chubbs

Matches up with re-analysis data indicating a roughly 9-month warming period now, despite the nina. Wondering if this is recovery from the Australian fire aerosol. In any case, the next nino is going to find an atmosphere that can hold more heat than 2016.

Made an attempt to check how the recent past has tracked the paper findings. Below is 2011-2021 against a 1981-2010 normal, i.e the last ten years vs the previous 30. The AMOC signal can be seen but the cooling center is SE of Greenland and S of Iceland and heights have tended to rise recently near Greenland. Also visible is broad global warming, and a nina signal in the Pacific. The nina signal is not surprising considering enso decade trends since 1980. Guess one message is be careful analyzing regional circulation trends.

There is going to be pain. That's the nature of fossil fuels, particularly oil. A commodity based on a resource that depletes. New field/wells are constantly needed to maintain current production. Now we are chasing oil sands, deep offshore, fracking etc. These are all expensive and need ongoing large investment just to maintain current production. Fracking is particularly problematic from a boom/bust standpoint, because individual wells deplete rapidly. Our current pain started in the pandemic when oil prices crashed, causing investment to slow. US oil production dropped giving OPEC more pricing power. At that point an oil shortage and price increase was inevitable. Putin is taking advantage of the commodity cycle just like Middle East oil barons did 50 years ago. Nothing new. Too late to impact this crisis, but we could minimize the next. The resource base for renewables is larger than fossil fuels and more evenly distributed. Solar and wind are mass produced in automated factories. They can ramp quickly, doubling every 2-4 years recently. Renewables and EV have finally reached the scale where one or two more doublings will have a big impact in reducing fossil fuel demand. Yes, a transition will take time, money and innovation. Target the bad actors from a geopolitical, economic and climate standpoint first. A transition is going to happen anyway, as renewable, EV +storage economics are outpacing fossil/combustion. Just a matter of whether its fast enough and targeted properly to minimize future geopolitical, economic, and/or climate pain.

US gulf coast from Miss to Key West. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/sea-level-rise-30-year-forecasts-from-noaa/

As the satellite sea level record lengthens it becomes easier to see acceleration. Nina can slow and even briefly reverse sea level rise - 2010/11 a good example. No slowdown visible in this nina, though

Remember when that came out. Hard to believe it is still quoted, but I've learned to never underestimate confirmation bias.

There is a double whammy as aerosol emissions decrease in China and other developing countries, which also increases forcing. The good news: methane emission reductions would have a rapid impact due short lifetime. We should be using methane reductions to offset the forcing boost from reduced aerosols.

Per the video, a freight train is a better analogy. Pulling away from the station currently. Unfortunately, we spend too much time in the caboose looking backwards.

Wind generation in Texas is soaring as a winter storm whips the state, adding an unexpected surge of electric supply as the bitter cold drives up demand on the state’s power grid. Wind farms were producing about 17.5 gigawatts at 9:55 a.m. local time, 85% higher than the day-ahead forecast, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot as the grid operator is known. Wind is accounting for about 30% of the grid’s electricity supply. A gigawatt is enough to power about 200,000 Texas homes. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wind-gives-unexpected-boost-texas-165429559.html

Its not the heat, its the humidity. Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies. https://www.pnas.org/content/119/6/e2117832119

Not good when back-to-back moderate ninas barely get you to the trendline, after 40+ years of warming.

You are covering a lot of bases. Not aware of any new feedbacks. Snow/ice feedback is well understood. You may be confusing impacts, tipping points and feedbacks. Can you provide references? As far as the future. Warming is directly related to CO2 emissions. The more we emit the more we warm. Irreversible for tens of thousands of year, unless we remove CO2 from the atmosphere, which won't be cheap or easy. So yes we will be dealing with AGW for a long time, but the amount of warming is up to us. We are far from helpless, shortsighted yes, helpless no.

The feedbacks impacting temperature aren't changing significantly. Higher global temperature or ocean heat content generally means higher forcing from greenhouse gases.

The nina is holding surface temps down, but the overall warming trend is strong.

Long but good video, providing background on: Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections. Tl:DR - IPCC is probably a best case scenario

Doesn't look great to me. Very unscientific analysis - the trend since 2004 is much more uncertain than the trend since 1979; and doesn't look negligble either. Note that volume anomaly is higher in winter.

I haven't seen any studies on local storm tracks. But have seen enough Monmouth County jackpots to know that warming alone doesn't explain our local patterns.

More the difference between State College and phl/nyc/bos, I95 vs interior.

Interesting. Below are snow trends since 1940 for some eastern cities that I have been tracking. My tabulation agrees with the chart above. I95 cities from Philly to Boston are doing well. Other northeast is mixed. Cities south of philly are down. My take - warming is reducing the opportunity for snow, but increasing moisture and/or storm track shifts are offsetting in some areas.

Believe he is taking a temperature reconstruction, which comes from tree rings and a number of other sources, and putting it in tree ring format. Below is the latest - going back 24,000 years. Note chart below is global, while chart above is northern Hemi.

This is a good argument to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels. The fossil fuels of the past 100 years are not the same as the ones that are left. The giant oil/gas fields we have been using are increasingly depleted. We have an "energy" crisis because fossil fuels deplete making the supply unreliable without ongoing investment. The oil industry cut investment as prices plunged in early 2020 and now we are short on supply, even though global oil demand still lags the pre-covid peak. Its the classic boom/bust oil and gas cycle. Fracking makes it worse, because capital costs are large, economics marginal, and fracked wells deplete rapidly. A tired, worn-out horse to harness your future to.

Got a kick out of this one. One solution is to let the ocean continue to rise, allowing the Ocean City beach to recede far enough so the wind farms can't be seen.

Where's Blizz? Torchy recently considering the enso state. We should get some nina-related cooling this winter. Guessing we will be even warmer next fall, if the nina relaxes. We'll see.

This new paper is about the tropics, but the physics are relevant to this summer heat wave in the NW. Dry areas are going to experience more amplification of extreme heat under climate change: "According to the theory, warming is amplified for hot land days because those days are dry, which is termed the ‘drier get hotter’ mechanism." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00828-8