Maestrobjwa

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?

Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We 'get there' with one or 2 big storms. Certainly possible over the next month.

Most places in the lowlands already have 8-12" on the board.

Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where a MECS happened this late?

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m not all that worried about BN precip, because if we’re on the north side and when its cold, we can still get a decent snowfall out of it without any mixing issues. HECS? Maybe not, but something that gets us to climo before we get another shot end of feb-early march. 

Still can have a wave miss us to the south, and if it does, it is what it is. There will be multiple shots. 

To climo? While I guess that would be something at least...I don't see how we get to the 30 inch forecasts of some playing that game. That's gonna require one of those shots to be a MECS. No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events).

Would've felt more comfortable if this changed happened 1-2 weeks earlier, but you never know. While I still feel like we're kinda flirting with the last part of our usual window...thankfully it's still early...so we'll just have to patient until we get closer.

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

I like patterns where everything is backed up and stuff moved slow. Easier to consolidate into one biggie

So you'd say in this fantasy run that it looked that way? (That wave looked like sitting under that block for 3 days, lol)

P.S. Not trying to overanalyze a fantasy run. I do like to use those to just a rough general idea of what scenarios could work and any consistent clues.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’ve never seen a 1061 high. Are you kidding me?

The whole end of that run was lol But what's interesting is how guidance continues to want to eject an stj wave around the PD period...Interested to see if that continues this week.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’m going to try to be positive the next 6 weeks despite the rough start to the pattern change

I will support you in this endeavor (there's gonna have to be some kind of penalty if you fall of the wagon though.t.like something you genuinely hate doing, lol

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Lol-that’s cool and fair enough. Wasn’t talking about you in particular. But I had been disinterested for a month but hearing about the -Nao/ridge/blocking pattern upcoming gave me renewed interest. And only heard it would be in the 2/15 to 3/15 window. I really thought the next couple weeks were supposed to be tranquil. That’s why I don’t think it’s can kicking. 

Same thing I heard. Not sure what the other two are talking about...at not time was early Feb hyped to be a great period. I mean maybe somebody mentioned that a threat in the LR *might* have a chance...but it was never "This is when the pattern flips".

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You deserve a weenie for that.

Why? He said it seemed like a can-kick in the LR...and to me it isn't. Feels like a perception as folks are understandably antsy. I just never saw the 14th as a big window but after based on the discussion.

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

I see you've only been in here since late 2022 so I'll give ya a pass on this take, lol Ya don't know how deep it runs, sir/ma'am 

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I feel a subtle can kick happening in LR thread. Suddenly these maps posted arent showing Feb 14th. Now they have Feb 20th dates on them. Huh.

The snowy and cold period is always 2 weeks away! Rinse and repeat. Until we start tracking spring.

 

 

There is no can-kick. What's mid February? Er...the 15th? Lol If I were you I'd follow what the most knowledgeable poster like CAPE & PSU , Brooklynwx are saying...(and you KNOW PSU would say something if things weren't looking as great, lol). But all of them have been saying...PATIENCE. Most of the tastiest maps have been dated around PD weekend at the earliest. There's also been discussion about the 20-23rd. That is a long ways away...so any "can kick" as of now is more a result of impatient perception than reality. 

Have you tried taking a day off of this board?

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

What keeps me awake at night????

February - March 1 will witness several threats but southward suppression will disappoint many.

I fear the NS will be too strong.  I hope I'm wrong but I must be honest.

Panic Room...

Just now, BristowWx said:

Hard to find one that is snow.  Next winter will rock the casbah 

There is a Panic Room thread, folks...

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Darn

What are you doing? Lol

9 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Delving into 2010 for a moment. I was in south central PA and don't remember mixing issues for either of the February storms. Did temps flirt with freezing for either one along the metros/95 urban corridors? Any mixed precip? I remember storm #2 was cold. 

We had freezing rain here for awhile with the second storm (happened that night around 8...I remember because I was ungratefully protesting and looking at my computer, lol...I could slap 19 year-old me for that!)

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We going get PD III

 

 

CAPE lost his grammar...it may be getting serious folks 

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s hope so .Feb 5/6 looked just like this mid Jan. 

