Maestrobjwa

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast.  There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 

Screw it I'm rooting for the phased bomb to get a shot at PD3...come on NS! 

Actually at the end of the 12z Euro those potential NS waves are still around (this time we actually want one of those, haha)

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

10 days away

This needs to be on the emoji board here! Mods, make it happen 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like it would of been suppressed

Eh...hard to tell. Thought the wave was less squashed than 0z, at least.

14 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Thank you! I was adopted when I was 4 months old so I figured at 32 might as well! Sooo much paperwork (South Korea). They said it could be 3-9 months. Maybe by my birthday in September I'll hear something! 

Bro I coulda sworn you were like 10 years older than me, lolol But instead I'm older by 10 months...for some odd reason I never looked at your page!

Euro looked like it was trying to load up at the end of it (ah c'mon one more frame ) You know, even for fantasy range, guidance has been rather consistent in developing a juicy wave in the ss. Other details have jumped around, of course, but that thing has been on all the gfs fantasy runs the last several days...and now it's popped up on the Euro the last couple runs. With things being less suppressive like @psuhoffman said becomes a trendN uh...hm? (Only one m so as not to copyright infringe Bob Chill)

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I just started a birth parent search! The more tasks and embers you can put in the fire to distract from snow the better!

 

Niiiice!! Man there is nothing like learning about your family history. It is truly an adventure...and you never know what you'll find (for better or worse, lol) I hope you are successful in finding your birth parents!

On 2/5/2024 at 5:19 PM, Kmlwx said:

@Maestrobjwa - 

Have never had an issue with you and I try really hard not to judge people's style and such. But I will say that I, for one do appreciate that over the last year or two you truly seem to have been trying to learn concepts and stuff. 

The biggest advice I will give you - and in no part of this post do I mean any malice or ill will - is that like you said in the other thread...weather is weather - we can't really change it or do anything about it. Weather doesn't care if you're due. Weather doesn't care if you "deserve" snow. Weather doesn't care if you got screwed by 50 snowstorms and are depressed. 

The best advice that I got when I started on Eastern in the 2000s was that you don't have to reply to every post or topic or concept. It's okay to just read. The more you post is not going to trigger the butterfly effect to "will" a snowstorm closer. 

It is OK to just let other folks carry the thread. I too get REALLY bummed out when we miss snowstorms. You'll notice that I largely go silent in the winter here - but I certainly am in here DAILY and quietly obsessing about the snow potential. I've gotten better over the years - but I will admit I in fact do get bummed when stuff doesn't work out. 

But I found a long time ago that the more I posted, the worse my "need" to have snow to be happy got. You have some options here - and it's not even a complete list. 

- Try new hobbies - I've been spotting foxes and animals in my backyard lately and it's been a blast with trailcams and stuff. Way higher success rate than snow chasing too! I also picked up plane spotting in the past few years. Again, not saying THOSE specifically, but they are both more redeeming a lot of times than weather tracking. 

- Get into more diverse weather. We fail a ton at summer/spring severe weather too...but at least by making it more flexible as to the type of weather that interests me - it's not just snow. 

- CHASE the snow if you have the means to do so. I know we can't all pack up like Bob Chill and go to multiple locations. But if you have the means, do it. 

We are unfortunately warming. We don't need to over that. But if you are solely attached to big snow that you "deserve" you're going to have deep depression in the years to come I fear. Gotta take the wins we get and hope for the best. No amount of posting or hand wringing is going to change what Mother Nature wants to do. 

But I want to reiterate - I truly appreciate that you've been trying to learn and improve. 

Thank you for the taking the time to write that. While I'm a bit ashamed to have to even get advice like this in the first place (kicking myself a bit for not being better), I appreciate the response.

I hear you on the posting. But you know...I found last year that I actually just have to spend less time on this site when things are rough in the snow department. When I did that last February, it started to feel better. I didn't obsess over it as much, and it opened up space in my brain for other things. This year, I installed a site blocker app to not even let me on here at certain times. (I'll admit I've cheated a few times...like yesterday, lol). 

