showmethesnow

You are pretty much talking a EPO/PNA combo with the ridging running up at least the northern west coast. Sort of what is being advertised in the longer range at this time.

It is always tough to predict snowfall totals for the year when one or two KU's can really rigged the numbers. But at this point from what I have been seeing I have feeling that at worst we will see in the ball park of an average year. The question at this point is if we can exceed that and the following week, 10 days will go a long way in my mind in shedding light. Will be interesting to see how the PNA/EPO and the NAO play together, if they in fact exist, as well as the response we see within the SW troughing/weakness through this period. Think that general pattern may be a common one at the very least through the first half of winter and it is one that we can do well in.

It's in the handbook. Any storm within 10 days is a sure thing.

@PrinceFrederickWx So coach, what's the word? Showme: I tell you Price, we have the potential. Lots of potential in fact. Whether it is realized or not is another story. Prince: But we heard this last year. All the hype surrounding your team and yet you were a mediocre team at best. In fact weren't you in negotiations with Geritol for the elderly in anticipation of a Super Bowl victory? And yet as I look over the team I find many of the same players and coaches in place as we had last year. So what has changed? Showme: True, true. We greatly under performed as far as I am concerned. (mumble, mumble) Can't believe I lost that Geritol promo. If I could have scored that money I could have gotten out of this damn profession. Ahem..... Where was I? Ah yes, Prince we did under perform. And yes we have many of the same players. BUT... we have made some key changes here and there that hopefully will have a significant impact. For one, I fired the whole freaking NAO coaching staff. Found out they were calling in their schemes from the different stadium bars during the games. Needless to say, that doesn't fly with me. (mumble, mumble) Especially if they can't be bothered to invite me and God knows I could have used a drink or two last year. Ah, and second we have beefed up on the PNA and EPO lines. Got tired of watching the SW weakness bully them around. So we have had them on a new training program during the off season. (mumble, mumble) Probably shouldn't tell him the training involved eating massive quantity of donuts. Nobody's going to be able to move those lard asses once they get planted. Ahem... Have a feeling that will pay big dividends this year as well. Prince: What about the AO? That crew seemed to be hit or miss the whole season. Any changes there? Showme: Yeah, they were somewhat of a disappointment. The talent is there and yet they greatly under performed. But this preseason we have been hitting them hard time and again. Applying non stop pressure to hopefully get them to hit their peak performance levels. And early indications are that it is working. (mumble, mumble) Doesn't hurt that most of them are in their final year of their contracts hunting for a big payday. Maybe that will get them off their lazy asses and actual show up. Prince: Things sound somewhat promising coach. But I just can't shake what we saw happen last year. You were promising us feasts and yet we ended up rooting through dumpsters for scraps off the table. Anyway, any predictions on the coming season? Showme: Well Prince, there is enough talent on the board at this point to go all the way. It is all a question of whether they can play as a team throughout the season. Having one group show up each game while the others are MIA will not work. That is a recipe for another mediocre season as talent alone can only take us so far. The next week will be very telling as far as that is concerned. We will be finally putting all the pieces together during this time and getting a feeling of how well they play together. So Prince, get back to me then and I will boldly lay it on the line. (mumble, mumble) Going to pound the next guy that brings up last year. Wonder if it is too late to consider a career change?

