showmethesnow

Great minds think alike. Of course it doesn't hurt that if I am wrong at least I have a fellow shipmate to go down on the Titanic with me. Pretty much agree with everything you are saying except differ somewhat on what the models suggest in regards to the AO (or at least I believe we see a much more robust signal). Looking at the mid and upper levels is suggestive to me that we see some fairly impressive height builds over the pole and polar regions (2-3 weeks). These same things are also suggestive of major fracturing and displacement southward of the pv at 500's, aka strong -ao.

To say I am less then enthused about the prospects at this time, especially west of the bay would be an understatement. As the snow maps suggest I believe the best chances for anything of substance will be confined to the eastern/southern portions of MD and NE Va as we do see a slug of moisture riding up from the south just in time to enhance moisture into the frontal passage. Up in my neck of the woods I think we are looking at instability snow and/or rain showers at best as the 500's swing through with very little to nothing with the frontal passage. And I am not really impressed with the 500's at this time but will reserve judgment until we get within 48-72 hours as the models should pick up by then on any possible energy rotating through.

Whether right or wrong the ensembles are advertising a mostly CONUS wide warm up as we head into the extended and somewhat beyond. Below we have the EPS (GEFS has some slight differences but generally has the same idea). What will induce this warm up is the PV that has generally been located around the Hudson Bay region will migrate westward towards Alaska/NE Russia. This effectively cuts off cross polar flow which has been sending and will send much colder air relative to norms into our region. With the withdrawal of the pv in central/eastern Canada we are also seeing the amplified troughing in the mid-west/east flattening as well. Part of the reason we were seeing good ridging in the west was due to the backing of the flow that was being induce but the amplified troughing in the east. Take that strong troughing out and we lose that backing and so correspondingly we see the western ridging breakdown as the PAC flow overwhelms it as seen below. Now we do still see an extreme northern based +PNA but it does us little good. What is happening is that the PAC Flow is overwhelming the CONUS effectively putting up a wall against the N Stream which is flowing around the extreme northern ridging. Now below we have the response in temps to this setup. Notice we have basically warmth through the whole of N America at the end of the extended (We do see below norm temps in the SW which are the product of weakness/troughing we see in that region.). As we can see, the N Stream is flowing off the N PAC around the troughing setup by the PV. With coming off the PAC these temps are moderated somewhat so they are showing as warm anomalies through Canada but they would be more then sufficient for our needs if they decided to give us a visit. Unfortunately there is no vehicle to deliver them. The extreme N based ridging comes no where near to providing the oomph to bust through the PAC flow that has setup through the CONUS. And the eastern trough that could have served us as well? That has become muted as well with the pv withdrawal. So the core of the colder air is basically locked up into Canada. Now as far as our region what we could probably expect with this setup is longer periods of warmth with brief intrusions of seasonal to slightly below temps as cold fronts would slide down into the Mid-west and slide eastward as they work around the very weak troughing we see through the region. The cold provided would most likely not be sufficient for our needs (snow) as we are still very early in the season. Now this doesn't take into account an extreme event that can manufacture its own cold (Bombing low, Bowling bowl across the south). So there is always that. Now I know there are some in here who will panic. I wouldn't. This will more then likely be a somewhat brief warmup (2 weeks maybe 3) as there are already signs of this look breaking down at the end of the extended. And we couldn't have asked for better timing as well as this early in the season we struggle mightily anyway (better then handicapping the temps during the heart of winter). This will also be a good test to see if the period we have seen recently is actually the base state (+PNA, -EPO, eastern troughing) that we can expect through the CONUS for at least the first half of winter, which in my mind would be a winner. And some of what I am seeing suggests to me that the models may in fact be beginning the process of reverting to this. There are actually quite a few things I like seeing even while we may be experiencing this relax. The stratpv is actually getting hammered. This pretty much coincides with the CFS projections that it has had for several weeks and what the GEFS has been advertising recently. Also we are seeing quite a disconnect from the 10mb pv down to the 500mb one. Another sign that the pv is under extreme duress. Still want to see a few more days of runs but the evolution I believe we are over/around the pole beyond the extended is one that will actually feature some great blocking (think big red ball) with a correspondingly strong -AO. As far as the NAO domain I am starting to lean fairly strongly on that becoming a player as well (I favor an eastern based one at this time). Let's see what the next week or so of runs give us and whether the current projections are somewhat accurate. If they are, we could be setting up for a very favorable look come mid-December.

