Maestrobjwa

50 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

What happens nationally after a cold November in an El Nino like this one is pretty interesting. Years with similar looking cold by magnitude and spatial setup have something of a warm signal overall. I excluded years where the core of the cold was not over the Plains in Nov like this year. 1957, 1969, 1976, 2002, 2014 are kind of similar but with some major issues so I didn't use them. I made sure to pick years to put the core of cold over MO/KS like it has been this Nov with the East/West coasts warmer than the middle of the US.

Are there any tendencies in the six years for December? I would say, yes several.

1) FL is warm in 5/6 years.

2) NM/AZ and Maine are cold in 5/6 years.

3) The Northern Plains are very warm or very cold, in 3/6 years each. I take that as a pattern flip, and a near average signal. Worth noting, two of three cold years had -PDO values in November, so that's worth watching. I wouldn't be shocked if the cold continued in the Northern Plains until mid-month and then flipped for a while.

Generally, I don't like the look of 1951 and 1968, so I'm going to throw them out. This is the blend for December for 1940, 1972, 1986, 1991 nationally. The CFS has Dec 1940/1991 essentially.

I'm always bothered when I see those years that were crappy winters in my neck of the woods used...all 4 of those were crap (as in no snow, lol) Please tell there's something different about this year! (how were the AO/NAO and such those years?) Now some of the years you threw out...57-58, 2002, 2014 were great! 

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty. 

Of course! She's like the mama bear of this forum! (And @mappy I mean that in the best way You just have the air of "knock it off you two!" when we get unruly...lol)

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What if we post the Fox News map next to the MSNBC map then have a panel on to debate about it. 

We don't need no alternative weather maps in here!!! Lol

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow, this does look impressive. I would think the outcomes are more El Nino like conditions and a longer lasting El Nino into the Spring and beyond possibly.

No wimpy kid here. 

This combined with seasonal blocking patterns hopefully delivers a big dog eventually. 

 

 

Is it still possible that...it could reach moderate status at some point? (And this officially Modoki, btw?)

On 11/16/2018 at 2:39 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

I certainly didnt take his post one way or the other not to mention I would never have stuck my neck out with an outlook if I didnt expect criticisms so its all good I dont take anything here personal.

Being a snow freak I hope my outlook busts horribly and I95 corridor sees 1500% AN snowfall this year 

Things look decent going forward for now but I will add just a few things. Last year we had epic patterns and teleconnections show up in the LR....some looks materialized, others didn't, but in terms of real weather, the epic pattern we DID see were more or less duds at the surface for us. Blocking was epic, undercutting energy was there, etc but more times than not it never materialized so while getting the LR players to show up on the field is one thing , getting a storm to workout is whole different ballgame.

Also, I have some concerns regarding the early starts to winters past and how those early starts correlated to lackluster seasons in Philly proper overall. Couple that with many El Nino years in general in research shows those Decembers mostly provided 180 degree flips in the pattern. Again, I cant say for certain but history and the above factors say December could flip on us to a not-so-favorable look.

Hoping yesterday's storm is a precursor to the type of winter were are headed into but I have my reservations thus why my outlook is what it is.

In regards to your reservations about early starts...

Now, I am not sure how closely we can evaluate/compare Philly vs. Baltimore annual snow totals, but...I've been looking at the totals going all the way back to 1883-84...Specifically, I've been zeroing in on November snowfall! And from what I can see, getting an inch or two in November resulted in a good or great winter more often than a dud...

And even if it does flip after like mid-December...given how many weak-moderate El Niño years hit average snowfall or above...would that really be a concern? (unless we had a highly positive AO or something)

Also, you mentioned the good looks that didn't materialize last year...now, ya have to wonder if the result would have been different in a Niño, lol But you're right...LR looks aren't everything, but you do have different elements at play this season vs. last season, of course... 

