Maestrobjwa

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From what I know it is a fairly regular periodic cycle- so once the wind changes direction it tends stay there for a while, growing in magnitude then decreasing again.. It roughly resembles a sine wave, although it tends to shift more abruptly and is not necessarily symmetrical(positive and negative alternations).

So we shouldn't count on it to help us this winter?

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From what I know it is a fairly regular periodic cycle- so once the wind changes direction it tends stay there for a while, growing in magnitude then decreasing again.. It roughly resembles a sine wave, although it tends to shift more abruptly and is not necessarily symmetrical(positive and negative alternations).

So we shouldn't count on it to help us this winter?

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes there is that, but also if we get a legit -AO developing over the coming weeks, along with continued decreasing solar/geomagnetic activity, a -NAO should be favored as we progress towards mid winter and beyond. The QBO might be a thorn in the side of this idea as it seems to be headed into positive territory.

Positive territory for the short term orthe long term?

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Probably a better view. If that ridging comes in stronger what we would probably end up with is an East based -NAO.

You think a -NAO is still on the table?

15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

 

Boo for the +NAO....gotta be the most stubborn one we've had in recent memory!

9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

NAO going negative just in time for the Winter..

What makes you say that?

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Distribution of snowfall anomalies looks more la nina like.

Don't use that word around these parts...

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We can fail with any storm but all long range guidance is now pointing towards higher odds of failing less often so there's that. Miller As are great because you can extrapolate radar instead of praying for redevelopment in time. We'll be able to watch giant slugs of cold rain propagate from the deep south right into our yards! 

Sweet mercy I am so done with that...See, I'm still young in the snow tracking game, so the last two years have taught me some hard snow lessons about that! (I still can't look at snowmaps without flashbacks...traumatized! hahaha)

So if you have a Miller A...it's more about those slugs of moisture coming from the south than timing the "bomb" off the coast? (So in other words...with those, we don't have to worry as much about it "bombing too late and hitting NE"?)

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We can fail with any storm but all long range guidance is now pointing towards higher odds of failing less often so there's that. Miller As are great because you can extrapolate radar instead of praying for redevelopment in time. We'll be able to watch giant slugs of cold rain propagate from the deep south right into our yards! 

Sweet mercy I am so done with that...See, I'm still young in the snow tracking game, so the last two years have taught me some hard snow lessons about that! (I still can't look at snowmaps without flashbacks...traumatized! hahaha)

So if you have a Miller A...it's more about those slugs of moisture coming from the south than timing the "bomb" off the coast? (So in other words...with those, we don't have to worry as much about it "bombing too late and hitting NE"?)

24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

We just need a continuous set of storminess, which has not been too difficult this year. I think we had one dry set right in July and then never looked back. Timing means everything and the more opportunities we have, the better. We get some blocking to slow the cold exit.... we get the snow. We do not need any storm in 10 days to make me feel we do not have good signs! There are so many good signs every Met, outside the NWS, has been pointing to a snowy winter.. that is PLENTY of signs!  

 

Feels like we need this in any winter given how we can fail on any storm, lol

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m usually pretty down on our snow chances because I realize that we pretty much suck, but I’m getting the feeling that, come mid- to late-December, the atmosphere is going to be looking for excuses *not* to snow around here. We’ll hit a 2- or 3-week period when there’s no shot (maybe around the second week of January), but we’ll be tracking again before  almost before that period has started.

I could well eat my words, but I’m getting that funny feeling in the *very* bottom of my belly for this winter...

So what are you saying...ya think we'll be tracking with no results or that we may actually get something?

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're still a few years away from outdoing the late 80s/early 90's stretch. I'm thinking we should be good by winter of 2021-22. 

Ew yuck again...lol But does this mean that...we have lower odds of seeing a -NAO this winter, then?

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good lord. 

Ew yuck!!! Why...just why? Lol Man I hope we can get that to break soon!

8 hours ago, frd said:

Yeah it looks like a deep cold outbreak coming up near later next week. This looks to be driven by the PV disruption forecasted a couple weeks ago.

The AO and the NAO both going negative again in the days ahead, for both this is the second dip into negative territory. Then later in the month there is one camp taking the AO positive and another camp taking it back down.  Surprisingly there is more consensus to keep the NAO closer to neutral or declining again. 

However there seems to be recovery on the PV after this minor disruption and at this point the pattarn later in the month ( after mid-month ) possibly seems to want to go more zonal. 

So, maybe we go to a back and forth pattern after the 17 th or 18 th.  The CFS , I know it is not good has some subtle support that the higher lattitudes might be changing down the road, to what would appear a warmer period corresponding with the zonal pattern on some models.  This is being supported somewhat at this time by the Euro.  

Not sure what this means for December yet. Of course many mets have a warner than normal,  or normal December temp-wise.

Of interest to mention for us here in the MidAtlantic is the NAO. HM had mentioned earlier this week that a wave 1 in November has a higher correlation to a December NAO.  

And a step further a wave 2 in November for whatever reason, has no correlation. 

 

Now I didn't quite understand what he meant by Wave 1 and Wave 2...Could one of you elaborate on what that means for the NAO? (And what do we want to see from those waves that could indicate which direction the NAO might go next month?)

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm too honest and don't like lying through my teeth. Sorry dude...

I was trying to sugarcoat my answer, lolol It is difficult to muster up good snow tidings for up there knowing full well that their success often comes at our expense...lol)

12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I think you have to assume Nov ends up +/-1F for the NE at the cold end, or warm in November given the highs are around +11 so far through 1/10 of the month. The PDO doesn't seem like it is going to be above +0.5 in Nov if the NE is going to be warm. I don't have an exact estimate for the PDO yet, I need to see the official Nino 1.2 October value, but I'm 75-25 toward it between -0.5 and +0.5 for Nov-Apr. I wouldn't be shocked if it pops to +1 for a month or two, but I think you have months right around 0 too from Nov-Apr. The next week will lower the NE heat from +11 or whatever to +3 or +4, but by that point, it is for 1/3 of the month and still difficult to displace. 

