knowledgeispwr

I think this is key. When we point to winter events from 30+ years ago as an example that such a storm could occur in our region, we're sidestepping the fact that we don't live in the climate from way back then anymore.

I wonder though how much warmer Atlantic SST actually help for snowstorms south of northern and central VA. Our forecast tools are much better now than during the time periods you mentioned.

The climate trends our not our friends for those us east of the high terrain. Fingers crossed though!

~0.75” 5.8 SW of Winston-Salem city center.

Finished with 0.5" in SW Winston-Salem. I was basically expecting zip, so I'm glad I got to see some more snow. Congrats to all y'all south and east seeing much more than y'all typically do!

3.5" of snow and sleet in SW Winston-Salem. Currently some very light freezing drizzle. 27.5F

22.8F, very blustery, ~2" of dense sleet and snow in SW Winston-Salem.

21.7/18.2 now almost all sleet. SW Winston-Salem. ~1.5" of snow before the changeover.

22.1/18.8, Mod-heavy snow...SW Winston-Salem

32.9/17.2 SW Winston-Salem

Almost 3” in SW Winston-Salem. Still snowing heavily.

That and the soil in most places is very saturated.

Here in SW Winston-Salem, just south of 40, while we did dip below freezing last night, it wasn’t enough to cause issues. Everything here was just wet with no noticeable ice on trees or surfaces.

Charlotte reported a gust to 58mph at 9:25am.

Euro gust maps tend to be quite overdone. Is the same true for GFS ones?

I've gotten 0.64" so far from this first rain band here in SW Winston-Salem. I got 0.21" early this morning from precip associated with the front.

2.09" event total so far in SW Winston-Salem.

In southwest Winston-Salem, 0.75” so far this morning, 6.85” for February and 12.51” for the year so far.

Storm total rain for southwest Winston-Salem: 4.77”. Wow. And a wind advisory issued. A gust of 53 mph was recently measured at PTI: Wind AdvisoryURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Raleigh NC443 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020...Unusually strong, high impact wind event expected acrosscentral NC early today....A rapidly strengthening area of low pressure will tracknortheastward across the middle Atlantic states today. A trailingcold front will sweep east across central NC this morning, withfollowing very strong southwesterly wind that will overspread theregion.NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-072100-/O.CON.KRAH.WI.Y.0001.200207T1000Z-200207T2100Z/Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson,Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield,Scotland Neck, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington,Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham,Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope,Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Lexington, Thomasville,Asheboro, Archdale, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex,Wake Forest, Knightdale, Smithfield, Selma, Clayton, Wilson,Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage,Sanford, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, Goldsboro,Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Ellerbe, Laurinburg,Camp Mackall, Wagram, Raeford, Fayetteville, Spring Lake,Hope Mills, Clinton, and Roseboro443 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THISAFTERNOON...* WHAT...Winds will become southwesterly and increase to between 15 and 30 mph, with frequent gusts between 35 and 45 mph. Infrequent gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible, especially across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, from Laurinburg to Fayetteville to Goldsboro and Rocky Mount.* WHERE...All of central North Carolina.* WHEN...The Advisory is in effect from 5 AM to 4 PM EST today. The strongest wind will occur between 6 or 7 AM and noon or 1 PM.* IMPACTS...Significant tree damage, including falling limbs and branches, and scattered to numerous uprooted trees, will result, as will numerous power outages.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Given that this is expected to be an unusually strong wind event, and soil is saturated from multiple inches of soaking rain during the past 48 hours, scattered to numerous uprooted trees may result.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Travel and outdoor activities are strongly discouraged thismorning due to the strong wind gusts and increased risk of treedamage.&&

I wonder when was the last time there was such a wide spread severe weather AND flooding event during the winter months in the southeast. 4.32” storm total for southwest Winston-Salem.

I also noticed the forward progression has really slowed based on the radar. Storm total 3.81” in southwest Winston-Salem.

Storm total 3.56” in SW Winston-Salem and still getting rumbles of thunder.

Moderate sleet shower in SW Winston. 38.5F/24.2F (KINT reported a dewpoint of 18F at 2:54 according to the NWS).

Sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Mixed bag of precip here in SW Winston-Salem. We've had a snow/sleet mix, then sleet, then a rain/sleet mix, now it appears to be some sleet with a few flakes mixed it.