Maestrobjwa

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

9ers gonna end up losing 12-10 because they can’t do shit on offense 

Chiefs defense doing the same thing to their receivers that they did to ours!

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

New Nino, instead of snowing in the south it snows in New England.

New England hasn't been doing well with snow until now, though. In fact...BWI had more than Boston at the beginning of the month!

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Never happen. 'heat of the moment'. He will make a key play or 2 so he stays in. SF doing a pretty good job making sure he doesn't beat them so far.  Mahomes to Kelce was 11 for 11 against the Ravens to start that game.

Forgot about the Harbaugh doghouse didn't ya? Lol

Now look at the Chiefs losing their composure, lol

53 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

As a churchgoer myself, not sure how I feel about Jesus having a Superbowl add.

Hey brother Yeah I don't quite know what to make of these folks (been putting out adds for a couple years now) 

Niners deserve this more...they haven't won a SB since the 90s! And the Chiefs already beat them once...and of course my still somewhat sour grapes about my Ravens, lol GOOOO NINERS

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

Decent north tick on gefs

Hey this is the opposite of a panic room post 

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If we somehow bring this one back then the second thread rule actually broke the simulation 

Ah but there was a wrinkles...it was unpinned 

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

If there's one thing I've learned from the process in here over the past few weeks, no matter what anyone is saying, if Bob Chill isn't in here expressing legitimate excitement/interest, we should probably temper expectations.  

Unless I missed any positivity from him, he's been awfully quiet during this period when many were going wild hyping up the 15th-25th. 

Yeah I was just thinking about that earlier...a quiet Chill isn't the most encouraging thing, lol But also it's a lot of moving parts with the pattern change right now...so there's nothing to say "Alright here it is!" with any certainty anyway.

Alright experienced minds here...on a scale of 1-10 how weird is this setup we're looking at for PD weekend/the day after?

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think for PD our best chance is if that NS wave can get ahead of the STJ wave, provide some cold but clear for the STJ to stall and amplify behind it. 
 

If the NS wave is slower and behind it could phase but with the weaker blocking than was showing (it gets there but not until a couple days later now) that opens the door to an inland runner rain solution. I’m rooting for the NS wave to get ahead. That wave could also end to being the only show for us. That’ lacks the bigger upside of the STJ wave but could be a way to snow. I don’t buy the gfs solution of that wave running to our north. 

The 0z Canadian kinda had that "at least we got something" scenario you mentioned with the NS wave giving us something but kinda missing the STJ wave.

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was literally our snowiest period in Fing history.  

so please stop with the PNA nonsense. This above was the goal. That’s always been what we wanted. If you look at -pdo ninos they had a western pna trough. But they were snowy anyways!  We have snowed plenty through history in a -pna. Yes lately it’s not been working. But I was told that was a Nina problem. If we fail it’s not “pna”. We can and have snowed in a pna pattern. Some of our snowiest periods ever had a pna. 

Do you like...think that, prior to this year, blaming the nina was that absurd of an idea even though we hadn't had a legit niño until now to test things? Seems reasonable to wanna see since we had 5 years of our least snowy state...But I'm guessing you never bought the nina argument in the first place?

This is when you know you're a true weenie: Turned on a random show and the dude says he's in Greenland...and the first thing my brain thought was: "Hey! That's where the good blocking sets up "

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a split of the NS energy associated with the displaced TPV squeezed in between the amped EPO ridge and the developing -NAO. Reminds me of Prince in his prime.

That little wave scooting eastward underneath along the boundary might be mildly interesting 

Do tell what you mean 

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its crazy to look past a window with potential that is still 8-10 days out, because the weeklies have been persistent about the 24th lol. This isn't really even a suppressed look. It is a bit too far SE verbatim, and it is still pretty far out there. 

And yeah I mean...aren't we talking about the timing of a phase here? No way that's gonna be resolved yet. The fact that guidance got less suppressed over the last 2-3 cycles...me thinks that's progress  (Take that fwiw since it could bevmy baby once the paperwork is approved, so I'll always be biased)

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

PD storm chance on the 00z EURO just peters out as it gets to our region... but there's barely any snow anyway with the entire system

This one may take a bit to figure out....At first it looked like it was either phased bomb or suppressed. And I guess that is still technically the case... But today we've seen the trend away from suppression where the wave has no chance, to with different solutions to the NS interactions. Pull up a chair cause it's gonna be awhile to sort out 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Perfect track rainstorm lol 

And under this block? Yep, drunk, lol

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That it is. Then again, the ns is all over the place with the gfs. Zero confidence in any solution it puts out beyond 180hrs

Yep. If we're talking about that interaction, ain't no way we can know for sure. But I would like to see the trend of less suppressed continue...that way we can take our chances on getting a phase.

Just now, Jebman said:

I just KNEW Dr Jebman Seuss was gonna come along lmfao

"Oh the Places You'll Jebwalk!"

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

it ended well lol

I was about to say...y'all said two different things and I just assumed one of you was drinking

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

All of the above on the souther, slower, wester...all the things thru 66. Need it to not be a sheared mess tho. 

Gotta wonder if that "shear" is just a nam thing.

32 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

You'll have to await the Digital Blue society's final approval.  Until there's a lot of consistent digital blue, no go!

Ehh always a bunch of blue tape with these people...

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him.

I'll go file the adoption papers with his agency. I'm confident it will be granted... @Ji! Consultation requested 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There’s my baby 

Then I'll claim PD as MY baby then! I think he can be the most special baby on the models if he puts his mind to it and NOBODY will tell me otherwise! I'll stay with it till I can't no mo...so may the best baby win 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much.

So I'm guessing that's just something more random that just so happens to be a thing this winter? (In the case of PD I guess we need that ns interaction like a couple of you have mentioned).