showmethesnow

After our vacation this summer Maine has now hit the top of the list in two years when we move. Couple of hours inland off the coast where property values drop a good bit is where we are now considering. Other consideration is the Laurel Highlands (western Pa) where the higher elevations average over a 100 inches a year (had over 300 hundred inches just a few years ago). The laurels also are only 1 1/2 hours out from my wife's childhood home so she has quite a bit of family and friends there. But they don't have a shore line like Maine does and we both love the ocean. Probably come down to general overall taxes and cost of living when all is said and done.

It's just one tool to use. Sometimes they do well, sometimes not so much. You really need to look at everything and form an opinion and not just one tool. That said, IMO the climate models did very well two years ago especially the CanSips. But we were talking a Nina at the time and it behaved like a Nina and not a Nino that didn't act like a Nino that we saw this past year. So take from that what you will.

Anybody that follows winter in the Mid-Atlantic needs therapy. Heck, it's almost as bad as following tropical.

Okay, let's quite talking about last year. I am still butt hurt from the whole thing and don't want to discuss it anymore.

Getting the PAC to cooperate is a good deal of the battle as it is much more forgiving when it comes to our snow chances. If we are bucking the PAC then we are counting on so many other things to go right for our chances. Doesn't mean we can't score, because we have, it just means we are playing with a stacked deck and the dealer is holding all the cards. That said I am liking what I am seeing despite the ENSO state that looks as if it is flirting with Nina status. Climate models seem to be coming on board as well to a cooperative Pac. But it is still early and we saw how last year went. Everything looked golden early on with the potential for a blockbuster winter where we were going to get cooperation from all areas. But the PAC for the most part baled on us though it had some brief moments where it cooperated. Also we only had brief periods of cooperation from the NAO and the AO despite the promise there as well. And then we had meltdowns board wide. One thing to note, if I remember correctly, the only time we scored was when the PAC cooperated. Just goes to show how important that feature is.

No, actually what we are seeing is most likely a good thing. Below we have current SST's in the PAC. Notice the cold pool in the central/western Pac. This cold pool is surrounded by a horseshoe of warm water around Alaska, down the coast to Mexico and into the central PAC. This is actually getting close to an optimal look for the east coast. We will probably see this cold pool expand in the coming weeks. Though we might see some expansion towards the east my money is on us seeing that expand west to off the coast of Japan. This is a good look for us. Now I circled the ENSO region. Notice we are pretty much looking at a neutral state at this point, possibly moving towards a Nina. I will explain shortly why I am bringing that up. Now below I have the different PDO states. The positive which is similar to what we are seeing with the current SSTs and the negative which is the polar opposite. The positive is the one we are searching for as we tend to see the heights set up in a favorable location to see dumps of cold into the central US and move eastward (-EPO/+PNA). This results in a cold east. The negative on the other hand tends to raise heights farther west off the coast and send the cold shots into the west, move them into the central US and then withdraw them before they get into the east. So what we see is a warm SE and normal temps in the NE. Below is a much clearer representation of a +PDO. Notice that we have a much more expansive cold pool and that it is riding up into Japan an eastern Asia. We also have the horse shoe of warm anomalies surrounding it. This is the look we are probably shooting for. Now as you have seen I have circled the ENSO region on all the maps. Notice what is missing on the current SST map compared to the textbook horseshoe +PDO? A Nino, as we are currently seeing a neutral. So what does that tell us? That we are probably still seeing Nino forcings in the Pacific as we head through fall into winter. We continue to see that cold pool, hopefully expanding somewhat and we are good to go knowing that the PAC will probably cooperate. On the other hand, we see that diminish/disappear and we know that we are losing the Nino forcings and will have to depend on other areas (NAO, AO, etc...) to compensate.

Who took it? I bet it was that @EastCoast NPZ dude. Just because he lives in a desert and it sucks he has to ruin it for the rest of us.

The PV is now in the process of setting up. Current 384hr

What I am normally looking for each year is a warm neutral to a moderate Nino. Generally speaking a strong Nino is normally the kiss of death as well as a Nina though we can sometimes score with a weak one. But yeah, give me a moderate Nino with a Modoki any day of the week. Oh and a -NAO if they still exist.

Not going to go back and check at this time but I could have sworn we have seen several winters in the general DC/Balt region that have experienced 25-50% +winters during a weak nino. Could be wrong though. There is no denying that the ENSO is the probably the #1 indice to focus on but you just can't ignore the others because they quite often have a say as well.

Pretty much wall to wall winter (Nov-March). Jan-March has a particularly cold look (EPO-cross polar flow) though I don't think the anomalies give the look justice. Some form of a -NAO every month. Looks to be a weakened PV (-AO?). If that were to verify for the winter I don't think there would be any complaining on these boards. Well except for the usual suspects (JI, you out there?)

