Chinook

The storm is getting closer. This is the Euro depiction that shows that northern Colorado would get 1-3" with sort of a warm advection sector to the storm. The higher elevations of Colorado will get 3-6" or better with upslope, and maybe over 6" as the upslope continues for perhaps some hours (beyond what's shown on this chart). As for the Midwest, Nebraska/Iowa and the Upper Midwest will have the potential for snow over 6"-12". Kansas and possibly northern Missouri could have some sleet or freezing rain. It seems several models have shown low snowfall for eastern Colorado, and this is kind of disappointing, considering the 500mb is so close to the right spot.

My place dropped from 60 degrees to 29 degrees. Look at South Dakota-- they were in the mid 60's, then blizzard, apparently 49.7 degrees colder.

It looks like we really may have something to track over the next 6 days. There could me more snow in Kansas than at my place.

change over to snow in Minneapolis

14 years ago (December 20-21, 2006) view from apartment building

For those interested, this radar web page provides a little better functionality to the new NWS web page. The boxes labeled "3" to "15" on the left hand side are zoom levels (you can zoom out by clicking a different zoom level) https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

wind warnings and blizzard warnings. NWS point forecast for me shows 52mph wind gusts before midnight.

Today, my area has a few lenticular clouds and mostly clear skies. I am hoping to see Saturn and Jupiter next to each other in about 1-2 hours. Yesterday, my area had about 39 degrees in mid-afternoon when other areas were warmer, with adiabatic mixing. Today, my area is up to the upper 50's. edit: I got lucky. Sometimes the lenticular cloud at sunset is tough to find. I also saw Jupiter and Saturn in the binoculars a few minutes ago.

Some of the ensemble means do indeed have a trough in Utah/Colorado-- about what you want to see, I suppose, if you were going to put your hope in any storm in Colorado at 240 hours in the future. edit: to a degree, this month has showed signs of looking like an El Nino upper level pattern, with positive PNA and cooler temperatures in the Southern Plains and Southeast, and even, nearly a true Miller-A storm for the East Coast.

Tomorrow, there will be something that I expect several times during a La Nina winter: high winds, from a northern jet stream disturbance. Southeast Wyoming and Larimer County (6000-9000 ft) have high wind watches tomorrow.

For those in search of a new radar site- also extra helpful for severe storms. The boxes numbered "3" to "15" on the left are zoom levels. https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

possible synoptic setup of the polar cold front, arctic cold front, warm front, and stationary arctic front on the 23rd

My area got about 0.5" of snow last night, and Denver got around 2". Saturn and Jupiter will be (or were) the closest that they have appeared in our sky in many years.

Totals: Dec 10-12: 0.17" precip, 1.6" snow Dec 12-13: 0.08" precip, 1.0" snow

I definitely made a mistake on that. Congrats to those in Oklahoma and Arkansas getting snow. Here are some snow reports and radar from the region.

My area got about 2" yesterday it could always be worse--- Denver, Colorado , December 1990 high and low temps

I can't remember the last time I saw a winter storm warning for Oklahoma.

It looks like KFTG radar got repaired ahead of schedule.

I guess we are at the point where the NWS digital forecast contains the snowfall total for both storms, since they are so close together in time.

sunset tonight I guess our area will get a second (mostly light) snow event from a northwest-flow shortwave on Saturday night. It may start to come in as early as 18z Saturday.

Tonight's No-Accumualtion Model (NAM) is doing the exact opposite: lots of accumulation for Colorado, New Meixco, ansd southeast Nebraska. I think these values are overdone, to some degree.

The models have struggled with some of the features of the upcoming storm system. At this point, there seems to be some agreement that most of CO/NM will get lighter snows of 1"-4" on the mountains, maybe some for Denver. Along with that, some larger precip values will be in SW New Mexico. The main 500mb shortwave will create a low-impact rain/snow event for the Plains/Midwest. At this time, the whole region is falling behind on snowpack, as some higher elevations of Colorado should be getting 30" per month, but that rate of snow is not happening right now. The Canadian/Euro have some more substantial snow for NE New Mexico over to Texas at some on Friday night/Saturday.

Every single model run seems to be different, at about hour ~126

If you are bored with the weather here, a strong trough in Europe is bringing in a moist southerly cloud band, may produce 200cm to 350cm (138") of snow in Italy.

Storm loops http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_500mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_850mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_radar_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_satellite_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_NWS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_GFS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_GFS_moisture_loop.html