chubbs

Just noodling some #. Doubled CO2 is 3.7 W/m2 so forcing increase is roughly 0.9% of doubled CO2 per year. GISS temperature increase over same period is .0229C per year giving a rough TCR of 2.6. Plenty of uncertainty in slopes due to short time-period, but warming and forcing both increasing at a good clip. Giss trend - http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

Sun is waking up

Yes, wind is a scapegoat for those want to shirk responsibility for rolling the dice and getting snake eyes. Wind turbines and other electrical infrastructure are working fine in Wisconsin. https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/environment/built-for-cold-wisconsin-grid-hums-along-in-temperatures-that-crippled-texas/article_f42cd474-67fc-5fd8-888e-03d69d9ba215.html

Yes 2021 will be cooler than 2020, but so far there is no indication that the drop will be unusual for a La Nina. I posted this chart a few days ago in the 2020 thread. ENSO conditions currently are very similar to early 2011, but global average temperatures are much warmer. Note that Jan 2021 is above the long-term trend line, while Jan 2011 was below. If we can't get below the trend line, we are going to need a new, steeper one.

Chart from Hanson's January update. January was only 6'th warmest due to nina. This years nina is very similar in strength to 2010/11. As Hanson points out, if warming is steady, 12-month running average should drop below the trend line, similar to 2011. If not, there has been an acceleration probably due to forcing picking up. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/January2021.pdf

I hope you are kidding about "limits of measurement". The ocean heat trend is very robust. Temperature measurement in water is more meaningful due to high heat capacity and there is much less year-to-year variability. Another record in 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x

Per my #: 1.022 vs 1.018, a difference that could disappear in future updates. Did you collect your bet?

Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate A good read. Yes the climate has varied in the past. https://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/178/1/jgs2020-239

Seeing a big Dec plunge this year as well in reanalysis - 2010 a good analog

Here is the horserace chart. 2020 grabbed the lead. You're bet looks good.

Could have gotten better than even money a couple of days ago on the site you linked above - I would have taken those odds

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 2020 grabs the lead after Nov. Interestingly, 2010, another nina, also set a Nov GISS record before plunging in Dec, so may come down to the wire.

November has been very warm despite the nina. Record looks likely now.

The pessimistic permafrost modeling study posted above was conducted by professors at a business school using a simple model they developed. Would heavily discount. Not that permafrost isn't a problem, but need better models to evaluate. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

GISS comparison through October below. Going to be a close race right to the wire despite ENSO being less favorable for warmth this year.

yes it was warm: March 47 +6.2 T the last 1.2" of snow fell in April. Enjoyed the outlook.

After last year would take 1893-94 . Below are the local philly stats - downtown then vs airport today - norms 1880-1910 Dec 36.4 +0.2 3.5" Jan 36.6 +3.9 4.1" Feb 31.9 -1.3 11.5" seasonal snow - 20.3" vs 24.3" norm

How much for Philly? This plot suggests that any relationship between October sea ice and subsequent Philly snow is complicated. In any case, can say that very low Oct sea ice, below 4.5 million sq km, doesn't help. Not good with this years October sea ice area a record low of 4.08 million sq km.

Good plot for seeing trends in every month.

Trump doesn't want to debate climate change (or covid). Wonder why?

Blizz is available for debate prep -

I prefer RSS for the following reasons: 1) troposphere should warm faster than surface 2) RSS in much better agreement with satellite tpw 3) UAH discarded NOAA-14 uah for purely qualitative reasons - "NOAA-14 warms too much". Comparing uah and rss with surface data for the period in question, 1998-2004, shows that RSS is in much better agreement. 4) Recent satellites don't have diurnal drift which can cause a cooling bias if not fully corrected. Since the newer satellites have come on board UAH is in much better agreement with RSS and surface obs. 5) RSS has published satellite to satellite comparisons showing good agreement among satellites with the recent upgrade. Zip from UAH 6) Satellite diurnal drift is most pronounced over land, where UAH has much lower land warming vs surface obs (see below). The surface obs network is dense and the land trends have very little uncertainty. Meanwhile RSS is in better agreement with surface land data (also below). The NOAA-14 period after 1998 an obvious problem for UAH. 7) Finally UAH has a track record and it isn't good. https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6-land/mean:12/plot/crutem4vgl/last:480/mean:12/offset:-0.3/plot/rss-land/mean:12