To be honest, I've seen local mets in the Triad area say as much, more or less. They put out predictions, but have been saying that it could be much lower or higher for various reasons.
I live in SW Winston-Salem. I think Brad's map makes sense, even though I hope to get much more. Honestly, I've been trying to keep expectations for my backyard at 1". I think dry slots will get me.
Remember that the image contains the forecasts from various forecast offices, not just one, hence weirdness around the boundaries of County Warning Areas (CWAs).
I think this is key. When we point to winter events from 30+ years ago as an example that such a storm could occur in our region, we're sidestepping the fact that we don't live in the climate from way back then anymore.
I wonder though how much warmer Atlantic SST actually help for snowstorms south of northern and central VA.
Our forecast tools are much better now than during the time periods you mentioned.
Finished with 0.5" in SW Winston-Salem. I was basically expecting zip, so I'm glad I got to see some more snow. Congrats to all y'all south and east seeing much more than y'all typically do!
Here in SW Winston-Salem, just south of 40, while we did dip below freezing last night, it wasn’t enough to cause issues. Everything here was just wet with no noticeable ice on trees or surfaces.