Chinook

We're using the GFS, which used to be the parallel-GFS. They were testing out the new computer code, but now it's the operational one. Not sure if there were any bug-fixes which would have made the crazy 30" snowstorms go away. I personally think the models have been all over the place with weather patterns at 7 days+. So good luck trying to find a fantasy snowstorm. There may be some. The two good things about Mountain Standard Time now are: more light at 7:00AM, and the evening models come in 1 hour earlier, so the 00z NAM-12km should be partially done by 7:30PM, 00z GFS, maybe 9:00 and later.

If we could only make some posts about H2O coming out of the air, rather than drought, this discussion would be great. I got my plane ticket to go see my family in Ohio. It is the first time in 2 years. I wonder if Raindancewx can beat the models and tell me if it going to snow when I go on my journeys. Of course, I won't share detailed personal information.

There is an upper level ridge in the West, such that 0C is above 700 mb all over the West, over to California. The 0C isotherm is much closer to sea level in the East. Maybe I should post one of these per day. This is a 3000 mile wide cross section that makes the Rocky Mountains look close to the Appalachians

Toledo had an average temperature 60.6 for the month, so it tied for 3rd warmest October, tying with October 1920. It was the 2nd wettest October, 7.43" of rain, beating October 2001 (6.26".) (I remember October 2001 in Toledo.) Toledo also had its 9th warmest September and 6th wettest September (6.18"). Toledo got 13.61" in September-October (61 days.) This is considerably more rain than Toledo averages over the summer. (92 days)

Temperatures have fallen from 72 degrees on Friday to only a high of 39 degrees this afternoon. That's quite a drop of temperatures, but the cold front was not too interesting. There are a few areas of rain/snow/virga on radar right now. Most areas in northern Colorado could get some very light rain or snow, up to 0.1" in the next couple of days. The northern mountains should get some QPF values of 0.5"-1.0" over the next few days. I have taken a few pictures of lenticular clouds and tree colors. The trees have been nice. Here is a distinct lenticular cloud from 10/22. Longer-term forecasts just mostly have a warm-up, so not too much to talk about. Our area will finish at 2.0-3.0F above average for October, so pretty decently above average. Total precipitation was very low for me, at 0.12" unless some rain shower happens before midnight.

My area had peak wind of 44 kt at the airport today Models show pretty cold on Halloween (Sunday) with snow near Cheyenne and the north border

new confirmed tornado near Sparks, LA (Deweyville TX)

Convection-allowing models show a localized tornado threat tomorrow.

Here is a NAM 3-km cross-section east-to-west through the dryline tomorrow. The warm moist sector will have the moisture confined to being below 800mb. This dryline has very low relative humidities west of it. You can see the slight increase in potential contours to 307K-310K. (lines on this plot). It's also cool to see the high-res models have elevations above 700mb (roughly 10000 ft) in SW Colorado, built into the land system. You can also see the evidence of the cooler air coming in to the Rockies, as the -12C isotherm dips from above 500mb's elevation to around 600mb. several storms could develop with over 2000 J/kg of CAPE and 0-3km storm-relative helcity of 300-400m2/s2 and 0-6km shear of 50 kt (sounding near west Oklahoma)

The GFS analyzed this as 943 mb

tornado in northern Missouri

I am going to post these because it may be the last interesting day to post updraft helicity tracks for the Midwest for the year. There seems to be some agreement on the updraft helicity tracks in central IL, but my own idea is that the higher tornado threat might be SE Missouri.

Dew points of 60-70 will exist southeast of the cold front on Sunday, with a low pressure in Iowa/Missouri. In general, the models have strong winds at 850mb-500mb, leading to some areas of 0-3km storm-relative helicity of 250m2/s2 or better. Models have 40-60 kt of wind at 500mb over Arkansas/ Missouri, leading to 0-6km shear in that range of values.

It's now 10/17. And Raindance was... right. A compact 500mb low is cutting off right now near the Sierra Nevada, and will track through Wyoming, bringing snow to some areas of the Sierra Nevada to Wyoming. Winter storm watch for some areas of Wyoming

Here are some more maple leafs. Well, not Toronto Maple Leafs. 2nd picture: ash. 3rd picture: some type of bush where the leaves resemble maple leaves.

mountains partially clouded (Wednesday)

My area had a few minutes of rain, graupel, and lightning, and even thunder somewhat close by. Then, today turned out to be pretty nice, not too windy like Cheyenne.

TDS about 7 mi from Dodge City

confirmed tornado near Copeland KS

Interesting weather note this evening. The upper level low over the Southwest is bringing in so much wind, the flags are flying at Dodger Stadium, the likes of which I've almost never seen for a southern California baseball game.

location of two confirmed tornado warnings several minutes ago (3:53pm Central), also, prelim. tornado report near Jacksonville IL

This is a 12z HRRR run for tomorrow night. The afternoon-evening SBCAPE should be a narrow area of possibly 500 J/kg to 1500 J/kg in western Kansas and down into the Texas Panhandle. Models show convective development. I wonder if the deep layer shear could be too powerful for supercells, given the limited CAPE. As in, the shear could be so great it disrupts updrafts.

might as well post this. NWS point forecasts for RMNP have 4"-8" at high elevations

confirmed tornado at Johnson, OK (0157z radar showed a TDS)

new confirmed tornado warning east of OKC