You're right about the warming. I've been coming to a place of accepting things may be declining in our snow climo...I think that ended up fueling the obsession this year and inevitably led to my ill-advised post yesterday. That was me being realistic about where we might be, but also maybe too pessimistic/looking too far ahead. I think the less brain space I give it when things are rough (or just in general), the better it's gonna feel. Yes the suckage is always gonna be disappointing, but hopefully giving it less space lessens the blow...and overtime I'll adjust better. (It sounds like we have a similar brain in our snow obsession!)

Hobbies...While I admittedly don't have too many, music is my passion, profession, and hobby  So it's basically my life--but even with that...tbh, I need to spend even more time making music.

Now as far as one thing I didn't realize was a hobby: I am way into family history--that is an addiction that can be rewarding (except when you hit brick walls!). Videogames are somewhat a hobby as well (though I don't spend as many hours).

As far as chasing...yeah definitely don't have a ton of means to do that. However, if we don't get more snow soon I may find a group to go skiing with! I'm skeptical about getting on skis, but I'd certainly enjoy the atmosphere  

Anyway, all that to say...thanks again for the encouraging response. I think it's helpful for us to talk about the mental side of what we do/track here. Appreciate it!

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th?  The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.

I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol Although it appeared to be a little closer to phasing this time...or I could be looking at it wrong. Not worth detailed analysis at this range anyway.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In a nutshell, south of 6z (by a lot), but a bit too warm for us.  So as I was saying, basically a compromise between 0z and 6z...which won't get the job done for us as well as we'd like

To my amateur eyes, 0z held the energy back for longer. Perhaps that allowed more confluence to build in first before the precip got there?

Bob Chill adds "hmm" to the vocabulary list next to folks 

38 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

You know by reading here going into a block or relaxing from a block is our best chance

Believe it or not I actually wasn't sure about how chances tend to work heading into a block (hey maybe I can see a real time example in about 12-15 days )

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Once you have one, get ready for more unfortunately. 

Mice are frustratingly intelligent, resourceful creatures  It never ceased to amaze (and frustrate) me! Dang things even have different tastes in food

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe for storms that may not be the worst thing

That's also what I was wondering. I mean...would we want a slightly weaker block to avoid potential suppression?

Feeling everything: Great for music, no so good for places like here 

20 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think because you have had many "confrontations" for a lack of a better term, you've become overly defensive, so maybe you try to avoid that and in doing so your post become too scripted and they come off as youre begging for acceptance or agreement. That's my best view. Again, I think you have a lot to offer this community but for instance in your earlier post why mention negative thoughts a out next year. You've already done that at least several times. No need to go there again 

Thank you for your input. And yeah I mean...I've felt the need to redeem myself for bad posts the last several years I've been here. And yeah I do get too defensive like you and @CAPE said. I'm a naturally sensitive person who feels everything--and that includes everything said to me (often focusing on the negative said), and I feel the need to "make it right". When I see 20 likes/thank yous on something said against me it feels like an indictment on me as a person, and I gotta defend it. But that's not helpful...maybe not reacting at all is still better even if it has me fuming for a minute. Right now I'd be ashamed to meet most of you in person, knowing my shortcomings on here and how I'd be seen. 

And you're right...that's probably why some of my posts come off as looking for acceptance--as I feel the need to make up for one thing and end up slipping into another mistake.

As for why mention next winter...I don't know why I did again. I think that's just what I've been thinking in my subconscious about next winter, and it's kinda informed how I've viewed this winter...and it just leaked out. But I'm gonna aim to not fear post anymore. Like don't communicate any fears in the main thread...never ends well! 

I'm trying to be better on here, y'all...I'm not there yet

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

stop using this thread to talk about next winters disaster

I won't do that anymore. Didn't realize it would set all this off. I mean other people have mentioned it occasionally throughout the winter, so I didn't think it was out of bounds. It's been a lot of "best shot in 8 years" (and it is)...but I guess I shouldn't have said what has kinda been informing my view of needing this winter to work. But looking too far into what may or may not happen in the future is an issue I have in general. I'm like that with stuff and I have to work on it.

