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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    Model grab bag. JMA total precip (looking very good!) 12z ARPEGE (JUICY!!!) ACCESS-G shows about 0.25 to 0.35 in liquid equivalent, tough to tell with this scale. And of course the UM(mmmmm) model is the driest. does UM have a dry bias? we'll see 557ww model...well...it doesn't have many good parameters other than 700mb RH and that looks north throughout the event, including at 00z on saturday. Though this is the 00z run of 557ww. so take it with a grain of salt until the 557ww computer processes the new 12z data. And last but not least is the RHMC model, which I assume stands for Ronald McDonald House Charities. Looks like widespread.....1 and 2 throughout the forum.
  2. paulythegun
    Hahaha this should be a running joke for now on
  3. paulythegun
  4. paulythegun
  5. paulythegun
    For me, the Jan 2000 surprise storm led to over 2 decades of radar hallucinations. Still, no regrets.
  6. paulythegun
    I was mourning the loss of the squall line tomorrow in my own bitter, bitter way. carry on all! I’ll keep my whining to the panic room. Squall lines are fun though!
  7. paulythegun
    We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall.
  8. paulythegun
  9. paulythegun
    15z SREF snow mean
  10. paulythegun
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1746026409972183193?s=46
  11. paulythegun
    What is the precedent for deleting a thread?
  12. paulythegun
  13. paulythegun
    18z RGEX XR looks pretty great. Hold onto hope folks!
  14. paulythegun
    The 557ww model also out to sea, though it looks abit closer to the coast than 12z UM, ACCESS-G, and GEOS-5. Reminds me more of the look on 12z ARPEGE
  15. paulythegun
    GEOS-5 (12z) also basically out to sea, joining the ACCESS-G, SPIRE, UM(mmmmmmmmmmmm) models
  16. paulythegun
    hisorically, this has been typical during the ukmet/ecmwf lag between noon and 1pm. unfortunately, CRAS has been discontinued.
  17. paulythegun
    Ummmm.....the UM model is in. Also inland, like ACCESS-G.
  18. paulythegun
    ACCESS-G is WAYYY inland. TOSS!
  19. paulythegun
    ARPEGE looking good!
  20. paulythegun
    Helpful link for everyone:
  21. paulythegun
    The spire model looks like the euro too
  22. paulythegun
    slight NW trend, more intense
  23. paulythegun
    The TPV lobe is way further north on this run (compared to the bad 12z euro run). Good!
  24. paulythegun
    Generally speaking, you don't want to see the confluence setup OVER WASHINGTON DC
  25. paulythegun
    Haha I hope this trends toward the tpv phasing with the trailing energy
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