Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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Velocity difference is not too high, but it has the classic hole shape of a tornadic supercell.
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This is obviously keeping the chances for a tornado in the south San Antonio metro pretty high. Right now it is a radar-based tornado warning (no confirmation)
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I don't know what happened to the velocity scans in the last minute, but it looks strong
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As we have said in recent discussions, the recent snows at the low elevations have turned to rains and severe weather watches (as of yesterday) and primarily spring-like weather is in the forecast. So, it must be time to start the summer discussion. Monday's weather may be a very similar rainy pattern compared to yesterday (Tuesday.)
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KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now.
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4/28-- (Only) 15% hatched hail probabilities for S Texas, with 5%/15%/15% for some areas near the Red River also HRW-NMMB at 27 hours
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Radar at the time of the Truscott, TX tornado (earlier today)
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And sometimes, tornadoes are right in the middle of a squall line?
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I'm glad this isn't in Loveland, CO
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Here's a very distinctive hook echo and possible tornado
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Finally, we are just a few hours away from this relatively weak severe weather event. Considering all things, there could have been a much better tornado day with this upper level trough, but it doesn't look like a big day today. Here are possible severe thunderstorm tracks from the HRRR today, includes maybe a little more activity than I might have expected for some of TX, OK. (17z HRRR, up to 08z)
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1st severe thunderstorm watch of the year for Colorado (east of I-25)
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The models have been kind of a mess on this one. The NWS digital forecast has 0.50"-0.80" for a large part of the area. The NAM and GFS seem to make a little more sense than before, as they seem to be trying to forecast some convective rainfall blobs, even with the cooler temperatures.
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I think this might be a large tornado heading for Douglas, GA. There's 119 kt gate-to-gate shear.
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There's a chance that there's a TDS at Jennings, FL, but the velocity data is kind of weird, so I don't know
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Enhanced risk for SE TX has completely busted unless there's somehow 80 severe weather reports after midnight
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two possible tornadoes in Louisiana
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Areas of convection will develop in AL, GA, and SC. The MCS that will happen tonight in TX/LA will move east, weaken, and possibly provide some outflow boundaries for later convection. I think the parameters are pretty decent. The SPC currently has 15% wind/ 15% hatched hail/ 5% tornado UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to ENH for parts of Alabama and Georgia, with up to 10% hatched tornado risk.
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Yes, Larimer County had 2-4 drought class improvements in the last 3 months, according to the change chart. Alright! How about this idea: let's not have some huge fire this year.
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My place has gotten some light snow tonight. Fort Collins has been 13.4 degrees below average since 4/12. At the beginning of the month, the GEFS seemed to say that we were in for quite a few above normal days. So, days 10-15 of the GEFS were very wrong, as far as I can figure out.
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Most models have a cluster of storms in east Texas, with possible higher storm-relative helicity and higher dew points around 68F. This part could be quite messy, but it could result in several tornadoes reports. Otherwise, models show convection near the cold front, possibly 00z-06z, which could be somewhat significant as well. Perhaps one of the more interesting questions is if any storms will go up near the dryline. So, overall, kind of a complicated scenario.
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As for me, I measured 4.4" to 5.0" on Monday night. CoCoRAHS reports had roughly 4.0" and 0.40" of liquid equivalent. It was melting pretty quickly yesterday, even with temperatures in the 30's.
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New snow storm incoming
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Thurs-Saturday snow totals. My place got about 3" and 0.55" of the combination of rain and snow
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My place has probably 1.5" on the ground (had some maybe 0.1" of rain before that) -- north areas may have gotten 1.5" to 3"