.......Seems no matter how hard I try I can never get it right in here. Carry on, folks. Sorry for the distraction.

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I think if you prohibited yourself from using "lol" in any posts going forward that would be an easy win.  

Okay...I do that everywhere when I try to indicate not being serious--hard to communicate in text but I can work on that. So again though, how am I trying to hard?

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

1995-96 was a moderate Nina and Baltimore had a 60”+ winter.  1999-2000 was a strong Nina and had three great weeks of winter including a blizzard.  
There just aren’t any absolutes in weather.

Yes--weather can still weather. Weather is chaotic and can do crazy things that can certainly deviate from expectation. That is something I've learned over time. Recency bias is real tho...5 ninas tracking here have made me pull my already thinning hair out *pull hair out emoji if we had one*

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

The last thing I want to do is insult you so dont take this the wrong way.You seem like a very nice person and give off a kindness and there's definitely a need for that on this board but you simply try too hard and that leads to incredible annoyance. 

Try too hard? In what way? 

I mean I know I get vigorously defensive when folks attack me, and I gotta work on that...but I'd like to know what you mean.

1 hour ago, TSG said:

Okay I went back and read... going to disagree pretty strongly with this entire statement. If you thought Feb 5/6 wasn't a long shot when we saw it pop up around the 25th, you weren't paying attention close enough. Numerous posts about how it would be nice to score during our "lull" that week. Here's a few from around then...

 

And what do we see on the 11/12th and beyond the last few GFS runs? Cold air being reestablished with shortwaves sliding across to our south.

If the can has been kicked it's like 2 days

That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically.

2 hours ago, stormy said:

The CPC believes we will be close to -.75 C. come October.

But but wait a minute anything - C. is la nina right? And that's what climate prediction models have been saying, right??? That la nina is more likely at the moment. But according to @mattie g I thought I interpreted this incorrectly?

As far as the other thing about not focusing on next year yet...noted. But don't sit up here and say I have no real knowledge--Uncalled for. Some of you have no mercy whatsoever. I am learning.

P.S. This is a LONG range thread. Next year is still long range. So a passing mention isn't out of bounds. Like actually...nothing I said is out of bounds for this thread. I just made a statement about next year just as others have also stated about next year.

5 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

People expect nino to deliver an epic winter and la nina to be brutal.  Any deviation from that gets people upset apparently. 

La ninas aren't always brutal, but they have a low ceiling. Highest total in the cities was 18" the one year (17-18 I believe). That was reached by a lot of 1-2" nickle and dime events which is...okay. But of the 5 most recent ones...that was the ceiling. And they are a pain in the butt to track with all the NS dominance and interference, the Miller Bs, the se ridge, snow holes, and other annoyances.

Contrast that with what you could get in a niño. Now, those can certainly fail too...but looking at them in general, the odds are just better here. If a niño doesn't go full-on torch a la 1997-98, you always have a chance!

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk. We can barely figure out next week. Maybe somebody knows something but I'll wait until late Nov before discussing it. 

La nina isn't it? And descending solar, and another factor someone pointed out earlier..not great for snow chances. Haven't heard anything different...that's why I've been keying in on this winter hoping it delivers above average.

50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking

This may be the somewhat rate instance where a 2010 comparison isn't JB-level analog hyping, lol

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

My advice to you is don't set yourself up for disappointment. 'Epic' patterns in a Nino don't always result in prolific snow amounts.

Oh yes I know. Nothing in weather is guaranteed--one thing I've learned the hard way. Much chaos in weather outcomes! I don't think it's so much expecting something to definitely happen; more like seeing the best shot--and I'd argue the only legit one--we've had in 8 years and just reallllly hoping we don't miss, given how few chances we've had.