I don't know about others but whenever I see this look in the PAC and West CONUS I cringe. We have been snake bitten for several years now with full latitude troughing into the SW with the PAC ridging too far off the West coast (Hawaiian ridging) to help dislodge it and force the mean trough eastward. It is a very difficult setup to overcome for our snow chances here in the east. And we have been seeing this pop up quite often in the extended forecasts for the last month or more. But this year could very well be different, in a possible very good way. What we have been seeing from the models quite often as these looks near in time is that the models either back off on the energy dropping into the trough, shift the mean trough easterly, or quickly disengage from the full latitude trough not planting it there. Or some combination of the three. In other words, what initially looks horrible in the long range actual morphs into a passable look if not in fact a good look. Not only that but what energy does drop down into the weakness in the SW has tended to cutoff allowing not only any NS energy but followup PAC energy as well to bypass this weakness and flow eastward allowing the mid-latitude trough to shift eastward as well. And it is mostly due to one feature that isn't currently seen but has tended to pop up as these periods near in time. That feature is a northern based +PNA over cutting a southern -PNA induced by the SW weakness. I have a strong suspicion that we will see this occur once again. One other thing to note is that we are seeing a strong -NAO. Even though we are seeing this -NAO notice that it really isn't conducive for transporting cold air into the east as the NS is locked up into Canada. We might be able to get away with this in the heart of winter but not so much now. I will further elaborate about this a little later. Now I mentioned a northern based +PNA showing up as the above looks neared in time and here is an example. I don't have the maps to go back far enough but if I recall correctly when this period of time first hit the extendeds we were seeing an even stronger looking full latitude SW trough then above with no signs of ridging into the NW. But look what is actually verifying. A strong N +PNA. What this is doing is allowing any NS energy to flow eastward as well as splitting the PAC flow creating a cutoff low in the SW. Now this look would excite me if we were just another month into the season (climo just isn't there yet)). Now some would see that ridging in the central US and dismiss the potential out of hand. But let me show you how this evolves. Roughly two days later and this is what we see. We have seen energy ejected from the cutoff SW low and it is moving eastward. This is creating a split flow. Now if you look in the east notice that the ridging that was moving eastward from the central US is being beat down by the NS energy that was allowed to bypass the SW weakness and move eastward. Now move this setup a month ahead and we are looking at more agreeable climo temps as well as a farther sagging south of the NS jet which would possibly put our local into play for frozen. Now for those that still can't see the potential on the above let me throw out what we are seeing at 250 mbs with the jets. We are seeing the interplay between 4 different jets where they all are converging in the east. First we have the PAC jet which is getting split by the cutoff low and northern +PNA. The northern portion is rotating around the +PNA creating a NS jet that is dropping down into the central/eastern US. The southern portion of the split PAC jet is flowing around the cutoff low where it is joining with a southern jet streaming from Hawaii (pineapple express). Now the fourth jet I have brought up the possibility of being in play this winter several times before and here we see it. What we have been seeing is an anticyclone in the upper levels of the atmosphere that has generally been rotating around the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. This feature has been creating this secondary tropical jet to pop up quite often. As I said, this look would excite me if it was just a little deeper into the season. As is if we see similar looks this season it could very well be a fun ride for us. Now if the PAC and the Western CONUS doesn't cooperate we do have a possible fall back to go to. ***For the record I actually believe we are going to be seeing much better looks there as we near in time*** Now I mentioned the -NAO on the first map. Quite often a -NAO alone isn't enough to over ride a strong western trough and the first map above shows this. Typically you need to see 1 of two things in conjunction with it for our snow chances. First off strong heights in central and eastern Canada pressing down towards the US border is one such feature which will buckle the NS down into the US. One run several days ago showed this but unfortunately I could not find it to give you an example. So basically, bright reds over top of us in southern Canada is a good thing. That brings us to the second thing, a 50/50 low and low and behold both the GEFS and the EPS are showing this in the extended. The GEFS begins rotating a lobe of the PV into the 50/50 position at day 9/10 and holds it there for an extended period of time as energy keeps rotating up and reinforcing it. Now the key here is, where does it actually place this 50/50? Below at roughly day 12 we see it locked underneath the Greenland ridging/higher heights. Now this isn't quite a prime location. It is too far north where there is very little influence on the mid-latitude flow so we are seeing a fairly flat flow as there is very little backing of that flow. This in turn is not giving any incentive for the NS to drop southward. But look what occurs when we see that PV stray farther southward where it can impact the mid-latitude flow (A run from a couple of days ago as an example, very similar looks are scattered throughout recent runs so this is a very viable solution). Notice that the pv has strongly pressed into the mid-latitude flow where we are seeing extreme buckling from the backing of that flow. A natural response is to see ridging develop upstream from that low as well as well as a trough behind that where the NS drops. The stronger the backing of the flow the stronger the response with the subsequent ridging and troughing. In this case we are seeing major amplification of these features. With the -EPO being advertised here as well this would probably be a significant cold shot incoming. So some of you may be asking, 'So what does all this mean?'. IMO we are looking at the possibility of some major changes here in the east at 10+ days as well as a possibly quite stormy period as well. Now this is all contingent on the models being somewhat correct on the features I am outlining. Features that are popping up inside of 10 days on the models I might add. Doesn't mean the models are right but it does add a little more confidence. So in a nutshell. At this time I think odds strongly favor that we see a fairly significant cold shot into the eastern US in the extended ( beginning of Dec), a cold shot that could very well have staying power as we see shots of reinforcing cold air. Now how severe and duration will depend on several things. I am favoring we see a northern based +PNA but the question is, do we see a -EPO along with it for cross polar flow? And I would not rule that out whatsoever. We get that +PNA and -EPO and that can drive some very cold air down especially if we see the 50/50 low cooperate in buckling the flow in the east. Now as far as stormy. Right now everything I am seeing indicates we will probably have a succession of storms in the eastern US. Now as far as timing and how they may impact us it is too soon to say. Right now if I had to take a guess I would probably favor an initial storm roughly day 10/11 (I reserve the right to adjust that somewhat from what i see in future runs). Though I won't rule it out, the first storm will probably be a no-show (except the mountains) as it will be more of a stage setter then anything else as it drives in the initial cold and sets up a boundary through the general region. Once that boundary sets up I expect we will see impulses riding along that for a period of time. Depending on where we sit as far as the boundary will determine what we see. Think we then see energy eject out of the SW (think the split flow I showed above with the ejected SW cutoff) and produce a significant storm in the east dragging some very cold to potentially extreme cold in behind it. And again as far as what to expect with that possibly storm it is far to early to even hazard a guess.

