Maestrobjwa

Saw someone post in another forum that El Niños have a tendency to fail during solar minimums...Now was 2009 a solar minimum year, or did we hit that the year before? (I'm trying to see if there's a snowier trend in the 2nd winter after the minimum or the first)

46 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Both, lol. I'll always be pulling for record snows in my Hometown. Besides, the entire Mid Atlantic is one big #SnowTown.

#sometimes....But as good as the snow can be, the heartbreak can be bad too, lol 

37 minutes ago, Jebman said:

You guys are gonna get buried ALIVE by deep deep snows in this 2018-2019 Winter. Records will be broken all over.

WxWatcher007 will not be able to help himself. He will be back in as The Reaper.

By late Jan 2019 you will all be begging me to come up from Texas long enough to dig you all out. Its going to be THAT EPIC.

Ya know...when I see your icon on the feed...I already know what I'm gonna see, lol But really...are you one that believes you can speak a good winter into existence, or are you just an optimist in general?

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thought I would share this quote from D'Aleo today on WxBell...

Tom Downs and I have not been confident this El Nino would actually be anything more than a modest Modoki. JB has been pointing towards a Modoki and using it in his analogs. I had observed going back through several solar cycles, that the attempts fail until after the solar minimum which is a year or more away (BTW we have had 130 spotless days this year to date heading for a top 10 quiet year like we saw a decade ago a few times).

Hi there! I'm from another region (the Mid-Atlantic but I've been kinda scanning the various boards for any winter discussion (since there are general things--especially La or El...that can affect us all!) So I'm wondering if the goalposts of what to expect may range from a Neutral to a weak El Niño....? I mean, is q third consecutive La Niña still on the table, or? (And I'm still not clear on Modoki...)

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Days until Winter 

131

 

https://days.to/until/winter

Now we gotta determine if it's gonna be Winter or "Winter"....Oh El Niño, c'mon you can do it, bro! (And again, neutral might not be good enough...but perhaps at least then we may be able to luck into something...maybe) At least it's a better chance than La Ick....I mean La Niña. La Niña is heartbreaker, El Niño is a dream maker!

31 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I suggest you follow Eric Webber on Twitter. Very helpful. Current observations not exactly telling of ENSO conditions in 4 months...can change quickly

*Eric Webb (I just looked him up...couldn't find him at first until I saw "Webb", lol)

40 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Subsurface is La Nina'ish. There's pretty much no chance of El Nino at this point. 

Sir please try and elaborate when you make posts like this...what are you basing this prediction on? (And how are you so sure this early?)

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

If anyone cares, on WB premium, JB says it will be a major cold and stormy winter... temp anomaly of -3 to -5, and calling for 133% snowfall for the area -- 167% is in C VA 

Oh for crying out loud...I mean can that even begin to be believable this early? (What is he basing it on? I mean sure, we'd all love for that to happen, but his stuff seems to be hype sometimes...)

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I do remember reading something about this as well. But if I recall correctly we were talking such a small sample size that you had to take this premise with caution.

Yeah I remember that we only had one or two examples to go by, so...let's hope it won't apply here (of course neutrals are always more hit-or-miss than Niños anyway, but...coming off of this bad stretch of Niñas, I would be even less trusting of a neutral, lol). Wonder if the "floor"  or worst case scenario, of this setup would be a neutral that hovers around negative as opposed to positive?

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can't claim to analyze winter potential like you do, but I love what I see. Granted, the last two years were practically unmitigated catastrophes so it's all relative, but I think this is the best setup the east has seen for a good winter since 2013-14 (where things looked muddled IIRC but everything broke our way). 

It hurts tropical (ENSO) but after the year we had, I'd trade a little tropical for a lot more winter. I think. 

Yeah, in my untrained opinion, definitely seems like this tropical season is gonna be much more hostile to tropical development than last year (someone commented on a high level of wind shear in another thread a couple days ago). But for a better winter than the last two...fine, lol We have been punished enough! (But how many weak to moderate El Niños have followed back-to-back Niñas? And I take it a neutral won't quite do it...Someone (I think it was @psuhoffman) that it didn't work well the last time we had a neutral after two Niñas...That would really suck if it happens like that! But...ya never know around here...But you'd think we're due (and if not this year, next year...I'm keeping expectations extremely tempered.)

