Chinook

For the weight of snow on rooftops, basically QPF would matter, and the ratio wouldn't. Of course, that's not the only factor, but we are starting to get to a point where weight could collapse some roofs.

These are the ensemble plumes for Denver (DIA). Even if we are at the ensemble average of 2.78", that's 27.8" with 10:1 ratios, or 25.0" with 9:1 ratios, as the value of the snow-liquid ratio would get lower as the snow packs down under its own weight. And, of course, there 100% chance that the total QPF will be higher as you go to 6000-7000 ft.

I got kind of chilly while taking these pictures. I figured it was nearly 70 degrees in the daytime, so I should wear a t-shirt to take sunset pics. Nope. 55 degrees and windy

I wasn't able to get on the internet yesterday evening, because Comcast broke down or something. Now the GFS has 58" for me!!!! Better go to the store. Again.

This could be 1.15"--> 13.8" of snow at a 12:1 ratio in *just* 24 hours. I am really hoping that none of this happens on Thursday.

The Euro has over 20" from Denver all the way over to the Oklahoma panhandle.

We may really have to watch this one. The normally stingy WPC 168-hour values have upped our area to 0.3" - 0.7" of QPF for the week (0.9" for the Palmer Divide.)

Possible scenarios-- the models are not really in agreement, but snow could happen on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday if it does happen.

Rain

anybody know why the SPC mesoanalysis shows the radar with only blue/green colors with some actual values of 40-50dBz detected on local radars?

We are getting closer and closer to March. My thinking is that generally moderate La Nina winters should correlate with a higher than average number of tornadoes in the USA for the season. As far as stronger (negative) MEI numbers, years such as 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011, and 2018 should be similar to this year, at least as January and February numbers. Possibly even 1996 could be an analog for a La Nina. total tornadoes / number of F1+ or EF1+ 1996: 1173/430 1999: 1339/530 2000: 1075/352 (much weaker year for F1+ tornadoes) 2008: 1692/707 2011: 1703/909 (outlier year) 2018: 1123/501 perhaps my best guess for the activity of the year might a prediction of EF1+ tornadoes as an average of these F1+ or EF1+ numbers, with less weight toward the 2011 number.

Radar loop for Denver metro area for our recent storm http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_24_2021_radar_loop.html

I am thinking about doing some more things with regard to making loops of radar and other maps where I need to a screen-capture. I have normally been using a click-and-drag method in a simple picture editor. I want to switch to some Windows utility that can create screen captures with the exact same dimensions, with the exact same pixels of the screen captured over and over. This is because it looks better when I produce the loop. Any recommendations?

my place got 3-4" 12" of snow in downtown should've gotten a winter storm warning

5" of snow reported in downtown Denver.

The storm is starting here. The radar shows some slightly bubbly or convective areas of snow. My place has a few snowflakes so far. 700mb winds are E or SE. Surface winds are NE, E, or SE. Edit: winter weather advisory for Denver city.

The 18z NAM and the 18z GFS are very different for Denver on this storm, but have less differences for my immediate area. I suppose the models are just having a hard time finding out the mesoscale details for the upslope snow band. A winter weather advisory has been issued for south and west of the Denver metro.

The GFS and Canadian have storms on Thursday and Sunday. The GFS show a concentration of snow close to Boulder with the NE upslope component on Thursday. Overall, the entire area may have directly east winds at 700mb, which would be snowy for all areas around I-25. The Euro has 0.3" to 0.6" of QPF on Thursday for the Front Range cities, but nothing after that. Some GFS ensemble members are snowy for Sunday, some are not.

For Salina KS, February 11th-17th (7 days) averaged 29.7 degrees F below average. Wichita had 28.4 degrees below average.

My loops from storms this month. I decided to make a 30-frame GFS surface loop from the whole last week because it was such a big cold wave and a big snowstorm for NW Ohio and snowy for many other areas. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_12_19_2021_GFS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_15_2021_radar_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_30_2021_500mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_30_2021_850mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_30_2021_GFS_sfc_loop.html

Models have been showing some snow for Colorado, next week maybe Thursday-Friday. the plot like this for 7-day difference from normal sort of ran out of colors...

I wonder how many continuous hours that some part of Texas has had a cold-weather-related watch, warning, or advisory.

My place just got 4" of snow (3.5" on the low end), which is more snow in the last 4 hours than I have in any 24-hour time period since October. "Fun Surprise" -- unfortunately I have to drive somewhere tomorrow, but the roads will probably be ok by then. At least it is certainly warmer than 0 degrees this time around. radar from 7:44PM

Heavy snow formed around Fort Collins and has moved toward me-- mesoscale snow blob.

flakes