Maestrobjwa

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I can’t believe I’m up for the Euro. Hope it’s worth it. 

Not something written on here often on the first day of December...lol

Just now, Bob Chill said:

FV3 with a very similar solution now makes all 4 ops looking the same. Uncanny.

Ya know the last time we saw that kind of agreement was...January 2016, lol

Just now, yoda said:

I think we are using the new thread by WxUSAF to discuss the Dec threats now...

Somebody might wanna lock this thread, then...December time! 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok kids, preseason is over. Winter is here 

Dang it, man! Why did ya have to put "torch" in the tags for this? Lol

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like an inverted trough offshore this run. I'm not ready to look past it . I'm betting it gets wetter inside 72 . How much..who knows. Hopefully it bumps north as well.

I'd take that bet...me gut tells me it's gonna be a sneaky quick-hitter!

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your point is well taken. However the last couple years much of that variability was in a northern stream dominant Nina pattern and guidance was all over the place from range with longwave features and even if a storm would exist at all. At least this time all the guidance had a storm in the same general area and we're debating details. Important details but the models might be more stable at range in this pattern.  An stj system traversing the Conus as a cold pattern starts to relax in a nino is a pretty typical way we score.  Doesn't mean this won't fail just some reasons to be more hopeful then long range teases during a Nina pattern  

 

Never, ever, EVER trusting anything in the LR in a Nina again. Probably the hardest lesson I learned last winter, lol

If your theory about the EURO is true...and it were still be showing said solution by say...Sunday or Monday...maybe we can prepare to buckle up? Maybe...lol (I think the EURO needs to take it's crown back...and now is an excellent time to do it! 

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's notable that we torch 1 weekend before a weekend #ecs potential.

Ah...but then 5+ days of cold before said storm chance! 

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a straight up lambasting. Might mix for a time with slp track but it's a front end, middle, and backend thumparoo

Thumparoo??  Sir you just earned a spot on my list of forum quotations for winter 2018-19, lololol

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Obviously the whole evolution could change since we are still at really long range here but right now most of the guidance is suggesting that kind of interaction.  The initial stj wave is way out ahead of the upper level support diving into the trough from the northern stream.  Given the flow, if that stj system is on its own and doesn't interact at all its likely to be a southern slider.  But...most of the guidance is now suggesting some sort of convoluted interaction where perhaps there is a front runner that escapes then a second piece partially phases.   I guess the interaction is good because without it that southern system is likely squashed but it introduces possible temperature problems if the track isnt perfect given the prolonged southerly flow as the upper level trough approaches.  

So...what would we need to see to get a "perfect" track?...HP in a particular place? Timing? (Sounds like a rollercoaster week ahead if we're talking about that kind of evolution!)

Just now, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

*flag* False start, Beethoven, two post penalty, repeat report of model run

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z CMC has the Dec 8-10 storm... but its too warm.  But its there and the track looks decent anyway

Seems like it has a more wonky evolution altogether there, lol

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s still a nice vort pass. I wouldn’t discount it yet at all.

Yeah it feels like one of those things that'll pop back up at the last minute...perhaps we only see it in the 3 day range (or less) if it's gonna do something?

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well the 5th looks dead on the GFS.  So....,

Still wondering if it might sneak up on us somehow...lol

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since you’re new, let me provide the friendly advice to post this type of thing in the banter thread.

Was it really that bad, though? I think it was a nice "keep an eye on it" article/blog that didn't go too crazy.

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

“The Euro only makes small adjustments from run to run.”

Perhaps that rule applies more to within 7 days as opposed to day 8+?...

29 minutes ago, yoda said:

This is probably more realistic than TT snowmap... this is the IWM snowmap... white/blue shading is 3" line... light pink is 6" line... yellow is 12" zone... orange to the dark red is 18"+

Forgive me, but...why do we even start talking about totals and snow maps for something in the day 8+ range? I mean...I know this is the medium/long range thread but...just seems way premature...

Just now, frd said:

Seems what you are saying follows this progression nicely :

 

 

 

Okay I'm gonna need somebody in here to be an HM translator...I don't understand about 80% of his tweets, lol

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Latest edition of the EPS weeklies- biggest takeaway is the AK trough retros back towards the Aleutians latter third of Dec. -EPO for beginning of Jan. Fwiw of course.

I just have a feeling this warm period may be a bit overdone on the ensembles and will be pretty short lived. We shall see.

Wasn't didn't they overdo it for Thanksgiving too? Lol (until we got closer to it, that is)

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we need to move forward 5 days in our lives. The 10 day to 5 day wait is the worst

Yes it is...it is a psychological battle of model swings and trying not to get too invested either direction knowing it's not set in stone. But again...I blame the last two winters for this, lol (especially when somebody say "northern stream"...although as @Bob Chill said, in this case that has potential to either help or hurt...making this chase a little more maddening, lol)

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes, but would you WAGE it?

Nothing in this thread is coming out the right way today...lol

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

hahahaha i think that would be even worse. 

234hr panel looks amazingly wet and moist and... 

*gasp* MOTHER!!!! What kind of example are you setting for us? 

I stepped away from this forum for 40 minutes and this is what I come back to, hahahaha

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

terrible model lol....in one run when from a Midwest Monster to a southern slider smh

It's playing like a sports athlete way past their prime and running on fumes...lol

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was curious about the "debate" going on and she pops up everywhere is you search modoki nino. And it's the same post over and over. She is playing word games.  Using one definition when others are using another then implying they don't know what their talking about. I hate that crap. 

I'll say this...we don't want the nino to continue to shift east. That's not a good thing. But every nino event expands to cover the basin at its peak. Often modoki then contract back west. Sometimes they don't. If this continue to evolve east that wouldn't be as favorable to us. But it still wouldn't make this a classic east based nino or as problematic as the typical strong east based ninos like 83,98, and 2016 to our temps. 

As always--thank you for bringing some clarity to this!

P.S. Is it shifting east currently?

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This relates to the nino discussion. No idea who beccalynch4 on twitter is but she seems to be the source of 90% of the "it's not a modoki" talk and from her posts she doesn't seem to have any idea what she is talking about. I posted a retort to as many of her posts as I could but she is flooding twitter with repetitive crap in every thread about the nino status. Not sure what her agenda is but she obviously has one. 

It was actually her tweets that prompted my question yesterday, lol Yeah I'm not sure what her angle is...I mean I asked her point blank whether she was a snow lover or a snow loather...she said "neither" and that she was tired of hype forecasting, basically--But, if that's the case, she goes about it in a rather obnoxious way...bent on "proving hypers wrong", and not much info in between (for example: a few months ago she was claiming there wasn't gonna be any el Niño and that it was gonna fizzle...lol)