Fringed. That's alright. I will gladly give up these nickle/dimers to you snow starved shore men just as long as I get in on the death bands from all the N'easters we are going to get this year.

Playing with fire with the pv migrating over towards Alaska like that. You can already see the cold getting bottled up on the other side of the globe as N America gets flooded with PAC air and warmth. With the trough/east/ridge/west setup we would get the occasional shot of seasonal/slightly below cold from Canada but at this time of year that won't cut it.

Have only put two others on ignore for the winter throughout the years and they were after the 1'st of the year. And yet here we are a week into November and I am already putting you on ignore. Says a lot about your quality posting or should I say, lack of.

Overnight runs were pretty rough for the Tue/Wed possibilities. Wouldn't give up on it at this point but we have definitely seen a degrade in the look. The make or break day for me is roughly Sunday when we see how the models handle the energy in the different streams in western Canada. The following Friday has a little bit of potential but as has been mentioned we will be probably be dealing with stale cold where we need a manufacturing of cold (bombing low) or a fresh supply that is not evident on the models at this time. Looking at the EPS day 10/11 period has my interest somewhat (The previous Friday event will have a big say, think 50/50 low). Truth be told the whole period day 10 onward interests me. But we are talking the extended and the EPS is somewhat muddled on specific details but overall the pattern is favorable and we are seeing multiple pieces of NS energy diving down through this period.

As some have noted the overall look and evolution with our system next Tue/Wed has changed from possible coastal development to more a glorified frontal passage. And here is why we are basically seeing these differences. Now for those who read my post over the weekend I had noted that what we were seeing was interaction between the PV and NS energy in western Canada which was driving a deep drop of the upper latitude trough southward into the US. We were seeing PAC energy riding underneath unmolested and in front of this trough. It was actually a pretty good setup for possible southern/coastal low development. But what we are now seeing is that there is a partial interaction with the NS energy with PAC energy in the NW. What this is doing is twofold. First it is siphoning off energy from the NS which is weakening its interaction with the pv energy. Thus we are not seeing as vigorous solution between the two (shallower drop of the upper latitude trough). Second the interaction between some of the NS energy and the PAC energy is now creating lower latitude troughing into the SW. So now what we have is a flatter and more progressive flow running in front of these systems. Not a good look for possible coastal development. Now some may cringe when we start talking seeing snow from a frontal passage, me included. After all those that have followed weather in this region for a few years know how well that normally works out for us with the cold chasing the moisture. Normally not so well. But as depicted now on the Euro it actually is a pretty decent setup. Note the 'As depicted now' though. I will run you through some things to show you what I mean. Below we have the 700mb heights and vortice map shortly after precip has begun. Now what I want you to note is where we are seeing the energy situated. This is where we are seeing lift. Also take note of the where we are seeing the 700mb trough setting up. Now lets look at what we are seeing at 500 mbs. ***Just an aside but notice that the 700 mb trough is strongly positive at this stage. Shows the progressive nature of the flow at this point that pretty much shuts off our chances for coastal development.*** Quite often with a frontal passage we will see the lift at 500s displace slightly to the west of the lift seen at 700mbs. But this isn't so much the case here. What we are seeing is a pretty decent displacement to the west at 500mbs. ***Again note the strongly positive tilt of the trough. A very progressive look.*** Now you may be asking yourselves why the displacement of the 700 and 500mb vorticity/lift matters. The diagram below shows why. On the first image we have the general profile of what we generally see at mid levels when it comes lift during a cold front (less displacement between the different levels). As you can see the precip associated with lift shuts off quickly just as the cold air at lower levels starts to enter the picture. We all have seen this, where it rains and rains while we wait for the cold air to bleed in only to watch a couple of water logged flakes plop to the ground just before everything shuts down. Now the second pic shows what we are seeing on the EPS now. This further displacement westward at 500s is allowing the moisture transport to drive deeper into the cold air giving us a much longer period of snow. Now the above diagram (second pic) can be seen when it comes to the cold air. This is the 850's shortly after precip has started to fall. Notice that the 850s have already cleared the metros and we still have a fairly long duration of precip to follow. Quite often times we get the 850's and yet the surface temps are slow to respond. This doesn't look to be the case here. We are seeing a sharp frontal passage on the surface as well as we see 10-14 degree drops in 3 hours putting us quickly into the low/mid 30's' Some have probably noted on the Euro snow map above that the heavier axis of snow is located to the south. Why we are seeing this is that we have a heavier slug of moisture feeding northward from the deep south/gulf just in time to catch up and enhance the snowfall in southern MD/N Va. This moisture is actually driven northward by the lower latitude trough initiated by the PAC/NS energy from the very first map above. Now the above is a winning scenario in my mind for seeing our first accumulating snow region wide. But will this general look last until game time? Maybe, maybe not. If I were to place money I would probably put it on us seeing further changes. There is a lot of energy streaming through the PAC and NS flows not to mention the energy flowing around the pv. And this doesn't even bring into account all the energy at different levels. It is a very active pattern and to think the models are handling these parcels of energy correctly is probably asking too much.

