burgertime
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Everything posted by burgertime
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Foothills and mountains very much still in play. Just because it moved south doesn't man the bullseye moves south with it if the cold air doesn't do it's thing. WNC is still in the best position right now.
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Well when everyone acknowledges how weenie it is, does it really make you a weenie? I think that's probably a safe bet but I would drop the ZR a little and up the snow.
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Yep, gonna start putting more emphasis on the short range models as well. Also for CLT to RDU seeing what's happening real time is gonna be crucial. I'm really curious to see if the 12z NAM trends colder..I'm almost willing to bet it does.
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Thanks for sharing!
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I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify.
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I give that .000000000001% of verifying.
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You really should haha. Only +30 from upstate to GSO
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By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54
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Thanks. Just trying to figure out if that's the map I'm looking at in SV. I'll assume it is.
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Quick question James. Is this just the new PARA run of the GFS? I don't see it on stormvista but they do have a parallel GFS map.
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Because it's driven by easterly winds the warm nose won't be as big of a factor according to WPC. So this really could paste you guys for once.
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Don't worry, average temp here during the winter is around 40 degrees with rain almost every day and when it does get cold and there's moisture it's usually 33 and rain. I've seen one good snow here and it only stayed on the ground for like 1 day. Got so cold the canals froze over and couldn't get any moisture. Every winter I get triggered with flashbacks
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From WPC
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Wow. Everyone should read this.
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This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason.
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6z GFS is a touch colder than 12z also not as wet. This storm can turn either way for folks east of I-40.
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Actually looking at P-type CLT gets 2 inches QPF of sleet. Areas around GSP get massive ZR and GSO cashes in outside of the mountains.
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Hi-res NAM has WNC all snow during the heart of the storm.
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This is gonna be a good run. By 60 CLT gets in on the heavy snow action.
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I-40 WNC special...
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Better CAD signature showing up on this run as well.
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@54 NC is getting hammered with.....something? Looks like a massive sleet fest in Concord with heavy snow in GSO. Looks a lot better this run.
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Not as good @51 because the high slides out....again though looks better to our north to my eyes for the general setup.
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@48 most of NC has just cold enough temps at 850....could be a sleet fest or snow it's close.
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4hrs of sleep after an epic Christmas party...I'm barely making it haha. Also this run looks better to me. If that arctic air can keep pressing and this becomes a trend there will be some fun clown maps again.
