Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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tornado tracked about 17-18 miles in 12 minutes
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new tornado by Cambridge, north of Des Moines. (radar might have seen the initial circulation right next to the radar a few minutes ago)
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this was a tornado that may have been brief (might mentioned as Greenbush, a small town)
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There might be a tornado getting going around Villisca.
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The 00z models pretty much get things going in mid-Iowa
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This morning's WRF-NSSL predicts a storm complex going into Illinois well before a main line of storms.
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storm chaser seeing a tornado near Mustang
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Given the day-3 information, I would guess that there is a significant chance of tornadoes with discrete cells in the Midwest on Tuesday.
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75mph wind measured near Wichita city limits, I assume that was quite possibly the same with some of the power outage areas mentioned Radar said up to 3" hail with the big tornado storm
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here's the view from KFDR
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So far there have been many wind reports and hail reports, a 100mph wind at Salina Kansas, flood reports, one tornado warning in Oklahoma
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This supercell had the rear flank downdraft wrap all the way around, now there is an unconfirmed tornado warning.
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SPC says MODERATE risk, including 45% hatched for hail and wind in similar areas. The 45% risk for wind is about twice the size of the 45% risk for hail. (but not extensive)
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The 00z NAM already has a potent setup for the day-4 forecast (72 hours, Sunday night)
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This is measured by downtown-- 62 knots ( Houston Dunn Helistop airport?)
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I do not know if this was a TDS on the north side of Houston, but radar base velocities showed winds of 70-120mph in the rain clouds, close to the surface
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this whole tornado warning may in fact be a nasty combo of wind and hail
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that tornado warning on the squall line is now just 37 miles from Houston
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There's a new tornado watch centered on Houston
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the weather always has a lot of question marks
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I made a loop of the upper level charts, since this was a high-impact severe weather outbreak https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/May_5_10_2024_500mb_loop.html
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It was kind of neat to see 4 or 5 or 6 supercells with hail lined up yesterday from Mexico to Texas to the Gulf of Mexico
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Yesterday was a weird day with a couple of rounds of severe weather for South Texas. The first round was much earlier in the afternoon or morning. The enhanced risk seems to have been pretty good.
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note: 5% tornado outlook
