Maestrobjwa

55 minutes ago, bncho said:

Alright kid if you're gonna share Beethoven then you HAVE to listen to Beethoven too--it is a requirement 

18 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise.  Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period.  So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory.  Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight.  I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing.  And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced.  But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March.  And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.

The problem is when does it reload...and if we can manage an event VD/PD weekend with said relaxing pattern. If we don't ya start wondering about the rest of the month. I mean I don't read ensembles that well so maybe somebody can tell me if thet show cold coming back after next week. And a February SSW doesn't give me confidence because that was too little too late last time. But man I'd love a good snow event in late February--that would be almost historic given how rare it is  (I won't believe it till I see the calendar say February 21st-28th and it's snowing a few inches outside, lol)

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

can we really call it a jackpot?

It's more pot than it is jack

The endless parade of "kickers" coming out of Canada and using up all the space is frickin' annoying for us hu great for SOVA and NC, smh Not counting on jack diddly this week because of that!

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Well, so much for winter.

Man that's just one panel it doesn't look to stay that way--hush, lol Now as far as getting something that weekend I don't know...

Just now, Terpeast said:

Since I moved back to the area, we've gotten zilch in March... so the WDI is off the charts. 

With a fading nina I feel like this would be a better chance than we've had in awhile...but still, snow in March and all it's messyness, lol

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 12K NAM

Just enough to make the commute messy? Haha

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no idea, found it on the intewebz.  What's the name of the docu drama again?

The Genius of Beethoven - 3 Part Series (One for each creative phase )

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time to change my avatar to reflect the mood 

What's the full picture of that? I don't believe I've seen that portrait!

P.S. I'm gonna keep bugging you about watching the Beethoven docu-drama until you do 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3 of Baltimores 17 biggest snowstorms came in March. Baltimore has had snows of 22”, 16” and 13” in March.  And 2 years ago I ran the numbers and showed that Baltimores odds of getting a 4”, 8” and 12” Storm peak the first week of February but then only decrease slightly until you get to the 3rd week of March when they drop off a cliff.  

You say this every year. Every single year. And one proven it’s false like 3 times and you still say it. Why?  
 

 

Notice I just said February this time. I'm talking from PD-end of February we have never gotten a big snow. We've gotten a couple smaller ones though as you have pointed out. I did not say it was impossible to get a big snow in March...I just don't like relying on March for that because it's so rare and hard to do.

54 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

That timing is unfortunate, though...that PD weekend barrier is historically a real thing when it comes to getting a big snow. Was hoping we could get something on the pattern "relax". Usually if it doesn't happen by then you gotta wait until March to try your luck (ack). Hard to expect it...we could still get some smaller events though to try and finally get to average.

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like it.  But..84hr NAM and all.  Need the Euro on board.  Fuck the GFS

GFS is on what...ICON level? Or somewhere between ICON and Ukie? Lol I mean my goodness they have got to fix that thing.

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are likely to have a +QBO next winter. The better ninos, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015 were all -QBO.  Not every +QBO was bad. We had some decent ones. 1988 and 2016 were ok +QBO ninos. But we’ve not had a blockbuster cold wall to wall +QBO Nino winter 

How about the Ninos in the late 70s?  And man...I'd love to finally have a Niño work out again--hopefully next year can do well despite the +QBO

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Drove around today and the snow banks and piles make it look like we just got 20 inches. The snowpack will harden and stick around for the rest of the winter. I’m certainly not gonna complain about this winter. 

I don't think I've ever seen a 6.5" snowfall slow a city to a crawl for an entire week like this...The combination of snow compacted by a ton of sleet that fell in the teens...followed by a week of arctic temperatures in the 20s and below is not one we've seen in probably decades--if ever! (Anybody know of another time it happened like this?) I mean an absolute glacier of a snowpack...wow!

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is my inclination.

Does east QBO mean east-based Niño, or is that a separate thing?

14 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

If this cold trend can continue, we have until mid-March for a big dog storm. We can even eke out flizzards in April. Though the snow cover may not hang around for a week. Great to have had a few snow events so early with winter only half over. 

Historically we got until Feb 20th or so for a big dog. Even MORE rare and MORE difficult to do in March! Not to say we couldn't get smaller events though...

Just now, Nomz said:

Seeing it written out like that is even funnier, hahaha

10 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Dang NC about to have an historic winter snowfall-wise? Smh

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Deja Vu

 

Yeah nah I'm not messin' with this one. Atmospheric memory and all that, lol Although I do hope it can throw something our way...

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I like this map. If we can get the disturbance underneath us we don’t need to worry too much about the 18z gfs rainstorm in a cold pattern outcome. Instead we get an 18z ai gfs snowstorm for the whole forum.  

Granted the nina busy NS doesn't screw it up again somehow...it messed with whst we're did get and pushed this weekend south! Hard to trust it, lol

Just now, snowfan said:

Euro said no so I gotta stick with that until proven otherwise, lol

25 minutes ago, Nomz said:

It had one bad run like 160 hours out. GFS literally just waits 48 hours and caves to the Euro every single fucking time.

I would advise against further engagement, lol

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. 

And in this case, V-Day and PD are on the same weekend, lol

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 

 

 

Yeah but isn't that essentially the same mechanism shoving it OTS as what's happening this weekend?

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, Euro tries the EXACT same thing Next Saturday as it's doing for this Saturday.  Can't make this shit up.  Same result

Came in here to talk about the same thing...like bruh whhhyyy? Lol (If it does end up looking like that we'll know this time to ignore the threat altogether!