For those that live and die by each op run on our possible system that is a week out. Don't. You are far better off looking at the ensembles which will give you a far more accurate read to the mid and longer range forecasts. And the ensembles continue to show improvement in regards to the potential. Below we see the 12z run of the EPS from yesterday. Note the drop of the trough in the east as well as the higher heights ridging in the northern Atlantic. Also look at the orientation of the height lines (black line) running through our region and off the coast. This really isn't a bad look. But now compare the above to what we see with the latest 00Z run. We are seeing a deeper and farther west drop of the trough as well as a shifting westward of the higher heights in the northern Atlantic. Notice how the height lines through our region and running off the coast have responded? We are seeing a much sharper north/south orientation of this feature. This alignment is more conducive to tucking any low we do see form closer into the coast as well as giving more room for that low to intensify. It is also a more favorable setup for any potential phasing of NS/PV energy rotating around the trough with PAC energy riding underneath it. This is a pretty good upgrade from the look we saw above. Now lets look at the surface in response to the 500's above. What we saw yesterday was high pressure situated in the northern Atlantic with cold air dropping into the Midwest and moving eastward. Notice the temp gradient through our region which is somewhat flat, SSW to ENE. With the means it washes out the lower pressure but generally it is situated a distance off our shores. Now this is the latest run. Notice that we have seen the higher pressures in the northern Atlantic shifted westward. We are also seeing the colder air dropping deeper southward and its eastward progression has slowed somewhat. In response we see a sharper N/S gradient of the temp profile in the east compared to the above. This setup is allowing low formation much closer to the coast then the above. This look here shows a good deal of promise at this time. Haven't posted the GEFS but that has improved as well. What we saw there was a pretty significant change at 500's over it's 12z run that brings it much more in line with the EPS. Now though I like what I am seeing as well as the trends my expectations are low. It is November after all. BUT... I do see the possibilities.

I can't help but remember the olden days when the GFS came in suppressed in this time frame that we knew we were golden. Through the different versions we have seen since we have still seen the tendency to suppress but nowhere near to the degree we were seeing 10 years ago. As far as the newest version? Still trying to get a feel. Sometimes I think it shows this tendency and other times not so much. Last week when this period first started to broach the extended I felt it had some decent potential. Just the general overall look/wavelengths showed promise. Nice to see that it has held and we are now within 7/8 days. But as you said Nov temps/climo can be a killer, especially for the metros. But the latest Euro solution is so close (bombing low off our coast) that I highly doubt temps would be an issue in such a scenario. All that said, Isn't it about time the Euro starts thinking about dashing our hopes small step by small step? And the GFS starts giving us false hope?

06Z GFS took a decent step towards the Euro for the day 7/8 system.

