Maestrobjwa

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

This is why I couldn't go any lower than a B- even with another winter below the median for my yard. We all expected it to be crappy coming in, and instead...the "feel" was wall-to-wall winter! A very pleasant surprise--really enjoyed January in particular...haven't had an almost month-long snowpack since what...2014?

Now, we don't talk about models (no, no, no)...

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No problems posting them or any map. They should all be posted because even fantasy runs are plenty useful in the thought algorithm. Using a 120+ hour map to make your final call with emotions attached and not accepting anything less? That's masochism man! 

This part. I think avoiding this emotional pitfall is key to ingesting these snowmaps in a healthy way. Don't start fantasizing when ya see them at 120+ hours--nip that in the bud and toss the pretty pinks aside as a non-reality. Otherwise...you WILL start to get attached subconsciously even when you logically know it's far from bejng set in stone. So I guess it's a bit of a mental discipline thing, lol

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I did express my concerns in the mid range. Even at the height of the runs I was pretty modest. I mentioned several times that a big cohesive storm had some problems but it was overridden with euro snow maps and intense optimism lol

I stand corrected, lol And you're right--that buried in a sea of pink Euro snowmaps...

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. 

It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. 

I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime  because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. 

Never hold back your alarm bells, Bob! I think it would go a long way in setting more realistic expectations around here--seriously!

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No when things are bad I’m not a blow smoke up your ass rainbows and sunshine kinda person.  When my team loses in the playoffs I don’t say “there’s always next year”. “Ya and the odds of us winning are no better, actually they’re worse we could suffer injuries and not even make the playoffs”.  And I’m not that way with snow. You have no idea when the next opportunity with this good a setup comes along. We don’t know yet if the PDO is actually flipping. We might not get another shot like this for 5 years. Next year we could get another 2020 Or 2023 type winter!  DCA only beats climo 1-2 times a decade. What if this was that good winter and we just got unlucky and missed our chance and now we have 6 more awful dreg years to suffer through before we get another!  
 

Im not who you come to for comfort if you need to see the bright side. Im a dose of reality good or bad. When it’s bad I dive into that lake of misery and swim in it. I cleanse myself in the fire through pain and lowery. And I come out the other side hardened and ready to go to battle again and take on whatever shit tomorrow has to throw at me. 

Whoa...wasn't expecting that lecture. I never meant that you should sugarcoat anything. You keep things realistic and we need that. And I'm not telling YOU how to post, per se. That was just MY opinion on the "what if" part of this we don't know yet. That unknown is also part of the reality. We don't know--You could be right, or perhaps it could be better. We can choose which one we focus on in the midst of any disappointment over this winter.

Funny...one poster skewered me terribly for debbing on his unlimited optimism about a winter (and folks in general when I'd say in the Fall I doubted the winter results) And now I counter with a positive spin and get this. Ah, well...can't please everybody 

So...what are the early thoughts on ENSO next year? 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Plot turn: as these things happen at or below our latitude less and less frequently it makes missing each opportunity even more catastrophic 

It might be healthier if we don't go there, lol And actually...here's another plot turn: The first year in awhile (9 years?) that we didn't have a deeply negative PDO (but rather slightly negative) we also had our best opportunities...so maybe that means we'll have more opportunities if it is indeed flipping? 

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m just so shocked on how big the euro failed on this one. Can say I believe it now as much as any other model. 

I feel like they all crapped the bed in the midrange with this one.

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

50 mile shift is very possible

To the east

Shoulda spaced that out more for full effect, lol

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Chivas 18. Yeah it did a number on me last night.

And in turn did a number on the forum, lol

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

The slow rebound starts at 0Z FOLKS. Look alive and pick your chins up. 

Really putting it on the line aren't you? Lol

Welp, I guess that's that for this winter barring a miracle comeback. 