But at the very least, the probability that we go into December with a -AO and -NAO look seems to be increasing!  (especially if the LR guidance continues to show it by the end of this week!). So we shall see (and of course...around the mid-Atlantic, ya always gotta watch with tempered excitement until the storms actually get here, lol)

18 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

When I was starting my research many years ago, I looked at some of their forecasts. This would have been around 1981-84. It became obvious to me that their method had something to do with picking an analogue winter and date shifting it to match lunar dates of the current winter. Here's a hypothetical example. You think 1909-10 will be a good analogue for 2018-19. Maybe solar activity and other teleconnections come into the decision too. So you look up the lunar dates for 1910, compare them to 2019, and shift the weather data already recorded for 1910 to the 2019 corresponding dates. It can't be more than 15 days different to shift either forward or backward to match them up. (I have not quoted a real analogue year here, nor have I looked up the difference in lunar dates).

Every 19 years the moon has similar dates, also 8 and 11 years are small corrections. That means little to chances of choosing those years because the moon is only viewed as a sort of modulator of the overall weather pattern, not the creator of it. So if the overall setup looks good in the analogue winter, the number of days you have to shift is not a big concern. 

I'll follow this thread, and perhaps I can tell you from the results which analogue winter they are using and reveal the date shift involved. Then you can predict what the Almanac will predict from looking at that analogue winter and shifting the dates accordingly. Let's hope 2009-2010 is it. If so, the shift will be about -9 days (lunar events in that winter ran 9 days later than this winter). That makes the period Jan 21 to Feb 19 look very enticing (because it snowed several times Jan 30 to Feb 28 of 2010). If I had to use this method alone, I might just choose 2009-2010 and date shift it myself.

The one thing that they might or might not realize is that date shifting requires some phase alterations because some lunar events shift slightly different numbers of days, so just because you have a stellar analogue ten days later than your winter forecast of choice does not mean you can do a seamless date shift of ten days, some parts have to be shifted more like eight or twelve days. And that might concentrate or defuse a storm system to have the two separate energy sources shifting different amounts. 

Just picking a year at random and lunar-date-shifting won't be very useful because you might randomly select a totally different pattern. This only works (to some extent) if you have a good pattern match. Another variable that doesn't shift seamlessly is lunar distance, the perigee cycle is independent of phase and declination. Perigee analogues are found every 9 years back (8.86 if you want to be more precise). And hey lookee there, 2019-9 = 2010. Hmm. 

Huh...that is a very interesting theory! (Certainly would crack the code a bit...Now I'm an amateur enthusiast, so a little of your post went over my head a bit, lol But I think I kinda get what you're saying: they somehow choose an analogue year (how, btw? Similar lunar or solar records?)

And after that, you're saying the do the date-shifting thing to match the current season?

Interesting...such would imply that things in weather can repeat themselves in a certain way or something...Either way, it always impressed me when they do nail something down to the very day!

58 minutes ago, frd said:

Sorry, meant to say a quicker transition to a +PNA. If so, maybe that  helps us in future runs.   

That would kinda put us in holy grail territory (-AO, -NAO, +PNA) wouldn't it?  (And as of now, what is it showing? The PNA not becoming positive fast enough?)

10 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The modeling for todays indices are about as good as it gets in the LR.

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive - Great

A0 - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

This would come together the last part of November into December. For many of us (especially outside the mountains) this is the time of year winter storms become more possible. **as discussed already, this past storm was just a little too early in the year for a major piedmont winter storm.   

Up north in my forum, somebody once called that the holy grail...lol Hope it holds for all of us snow eligible regions on the EC! 

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is no easy answer to this and it's two different answers depending where in our region you are. History has shown places west of the fall fine with some elevation can get a decent snow event in December much easier.  

But I think you are more focused on the urban corridor.  The best 2 ways to get it done there are an incredibly anamolous cold shot or a perfect h5 setup and a perfect track surface storm in tandem with just enough cold to work.  

