Maestrobjwa

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

i am really thankful for that week - better than nothing.

So am I. I laid out in the snow for a good 10 mins just appreciating having even that much snow to lie in (in fact, I wish I'd stayed out there longer!). It may be little while before we that again. 

And overall...we need to be thankful for what most of us (except for maybe a couple posters) experienced between 2009-2016. Epic stuff!

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

You know darn well everyone will be back next winter. We like unusual pain and punishment lol

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

“Next year is going to suck! I won’t be here tracking”

Yes you will. So will I. We all secretly love the torture.

Breaking news: snow hunting in the mid Atlantic becomes newest category of BDSM.

This will be the first winter where I actually feel done. Maybe as we get closer I'll change my mind, but I feel done. I mean for me, over the last 9 years we've already seen everything. What else is there to see? The only thing that made this winter worth tracking was that we did not know what a legit niño would look like under whatever regime this is. Optimism was warranted because, well...we literally did not know what things would look like. It just didn't work out!

But now? Feel like we've seen absolutely everything, and until we get a positive surprise, it just feels like it's not worth watching--especially in a nina (except for @CAPE's yard of course ) I'm tired of pattern chasing only for it to result in long (but knowledgeable) posts about how stuff doesn't work anymore, we suck, etc...it's like, why watch when you already know the answer? I'm tired of watching all manner of climate things destructively interfere with our snow climo.

Now if/when the PDO flips that would be something we haven't seen during this stretch, so maybe you watch and see if that helps, who knows? It may or may not...but worth watching in case it does. Until then? Eh. I mean if you are in just for the science, I get it--to each their own. But otherwise? Not much to see, imo

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We learned our lesson. Every winter is gonna suck. 

So...you gonna track next year? (Real question)

52 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

And don't turn 'em back on until uh...the PDO flips?  (although I know some will be back next year no matter how horrid it may be, lol)

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You know I agree with the trend...but even if our climo has become Richmond's permanently now...even they used to get a big year from time to time, just much more rare.  

If our climo is gonna be Richmond's...I often wonder if our sub is gonna go the way of the SE forum with just 10 posts a day, haha But really though, if it's that infrequent, interest is gonna drop off a lot I think...

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I've pointed this out before...

This first example its obvious why we are warm... This pacific configuration is a train wreck, we should be warm with this crap pacific longwave setup

But then look at this...its the complete opposite pacific longwave pattern, and we still have a massive full latitude eastern N American ridge

I've shown this several times over the last few years...that at times it doesn't matter what the jet configuration is over the pacific it leads to the same pattern over the CONUS regardless.  Am I 100% sure the PDO is totally to blame for this...ehh.  I hope so.  

You may have posted stuff on orevious -PDOs before but I don't quite remember...but how has this -PDO cycle compared to previous ones?

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm trying to behave today...

 

As it thunders outside in a mild end to a mild February, lol

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Even though @WxWatcher007 is in retirement, I heard the Reaper still has his agents standing by the phones now to assist those in dire need...

Well actually the rapture would take some the opposite of his direction 

5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Getting true blocking way too late to help and making spring relatively cold and wettish up our way has been a bit of a recurring theme the last ten years or so. Enough of a recurring event now that I idly wonder if it is tied to the general change occurring with our weather patterns. 

I don't get colder Springs...if everything is supposed to be a bit warmer overall, why have the Springs been colder?

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I thought it was telling when Boston only had 2" of snow in the core of Winter, I think it was either 17-18, or 19-20. The jet stream has been lifting north for sure.. 

Yeah but dang THAT for north? Already? Here I was thinking changes I climo happened slowly...but this was a free fall (especially for them)

Wonder if getting a plus +PDO is one more test to see if anything can still help us...

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”. 

The problem with moving for snow when it's been this bad is...most people can't move to the mountains. Career opportunities for most is closer to where people actually live...the corridors!

Now I am still shocked that the snow climo dropped off so drastically for Boston. Is even their's damaged now?    But if it's bad from Boston on down, there's literally nowhere to go and have a career in whatever field you are. Everybody can't just pile into WV!

I think we all are gonna have to make peace with it if things don't/can't get better. No choice, really...otherwise woodland creatures wouldn't be safe 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

The hottest SSTa of the marine heat wave is almost exactly where, and downstream of, Fukushima, the site from where they are dumping radioactive water. 

I haven’t come across any research that this is the cause, but I can’t seriously believe that this is a mere coincidence. 

Whoa, whoa hollld up...ya just dropper something there. And it may become a punchline here, lol, but now that ya mention it you can't help but wonder...

So...when was the last time the PDO was positive?

29 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This thread will be researched as a case study of when hopes get raised and dashed in a very short period of time.

We all got hopelash.

I think you just coined that term, hahaha Well done

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

2027 

Lol Now see two years was my first thought too, but I was trying to leave room for the off chance the Nina won't double-dip...but I mean don't they all do that these days?

19 hours ago, Ji said:

There will probably be a few tracking windows next winter

I'll bet not a one will yield more than 3 inches. And that maybe a couple threats worth. But, I'd welcome some December snow even if it's just scenery 

P.S. I'll take the bet even further: I'll bet somebody $100 that BWI does not see a verified WSW until at least 2026.

Given all this, why anybody has any intention on tracking next winter is beyond me. It must be for the science part of it...because if it's looking for snow? No point. We've seen the ugliest of this PDO cycle, so what more is there to find out? Already seen everything, and there have been no positive surprises in 8 years. So I don't get it...Now I also sense a loyalty for some similar to fanbases of teams that have been losing for a long time (somebody literally said "I've been hear since 2001-02). I mean hey, whatever floats ya!

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol…in other words we benefited from the worst of Nina combined with the worst of Nino. This winter is truly heartbreaking. Waited forever for a Nino but deep down I was worried that if this failed it would be a disaster sign for future winters. We are cooked

I hope not...if so, it's not just us...what about the rest of the Northeast that did worse than we did? Had the entire east coast gotten a drastically cut in climo? Smh Never thought it would go to crap THIS quickly. I mean 2016 happened and boom...right off a cliff. For us, over the course of 4 years we had a 1.2 inch winter and a 0.2 inch winter. Never before did that happen in a short span...mercy.

We oughta change the title to the resignation room!

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is it a wish cast? Silly accusation without anything to back it up. The data supports high ACE/better eastern winter correlation...likely due to how the how the extreme heat transport impacts the extra tropical Pacific. Even Raindance will tell you that.

Haven't we had a high ACE season or two the last 8 years or so?

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Worth keeping an eye on. There is literally nothing else. GFS/GEFS has been pretty persistent indicating some trailing energy sliding eastward with colder air moving in. Euro leaves it back in the SW.

 

So for clarification: Anafrontal stuff doesn't work much here because of the mountains?

4 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

LOL!!!!  OK, c'mon now...I love Beethoven and he's still my favorite composer.  Unfortunately, I was unable to find an image or a gif with him doing an eyeroll!!  So I settled for the Austrian dude...but don't diss his music TOO much!

(ETA:  I await a lecture from @Maestrobjwa on the merits of Beethoven vs. Mozart and his harpsichord using ass!)

Dang this winter got @stormtrackerpicking classical fights, lol Now first of all, while Beethoven will always be my #1 dude, Mozart slander of that magnitude shalt not be tolerated  And I must point out...Mozart did technically play a fortepiano and not a harpsichord (unless the harpsi was when he was like 5)...so I dismiss your diss good sir!

Alright show of hands: What masochists are gonna be in here tracking next winter?