This winter was a mixed bag for me. I am glad it looked and felt like winter most of the time. We had true cold air to work with all season, and warm-ups were the exception not the rule. You'd have cold, brief warm intrusion, then cold--polar opposite of years like 22-23, lol After all the "too warm" discussions we've had...this time winter felt like winter. I mean we actually had a snowpack for almost the entire month of January--when's the last time that happened? This winter was no where near as hopelessly nina as any of us thought it would be. Even February wasn't a complete torch, lol That too warm thread was abandoned this year 

Now, while this winter gets an A+ for a winter atmosphere with consistent cold and snowpack, the results were downright mediocre for my yard. Fringed over and over again, smh I was hoping this would be the year I finally broke the streak of not getting at least a 6" snowfall. But alas...Baltimore's rough stretch continues. If this week's threat doesn't come back, this would be the 6th year in a row I didn't even get to median let alone average. The last 9 years have been below typical climo (so for those thinking my expectations are "unrealistic"...I'd like to think all of you would expect your climo. I do, and it just hasn't gotten there for quite awhile.)

So, my overall grade: B-.

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Out in mid range, it kept looking to me like a place kicker. Just booting the southern wave out of the way and de-energizing it as it does it. I didnt want to post that it made sense because of the reception it would have had lol.

Now perhaps I can only speak for myself...Bob I'd much rather you DO post your opinion like that than not. It's just like last year: you said you saw something early on that didn't scream stable blocking to you but you stayed quiet. I was actually slightly annoyed and was thinking "Maaaann why didn't you say something earlier???" I value your opinion and other knowledgeable posters, and I kinda use those to get an idea on what to expect (and in last year's case I probably would've tempered expectations about said blocking as I don't know how this stuff works as a layman) So if that's where I'm art...I'm sure there are others here would much rather have your opinion than not 

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'm gonna ride atmospheric memory for this storm.  SoMD has been jack all season and will do so again which should be good for the rest of the forum as well. 

Wait how would that be good for the rest of the forum? Lol If ya go with that that would means central and n. MD would be, well ya know...

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Every storm has deamplified this winter as the event nears. It happens. Some years we get like 09-10 everything juiced up last minute.

But in this case though...isn't the H5 setup different than the other mire sliderish waves we've had? Or...has there been something this winter that has caused said deamplification tendency?

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

The weenie in me is hoping for a modern era Jan 2000 model bust. If you were purely reading PSU’s posts about it not making sense, and were wearing total weenie goggles, you’d think we have a chance.  Sadly I just don’t think anything of that magnitude is going to happen with 2025 model tech 

I just wanna know a reason. If it's gonna fail at least make it make sense, lol

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Me too, I don’t understand how the output ends up being that 

Why isn't this making sense? Have we ever had a potential fail like this before? Since I've been on this board (not long--11 years, lol), every storm that hasn't worked out has had a reason. This would be the first one that doesn't and that's even more annoying.

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

lot more S/E

Got a cousin that lives 15 mins from St. Mary's College and I've been giving him virtual side eye all winter...this is gonna take it to a whole other level 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Not really. The trend is what it is. And it will go further SE with each run now. It is over. 

Not talking about your opinion on whether it's over...ya just sound like you're yelling.

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Weenie me all you want @ravensrule It took a huge step towards the rest of guidance. 

Bruh...you're kinda going full tilt right now.

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro does not make huge jumps from run to run. Where did it jump in the past 12 hours? It is falling in line with everything else.  WE NEED THE WAA.

Might need to see 12z tomorrow just to make sure that's happening. I will say that 0z looked better than 18z to my amateur eyes.

Cliffhanger, lol

And the thing is we still have what...96+ hours to go. What, is it gonna trend all the way away so it's no storm up here at all? Lolol

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Like bruh...that's all the way down to a WWA 2-4" type of deal at the most. Even the "jack" is 10 inches now!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is the composite 1 day mean h5 anomaly of all Richmond 8" snowstorms since 1950.  Note where the mean anomaly is centered.

This is the EPS 1 day anomaly for our storm 

Even to my amateur eyes...that's not even close!