chubbs

Chart from Hanson's January update. January was only 6'th warmest due to nina. This years nina is very similar in strength to 2010/11. As Hanson points out, if warming is steady, 12-month running average should drop below the trend line, similar to 2011. If not, there has been an acceleration probably due to forcing picking up. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/January2021.pdf

I hope you are kidding about "limits of measurement". The ocean heat trend is very robust. Temperature measurement in water is more meaningful due to high heat capacity and there is much less year-to-year variability. Another record in 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x

Per my #: 1.022 vs 1.018, a difference that could disappear in future updates. Did you collect your bet?

Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate A good read. Yes the climate has varied in the past. https://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/178/1/jgs2020-239

Seeing a big Dec plunge this year as well in reanalysis - 2010 a good analog

Here is the horserace chart. 2020 grabbed the lead. You're bet looks good.

Could have gotten better than even money a couple of days ago on the site you linked above - I would have taken those odds

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 2020 grabs the lead after Nov. Interestingly, 2010, another nina, also set a Nov GISS record before plunging in Dec, so may come down to the wire.

November has been very warm despite the nina. Record looks likely now.

The pessimistic permafrost modeling study posted above was conducted by professors at a business school using a simple model they developed. Would heavily discount. Not that permafrost isn't a problem, but need better models to evaluate. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

GISS comparison through October below. Going to be a close race right to the wire despite ENSO being less favorable for warmth this year.

yes it was warm: March 47 +6.2 T the last 1.2" of snow fell in April. Enjoyed the outlook.

After last year would take 1893-94 . Below are the local philly stats - downtown then vs airport today - norms 1880-1910 Dec 36.4 +0.2 3.5" Jan 36.6 +3.9 4.1" Feb 31.9 -1.3 11.5" seasonal snow - 20.3" vs 24.3" norm

How much for Philly? This plot suggests that any relationship between October sea ice and subsequent Philly snow is complicated. In any case, can say that very low Oct sea ice, below 4.5 million sq km, doesn't help. Not good with this years October sea ice area a record low of 4.08 million sq km.

Good plot for seeing trends in every month.

Trump doesn't want to debate climate change (or covid). Wonder why?

Blizz is available for debate prep -

I prefer RSS for the following reasons: 1) troposphere should warm faster than surface 2) RSS in much better agreement with satellite tpw 3) UAH discarded NOAA-14 uah for purely qualitative reasons - "NOAA-14 warms too much". Comparing uah and rss with surface data for the period in question, 1998-2004, shows that RSS is in much better agreement. 4) Recent satellites don't have diurnal drift which can cause a cooling bias if not fully corrected. Since the newer satellites have come on board UAH is in much better agreement with RSS and surface obs. 5) RSS has published satellite to satellite comparisons showing good agreement among satellites with the recent upgrade. Zip from UAH 6) Satellite diurnal drift is most pronounced over land, where UAH has much lower land warming vs surface obs (see below). The surface obs network is dense and the land trends have very little uncertainty. Meanwhile RSS is in better agreement with surface land data (also below). The NOAA-14 period after 1998 an obvious problem for UAH. 7) Finally UAH has a track record and it isn't good. https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6-land/mean:12/plot/crutem4vgl/last:480/mean:12/offset:-0.3/plot/rss-land/mean:12

I am more optimistic than I was 5-10 years ago. The competitive advantage and market value of fossil fuels is shrinking every day. Article below just a sign of the times. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiWioiKl5jsAhXMmVkKHTx9DA0Q0PADegQIBRAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F39a70458-d4d1-4a6e-aca6-1d5670bade11&usg=AOvVaw0kgkvZ52x74xrKD1tWQrG9

1) Pages2k the best compilation of data available. There are are wide range of sources including ice cores. Note the range in time resolution below, some of the series have relatively fine time resolution. If you have any information that is not included please provide. 2) There are plenty of instances of CO2 leading temperatures. The PETM for a start and many others. Our recent ice ages only started after CO2 had dropped low enough for orbital cycles to trigger. 3) There is plenty of data supporting water vapor feedback, as discussed in the other thread.

The timing in the sea-level chart is the same as the temperature+CO2 chart. Increases in all three started in the late 1700s.