Maestrobjwa

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This panel is a good visual. The ns vort helps raise heights in front of the ss vort and screws up the mid levels. 

And before someone comes in to tell me not to take a d10 op seriously... I'm not... Just pointing out something to keep an eye on as the whole thing evolves. Obviously there's no way in hell an op is going to nail anything in the northern stream this far out. 

After last winter, I don't even wanna see ns even TRYING to screw something up even on a d10 prog (hopefully that potential vanishes in the next several days)...that L in the north is burned into my memory, lol

@psuhoffman On another note....thank you for the in-depth explanation! Wow--between you and poster in another forum giving me a dissertation about whether there was any history of the blue blob and the ENSO...I've been to school today! 

Yes...modoki truthers...certainly seem to be of those out there, lol But interestingly, I had just read something in another article yesterday about 2009/10 not really being "modoki". Now, I take it modoki is thrown around as being an automatic snow-indicator (which draws the ire of the truthers? Lol)

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are better things to worry about than frozen water.  You're taking up the wrong hobby if you like certainty!  

I have tried focusing on your frozen water analogy to ease my mild obsession...update: it didn't work  I try and remind myself that all snow melts eventually...but my emotions won't catch up to the logic, haha But I digress...Learning all too well the uncertainty with this hobby. It's just...Ninos (weak-to mod, that is) work out the best...and looking at the awful failure the last two years have been, the thought of some unusual feature trying to screw us over for the entire winter is...yuck (especially now when we got a nino, low solar, favorable AO...the combination that always nets us at minimum a productive winter)

On the flip side...having an unusual feature that ENHANCES our snow chances...the thought of that is epic!

40 minutes ago, H2O said:

@psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally.  It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing.  Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air.  I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens.

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I could see that... there are no good analogs here with this type of sst configuration along with such a warm overall base state of the entire pacific.  I could also see this as loading the pattern even more.  When the jet crashes in off the pacific we go mild, but as you said it could also increase the STJ and so when we do get colder periods.... just have to hope we time them up.  This is uncharted territory so we will just have to see.  

Oh great...one more thing to worry about...lol So basically, this unusual feature could either be a hero or a villain? (And the hero being only if it's timed with an EC trough?) Ugh...I felt better with it being an ENSO year, and with the factor that sunk other weak-to moderate Niño years you mentioned (a raging AO) seeming not to be a problem, a productive winter felt safe. But now we gotta play Russian roulette with this feature because we don't know how it's gonna affect things! Eh...I like certainty, lol)

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't get too worked up about warmth during winter anymore...I know pretty much it is going to happen most winters due to latitude.  Most Nino winters have warmth, especially early.  It is important to note that it is not even winter yet, but it might as well be.  Here are a few evening thoughts:

1.  I have from the beginning thought this winter has been hyped a bit too much(not by anyone in our subform...or even the forum's other major contributors and/or seasonal forecasts).   Most know I have been a bit skiddish.  My memories of Nino winters are rarely of bitter cold.  I always remember how cloudy and rainy they are and how many just have high temps that seem to hover in the 40s and 50s for what seems like months on end.  Plenty of cold rain.

2.  I have great memories of some Nino winters and some lousy memories.  The 90s were chocked full of Nino winters. For those of us in the valleys with no elevation they were not as snowy as the decades that preceded them, those glorious winters of the 70s and a few monster cold winters during the 80s.  Remove the blizzard of 93, the winters of 93-94 and 95-96...and that decade was not the best compared to the ones that preceded it.  Now, localized areas of TRI had two BIG snows(the last of their kind) during the late 90s.  But recent weak Nino winters have proved to be pretty good.  Basically, I am saying a weak Nino is not a magic bullet and is not automatically a great winter.  However, they statistically are a good signal.  It is good to remember that sometimes things seem to line up perfectly, and we just don't do well.

3.  Back to the Weeklies and the really ugly(if you like winter) run of the 12z EPS(days10-15 progression).  We just have to hope they are wrong or short-lived.  BN heights when they get established over AK can be an absolute bear to move no matter the pattern.  My guess is that feature will last 2-4 weeks if it actually occurs.  We need to beware of the LR modeling right now.  This week is a great example of a total bust by the EPS.  Now to be fair, the flooding of NA by Pacific air and the scouring of cold from Canada is shown on many models.  I was reading some of Bob Chill's comments...basically said that if that unfolds in that manner, it will take significant time to reload Canada once it is over.  Not to put words in his mouth, but he seems on the fence about whether it actually happens and about the duration.  Either way, it is realistic to say that the feature over AK has been a common feature for many winters that were less than ideal.  