And just like that it flips again. Too much variability between runs when it comes to what we are seeing in the EPO and WPO regions to take any one run with too much seriousness. Especially when just small changes can produce huge differences.

Shifts into the east as we move through the extended. Haven't really digested what it shows but nothing is throwing up red flags on a quick glance.

We have our share of THOSE people on here. The weenies are better off following those that are more impartial and putting the alarmists, who conflate everything to serve their purposes, on ignore.

At this early stage of the season I think it is more important to focus on tendencies (that actually verify and not just model illusions) rather than anything else. And so far I have liked what I have seen. We have seen a tendency of a predominantly -EPO, +WPO. Tendency for a northern based +PNA undercut by a weakness in or off of the SW. Higher heights/blocking in the upper latitudes. Some decent signs of cooperation in the nao domain. Tendency for continual onslaughts to the PV that up the odds for a -ao. There is really a lot to like as we move into winter. Even the ns dump into the sw in the extended, which admittedly gives me nightmares of ghosts past, is more then likely a big nothing burger if you go by tendencies on the models the last month or so. We have already seen two times where the models have advertised a full throttle dump into the SW in the extended only to fairly quickly move away from it. All in all we aren't in a bad place as we head into winter so it would be kind of silly to be panicking over a real or even imagined pattern relax showing up on the models.

No worries here. I would just go into my happy little place. Of course that probably would involve padded walls and numerous restraints.

Won't say I am a fan of what we are seeing around Alaska but that isn't something that overly concerns me at this time. What could possibly be a concern for the long term is if we begin seeing a tendency for full throttle ns dumps into the SW. That has been an all to common theme the last few years and is a major handicap to our snow chances here in the mid Atlantic. Eta: to be clear I am in no way freaking out about it at this time. But get back to me in a month or so if this becomes a somewhat common occurrence. Would be a different story then. Don't think I could handle yet another year tracking phantom long range pattern flips.

Wow. Just massive changes by day 10 on the gefs from just yesterday's 12z. Eta: you can see these changes begin day 5/6 and they quickly snowball.

How about stock options? Think there is a killing to be made there.

I myself would probably focus on not looking beyond day 5/6 at this time. With the PC rotating onto the other side of the globe the midlatitude flow will have a big say with what we see in the upper latitudes in Canada and the nao domain with Alaska (EPO, WPO) being the exception. And the midlatitude flow through the CONUS will pretty much be dictated by how the sw energy gets handled roughly 5 to 7 days out. So anything beyond a week out probaby isn't really worth getting excited about as I expect to see lots of fluctuations between models and/or runs. And until we get the PV or at least a piece of it back onto our side of the globe to help force the upper latitudes we are probably looking at a very fluid situation in the mid and long ranges

I can't understand how such a great look could deteriorate in just a couple of runs. @WxWatcher007checks in the mail, right?