Euro/EPS is still biting on this period of time that it hinted at last week at the end of its extended with a Coastal/Miller B solution on its overnight run. What we are seeing is a weak impulse of PAC jet energy sliding to our south through VA. 500's dropping in behind it initiate coastal development of this energy. 500's are closing off and dropping down through southern MD/N VA. We are seeing such a robust 500 solution due to interaction between NS energy and PV energy as they drop in through the Mid-west. Below we can see the different pieces of energy that are involved. We have the NS (north stream) energy that has ridden up and over the EPO ridge and is now dropping down into the Midwest. Beside it we see the energy that is rotating around the PV and dropping in behind the NS energy in a favorable position for phasing. Underneath these features we see the PAC energy which will slide to the south then turn up through VA and then the coast. The combined NS/PV energy is dropping down behind the PAC energy, again in a favorable position, but the timing between these two features is slightly off. Thus we are seeing a phase up off the NE coast, far too late to benefit us. This results in a modest coastal for our region but nothing I would call explosive. But... speed up the NS/PV energy or slow down the PAC energy to decrease the distance/timing between the two and we probably have explosive development, which would probably occur farther south in a much more favorable local for the metros. Now we are talking features (energy in the midlevels) that the models will have difficulty handling at 7/8 days . Timing will always be suspect as well as the fact that these packets of energy may only be a figment of the models imagination (I start taking the models somewhat seriously with these features when we get within 3 days or so). Below we have the 10-1 snowfall map. Looks as if @C.A.P.E. will be taking a trip to Bethany/Rehoboth again. Maybe @WxWatcher007 will split the costs of a room with him. All I can say to them is, post pics. ETA: Actually some pretty good support from the EPS for development of a low in the east and/or off the coast during this time.

Kuchera snowfall map is even more impressive then the 10-1 you have here. Showing a foot+ through DC/Balt.

BWI: 11/16 DCA: 11/26 IAD: 11/16 RIC: 11/26 Tiebreaker: 8”

I hear rock/gravel lawns are easy to maintain.

Can picture you as a D & D guy... but Pokemon?

Just starting to see pumpkins now? Did you plant late or is this where your handy tip comes into play?

They just don't make sun flowers like they used too. Back in my day sun flower plants were 5+ feet tall with heads a foot across.

The problem with not tilling is that the soil gets compacted over time which hinders good root development on your plants. It also will hinder rainfall penetration into the soil where more of it will run off then in a looser soil. Also the more compacted soil will tend not to retain as much moisture. During the hotter portions of the summer you really want that extra moisture. One option if you don't want to till is to dig a hole and turnover the soil where your plants will actually be. This is what i normally do because unfortunately tilling is not an option at this time due to space constraints. Normally will mix fertilizer and prime top soil in at the same time as well. Typically you want the hole almost as wide as the plant will be above the surface as quite often the root system will match its expanse.

Couple things you can do here to help keep weeds down. First off, you really need to keep on top of the weeds throughout the summer. Never let them grow long enough where they flower otherwise they are just going to drop seeds for the coming year. You also want to throw the weeds in the trash and not just throw the pulled weeds back onto the ground in the garden. Just doing this and nothing else and you should see a noticeable reduction year over year. Second, at the end of the summer clear the garden but don't roto-tiller yet. Put down black tarp or plastic for several weeks as to where hopefully the sun will create enough heat on the surface of the soil to kill any seeds that have been deposited over the summer. If you roto-tiller before hand all you do is push these seeds deeper into the soil where not enough heat can be generated. Now if you are dealing with an invasive weed that spreads (Such as I have been dealing with a Morning Glory ivy ever since we bought the house) you need to actually spray that with a weed killer instead of pulling it. Spraying it will help kill the root system from which more plants will spring up even after you pull the original weed. I have used this method the last 3 years and it has just about been eradicated after years of it taking over a decent portion of the garden. One benefit to rotoing in the leafs in the fall is that they will compost quicker in the soil then on the surface. They will also tend to help keep the soil from packing as much over the winter as the leaves will create air pockets as they decompose.

Beaver dam,that brings back memories. Used to go swimming there as a teenager.

That sucks. Wondering myself what I will have when I get back from vacation next sun/mon. Hopefully it's just a bunch of weeds. That's the only drawback to a summer vacation, wondering if your garden survived without your pampering.

Had the same problem. But not only did I see growth under the feeder we were also seeing plants shooting up 10-15 feet away as the squirrels were stealing the seeds and taking them elsewhere to eat. The other problem with the feeder was the fact that my dogs considered their own personal buffet with the animals it attracted. Finally took it down after a year's trial.

Having our first tomato tonight for dinner with BLT's.

We have a senior community a couple of blocks away so often times I will drop some produce off there. Might look into the local food bank this year as well. Of course neighbors and co-workers get their share as well. Splitting at the forks? First I have ever heard of that. If the tomatoes are struggling you might want to try some calcium nitrate on them. Of course you probably already know that.