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

There is still a lot of heat below the surface around 120W and west of 170W. There is an extended SOI collapse ongoing now which looks to continue into the future. The waters around 5S in the Nino 3.4 zone are still fairly cold. Overall though, August still looks like it is warming from July.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
5 Aug 2018	1012.05	1012.60	-13.17	2.46	-0.44
4 Aug 2018	1013.34	1012.60	-5.34	2.34	-0.46
3 Aug 2018	1013.80	1013.10	-5.58	1.78	-0.67
2 Aug 2018	1013.81	1013.30	-6.74	1.26	-0.79
1 Aug 2018	1013.63	1013.50	-9.04	1.18	-0.68

To put it simply...there is some warmth at the surface, there is some warmth below the surface, and the SOI is negative which to me indicates there is some kind of coupling going on. You can get a very hot Summer in the West with a developing Nino. A blend of 1958, 1994, 2002, 2014 is pretty close in JJA for high temperature departures to what has been observed the last 60 days.

I don't want to give the impression that I'm expecting some huge, or even moderate El Nino - I am not. I think the peak is +0.5-0.9C. Whether the peak lasts long enough to be considered an El Nino, who knows. The 2012-13 and 2013-14 Neutrals both got to -0.3/-0.4 for a time, and acted like a La Nina for a bit, so to me, that is possible in the opposite direction. 

Edit: Also, the PDO looks to me like it is warming some. Still near Neutral, but NOAA's PDO jumped quite a bit in July from June, and the JISAO value likely will too. The PDO for Nov-Apr is predictable by using a base state value for Mar-Aug and then Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs. You create similar initial conditions from analogs and that is Nov-Apr. A pretty good idea for what the PDO will do should be available around mid-Sept when the Mar-Aug base period is in and we have an idea what Oct will be doing in Nino 1.2

http://jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

So at this point...best we can hope for is a weak Niño, perhaps? (For the winter, that is...)

6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Cooling is happening where the last 2 La Nina events were centered
 

• 
  

The subsurface heat around 180W is why it won't go La Nina but stay above zero or slightly above. 

Oof...Man it's been hard to get El Niño to show up! Two Nina's and a neutral...Okay, Winter 19-20 we'd have to be due for it to come back, right??? C'mon!

58 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Absolutely. I just looked up the seasonal snow data for Hagerstown and according to the graph you posted 3 of the top 4 snowiest winters happened during a minimum. 

Not saying we are going to have a huge season but it's a positive thing we have going for us.

Any positive to add to the primordial mid-Atlantic snow soup will be quite helpful...lol

12 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Those mins are some stellar snow times 

Unscientific opinion: Ohhh,  THAT'S why 1996 managed the impossible feat of producing a bonafide I-95 blizzard during a La Niña! Lol (I mean seriously, after watching last season and learning about all the reasons La Nina snows don't work here? That was nothing short of a miracle, hahaha). 

But seriously, I would like to know more about just how much a solar minimum contributes to the winter...I mean I know causation doesn't mean correlation, but is it at least one helpful variable to add to the dozens of "things that need to go right" that we need that we can add to the list? 

57 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just another .35" overnight. 18.02" since July 1.

Are you serious? Wow...who made Baltimore City the target zone? Lol

35 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

Storm blowing up south of me i'm already under the anvil cloud and can hear some thunder

And ya know what the thunder says under such a a cloud? "ACME"

Pretty good downpour here in Baltimore now! 

3 hours ago, frd said:

Seems HM thinks more variables then just low solar . I agree, but having this in our favor can not hurt. 

I would actually like to see a moderate EL Nino , as weak just does not cut it down here in our region.  Bring on a moderate Nino and percentages of more significant snowfall rise. 

Also, wondering about the SSTs up near and North of Europe and what that means for blocking this winter seaon. Not talking the look of the tri pole for ideal - NAO, but more so the implications for the formation of blocking highs that may in turn retrograde towards Greenland over time, under more favorable hemeispheric QBO conditions, just speculation.     

 

 

 

 

 

Does anybody have any data on winters that followed a solar minimum other than 2009?

1 hour ago, yoda said:

As long as there is no SLP in the Great Lakes, I think we're good 

Don't even MENTION that, dude...lol After last winter, SLP Great Lakes is foul language!!!

On 7/26/2018 at 10:50 AM, frd said:

The spotless streak continues 

 

 

Now it's up to 31, according to the one who tweeted this!

Is there something about the region in particular that they can get 10-inch rainfall like this? (Wonder why it targets that area specifically like that). Or is this just a freak thing?

4 minutes ago, Saltydog said:

The system moving down from the plains. scroll up. 

So is the system coming out of the plains are sure thing? (Trying to figure out if Maria would have any way to track even further north)

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maria puts on the brakes at 120 and by 132 is moving NE as its being kicked out to sea... but Outer Banks definitely were hit this run

So what exactly is kicking it OTS?

Is it okay to assume that even if it were to go further west, it can't make the turn any further north? (What's stopping it? I'm an amateur weather geek, so I'm not sure what I'm looking at, lol)