showmethesnow

Nowhere near the experience and knowledge of those on here when it comes to severe but this coming Friday into Saturday has my interest somewhat.

Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

Measured 4.5" at 3:00 am here in Hanover just across the MD line. If I would have snow boarded was probably talking nearer to 6 all things considered. Went to bed at 7:30 so didn't witness it for fact but looking through the layers of the snow fall I see no indications we ever turned over to sleet or rain. So it looks to be an all snow event. Except for a brief period of time in the late afternoon where the snow got somewhat icey for the most part we were probably talking around 10:1 ratio snow and probably closer to 12:1 by the time I went to bed. But the ratios don't mean a thing when a light to somewhat moderate snow is falling into 33-34 degree temps and the ground is being heated by the deadly March sun. Temps did finally hit freezing at sundown and then that was when decent accumulations started occurring. So final call here of 4.5".

12K is coming in wetter and farther north with the max strip of precip by hour 12.

Ratios once you get out into the farther NW subs will probably be 10:1 possibly 12:1 around the favored locals around the PA line.

Just don't get arrested for indecent exposure. Or do. Would make for a great conversational piece on these boards for a long time to come.

Keep us posted for when they hoist the flood warnings for you.

I noticed that. Snow maps are pretty useless on the southern edge as much of that was actually showing sleet. And that was fluctuating from run to run depending on precip being shown. So though it looked as if we were maybe getting a shift southward of the snowfall in fact that was nothing more then it just showing an increase of qpf totals. If you actually looked at the soundings you could see there has been a shift in the temp profile northward run over run, more so to the east then the west. Right now the battle ground in my mind between mostly conversational snow and/or sleet and shovelable snow is probably just north of DC running east through Balt. Now how that adjusts will probably be determined by what amount of heating we do in fact see on the ground as well as what dews are looking like when the precip does move in. If we do see a spike in temps and/or dews then we can probably shift that battleground northward as we will see deeper low level warmth that needs to initially be overcome. That lends less time where the temp profile will support snow before the warm nose pops in over top. Conversely less heating/lower dews and you can shift the battle ground south. At this time I am liking the potential for 10-15 miles N/W of the cities especially the favored locations around the PA line. Seeing a general increase on projected qpf and tend to believe we will continue to see that increase. Thinking at this time there is a decent shot we see some 10"+ reports somewhere up in that favored local as I would not be surprised if we see some 10-1 to 12-1 ratios as we see some good lift through the DGZ at times in that region. The only limiting factor will be ground temps in that case. Keep the temps around freezing for the majority of the event and they may be golden.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle?

Not too bad, sort of mirrors my thoughts though I would tweak it a little. Probably go with a little more of a SW to NE axis of snow fall. So move the western snowfall south a touch and the eastern northward a touch. Also think there will be a tighter gradient of the snowfall north of the 2-4 zone. So shift the 4-8 southward into most of Carroll and into northern Balt county. Think just north of that we will see 6-10 around the PA line. eta: Also wouldn't be surprised if NE MD does a little better then projected if the low is a little stronger off the coast.

Where are you seeing their latest forecast? All I see is the one posted from 9:45 last night.

NAM twins are in and they continue the theme of what I have seen over the last 24+ hours on guidance and what I sort of expected to see. The tendency on guidance has been to amp (buckle) the flow a touch, away from the flat somewhat zonal look we were seeing on previous runs as the storm runs underneath us. So what does that mean? That means we would see the initial low take a more southern track (blue line) to our south initially as there is a better press at 500's behind it vs. the more zonal look (black line). But then you notice that we see blue track start hooking north as it hits the coast in what is typical of a Bench Mark track (track quite often seen with big east coast storms) vs the black track which is running more OTS. The reason for this is that with the slightly better buckling at 500's the low has more room to grow so it strengthens quicker and stronger vs the more zonal flow. This strengthening will have a tendency to pull the low pole-ward adding a more northerly component to the track. And this is what we have generally seen over the guidance the last 24 hours or so. This is a good thing as it allows our region to be under the influence of a stronger low longer vs. a weaker low that is running for the most part OTS. What is a shame though is that we don't have high pressure extending over top of us. Throw that into the mix and we more then likely have a MEC or even a KU from DC up into the NE. Now at this point most of our precip (rain/snow) is related to WAA (warm air aloft) as the low runs to our south and very little of it is related to a CCB (cold conveyor belt) transport of moisture from the low off the coast. With a quicker stronger low to our south you will see a better response with precip totals but you are also seeing a more aggressive push of a warm nose at mid-levels as well. And this can be seen with the latest NAMs. The question at that point is, are the increase in rates enough to balance out the stronger push of warm as they mix it out? In the NAMs case not so much as they do shift northward somewhat with the rain/snow line. Now one thing I will be curious to see. The NAMs are just now picking up on strengthening the low sooner as they see a more favorable 500 setup. And this is happening within 12 hours of game time. But after that initial quicker strengthening they then slow done that strengthening as to where we see roughly equivalent pressures when the low is off the coast compared to our flatter runs. I question if that will be the case here if in fact they are right with the stronger low to our south. I would tend to believe that we would see a stronger low off the coast then what the NAM's currently show (again, if the models are correct with the lows earlier solution). The implications could be that we actually see a somewhat organized and stronger CBB flow setup soon enough as to have a somewhat meaningful impact for our region. This would favor areas more so in the east/northeast portions of our region.