No it didn't, lol I mean two weeks ago the good posters in here were saying we'd likely have to kick that week. Nothing else has changed (and appears to be getting better!)

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yup. Sign of a coach that really isn't in control in the big moments.

Ravens at Chargers on the schedule next season. Harbaugh vs Harbaugh. Who ya got?

Hm...I mean John is 2-0 against Jim so far, so ya wonder about the law of averages, lol Hard to say--gotta see what the heck we look like next year first!

Just now, CAPE said:

I get it. But why does this happen so often in these big games? He is the head coach. That's on him. No excuses.

Yeah that's a mystery. Why just those games and no where else? It makes zero sense. I mean how do you get a new OC in Monken, the dude is good all year, then chokes in the big moment just like Roman did? And then...Harbs literally yells the sideline reporter "We need to run the ball more". But then...didn't happen. Not sure why he didn't just call up there and tell Monk to run it...UNLESS, as someone suggested, he doesn't like undermining his coordinators during a game. 

Now, I don't know how things usually go with HCs and their coordinators in-game (that's a topic I'd like to look into), but for crying out loud...you'd think he just calls up to the booth and say something.

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

'We just couldn't get to it'. Da Fuck? If you wanted to run it, RUN IT.

These bullshit answers. He so needs to be fired. Never happen though.

One thing you gotta understand about Harbaugh: He does NOT like to openly criticize his coordinators. He doesn't want to say "We should've run the ball but we didn't" because he probably sees it as taking a slap at Monk. You saw it even in Roman's last year: He tried not to criticize him until he just had to say something (i.e. the Proche debacle)

So yeah, imo, Harbs knows and agrees we should've run the ball more. He said he and Monken talked about that (and if I had to bet he told him the same thing in private. He just won't say it publicly).

1 hour ago, Ji said:

all this talk about Feb 22-23 is super scary. its 20 days away. The EPS snowchart lit up today for threats way before then

Yes it is. I've already made my non-scientific reasoning why...I mean perhaps this year could finally be the year to break the post PD-March 1st bad luck streak! Ya never know.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

picture perfect progression here. just shows how the split flow comes together with the 50/50 to lead to a bomb

Now THIS here: I'd MUCH rather be bet in something for this weekend...why? Because our history of PD weekends in Niños is frickin' epic! It just "feels" like a better chance (not scientific, just a feel). Now scientifically, what @psuhoffman is saying about the 22nd/23rd being better odds makes sense with the -NAO flexing and all. Now of course...if the timing of the relax of the flex is moved up a few days...then maybe PD 

I'm telling ya, in a week where Ravens news has been locking us down, here come the Orioles to give us the biggest lift ever, lol Change owners? BIIIIG CHECK. Get a very solid starter? Check 

37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I still think we score at least one big one before its over. Would just align with enso. We will get one to work out. It might only stick around for a few days, But whatever. 

Hey--PD2 only lasted for what...4 days? Lol

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And we missed another threat a week later because it was suppressed!  Worrying about if it can snow a lot late Feb and early March is the height of weird illogical paranoia imo. 

Yes...weird and illogical it is  You feel like the "luck" is worse then. Not that bad luck can't happen anytime in winter, but in a less logical lense...good luck has never happened that week at all! (Even the epic 2010 couldn't do it...a storm missed us the last week of THAT Feb). And the other example you mentioned about a great setup but a weird Fujiwara thing for no reason? Until something works out I'll be paranoid until it finally does, lol

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow means on the extended guidance is now responding as I would expect and shows 2 very clear signals in coordination with the cycles of the nao. As expected by the way the high latitudes are progressing one is centered around Feb 22-26 and the next around March 4-10.  The look outside these two periods isn’t bad and we very well could snow from any of the waves after Feb 12 or so but those are the two best opportunities for big storms. 

This month is may test the non-scientific slightly superstitious theory of whether we can get a MECS or HECS to hit the last week of Feb...lol (I won't argue too much but given all the misses, I'll personally never be comfortable with that week until it does) Sounds like you're saying we'd actually need more luck BEFORE that week? (I.e. the waves coming after the 12th?)

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The days are getting longer and the sun is getting stronger, but the H5 anomalies say hold on a little longer; will it snow before the daffodils grow, only God really knows....

no snow maps today:)

That an original? If so, well done