Chinook

The far-West heat has been quite bad. Needles, California, had a daily high temperature record of 122 recently, beating a value of 121. I have barely ever seen that kind of temperature in a populated area. Sorry you guys had +5F for June, that is, 3 to 5.6 degrees above normal for June. Must have been rough. Actually I had my own 100 to deal with one day. Looks like Las Vegas is 118 is right now, which apparently breaks the all-time record. 1-2" hail with supercells down by Pueblo and Colorado Springs right now

this is out in the Gulf

satellite and measured winds

By the way, did the hurricane hunters complete a recon before landfall at 11z? I can't tell.

The recon just said 969mb as per this plot. I'm not sure if this means it has lost any max wind speeds in the last couple of hours?

Kingston- 38 kt gusting to 70 kt (just above cat-1 strength gust)

pressure seems normal. light rain. what's to worry about

Any historians know if there has been a Cat-5 equivalent in ANY basin on July 1st of ANY year?

tornadoes by Iowa City earlier

Three non-confirmed tornado warnings

Models show that there is a high chance for a squall line, with likely some severe reports, to affect parts of Iowa and possibly Illinois. Dew points will be a balmy 75 degrees in Iowa, with some impressive deep-layer shear for July.

This is an incredible measurement. Not many places are close enough to a major hurricane to measure 105 knots gust.

sort of looks like a skull or face with its mouth open

Barbados radar is seeing the eye/eyewall pretty well now

Nice pics!

This model has several severe storms, so probably at least a slight risk in the area.

The NY area really had something like 200 or 300 storm reports a few days ago. Now, it looks like several more severe storms will be in the general area. As per last night's models, I thought this might be a slight risk, as advertised yesterday, by the SPC. Now, the enhanced risk seems alright.

from Tuesday

some more tornado reports near the Des Moines metro

I saw this cool shelf cloud in Toledo. Much of the same thing. It perhaps was the best view of a shelf cloud I've had in my entire life. (I didn't get a picture.) Then I drove straight toward it, that is, I had to drive to Detroit and back. Rainy! Saw some lightning bolts! But otherwise, terrible.

Possible non-supercell tornado. Maybe some Iowa people have a great view of this towering storm with 6000 J/kg of CAPE

With today's enhanced risk forecast, there has been less damage than some recent slight risk days in the Northeast. And such is the nature of severe weather forecasting.

There are some very high dew points in New England and New York today. There are three current severe storms shown in this image. Thanks for taking the heat away from Ohio. I really needed it. Maximum believable dew point is 76, I think, which is very bad. Nashua NH reports 80 dew point but it might be wrong.

Watching lightning has got to be fun, if you are staying up late tonight in Chicago. It seems like limited amounts of flooding are a bigger threat than wind gusts.

new confirmed tornado