Maestrobjwa

10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS is a step back in terms of snowfall.

 

I think it's way too early to be living and dying by each snow map (quite frankly I think that's a futile exercise in a somewhat complicated setup like this that the models are just starting to pick up on!)

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

We all know what dr no is getting ready to do:(

Uh...dude? You do realize that the GFS had been playing Dr. No until yesterday, right, and that it was the EURO that was spitting out what the GFS is now starting to show?

1 minute ago, Ji said:

im more interested in bobs storm 10 days out

Now wait a minute ya can't go jumpin' ship now, man! Lol This is the Ji-storm (but I'll gladly take it over if ya don't want it )

12 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The Bob Chill storm just showed up on the euro 

Hm...looks like we got two swings coming up, then! (that is, if we are still seeing this a few days from now). One is a knuckle ball, and the other may just be a fastball...can we homer on one or both? (But seriously, given all the uncertainty about February, I sure hope we can take advantage of at least one of these!)

Just now, jaydreb said:

Here’s the @Bob Chill storm.  

 

And now ladies and gentlemen we have a battle of two storms. In one corner, we have the totally wacky, really wonky, surprise snow 20th anniversary... @Ji storrrrrm! And in the other, ya got the fantasy land, Miller A cleeeeeean coastal... @Bob Chill storrrm!! Which will win? Will it be a draw? (as in either both snow or both bust) Showdown!!

P.S. I think I'll bet imaginary money on the wonky storm! Teeam wonk!  (but obviously I'll take either!)

34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

At least the Vikings put up a fight...dang the 49ers are fast

Yes...very fast!!

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with?

Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol

24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in?  

If that were to happen, I'd be kinda proud to say that I stayed checked in!  (and mainly it's because of history, really...I mean sure, we could get our 3-4 year footer in sometime next month...but having it happen this way would be sweet, lol Does the trend continue?...)

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's early, but I think the GFS won't be looking like the Euro.  If anything it's a little further north than its previous run.

The GFS is trying to play Dr. No this time, lol (but is it a little by itself with the transfer being further north?)

Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air?

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji....

I think Chill kinda temporarily checked out (and he said he's been busy) and psu is just taking a break from the boards in general for a couple days. I'm sure Ji's around...lol

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

I got a feeling we are going to rebound back to a good look soon...still watching next weekend lol

Hey, ya never know! (and I can't give up weekend either, lol)

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is one of the rare crap seasons that something is saying it isnt over. Normally I would have bailed 2 weeks ago lol. But I really think hl blocking is going to show up at the tail end and provide 1 nice storm. I really wouldnt be shocked if we wait the entire season then end the 2nd half of Feb with back to back storms. Would love a back to back holiday blitz....Valentine's and PD. 

I've been feeling the same way...Of course part of that may be the "historical trend" part of me that believes in the 3-4 year rule for 1 foot snowstorms, lol But in general, it does seem like whatever we get may be in a short window or two!

Something tells me...that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It takes a low from the panhandle of Florida straight north to northern Indiana.

Oh is that what it does? (now I don't have anything other than TT, so I had assumed that wasn't the same low, lol) What the heck?

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That euro is one of the strangest things I’ve seen.

In what way?

Not sure whether this is freezing rain or not...temp on phone app says 30°...32° at TV Hill

7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

I get ya...but of course you know we won't be able to help ourselves, lol

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend. The gfs has started to move toward a workable solution. on a side note I broke my left arm yesterday so excuse the crappy typing over the next few weeks. I bet my typing will still be better than DT's

Oof!! How'd ya do that? 

Glad I'm not alone in feeling a bit better about next weekend! Pieces seem to be moving around...maybe some baby steps towards something better the next few days? (6z GFS crushed NE, lol Since that wasn't there yesterday...and the EURO also tipping ever so slightly to a different solution...I'm still gonna keep watching! Still a ways to go, though)

Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?

9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GFS might try and get tricky too.  Much lower heights in the NE.

edit: not quite but it’s all we got going forward

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Oz Guidance was collectively better.  Qpf increase was almost across the board. Even the Hrdps which didnt have much if any morning snow band has 1 now.

Yeah that Oz Guidance is a real wizard with the snow  (sorry, couldn't resist. Now back to storm focus) 

So is the amount of moisture we get gonna kinda be a nowcasting thing? (how well do the models do with dry air and such ahead of time?)

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok less extremes. Even if everything fails within the next 2 weeks we still have February and early March to score a better look and or a fluke snow. The odds of this being a good snowfall year are decreasing rapidly but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get anymore snow at all. Try the middle. It’s a nice place. 

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Keep the faith brother. hm is anticipating coastal storms at the end of the month(our prime climo time).

Man I hope he's right...because again, I'm starting to wonder if that could be our last shot.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope it’s degrading run after run as more members agree on a AK vortex with +++ NAO. It’s almost impossible to overcome that combo. The Hudson ridge is the only thing creating any slim hope. 

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)