It's very rare to get big October rains in the SW if the PDO isn't in that Neutral zone, the ocean is either too cold for dying E Pac hurricanes (we had Rosa, Sergio, and moisture from Willa this year), or the ridge is already in place and sending in storms diving from NW to SE over the SW, and those storms don't have enough moisture to give us big rains. Most places in AZ/NM had a top-ten Oct for rain in 2018. 

I'm very curious to see if the El Nino can maintain the level it is at now or get even stronger in DJF, per the numbers Griteater is posting. I have this long-standing formula that blends in solar-data, Nino 3.4 for the current winter and Nino 3.4 for the prior winter, and it spits out accurate Tmax data for winters here. If we end up at 28C for the Nino in DJF though, the math says it should be very cold here, maybe coldest since the 1970s or 1980s for highs. 

Now when you say "here" I take it you're talking about your area? (NM?) I live in the Mid-Atl which is why I have a particular interest in the ENSO!

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

So far the "-SOI Sept = Cold Nov in TX" thing seems to be working - could obviously change by the end of the month. The correlation maps look dead on to Nov 1-3 in the green area.

1986, 2002 and 2014, which had big positive PDO values in Nov were cold in the East. We're already at the point in the NE where the heat will make it hard for the month to be more than a 1-2F colder than normal at best. 1994, 2006, 2009 on the other hand were warm in the NE. The +11 for Boston, even for a 1/10th of the month is hard to wipe out quickly.

 

So just to clarify...which end of the spectrum are you saying we're closer to? Those Novembers that were warm in the NE? (And what implications could that have going forward?)

8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Check out the daily ENSO numbers. There's a very good chance this Nino will achieve moderate status. That being said, DT going with a 200% call is bold. He normally likes to hedge a bit. With him being so gungho this time around gets my attention.

Ya think so? If it does reach that...then hey, I'd be willing to go (mostly) all in too! (Anybody else have any thoughts on it reaching moderate status? @psuhoffman, @Bob Chill?)

10 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Mod Nino's are the only time you can go big and have better than inside straight odds in the MA/SE. 

I want it all this year. Multiple miller a's and enough blocking to screw the NE. Been 9 years... WDI is positive

That's what I said...how can he go big like that when we don't know for sure if it'll even reach mod Niño status? (Unless he thinks that it will?)

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hopefully everyone from the Mid Atlantic to SNE cashes in.

When's the last time that's happened, though? Where both places cash in at once? (And doesn't SNE cash in every year--with many of the storms that miss us hitting them? Lol I mean as long as we BOTH cash in, okay...but them cashing in at our expense? I think we've seen enough of that just over the last two years alone!)

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

To be honest, for the SW, the most canonical El Nino conditions come from "big warm ups" from winter to winter. 2015-16 wasn't a big deal here, with 2014-15 warm. But 1972, 1997, 1965, 1957, 2006, 2009 and many others warmed from a negative ONI value the prior winter and ended up as very cold/very wet or both here. The El Ninos following an El Nino here are pretty crappy in winter - 2015, 1987, 1977, 1969, 1958, 1941, 1940. You usually get one huge snow event, decent precip, and warmth. The El Ninos after La Ninas are certainly much colder.

So in other words...this winter may be a colder El Niño since we had a La niña last year? (Do you have any data to show on that correlation?)

Sweet mama!!! Deluge here in Balt. City...definitely some good guests with this one!

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one point that I have been all over, yet I see many pros overlooking this...claiming that weak el nino events are great for the mid atl because they feature an active STJ. No, moderate el nino events are the bread and butter for the mid atl, though weak can still be very good. The weaker STJ inherent of weak el nino events tend to feature the miller B type as the predominate form of cyclogenesis, which usually focuses the wrath above the 40th parallel. See 2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, and so on.....even 1968, though it was mod ONI...its behavior was more congruent with its weak MEI classification.

2002, 1986 and 2009 were solid moderate intensity.

I think this one could sneak in to mod territoy, but 1.1- to maybe 1.2 is the ceiling imo.

TBH, if you are looking for a big fish in Baltimore or DC, then I'd rather a strong event, than a weak. Sure, it won't last, and the season may be a one trick poney, but mid atl HECS and even MECS are tough during a weak event. They need the potent STJ to deliver moisture. N stream won't cut it...especially south of Philly.

No, not strong! You don't wanna flip that coin between a possible one-hit wonder-like winter (2015-16, 1982-83) or no no snow at all (1972-73, 1997-98)...Moderate is best!

And really...perhaps when it's weaker, you still can get more moderate events...that's something, at least...most weak-moderate Niños seem to hit average snowfall...

Now uh...there's talk in the ENSO thread about how the warmth is going from west to east...as opposed to starting from east and draining west like it did in years like 2002 and 2009...Now, wha6 do we want, ideally? West-central based El Niños? (And what happens in the basin-wide and east based events? Any duds?)

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

2009 started east and went west. That is my problem with it. 2009 and 2018 are like ships passing in opposite directions at the same point, for a brief moment. These are like night and dry trends honestly. Maybe it doesn't matter? But my hunch is it does. 2010 looked most like a classic Modoki late. This event looked most like Modoki...now? There aren't many events that do the West to East thing, where the West warms first in an El Nino.

In what way do you think it'll matter?