If you can get a reasonably cold airmass and a perfect track it can happen.  Or very anamolous cold and a wave.  But the problem is getting that.  Both are rare in December.  Cold just typically hasn't had enough time to build enough to press the jet this far south on average.  When we do get cold it's typically a quick shot then out.  But I don't remember too many instances where we got a perfect setup and it failed simply because it was December.  More often the real problem is getting a perfect setup this early is difficult.  By perfect I mean cold enough air mass and a system to take the perfect track.  Even this storm yesterday could have been more snow in DC had it taken the perfect track.  An h5 through PA and a surface storm up the Delmarva inside ocean city is a flip to rain track for 95 even in January.  One of the most impressive things was the result given that unfavorable track.  I wouldn't honestly expect to do any better then I did here with that track even in winter.  Had the h5 tracked 100 miles south and the surface system tracked off the coast instead of inside it D.C. Could have had a warning criteria snowfall.

In the last 20 years there have only been 4 systems pre xmas to get significant snow into the coastal  plain that I can think of.  One was dec 5 2003.  That was a miller a/b hybrid that was pretty weak at the surface and h5 but took a perfect track and had the advantage of a nino stj.  There was a weak frontal wave in 2004 that dropped 3-6" east of D.C.  A clipper in 2007 that maxed out and then of course 2009 which was the ultimate perfect h5 and surface track.  So 4/20 years had a signoficant snowfall on the coastal plain pre xmas.  That's only 20%.  But 2 of those were modoki ninos so it's 2 out of the 4 modoki ninos in the last 20 years.  Not bad odds if we look at it that way.

 

 

Awesome explanation as usual! 

So in other words...since, for whatever reason, it's harder to get a sustained cold shot (or a short one that's unusually cold) here in December (why is that? Just our climo?), that's why we don't get as much snow there as the other months?

And that's an interesting parallel with the modoki factor...(which two were? 2009...what was the other year?). Is there a reliable list of modoki el Niño years that goes back further than 20 years? (Just curious)

So, to start...

HIT: For Nov. 16-19: "Some rain, wet snow, then fair/cold"

What actually happened: Rain and snow occurred just a day before this date range (the 15th)...and now we have fair and cold weather on tap for the next several days

Okay, so even if just for pure entertainment purposes...I just wanted to start a thread where I can just tally the times the Almanac gets it right and when it doesn't! (And mods, if this is out of line, I understand) This isn't saying it'll definitely be right or wrong...just a fun observance of their predictions--be it spot on or way off!

(Note: I won't be covering every prediction it makes...primarily the stormy ones!)

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't set expectations too high. Meaning don't expect an event to come easy during the first week of Dec. It might happen but just having a good longwave pattern is only a piece of the puzzle. Our big events usually happen when the NAO goes from negative to neutral or positive. Sometimes during a building -NAO it can be dry here. Even moreso in the NE. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited to see the high latitudes cooperate leading into Dec but it could take weeks before anything happens. 

Which makes me wonder about potential in mid-December?...If the pattern is set to relax...maybe that would be the time if we get something?...

So...what can make things, well...NOT dry during a -NAO phase? (What's the other piece(s) needed?)

And please bear with me...I'm not trying to hype anything, nor do I expect anything to come "easy" or be a sure bet...I'm still learning the mechanics of our winter weather around here, and this is the first weak-mod niño I've actively followed...Each year I've learned something new (with the last two years being the harshest lessons, lol). Still tempering expectations...

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15!  

Ohhh boy...gonna be a long 15+ days, one way or the other! (And if it still looks like that a week from now...and then 10 days...yep, tracking parade.) Man, seems like we are so close! It's getting harder and harder to temper excitement, but I think I'll hold it in till the end of next week...still gotta watch...

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That may very well happen, and I made a post in the winter thread about the GEPS and CFS losing the -NAO by mid month. I think its pretty likely it stays negative until around then. Beyond that the pattern may become more Pac driven, but as long as the AO doesn't flip to raging positive we should be ok.