Just started looking over it now. Quick glance and all I have to say is, 'Oh my'.

Besides what has been posted on here about the only thing I have looked at so far for the coming winter is the SST's in the PAC and that was 2 or 3 weeks ago. Will probably start looking into things in a week or two though. Will be one of the latest starts for me as far as that goes. Guess last year still is leaving a bitter taste in my mouth.

Was just informed that the trough that sets up in Alaska on the Euro seasonal for the fall retrogrades for the winter and we have ridging replacing it. This should allow for cold air delivery into the CONUS. But that's all i have at this time as far as the Euro.

Not sure when they release the CanSips every month but I sort of expected it out by now. Wonder if they may be having issues again. Have been curious as to whether it would follow up on last months release with all the high heights over the arctic and pole (which would be a good thing).

And here I thought you were trolling the weenies. I enjoy seeing all the different things posted even the bad with the good. Helps give me a general feel of what to expect for winter besides just looking at the major indices. And that method works so well. Take last year for example, all the things out there were suggesting a blockbuster winter and we had a great... mediocre winter.

I am not so sure I would 1 to 1.5 degrees above normal an epic torch. Now the cold anomalies showing up over Greenland and the West could be troublesome. The one in Greenland suggests a +NAO as normally temps would be above normal for a -NAO. And the anomalies in the west suggest a trough which normally results in ridging in the east. I do like seeing the greater +temp anomalies over the arctic and pole as that suggests higher heights there and a weakened PV and possible -AO. Would like to see how each month pans out though rather then just a mean of all three months to get a better idea of what we are looking at.

I hear rock/gravel lawns are easy to maintain.

This brings up my thoughts that not only do placement of anomalies play a part in driving the pattern but also the magnitude of contrasts we see with SSTs in surrounding regions. Have a feeling that this plays a huge part as well. After all contrasts and their magnitude are what ultimately drive the weather. Every year at around this time I start to consider looking back over prior year's SSTs (actually the last couple of weeks I have started to consider this very thing) to see if there may be an actual relationship with contrasts/or lack thereof and how they may possibly impact ENSO forcings as well as maybe WPO/EPO/PNA. Just seems like a daunting task as well as very time consuming. Let alone the data set to pull from is probably much too small to get a clear idea if a relationship actually may exist.

You live in a desert. So I would expect the correlation between WSI and DJF snowfall and temperatures should be extremely high.

From what I understand from others there is a pretty strong correlation between the Newfoundland cold pool and the NAO. But of course I do recall over the years where this relationship has failed so though it may be a strong driver of the NAO values it is not the sole one and others come into play.

Curious if the May/April and Sept/March correlation is something you have taken note of or has there been a study on this? Also, if this relationship has only held for the last 20 years or so and not so much beyond that then I wonder if we are talking more so coincidence then an actual precursor to the winter NAO values. Sort of like Cohen's Siberian snow advance theory that worked well for a stretch and then went all to hell the last few years. If this is an actual study would love to read over the material if you could point the way.

Have very little knowledge on the subject myself except the bits and pieces I have read on this board but I have it from a good source that the Newfoundland cold pool this year bodes well for episodes of blocking (-NAO). Evidently it was very impressive (best since 09-10) during the May-July time period of which research suggests this is the key period.

Thought I would give a visual of what we are talking about in regards to the NAO when we have the ridging centered off the west coast. This will also give you an idea why we were rooting so hard for a legit -NAO last winter. Below we have the CANSIPS Dec forecast. The ridging is centered up into the Gulf of Alaska. This will tend to force troughing into the southwest and that in turn will favor height builds/ridging into the east. But notice the heights are weak in the east. This is due to the -nao/50/50 combo that is set up. This will back the flow and tend to try to force troughing into the east. So essentially this block is dampening/putting a cap on height builds in the east as both these tendencies (trough/ridge) fight it out. You can follow the flow up around the Alaskan ridging, down into the southwest trough and then exiting off the east coast farther south then what you would typically see with the PAC aligned as it is. This is a snow look for our region. Now compare the above to what we see below (Feb 2018). The PAC is essentially the same but now we have the -NAO taken out. We see the flow swinging around the ridging forcing troughing into the southwest but as it moves eastward we are now seeing a difference. Notice that we are now seeing a neutralish NAO which is allowing the - anomalies in the 50/50 region to shift northward. This configuration is a weak block at best as the backing of the flow is minor. Thus we are not seeing the forcing of troughing in the east as in the previous example. With no longer having the pushback from this trough the southeast ridging is given free reign to do its thing and we see that with a very notable bump up of the Southeast ridging. And with that bump up the flow responds by flowing to our west and then off the coast in NE. This is not the look we want to see for snow. ETA: We preferably want to see a western based -NAO or at worst a central based as I am not sure an eastern based -NAO would cut it.

Hence my statement that we need to see the -NAO.