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Maestrobjwa

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    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

    Serious question.

    Have you considered getting a job in the ski industry? 

    Not sure if it's viable because ski resorts are suffering all over and may not be hiring like crazy, but have you looked at those opportunities?

    I haven't--but it would not be a viable option for me for a number of reasons...distance being one of them. I am a professional musician--so I literally do music for a living, lol It's my calling & passion...and I love what I do! And, I'd have to give up all connections/networking for music I have here. Sure there could be new ones formed in a place like WV, but moving to the mountains is not an option at this point in my life for other reasons.

    Now...as far as actually GOING skiing? I have never been, and while my bodily coordination is questionable, I'd love to try it even if just to be around the snow :lol: And given our snow prospects particularly next winter, I may...just don't know anybody that skiis, lol

    • Like 1

    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    I’ve mentioned all this before but wanted to summarize into one post in this thread. 
     

    First of all I don’t deny that snowfall is cyclical. Various cyclical patterns influence. And as they time up with each other we go through up, down, and ambiguous snowfall patterns.  This is a down cycle. The mean pattern we’re in matches what had been our two previous worst snowfall periods. I’ve always admitted that. But this one is worse!  And the last “up” cycle was worse also. That’s the more alarming thing. From 2002/3 to 2016 we were in a very favorable cycle. Mean pattern for those 14 years… 

    IMG_1675.png.5b2e3d7e6ccbc87cff34e0d4e2801ff8.png

    It won’t get much better. But for places south of 40 it didn’t result in the same snowfall benefits as it should have. While places like NYC and Bos went on an epic run that was even better than the 1960s for them we actually averaged slightly below our previous long term snowfall averages!  We just were less below normal than we’ve been since!  Our last up cycle was actually not even above avg!  Of course that’s subjective because that avg is decreasing and I suspect eventually that period will look great by current standards. 
     

    Examining both the last up and the current down cycle the thing that sticks out to me as the most likely culprit is the PDO.  During prior cycles we were able to get a snowy winter in a -pdo. The main avenue to that was a -nao. But from 2001 on we have not had a snowy winter with a -pdo. They’ve gone extinct. This inability to overcome a hostile pacific really muted our last favorable cycle and now it’s making this current unfavorable one god awful!  
     

    looking at the numbers it does not seem that a +pdo has yet to be significantly impacted in the same way. However, even in a favorable pacific cycle there will be years or months within years where the pacific isn’t favorable. Not being able to snow much in those situations will continue to mute the up cycles imo and will make the down cycles really bad. Problem is we don’t always get a lot of snow in a +pdo. Sometimes the nao doesn’t cooperate. Or we just get unlucky. Or it’s cold and dry. So never getting a snowy winter in a phase we are in 50% of the time is really killing our snow climo compared to previous. This trend has actually been going on for longer than many think. It started in the 80s and got BAD by the 2000s but because we were in a fairly favorable cycle it was masked somewhat. 
     

    I was on the other side of this debate not long ago. In winter 2020 I took the other side when @RevWarReenactor was sounding like I do now. ATT I thought alarm was unjustified. We were only 4 years removed from a snowy period. I acknowledged it was warming and snowfall was decreasing but I thought then it was marginal and nothing to fuss about. 
     

    But objective reality the last 4 years has changed my mind. I also did some additional research and looked at the data in a different way and found these alarming trends hidden within the cyclical chaos. 
     

    The silver lining I guess is that there is some evidence during +pdo cycles storms and some seasons are getting snowier.  @Bob Chillis right. Given the increased baroclinicity and  warmer waters, we are likely to get an absolutely biblical type storm eventually when things do line up. And we are more likely to get years like 2010 if a couple of those storms hit in the same year. But make no mistake, given all these trends, that won’t offset the fact we will spend way way more seasons suffering through low snowfall. Recent research and examining the data more holistically has lead me to determine I was wrong and our snow climo has degraded significantly more than I thought a few years ago. 

    Alright, so given all this...if any of us is a little more fstatistically about out future snow prospects, can we like...not give out weenies and say "Stop posting about future winters". This is a reality I already halfway accepted given how bad it's been. I mean even without digging into it like you have...just the eyeball test shows that things just don't look like they used. It's just gonna be more difficult to snow, and it's a reality that we don't have much choice but to learn to live with (unless we evidence to the contrary in the coming years). 

    Like I said, it's not something any snowlover wants to accept, which is why you get the reaction you do even when you spell things out in detail. But I mean...the way this winter went oughta tell ya. All we have for now is the memories of the snows we've experienced, and perhaps one day in a better cycle we get another memorable winter with an epic amount of snow--and we'd better enjoy the heck out of it! And in the meantime...enjoy what we get even if it's smaller than we're used to. Just gotta adapt!

    The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, IronTy said:

    JFC this hobby is for masochists around here.  When was the last time we had a non-stressful setup where we got snow?  I have in and charged up the muck truck...just as the trend drifted northwards.  

    I'd count last month as one time (good trend on top of good trend inside 36 hours). But before that? Jan 2016...lol

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I'm happy to be getting what it looks like we'll get Friday/Saturday, but I can't help but be a bit sad seeing a big piece of what could be the last stj wave with cold near by that we'll see for a couple years...sliding by to the south, shunted by a front that won't even last long! But again, at least we get a nice piece off the top of it :)

    The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Oh it is, but no matter what Baltimore is only getting 5" because they aren't allowed to have warning events there anymore.  @Maestrobjwaknows  

    Thought about that a little while ago...I believe we finally broke that during our first wintry week (I THINK...we ended the week with 9.1 inches so at least one of those must've been over 5). Listen, given what we could facing next winter (and the next if the next will double dip like ninas LOVE to do), and the overall uncertainty in our climo, I may not be as picky now. Gonna enjoy the moderate--although I'll still hope for the big one one day :lol:

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