Just started looking myself. But here you go if you want to look for yourself, though it doesn't have the Euro. Will glance at the Euro in let you know in a minute or two. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Not the foot or so I thought we had a shot at just a couple of days ago. But I won't throw this away.

And yet Eskimo Joe will still complain and down play it.

$200 bucks and I can almost guarantee you won't see rain.

I'm with you. Any snow falling is a win in my book even if it doesn't lay. Nothing worse then 32-33 degrees and rain. eta: Actually I lied, 95+ degrees and 70+ humidity is worse.

Not really going to dive into it right this second but glancing at it I would say the improvements we are seeing on the snow maps are in relation to the better precip/rates we see. It is helping to knock down the warm nose we are seeing poking in between 750-850 mb. That said, though I really hate the +snow depth maps because they are pretty much POS's, I would say it probably is far closer to reality for the cities and S/E then those 10:1's.

GFS just came in with under .5 inches. Any further cuts and you have to start questioning if rates can overcome the surface temps to give us anything more meaningful then a sloppy inch for the cities.

Never saw this as a heavy precip event Setup just a few runs ago argued for a somewhat high precip event and I do believe the models were spitting out 1-1.5 inches. But with the progressively flatter flow we are losing that.

Just one left. Thinking about it I better run to the store and see if they have any left. Kind of sucks they are a seasonal beer.

Think you are in a rough spot no matter how you look at it, besides a possibly brief flip as the storm exits stage right. You would need the OBX exit solutions with a much more rapid intensification of the low then any model is currently projecting. Then you would have to hope that the low doesn't hug the coast. I guess that isn't impossible. But it is probably unlikely as we are within 36 hours of the event. But there is hope. $200 dollars for a room for the night as well as all the hot dogs you can eat. I will even splurge and spend the big bucks for the all beef ones. Can't ask for a better deal.

06Z GFS was a step back in the snowfall. Biggest issue here was it cut precip totals through the cities (DC/Balt) to under .5 inches. Farther south with the low across our south and exits the coast in a good spot (OBX) but it is slower to ramp up. Much better temp profile through the column with no indications of issues with a warm nose at mid-levels. Would be mostly or all snow through the cities. Throw a little quicker developing low as it exits the coast into the mix and I think those in the cities and N/W would be very satisfied.

Actually a somewhat significant difference between the 06z NAM twins on how they handle the low to our south and when it is off the coast. Which is somewhat surprising considering we are getting into such short lead times and about the only major difference between the two is on resolution. 3K is running the low 50-100 miles south of the 12k as it runs to our south and also is much slower on amping the low up. By the time it is off MD's shores we have a 1000 mb low on the 3K vs 996 mb with the 12k. This weaker low results in the low being 100 miles or so farther east as it is slower to make its turn northward. Winning combo here would be a blend of the two. Southern track through the south on the 3k with the quicker ramp up of the 12K as it is hitting the coast. One other thing to note is that the 3k is drier then the 12k. Looking at roughly an inch+ through the DC/Balt corridor vs. .75+". We will need these rates as going by the 3k soundings we will be fighting a warm nose in the mid levels (850-750mb) even into the NW burbs.