thunderbolt

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not doing play by play, but the Euro is relatively robust for the disturbance even at 24h.

Maybe you should do play-by-play and get yourself ready for a nor’easter coming up the coast 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You serious?

I should’ve been more clear for those who were calling for a hyper active season ya they should be looking for the white flagI 

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Nothing screams "flipping the switch" like a TUTT on roids and dry air from the subtropics getting injected into the MDR. 

 

Yep two week lows  out in the middle of the Atlantic I wonder when people start waving the white flag

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the past when that was the case, people just said that. You would also think maybe his blog would go paywall for something, but just abandoned. 

Strange.

But I do look forward to your winter analysis coming up

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was wondering if he took the reduced level of that success with that last forecast to heart and became frustrated.

I really don’t know He never really chimed in when there were storms approaching hopefully he’s OK then again maybe he got offered a paying job and can’t really talk about his thoughts anymore

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

His last prediction was actually pretty flawed...he had very +NAO for 2020-2021 and it was negative.

Keyword (usually)I know he’s a very big critic on himself when it comes to grading 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

19 pages of silence and counting....anyone here think Isotherm left because he was hazed or because perhaps his work got noticed and he's now getting paid....just sayin....carry on with the silence.

I said the same thing last year around November where was his winter outlook it was silence I don’t think anybody was critical of him he’s was usually spot on with his  predictions that he made hopefully he’ll do one this upcoming winter

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone else notice how lackluster the ECMWF is with la nina, and how quickly it models its demise this winter? Has it at peak now, and weakens it to cool-neutral territory by December.

It makes sense to me given what I read regarding the lack of connection between the IOD and late developing, or year long stagnant ENSO events.

What would be the implications if this were to take place for the winter At least according to the Euro model

56 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

That's just an ugly trend for the hyped wave coming off of Africa. At least our lemon in the MDR is looking marginally more robust

The only thing ugly about the 0zGFS is for the fish in the Atlantic

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Oh look, the operational GFS trended even weaker with both waves and pushed the timeframe of the actual TC back. What a surprise...

Feels like mid-July

I do believe the 18 Z had a stronger storm than the 12z but I could be wrong When all said and done 

5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I don't really think it's appropriate to look at specifics over 240 hours besides the pattern and the fact a storm may/may not develop. Shouldn't get named storms comparisons at this stage at all, unless it's referring to a pattern analog. 

Besides that, something that has seemingly slipped under the radar (haha nice pun), GFS has been showing development in the GOM for the past 5ish runs, and has some ensemble support. Euro hasn't been showing anything, and CMC has been showing a little bit of development. Something to watch imo

The people commenting on a 240 GFS or euro for that matter are smart enough to realize it’s fantasy they’re just looking at what the model is showing

I found this tweet very interesting

You know what else is  Kind of odd is that there’s no storms in the western Pacific eastern Pacific Atlantic golf nowhere to be found all is quiet All the basins are Crickets

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We would probably want  the low to close off sooner and the trough take on more of neutral to negative tilt for the heavier rains to come further west. 

Those  Miller Bs always get us here in Philly lol

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

In his defense, a “pro” met (I won’t mention JB’s name) has been predicting a Modoki El Niño for the past 2 years in a row. This year, he got the Modoki part right but it’s just not an El Niño

This is not about JB

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it: 

 

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

yesterday at 10 AM vs today

 

0 AM Fry up

 

ACY: 91
JFK: 91
PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 90
EWR: 89
BLM: 89
TEB: 88
ISP: 87
TTN: 87
LGA: 86
NYC: 84

I like how you compare apples to apples time Wise 

98 Langhorne PA

97 temp

Langhorne PA temp 94 dewpoint  73

32 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I generally agree. The GFS and even the ensembles have been all over the place one run cooler one run hotter back and forth and continue to be. The Euro has been more consistent and accurate. I think this weekend will be increasingly muggy leading into some hot weather next week and that the first heatwave for NYC probably occurs next week. 

WX/PT

You could probably throw in chances of  some storms with the instability there too

38 minutes ago, high risk said:

  Things continue to look active for the late afternoon / early evening period.    SPC has added an ENH to the DC-Baltimore corridor.

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Do you guys have access to the QBO forecast projections? Just read a tweet saying models are showing it getting very strongly positive come winter. Thank you in advance 

Of course a strengthen stratosphere