showmethesnow

Don't think I have seen the Euro seasonal yet. Take it it isn't such a great look?

It's a risky look, one that we could score within as depicted or get totally screwed with just some minor changes. The ridging off the west coast is too far west but it should work as long we do see a western based -NAO in place. The strength and placement of that -NAO (blocking) should force systems farther south through the east then you would typically see with the ridging setting up off the west coast. But shift that -NAO to an east based one, weaken it or worse yet pull it out altogether and we are most likely pooched. What that ridging off the west coast will do is force troughing into the west and a corresponding bump up of heights/ridging in the east. You can see the minor height builds through the gulf and southern states but they are dampened because of the blocking to the north. But weaken, shift east or pull out the -NAO altogether and you will see those heights bump up forcing systems to our west.

Was just glancing over the CANSIPS anomalies for the winter and comparing it to the CFS and they just do not jive. The heights over the pole are stronger on the CFS and yet the Cansips is the one going to town on the +height anomalies. They are using slightly different climatology years (CFS 1984-2009, Cansips 1981-2010) but I doubt very seriously that that is accounting for the huge discrepancies on anomalies between the two. Maybe a different methodology on computing the anomalies? Now I am looking at tropical tidbits so I am not sure whether it has been updated or not from the issues it had with its initial run but from comments I have seen the issues did not affect the heights so that is probably not the issue? In any case, either I am just plain thinking wrong or I have a feeling we should just probably toss the Aug Cansips run because I have a sneaky suspicion that the Sept run is going to look a lot different when it comes to the anomalies. Here's hoping I am wrong. ***Came across a good article in regards to the strat/trop PV. Very informational for those with a limited understanding of that. Video of the 2012/2013 SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event and its impact on the strat pv is well worth watching. http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/polar-vortex/

2 years ago it was on top of the Nina and did fairly well. Last year not so much. Anything beyond 2 years you will have to ask someone else as I really didn't take note of it. Just an aside, but when you are quoting a long post such as above you might want to delete all but what is relevant to what you are commenting on. Saves people a lot of scrolling through dead space.

Just want to preface this with the fact that this is not a prediction/thoughts whatsoever on the upcoming winter it is more so just for curiosity's sake. Climate models can have their issues and we are talking roughly 4+ months for the winter so it is somewhat at range. Not to mention they did have issues with this run to boot. Now it we continue to see this look in the coming months then I will get excited. Below we have the 3 month 500 mb anoms for Dec-Feb. This is a great look IMO. A large concentric ball of red (higher heights) centered on the pole with higher height anomalies centered both over Greenland (blocking) and eastern Russia (cross polar plow). This look would be suggestive of a very weak PV probably getting shoved around a good bit (think -AO). Under riding this we see the lower pressure anomalies straddling the mid latitudes (active weather pattern). Now if you look in the CONUS we have strong ridging driving all the way up into the arctic regions which is the vehicle to drive cold air into the central/eastern US. In response to this ridging we are seeing low pressure anomalies set up in the east (troughing). As I said I like this look a lot. What is even more impressive is the duration. We see the building of the heights begin in Sept and only by May do we see them breaking down. We are talking roughly 9 months. This would imply an early start to winter as well as a late ending with little to no breaks in between. Since I have been tracking (96) I can't ever recall seeing heights over the pole during the winter be at such magnitude, so concentric and centered on the pole and for such a long duration as what the CANSIPS is advertising. So I thought I would look into recent previous winters (back to 1981). Below we have some of the winters that featured stronger high latitude blocking. Notice that though some may share a feature or two of the above none are what I would call exactly a good match. That brings us to these two years. Below we have 1985-86. This is a good match. Though not as large in scope nor as concentric it does have good heights centered over the pole. The greater anomalies are also setting up over Greenland and nosing into eastern Russia. West coast ridging, east coast troughing. Also see neg anomalies in western Europe which the above Cansips has as well. The one thing it does show that the CANSIPS does not have are indications that we may have been dealing with WAR (Western Atlantic ridging) at times. But over all this is a pretty good match. And for those who are curious, 15.6 inches were recorded in Baltimore and 15.4 in DC that year. Would have expected better myself but have to question whether episodes of WAR played into those totals. And then we have 2009-10. Though it doesn't match up as well with the mid-latitude pressure anomalies like the previous example it does match better in the upper latitudes. I am sure I don't have to list snowfall for this year. And before someone brings up 1996 here it is. As you can see it is more so the strategic placement of the blocking/higher heights in the upper latitudes more then anything else. Not a good match to what we see with the CANSIP around the pole. .

Good one. Nah, We're due index.

Love the look the CANSIPs throws at us Nov-March. We get that and our winter would be rocking open to close. Can't recall ever seeing such a large expansive red ball of higher heights in the upper latitudes not to mention the length that it holds them. Sadly, I am tossing this run though. Saw a very dramatic flip from the previous runs and have to question whether the heat and sea pack melt in the arctic regions may have had some influence/skewed the run. That said, we see something similar come the Sept 1 run... By the way, you forgot the biggest index of them all. WDI.

You wouldn't have survived tracking pre-2000 when models quite often couldn't be trusted at 3 days let alone 7+. The advancements we have seen since have been extraordinary. By the way, I am sure the programmers of these models don't sleep at night knowing you don't trust their product.

Not sure we can go by initialization times. Initialization is not so much about when the model was run but more so about the time the met obs and other pertinent data were collected. So even if it was rerun I would think they would go with the time of data collection and not the run time. And if you look at the CANSIP's Dec 500's from the tweet it is showing 8/1/2019. So either he misposted or the updated one will show the same initialization.

