….NOAA giving 94% odds of a very significant El Niño event this fall and early winter….

Keyword potentially