Maestrobjwa

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I can envision a path to a white Christmas through this...

Cue Tony Pann...lol If it happens, he deserves his name on that storm! 

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Was about to post this. This storm is going to decide how it’s viewed this whole winter.

 

Yep...it's reputation is already on the line...lol And the opinion will could be sharp in either direction...receiving a winter of hugs or a winter of tosses, lol

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs had a run that didn't get anything into nc even. Lol. It's a bad run though. I agree that if we don't start to see any improvement in 36 hours it starts to become unlikely. 

Mannnn this thing ain't comin' north...lol I'd bet money on it if I were a gambler (but it would be an unwise bet because it's one drive  by cynicism, lol) 

(I think I'll be less cynical when we actually get good model trends that eventually result in a hit...but the past two years...multiple failures, and trying to will a ns feature out of the way. Gotta think the nino will make things easier though...just gotta be patient. But again, the last two years is making that difficult. Can barely remember what a good tracking week felt like!)

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

As is 0 feet, yes.  They are both within the envelope, and both show up on the ensembles.

I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?)

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Because it's still within the envelope of possibilities. All of them are. 

2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?)

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's gonna be e16!!!

Now see I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not at this range. We have had a few examples of big storms that locked in day 7 but that's rare.  Think of the 2 storms that teased us the last two January's. Both were way south at day 6. Both trended north enough to hit the coast and NYC. They were on the outside looking in like we are now at day 5-6. Last 2 march storms trended north. 2017 turned from a snow to a sleet storm. Last winter almost screwed us with the final north trend. The heaviest area of snow ended up in central PA and to NYC and they were mostly out of the game 72 hours out. 2016 I was hanging out on the northern fringe all week leading up. The heaviest actually ended up northwest of me!  20" got up into central PA. NYC was outside looking in then set their all time record. Feb 2014 I was up in central PA and outside looking in all week and ended up with 13".  

Do they always trend north? No...and like I said earlier if I had to bet this likely stays south. But it's close. 60/40 close Imo. I think because we haven't had a late save from the south lately people are thinking that just doesn't happen. But it can. We have been screwed by the north trend several times recently and places like Salisbury and ocean city and Richmond have been saved by it. Maybe it's our turn. Maybe not. But people are making way too many declarative statements based on fairly close misses at 120 hours. I wish guidance was that good but it's not!

I'm sure it can, but...yeah, kinda hard to believe  given all the resistance it seems to be getting from that pesky ns vort...(unless the models are gonna be wrong about that...)

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

but prob not as good as 18z

Why do ya say that? Looks pretty similar so far!

35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Better than 12z so far but no 18z.  Nothing is ever too easy

Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival!

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess but it's better then 12z. I just don't want to see squash city at this range. Once we get to about 100 hours I'll want to see consistent improvements or I'll start to worry more. At this range just keep it close. 

I mean...has this storm ever felt like it wanted to turn north?...Seems like the whole flow or whatever is flat or something (and, as cranky had suggested earlier...the open Atlantic, limiting lattitude?)

And if it were gonna be more north...wouldn't we be at least seeing a hint of consensus that that could happen?

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Happy hour FV3 definitely an improvement along with the 18z GFS. 

Yep--definitely ticked north

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does.  I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even. 

Sir fringed has spoken!

18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

there is an evil face in Ohio...must be the NS throwing some sort of evil hex our way

It's probably the ghost of nina past (2017/18 to be exact...)

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

hearbreaking map but close enough. 

 

Looks like a nina map...lol

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not disagreeing that rain could become a problem but the issue is that vort diving down into New England is unlikely to help. Because of the trajectory it takes (coming in on top or to our northeast) for it to be close enough to provide any assistance with cold it would have to squash the storm. With a lobe rotating down into New England the only way that is providing us with cold is if it's still right there and then it's going to flatten the heights and squash. What we needed was the cold to be injected from the north or northwest then to have general confluence to our north to help hold it in but not a strong northern stream vort diving in on top of us. That's what killed the mid march threat last year btw. The one that got squashed before we finally scored a hit.  

That one has been burned into my mind...it's basically turning into that crap all over again! Once again a ns vort coming at the wrong time in the wrong position, smh Bad fortune

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I heard the GFS op sucks. Can someone please confirm?

Old GFS bad...FV3 pretty good!

9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

lol, low in Mexico Sat 0z on euro

Don't tell me it's gonna squash it even more...mercy

54 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Ukie looks great to me, cmc is a hit, euro fun in an hour?

Now uh...is there actually credence to the idea of a good ukie run preceding a good euro run?

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support

Nails getting put in the coffin already?....Ya know, if it's gonna miss, I'd rather know now, lol

Looks flattity flat...

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's also still kinda worth watching Wednesday a little. GFS keeps showing an area of T-1" or so in the Central/Western part of VA. 

One of those things that could get a little more juice over the next few days. I'm sure it'll tease us by looking healthy Tuesday evening.

I'm telling ya...I've been having a feeling that this one sneaks up on us, lol

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Cranky wrote a nice synopsis of the pattern.  http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm

My favorite quotation from this article that encapsulates this forum:

"Significant drop offs in stability and confidence in modeling begins right around Day 4 but really accelerates day 6 onward. No point in driving yourself insane "now the GFS came north!" or "now the ECMWF is flatter!" and chasing either or both or playing the "it will come back" or whatever kind of games. Usually intended to find a way to bring the perfect scenario to pass. Of which is a hard sell for this one."

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's every single storm. Sometimes a tiny thing saves us too. Never forget our climo. The majority of winters are sub climo and we can go years in between big storms. Enjoy the chase win lose or draw because it's fun mental exercise but never believe it's going to snow until you finish shoveling

Ah but the weak-to-mod ninos winters hit climo (at minimum) MOST of the time, correct? (Even if it's through smaller storms). That's why I've been kinda banking on this winter (since the last two were pretty miserable). 

And I've been thinking...The last 9 years it feels like we've had more storms to eclipse a foot than the previous decade. So the 2010s seem to have had shorter spaces between years that had big storms. In terms of our climo, the fact that we've had at least five storms eclipse the foot mark from 2009/10 onwards is actually pretty good (so I suppose we should be grateful, lol). But I think that's spoiled some of us (including me--especially since I didn't start following this forum until the awesome 2013/14 winter, lol)

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Here's a good visual of the difference between the GFS and F3 for the NS. I think this shows how a little difference goes a long way 

Wow...so that could sink us or save us--mercy. May as well flip a coin, lol (but let me guess...this could very well flip and back and forth on modeling over the next few days?) And if we end up on the losing side of this--I suppose this is a lesson in how just one small thing in the timing can ruin a snow chance...wow.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's always part of the game. Too much ns interaction too early and it goes west. Phase in a good spot and we get destroyed. Block instead of phase and we get a southern slider. I mentioned when this first showed up that the pattern fits a good hit and also a southern slider. 

Models won't have the ns nailed down for prob 3 more days at least. It can easily get much better or it can get much worse. It's insanely rare for a storm to not go through many scenarios as leads shorten. 

I think 2016 screwed with my expectations in this regard...it was SO easy for that storm--Day 7 onward was just lockdown...but obviously that was very rare. (Then again, I wanna see how many of our bigger storms went through a few bad looks on the modeling before locking in)