?? Just curious how you think it would be obvious?

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

The 2000 storm was a fun one. Remember hearing how we wouldn't see another storm sneak up on us like the 79 one due to advances with the modeling and yet... Was watching that storm on the radar throughout the evening thinking that it was coming up the coast and yet the Mets were insisting that it would turn and head OTS. Finally on the 11pm news they caved but even then I think they were still talking a glancing blow. As they say, the rest is history.

Have a sneaky suspicion that the 78 storm was one that I was kind of pissed off at because others not too far away were getting double if not triple my totals. Might explain why I don't remember it because I have blocked it out of my memory. I missed out on the 83 storm up here. Was down at Georgia Tech for that one. Wasn't a total wash though as they did see a couple inches and had a good time playing sandlot football in their stadium in the snow. eta: Speaking of storms that I missed out on. The Storm of the Century in 93 was one. Lived in California at the time and remember watching the weather channel nonstop for almost a week following it. Seriously considered flying back the day before when it was looking like a sure thing. I cringe to this day when people start discussing it on these boards.

Pulled out my Kocin book to look at this storm to see if it brought back any memories. Nah, nothing. Did notice on their snowfall map that there were some notable differences in snowfall (heavy to substantially lighter) just in short distances down around the bay and up through Balt and Carroll counties. One report over in Carroll has 7 inches and another just over to Mappyland shows 17". Have a feeling we may both have been on the losing side on the battle between the heavier and lighter snows. Had another storm that year in January of that year that may have actually dumped more snow on us then this one.

Can picture you as a D & D guy... but Pokemon?

And here I thought you were going to Mehhhh... it. Don't remember that one at all. Looking at the snowfall maps it looks as if Owings Mills got maybe 8-10 inches which was probably somewhat exciting at the time but it wasn't near the slap in the face that 79 was. Funny what you remember though. Remember one year (sometime in the mid 70's) mother took me out to visit one of her friends in Randalstown. Had a snow squall roll through for maybe a half hour or so that dropped snowflakes easily the size of golf balls and laid down 4-5 inches of extremely fluffy snow. For years afterward when they mentioned the chance of squalls I would get excited. Took me a while to realize that what I had experienced was actually pretty rare down in the low lands. Did I forget to mention that it was an early B-Day present?

What was so neat about PD1? I know you probably jest but just about everything. My favorite all time storm with only the two storms in 09/10 dumping close to 4 feet of snow in such a short period of time coming close (and that is mostly noteworthy just for the sheer amount of snow that was dumped). Lived in Owings Mills at the time and the last forecast I heard (probably Bob Turk at 5pm) had us getting Flurries to maybe an inch for our area at best. Woke up to total whiteout conditions, winds howling and probably 6+ inches or so of snow on the ground. Have never seen such rates (upwards of 5" an hour per articles), sustained to boot, ever since. Probably have seen higher gusts in a winter storm at some point but for sustainability of high winds I don't think any other storm I have experienced comes close. Drifting was the best I have ever experienced. In fact we had a steep hill in the neighborhood that we were jumping off of into a drift that was probably 10+ feet. The frequency of lightning during a time far surpassed anything I have ever experienced in a snow storm. 2 feet of snow became my benchmark afterwards as we just missed it by an inch or two. And the fact that schools were closed for the whole week was a novel experience. Also consider that this was my first experience with a significant winter storm after living my childhood through the snow drought we saw during the 70's. So for overall personal experience nothing comes close in my book. eta: After reading FDR's article I realized I forgot to mention the cold. Probably the coldest storm I have ever experienced and combined with the winds it made for a somewhat painful experience when walking out in it.

I'm cashing in my Mulligan Card. Here are my new numbers. BWI 100 DCA 99 IAD 100 RIC 100

Just starting to see pumpkins now? Did you plant late or is this where your handy tip comes into play?

Lived through the 70's in Harford county and then Owings Mills. I didn't realize then how bad it was because I had no previous experience to compare it to so I thought it was the norm. The blizzard of 79 was a wakeup call to say the least.

Used to follow him religiously years ago (1996 through early 2000's). Now I only occasionally glance at JB's articles when I have weatherbell during the winter. If you can get past his hype and his tendency to stick with his forecast until they are dead and buried then he is well worth reading. He is very knowledgeable and I learned quite a bit from him as a newbie especially when it comes to winter time weather.

Meh.... Who cares. ***Observations of a disgruntled contestant that no longer has any skin in the game.*** eta: Who would have guessed a Hurricane (Barry) would screw me over by pumping up the heights in the east.

Looked at the temp anoms as well. Besides the temps jiving with the long wave pattern through the CONUS it also matched well with the higher heights in the upper latitudes which are scorching.

Was there mention of what the issues were? Curious as to whether it was in relation to the height anomalies, which seemed crazy, or whether it was in relation to the long wave pattern which actually looked pretty good. Or actually both for that matter.

Know they are rough but I thought Nina's were more like 1 out of 5/1 out of 6 that reached around avg to above avg snowfall around the dc/Baltimore corridor? Majority of them being of the weak nina state. Our last nina a couple of years ago I think most attained around avg snowfall with some exceptions of course. And if we had had a semblance of a negative Nao it would have been a somewhat notable winter as the coastal scrappers would have been adjusted westward. Don't get me wrong though, I would much rather see a neutral to a nino enso every winter.