I know Jim. Great guy. Wait, Gym? Never mind then. Never met the dude.

Being away for a wedding in Arizona limits my model tracking but from what I have been seeing posted here as well as some casual tracking on my own I like the setup and features in play in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Especially when it comes to your local which won't be climo temp and latitude challenged as we will be down here. Besides the favorable setup in the n Atlantic I really like what we are seeing upstream through the CONUS as well as through southern Canada through this period of time. The general setup is a forgiving one and imo ups the odds on the potential even for down here in the mid Atlantic. That said I do think it is highly dependent at this time on two things happening especially for down here in our backyards. We need to see the sw energy eject, whether strung out or consolidated and we need to see the ns dropping down in the midwest in front of this energy and not behind. We see this and it opens up several possibilities from overrunning to a possible coastal or some solution in between, temps being cooperative of course. But being 7+ days out it isn't really worth trying to nail down any details especially with 2 features (ns, sw energy) that the models are notorious on mishandling.

Mentioned awhile ago the period centered around this Wednesday might be of interest. And despite the models basically showing nothing the last few days I still have some interest. The general setup still exists where good timing with any potential ns energy diving into the midwest could be the catalyst for coastal development from ss energy. And the models are all over the place with how they want to handle the ns even though we are now within 48 hours of the key time frame for any potential ns drop. Now one big problem we do have even if we do see the needed ns drop is that the earlier coastal is slow to leave so it is crashing heights in front of any potential ns energy/trough not allowing it to start to turn negative tilt until far to late. But even with that feature we have seen enough variance on solutions that it leaves the door open. A little quicker departure and/or weaker solution may allow for needed height builds to positively influence the eastern trough. Now let me be clear, I am neither calling for a storm nor particularly expecting one. I am just pointing out that imo that period of time isn't necessarily dead in the water as of yet and could still surprise. But this doesn't even take into account possible/probably temp issues that would be highly dependent on getting sufficient ns cold injected into our region in time for any possible storm. So we would have that issue to deal with as well.

Nothing like flying out of bwi with temps in the 20's and landing in Phoenix with 70s and expected highs in the low 80s. And here I thought shorts weather was behind me for the year.

To say we have seen improvements in these last few days in regards to the pv (500 mb) migrating westward would be an understatement. My fear of possibly seeing that feature plant itself for a period of time close to Alaska now seem unwarranted. As it stands now we are looking at only a short period of a CONUS wide warmup as PAC air floods NA on the pvs initial move westward. And even that looks to be mitigated in the NE US as we are seeing decent troughing induced by the higher heights/ridging in the NAO domain backing the flow. Though we might struggle with climo temps with the pv located on the other side of the globe in the extended the look being presented now is a far more forgiving look then what was being offered up several days ago.