Please no raging positive AO...The few weak-moderate El Niños that have failed here have been because of that!

16 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

It occurred to me that I may have misread the tone of your post, so it's cool that you replied. And we're all for maximum snow, except for maybe Voyager, but he has to drive large heavy trucks in it so we give him a pass. Here's hoping! How did you do yesterday?

1.7" was the official total down here in Baltimore (city)! County got like 5 inches. (Which is the most we've had in November since like 1989, lol) And the last time we even had measurable Nov. snow was 1995! You?

26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That period looks legit. Just screaming MA winter storm. Of course that does not necessarily mean an all snow event. Despite less than ideal climo for the cities and east though, the chances increase if that NA look verifies because we can get a favorable storm track with a good enough cold air source.

I was just going to ask a question about what exactly we need to beat the climo in early December to get snow to work even in the corridor, lol

3 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I give them credit for making the effort to do the research and put the thought into it that they do, and I appreciate it. Kind of early to say how the winter will turn out. I'm sure they like snow and a good storm as much as you and I and many others who post here. I like the way things look, but the weather can sure humble you if you get cocky.

Very true...and I didn't mean to mock them or sound condescending (I apologize if it came off that way). Of course, I hope they're both wrong for snow's sake (not to rub it in)...and that's probably why it may have sounded that way! (I'll be a little depressed if we end up with a mixy winter...but I hope the NAO can save that from happening!)

On 11/13/2018 at 11:28 AM, The Iceman said:

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking.  Analog years are  63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95.  As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not.  One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown:

 

Dec 

Temps 0 to -2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north)

Jan

Temps +1 to +3

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W

Feb

Temps 0 to +2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Below Normal 95,  Normal N and W

 

Thanks for reading!

So it sounds like both you and @Ralph Wiggum's forecasts will either live by the NAO or die by it...lol I'm REALLY gonna be watching it now! And of course...it would only take one storm during even a passing neg NAO to also work out better for the corridor, right? (And of course, if it finally breaks it's recent pattern become a more dominant feature...even better, right? (aren't weeklies hinting at least going into December as negative? Of course, too early to say if it stays there, I guess)

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty nice to have the EPS and GEFS looking very similar to each other in the mid range. I dont know if those temps are gonna do it in early to mid December. But we will definitely have some tracking to do over the next month. Sure beats the past couple of winters where we really had nothing to even talk about for weeks on end.

What, are they borderline like they were today? Lol (now I too am a bit spoiled by this event...I'm not sure I wanna see 3 r/s screw jobs in a row. I can give it pass for November. But of course, I know...December climo!). What do we need to punch past that climo if a storm opportunity(s) does arise?

On 11/14/2018 at 4:34 PM, psuhoffman said:

Nothing to add. All the guidance looks like someone let JB have the magic crayons.  Both for the winter and for the immediate look heading towards the start of winter we couldn't ask for anything more. I kind of keep waiting for "the other shoe to drop" but everything keeps coming up aces in how things are evolving. If things still look like this in a week and it becomes apparent we will head into December looking like this it might be time to just accept this is likely going to be a big year!  I'm right on the ledge about ready to dive in. 

Hahahaha! I think you just made the plot for a children's movie about the weather...lol This is going on my "quotes of the late fall/winter" list...

Let's hope the magic crayons keep on colorin'!!

BWI: 11/15--1.7 inches

2018-19 Season Total So Far:

"1.7"

Just over an inch here in Baltimore. Just the fact that we hit that number in November...lol

Been mostly snow here in NE Baltimore City for the last 1 1/2 hours (perhaps 20% sleet at times). Starting to here a few more pingers but still pretty big flakes!

31 and has flipped back to moderate snow here in NE Baltimore City! Can we hold onto to it for a bit? 

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We actually have a positive NAO and it's about to tank!

So hang on...is it actually a sure bet now that it's going to tank?