4.  So what now?  Sit and wait and enjoy the next few weeks of cold.  I think the MJO is a big driver right now.  It would be wise to watch it.  My guess is that the mid Dec warm spell probably coincides w warm MJO phases.  What is good about that?  Well, if the MJO follows it recent pattern...it will cycle out of those warm phases during later December or early January.  As Jeff said, the warm-up does not really change anything about many winter forecasts.  Many are backloaded.  And right now, I still fully believe that winter will return for a good 2-4 week period with plenty to track(those times may be split into two time frames).    I am thinking a really good shot at winter in mid January followed again by mid-late February.  That is off the top of my head based on the current MJO cycle.  Now it is also not guaranteed that cold cannot happen during warm phase of the MJO....I am guessing that this past month included some warm phases that were accompanied by cold here.   Also, need to really watch and see if those BN heights set-up shop over AK.  They should move eventually due to the ENSO state...but that is a strong signal and AK has taught me harsh lessons in the past in how hard it is to get that cold dislodged and moved into the eastern U.S.

5.  I still think winter is on track and agree w Jeff.  Our mets are the best out there...not sucking up, just speaking the truth.  My call has been slightly AN temps for Dec, normal for January, and BN for February.  I did call for a warm November, because I thought the last ten days would be warm....and we know how that will turn out.  LOL.  I will get some warmth, but not as billed....a warm weekend and not a warm week(minor differences - Ha!).  We may also get some sever weather this weekend. December will be a close call.  As I noted earlier, the cold during the first half of the month will be truly cold and will take some pretty incredible departures to eat away at that.  But if the EPS is right...if, if, if....then there is some pretty incredible warmth to follow the cold.  Big warm-ups have been a common features for the past three decades during winter.  I also noted that we would likely get slightly AN snowfall for the winter....that is almost always an educated guess at this latitude.  As for the overall DJF winter...I think we are close to normal for temps(slightly AN or slightly BN).

6.  And lastly, I have also noted that Nino winters require patience because they seem to often begin later than we are used to.  However, once the season is over, we are glad it finally warmed up!  To close, we want that AK feature showing up on LR models to be short lived or an error.   And it "should" move on due to the Nino...

Are there any records for an el Niño year where it DIDN'T move and remained a feature?...

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

December 5th rule 

Was just talking to my mom about that earlier...that series of years where we always seemed to get something frozen on that day...has it returned? Lol

Ha...0z GFS tryin' to muster up something for Day 8

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The window checks off some boxes. -AO/NAO are relaxing, active southern stream, solid cold airmass, and pattern is prob flipping to warm. That's a pretty typical combo to get a coastal in our area. All we can hope for is it to hold together as the leads close. 

Would be kinda funny if it ends up a southern slider. Upper air pattern evolution fits that possibility as well. 

No--NOT funny!! Lol

Coming on the heels of last year's torturous run of southern/eastern sliders, and with the pattern flipping this threat window...that kind of southern fail would just be.....mercy. If that were to happen, I would dub that the "ghost of nina 2017"!

So...since we've had some very early hinting around in the long range for some potential between the 8th and 11th...I still have my Almanac Watch in effect  

Old Farmer's Almanac says snow between 4-7th

Regular Farmer's merely says "Snow showers and scattered flurries, then clearing" for the same period; while predicting a coastal system (p-type not specified) for December 16-19th...

So both say "flakes"...with the Old Farmer's seeming to predict more of a storm (although it did not say "snowstorm" just "Snow") So we shall see! 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don't sleep on the possibility January is good. Most ninos have a snowy blocky period but a decent number of them it starts in January. January was a big snow month in 64, 66, 78, and 87. Just because February was the winner last few modoki ninos doesn't mean it will be this time.  I don't have the skill to pinpoint exactly when the pattern will align I just look at the analogs and say sometime in January or February we will likely get a snowy period. December is a crapshoot and leans warm even in a modoki nino. 

About that....as I go through weather twitter, there seems to be an opinion by some that this isn't a modoki niño and rather it looks basin-wide...(I can't quite tell, but...I think cranky is among those with that opinion) So uh...is it or ain't it?

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It certainly aint pretty.

OTOH, before we potentially get to that mess, here we go with 18z GFS @ hr 264..has a suppressed event, after the 12z run had a similar look for that time frame(Dec 9th). Right where we want it. Snow in southern NC? lol. This is probs the best window of opportunity before everything potentially goes to shiit for awhile.

Which is gonna make it a little nerve-wracking to track knowing that if we miss there's no telling when the next opportunity will be...

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's really bad. Basically a complete evacuation of cold air across the continent... especially western Canada. A pac onslaught of epic proportions. 

