Maestrobjwa

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Similar forecast maps leading up to last winter. Gulf coast looks bone dry on that forecast, meaning little/no chance of miller A coastals. So like the last 2 winters, we need to get our snows from northern streamers that trend south or deamplify in short lead times. 

Trend south and jump over central/northern MD you mean? Boooooo...lol  

On 6/18/2025 at 9:45 PM, Bob Chill said:

No, not like that. Imho- record breakers are more likely than less likely. Something will line up just right and put down insane totals before long. Juice is real and prolific qpf makers in general are on the increase.

Bread butter frequency is what is worrisome. The punch of the northern jet seems to be retreating on avg and south of the M/D never had a lot of room to spare even in the better times of decades past. Lack of clippers is a good example of what I'm talking about among other things. 2014-15 was 10 years ago already. Seems nearly impossible to get a run of clippers and overrunners since. The 4 decades before that had plenty. 

I guess no one has been able to draw the picture of exactly what changed after 2016. Like I'd like to see a diagram here so I can visualize what's been happening. "Punch of the northern jet" huh? If that's something consistent that you noticed...I wonder what's causing that? I mean I know it could be the elephant, but I'm just trying to see how, exactly.

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Think I can hear distant thunder from the storm over south Baltimore 

So did I. Figured it was a bit further away seeing as it was sunny outside then, lol

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

Now, I'm gonna ask an obvious question here: Do you personally prefer cold/snowy weather or warm weather?

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

Booooo....guess we're still in the decadal cycle of the last 9 1/2 years, smh

42 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

 

Thanks all! Took the day off of work, spent it with my besties day drinking and shopping. Have a bye for softball tonight so gonna spend the evening in the pool with the family. 

Sounds like a perfect birthday evening--Happy Birthday Mappy!!

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's football season.. Training camp starts in a little over 2 weeks. Ravens first preseason game in 5 weeks. 

Speaking of...this year I'd love for the Peyton Manning-Lamar playoff record copying to stop this year. They followed each other step for step and once again have an identical record going into their 8th year: 3-5 Manning didn't get the ring until his 9TH year...He went one and done in the playoffs in year 8 to drop to 3-6! Maaaan it would have to take something else reaaaal stupid to happen for Lamar this year, smh

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Orioles are..

NOT GOOD

Forget wildcard dreams. They need to be sellers- Sugano, Morton, Mullins are desirable additions to actual contenders.

Well yeah I mean...I hope nobody was still holding out hope for that, lol I kinda have up on that last month--I mean I was slightly intrigued after the 6-game winning streak, but history was against us in terms of how bad we started, and a smaller anecdote that no team that lost by 20+ runs ever made the playoffs! After that it was kinda like...naaaaah.

So folks, we just gotta accept that this is who they are this year and look to next year.

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

A successful bunt from an Oriole AND an 8 inning shutout start???

The world is upside down .

Yeah I didn't even know Cowser COULD bunt, lol Great game tonight!

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He’s had 2 amazing starts and 1 dumpster fire

And the dumpster fire was not under the best conditions. Now even last year, I've always wanted to reserve judgment on the trade until we saw what he did this year after getting a reset and working with our coaches. Gonna be very interesting to see if this continues

@87storms Was that you who wished for Summer to get here and didn't enjoy the cool last month? If so, here ya go! Lol

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Damn, Philly has fast...was about to post the IRI update lol.

Looks like El Niño is off the table...gonna either be cool neutral or weak La Niña, but given what we know about the state of the globe...probably wise to err on the side of caution and assume weak La Niña type of net impact. That said, what last season taught me is don't ENSO be a prohibitive factor in your analysis and discretion with analogs....ie, if you see strong value in a season, then go ahead an include it...even if its neutral or warmish ENSO. There is no way anyone could have had the Aleutian low reflected in their forecast composite for last season had they restricted themselves to solely cool ENSO seasons.

Do you think that these days.. analogs are getting less relevant? Sure feels like it, but hey I'm just an amateur hobbyist here, lol

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Always “fun” to be on the bad side of a record performance 

 

Mercy. I'm telling ya...to quote a famous Raven...this team is softer than bread pudding, lol

5 hours ago, H2O said:

Forecasts like this are why I'm so damn happy to be retired.  Having to work in stuff like this coming heat sucked.  

What kind of work did you used to do?

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Os were 17 under at one point and now 10 under. Keep it moving in the right direction. 5 under or better by the all star break and potentially getting Bradish and Wells back for the second half makes a wildcard seem doable.

Indeed! But oy...we'd still have to beat history though. To date, no team that's lost by 20 runs has ever made the playoffs. I see a scenario where if we play really we may just miss. Even that would still bode well for the next season though! Just wanna see them at least make a run at it if they get closer.

16 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Yeah we were like that yesterday. Had to go over the mountains here in Frederick to Middletown. The sight of the smoke in the valley was present: 

Mind you today we are in England with this spittle cloud cover and musty temps. 

Spittle cloud? Didn't know clouds could drool... 

29 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You see the Mountain hit 100 again? Yeeeeeah he's coming back!!

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It's such a small area that a sizable storm line covers most of us.

Yeah but even with our small area it's still more scattered than not (think of how many times a line crosses the mountains and splits north or south). @Kmlwx give me an assist here, lol

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Have we reached the point where the planets have to align in order for us to get widespread severe weather? This is winter tier futility.

How often is severe weather "widespread", though? Isn't it somewhat scattershot by nature?

2 hours ago, mappy said:

I thought it was fog and/or mist when I woke up until I went to let the dogs out and was hit with the smell. 

In Parkville right now and it's hazy here too. Where's it coming from? (Not still Canada is it?)

41 minutes ago, frd said:

At Pusey Crossroads 1.13 " 

Man I read that wrong

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

High ABV beers(9% +) brewed with a big grain bill tend to have complexity in the flavor profile. Nice aromas. That's what I mean by high food value. Big grain= more sugar= a higher alcohol content. The antithesis of a watered down, flavorless light beer. Gross lol.

Ah so when you say "chewy" you mean just thicker beer? (I was picturing something you could literally chew on, lol)

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

These big chewy beers with high food value give me such a pleasant buzz.

Hang on...chewy beer? High food value? Please explain for us alcohol illiterates  (actually I may be one of the few on here, hahaha)

2 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

Life seems to like to sneek up and bite you when you think things are going smooth. Have been there multiple times this year. 

I'm always a tad on guard when I realize things are going smoothly...like you just waiting for that shoe to drop somewhere, lol I realize it's not the healthiest way to live and it's better just to enjoy the moment...but dang too much crap happens in life to not at least be suspicious of the calm sometimes, lol

23 minutes ago, frd said:

Usually big heat summers show up in May. 

Ah so it doesn't usually go from cool Mays to 100s in JJA?