dseagull

Thanks for the responses. I grew up in Salem county and now live on barnegat bay in ocean county. I used to call this North Jersey up here. Sorry to derail, just useful in interpretation of forecasts.

Honest question. Where are thr lines between North, Central, and South Jersey? I read these geographic descriptors so often and I never know what people are referencing. Thanks.

Happy new years to all. Let this year be full of better everything. And snow... please...

Honestly, I'm just glad I didn't get a dispatch to rescue a hammered boater by this time ... (some years wind up having interesting endings.) Let the deep freeze begin, so I can finally enjoy my 2 months off from 24/7 work 621 calls for service this year. It's been a good one. Have a few thousand pictures of weather events to sort through for my upcoming first publication.

Have some minor damage here on the coast of barnegat bay. Was no joke. About 90 seconds of heavy dime/nickle size stones.

Now....

Then.....

Absolutely insane storm here on barnegat bay. Worst storm since April 1st 2023 when I had to rescue stranded boaters before the line of tornadic storms.

Absolutely crushed. I'm amazed that I've now seen my two worst storms in the past decade on April 1 2023 and December 31 2024.

Waretown, NJ.... strongest storm I have seen since April 1, 2023 Absolutely insane that this is happening on the last day of the year in December. I'm baffled, and half expecting someone to call me for a tow or boat salvage in the middle of it. Good grief.

I asked my favorite A.I. program to give me an accurate forecast for the upcoming 3 weeks in regard to snow in the subforum. Its created a short video, where weenies were jumping from rooftops and bridges. I then asked A.I. to zoom in on the faces of said weenies.... I gasped... It was I.

Fair enough. I agree with most of that. Especially the politics and ego.

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning. The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take. These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say. There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county. Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped. I won't argue with that. But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable. So much more is involved, however.

Sensationalism sells, especially on the heels of a highly publicized and terrible disaster just a week earlier. But "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is always a good policy to live by. Or the 7 Ps... "Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance," in that one should never let their guard down, especially regarding weather. In the end, people are going to do as they wish. It's still a free country. As a first responder, I can't emphasize how important it is to remain fluid, but at the same time direct with communication. That's literally the most important part of emergency planning coordinator. This only becomes convoluted when politics or sensationlism enter the equation. The windshield wiper approach simply doesn't work with the public. Florida did a great job as a whole in terms of communicating with the public.

Thanks. I've always wondered about this. I understand the philosophy and how the scientific means of measurement and classification process goes, but it seems imperfect with regard to how the public may perceive it. Im also aware of plenty of storms that have verified. Some have greatly exceeded, leading to re-classification.

Did any station verify 120mph sustained winds? No buoys did. Is this a common theme with most storms?

Not much terrain to impact structure significantly, even with a close pass. Baring any dry air intrusion, which seems unlikely, the next 24 hours are going to be full of amazing satellite loops.

Yucatan is going to get raked if this current motion doesn't correct to ENE. Losing latitude still with every passing satellite shot.

Huh? Lucky to survive until December? Entire Gulf Coast evacuation? Drama...

Brilliant... probably fun right up until Time of Death. Legacy of being a future internet meme/gore video...smh

The moment of landfall radar image will be one to remember. Beautiful, yet terrifying. Awesome storm to track, and I'm amazed at how well the mets took modeled data and formed their own consensus and stuck with it. If anyone wants an analog for a well-forecasted and quickly moving carribean gyre system, this is the one. What I'd do to be a fly on the wall when forecasting began over 72 hours ago.