If it were to happen like that it would take a lot of work before winter returns. 

How much work? Like a month? (And wouldn't that be like...a record or something if that were to verify? And how often do we see this in a Niño?) That ain't bad enough to ruin the winter, is it? Lol (and why in the world is the PAC modeled to be so hostile?)

Uh...have there been a few  (very) stray flurries around this afternoon...or have I just been hallucinating? Lol (particularly up in the Cockeysville area)

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Keeping the pressure on .......

 

Important in what way?

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 11:10 am, Baltimore had picked up 0.14" rain. That extends this year's annual precipitation record to 65.00". The previous record was 62.66", which was set in 2003.

Beat the record...now we just runnin' up the score, lol

14 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I think low pressure patterns are showing their hand. Mostly  lake cutters, a few phase jobs that never work anyway, infrequent well placed coastal. This is why I do not see the big snow season for DC area. 

Already? Is there a correlation between cutters going into Dec and cutters the rest of the winter?... I mean...does having rainy coastal in the fall have any bearing for the propensity for snowy ones later on? 

37 minutes ago, Scud said:

Everything is ugly, at the end of the run.....

As long as the AO doesn't rage positive...no time for panic, right @psuhoffman? 

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This picture was taken yesterday from Arapahoe Basin in CO. Brought back a flood of memories of my years out there. I highlighted one of my favorite descents. Ridge access starts at the top of Loveland Pass. It's about a 1.5 hour hike from the pass to the circled face called No Name Peak. After skiing the peak you skin the lower ridge to the top of an amazing glade called No Name Trees. After skiing the trees your right back on highway 6 and hitchhike back to your truck on top of Loveland pass. The entire loop is about 4 hours and that includes plenty of sightseeing and goofing around in the backcountry. I did this circuit at least a dozen times when I lived out there. 20 years later and I still think about it frequently. I miss CO...

 

So...ya used to ski on a sperm mountain? 

1 hour ago, coolio said:

Final total was 1.54" as that last whip around exits.  DCA is in the top 5 or 10 of rainiest years. You gotta think Baltimore is #1 already bc they've gotten more than us I'm sure. 

Edit: I see that donald sutherland has us at #4.

Yep--I think it was the surprise snow-rain event that put us in Baltimore over the top!! Now we're just running up the score...lol

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It is. Hopefully it's wrong. Or only a short lived phenomenon. 

Is that something that could ruin even an El Niño winter? (Now you said the only duds in the weak-moderate nino years were because of a +AO....anything else that could sink things?)

So in other words...tune in next Friday to see if it's gotten any clearer? Lol

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

People need to understand... we won't know for 2 weeks. If it sucks in 2 weeks then we can move on to next winter. 

Coming off of back to back fail years (or 3 years if ya don't count the one hit blizzard of 2016)...patience is gonna be even shorter than usual, lol

ALMANAC WATCH

So, I'll say this if the almanac has something for a particular date range AND current LR guidance gives even a hint at something in the same time frame! (But again...NOT a forecast or anything...just stating what it says!) 

So, for late November and December:

Nov 28-30: "Stormy; rain/snow/sleet"

Dec 1-3 "Fast-moving storm from the Great Lakes spreads gusty winds, moderate-to-heavy precipitation into New England, the Northeast."

**Could this be the clipper showing up on some models out in fantasy range? (Though the Nov. 28-30 is where it shows up...so we shall see!)

EDIT: Seems even the more conservative Old Farmer's Almanac also predicts snow during the first week of Dec...gonna be interesting to see how the LR evolves!

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Here's a good example of the problem of an overactive Pac jet in today's Euro.  We have a storm coming toward us that's trying to transfer to the coast because of the -NAO and 50-50 low, but this monster s/w crashing into CA gives us no help.  Need more separation between those waves so that ridging over the Plains backs up about 500-700 miles toward Idaho/Nevada.  

 

UGH!!!!! Always somethin'...lol Can we still hope for a 500-700 mile correction in the modeling (I assume it's far enough out to not rule out seeing that?)

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Op runs are going to be all over the place for several more days still because of two factors:

1.  Complicated interaction of the late weekend/early next week storm and where it ends up parking underneath the NAO ridge.

2. Developing pac firehouse into the west coast. Fast flow and lots of short waves makes things complicated. This jet is going to keep the risk of cutters around until it backs off a bit.  We need need some spacing between waves so we can get some transient ridging out west to help drive something underneath us.

 

So I take it this would come down to the precise timing of those waves, then?...(And that "pac firehouse"...is that what you guys call a "hostile pac"?) And that precise timing of how much space is between waves...is difficult for the models to figure out right now?