Overnight Euro was interesting. First shot we see is on Monday (red circle). Right now it stays off the coast so that we see no impact through our region except for possibly around the VA tidewaters up to OC. Probably doesn't matter anyway as the very setup that brings this up the coast is also responsible for trashing our temps as the NS withdraws taking the colder temps with it to the N and E. And anyway I look at it I can't see getting the low closer to the coast to impact us without further losing the temps or getting the temps to cooperate without possibly losing the storm. Barring a somewhat significant shift at 500's, the euro being significantly off on temps or a bombing low just off our coast I think this storm is pretty much dead in the water. Now if we were in the heart of winter or even a month down the road where climo temps would be more cooperative I would have interest in this but as of now I think it is pretty much a non-player. But we are still 5+ days out so... But that isn't the system that has my interest. Look at what we see following on the heals of our Monday system. We have a strong shortwave/trough (purple circle) running down through the gulf states which is attaining a neutral tilt through Mississippi. A neutral tilted trough around the Mississippi region is one of the things we look for when it comes to possible winter storms as quite often it will attain a favorable position and axis tilt (negative) as it sweeps through our region. This trough is catching a low that is forming in the gulf and drawing it northward up the coast as the trough goes negative tilt. Two other features to note are the 2 shortwaves (black circles) embedded in the north stream. The first shortwave (over Michigan) is driving a fresh supply of cold air down into the Midwest as it sweeps through the Lakes. The second shortwave is following with a reinforcing shot of cold air. So now we have a fresh supply of cold air to our west as a low forms and sweeps up the coast. As it is it just quite doesn't get it done. But to expect the Euro to have this energy in the NS nailed down as far as timing and placement at 5+ days is folly. Just a little difference with these features (if they exist) could mean a great deal in timing of the cold as well as the possibility of phasing between the NS energy and/or the southern energy. Now here are the 500's at day 7+. Notice we have negative tilted trough running through our region with an embedded closed low in a prime location over OBX. Not only that but we are seeing a capture of the surface at this time as well. If you also notice the shortwave over the Lakes (second shortwave from above), if we were to see a quicker deeper drop with that feature earlier in the process that could also come into play with potential NS/SS phasing. Also another feature that is of note is the ridging we see to the west in the central US. The initial placement (ridging builds up around Idaho) and eastward migration/evolution of this feature is one of a storm signal in the east. THIS IS THE LOOK WE WANT. Give me this look inside of 3 days and I would be hollering up a storm at the potential. Below we have the surface map as the same time above. We are seeing a 989 mb low captured around OBX and moving northward. This low has seen fairly rapid deepening the previous 24 hrs as we see a 15 mb drop. Now the temps are lagging a little to our west and we are seeing very little precip on the western side of the low. So basically it is a swing and a miss. But these are details that mean nothing at this time range (7+ days). As it is, it is enough to know that the Euro at this time, and has been for awhile, sees a shortwave running through the south as well as the NS dropping in to possibly provide cold air and possibly more. Anything beyond that as far as details is meaningless. Now if we can just get this general look inside 3 days... eta: Just a couple comments about the EPS on the possible Wed system. EPS still sees the southern low development and though somewhat progressive with that feature it has improved in that regard compared to yesterdays 12z run as well as with the trough depth and placement. Saw a better indication as far as possible NS involvement over the 12z run as well though we need to see improvement in that regard. Overall the general look has improved and shows the possibilities. Don't bother with glancing at the individual snow maps because they are basically a no-show. This will be a case of what we see occur with the NS in future runs. We continue to see improvements with that feature (in particular a deeper drop) then the other features would probably fall into place.

This brought back memories of college. Tried to cook a whole chicken in the dorms microwave. Doesn't work too well. Freaking thing exploded. Scared the hell out of some of my dorm mates who happened to be near by. Chicken was splattered all over the place, even had a wing hanging down from the ceiling of the microwave. But me being on a limited college budget ate it anyway. At least the pieces that were still somewhat recognizable.

Was just checking over Tropical and it looks as if it is ready to light up and here you are talking about snow? Get your priorities straight. And you think watching football in the snow is great? Check a game out during a CAT 3/4. Now that is entertainment.

This was another thing I liked seeing amidst our current projected warmup in the extended. What we were seeing regards to the PAC Jet and the tropical jet. Currently we see a strong PAC jet exiting off Asia into the Pacific but it is getting quickly hammered in the central Pacific so as that it is weakened and under goes major gyrations within the flow as it approaches N America. During the projected warmup we see the disruption to the jet in the central Pacific let up a touch so that we see a slightly stronger/straighter/more consolidated jet approaching our shores. But this looks to be brief in nature as the disruptions ramp up once again. This in my mind is a good omen that we will not be plagued with a strong overwhelming jet this winter. Also it looks as if the tropical jet (via the Pineapple express) is ramping up somewhat as well. Not to mention that we continue to see split flow off the SW coast popping up time and again. I also noted a week or two ago about another possible source of a tropical jet (disassociated from the normal PAC one as this one would pull moisture up from the equator through generally Mexico) that might be a player at times. And we are still seeing that feature showing up, the anticyclonic rotation generally situated around the Gulf/Mexico/Central America. All in all I like what we have seen and are projected to see in the coming two weeks. Makes me tend to believe that if this winter ends up being a dud it won't be because the PAC failed us.

@frd https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/ is now bookmarked. Thanks, always nice to see what is occurring below 50 mb and the information is hard to come by.