Maestrobjwa

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Right on cue Euro throws us a bone inside 7 days no less . The tracking never stops 

Like clockwork, lol

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow.  If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat.  

When location adjustment ain't an option...adjustment in mindset/psychology is the only other option. Ya don't even have to have 100% of the happiness depend on it...it can dampen anything even if 50% of your happiness depends on it. To those who have fuller lives, it's probably a bit easier than those whose lives may not be as full of other things to focus on. Then snow (or the potential of it) becomes something to look forward to (even if the potential is wildly inconsistent)...even the ambiance snow. So I get it...(I swear I've been wanting to setup a snow lover psychology thread...lol)

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What is Dr. No doing?????

Man!

(and it had to show it at Day 7 too, lol)

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Game

Set

Match

Thanks for rubbing it in...

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call 

Dead?

Neither, Reap!! (I have enough discomfort with the reaper iconography that I don't do the panic room much, lol)

On 1/27/2020 at 8:45 AM, Mrs.J said:

I over the past year after dealing with daily migraines and anxiety/depression have decided to live day by day. I have taken a new look at weather and have stopped looking at anything past 3 days. Some may say I am sticking my head in the sand with all the information we have out there 10-12 days out, but it along with finally having my migraines under control and understanding that there are things I do not have control over has made this year so much better. I have learned to be happy with surprises. So the lack of snow this year has not bothered me at all. 

I envy the mental position you were able to get with this...(and I can empathize with the anxiety/depression--I struggle with that too). Living day by day is indeed important...yet in this weather hobby, here were are trying to live 7-12 days in the future, lol I'm trying not to be depressed about not having snow...but it's a challenge for whatever reason.

Winters like this are tough on the psyche...but a part of me is saying that life is way too short to be depressed over weather the way I have been this year and years past. But yet....here we are. Ain't nothin' worse than being in a good mood, but then remembering that snow may not come again for another 11-12 months barring a fluke...and it just kinda sucks the life outta ya. Makes it like...there isn't anything to look forward to in January and February if there's no snow.

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 not this Redneck lol

 

I got 60 days left of legit tracking.  It could start as early as Saturday evening when the ns energy swings through...it could touch off some snow flurries or a ss 

In all seriousness hanging it up on 1/31 is pure silliness. 

Why? All the best met minds have pretty much thrown in the towel. LR no hint of anything minus a fluke (all we can hope for)

14 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS continues to be brutal

Yeah...next week's Wed-Fri rain is...ouch, lol

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are way more factors involved than just enso and solar. 

So then what are the other theories for that year, then? Certainly something happened that had never happened in a nina before (on record) or since...

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Most of the -NAO periods were displaced after the minimum. Minimums happened in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008. With the exception of 1996 the periods of extreme blocking cane AFRER minimums. 1977-80. 1987-88. 2010-11.  Perhaps 1996 wasn’t as solar related as we thought.  Maybe the blocking in 1998 which we forget because it didn’t accompany any snow was in response to the 1996 minimum.  Either way the stronger correlation is after minimum not before and it’s not and every year 100% correlation.  If we don’t get a period of blocking in the next few years then I would say WTF  

 

Ya think so?? I mean...what other explanation for 1995-96 could there be? Ain't no way a la nina does that without help from some anomalous force, lol

So the GFS basically has chilly rain on us from next Wed to Sat--I mean you talk about rubbing our noses in it!

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

No, it won't but that doesn't change how I feel.  I have the exact same gnawing existential dread linked to climate change that Maestrobjwa seems to describe.  I wish I could consciously chose to not care, but I can't.  I am not made that way.

I'm not trying to "convert" you (not that you could be converted anyway).  Just expressing my feelings in a safe space with other people who love cold and snow.

Man I hear you--I wish I could stop caring about it too. It's like, of all the things in life, you know there are way worse things to be upset about, and yet...for whatever reason, a total lack of snow can get to us.

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3.  What if your fear is right. What if we did flip and it’s never going to snow here much anymore?  Will getting upset every 6 hours when the gfs doesn’t show snow change anything or make it any better?

It won't...and it's it's not so much getting upset every 6 hours, per se...just seeing the repeated fails and such. But again, I don't know how to just file this away and not care. I hope you're right about this and that this doesn't represent some radical change in our snow climo.

5 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

January 2006

Of course we got some payment for that the next month with a footer, so...repeat? *grasps at snow straws*

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

People are really driving themselves crazy looking at each run with expectations. I think I’m less frustrated right now because I got the disappointment out of the way a month ago. Back when I made the now infamous “winters over” post I was depressed about it. Not really, but in a this sucks a wasted winter sense.  And I dealt with it. Then moved on. Now I don’t expect anything but suck. Every major global pattern driver is a train wreck. I watch just in case a fluke happens or a pattern change comes but I don’t expect anything to work out. So when it doesn’t I’m not distraught. 

See I have trouble turning it off that easily...I can give myself the lowest expectations in the world...but it doesn't make it any easier when things don't work out (and then I come on here and am reminded about just how bad it is, lol).

Adding to that...is my overall fear that this being our new normal. With the effects of any climate change still unknown...I am genuinely concerned (not to mention some mysterious whatever preventing us from having negative anything during the winter months) What we've been seeing is pretty much all we've seen for two winters...and with analogs being useless, it doesn't seem like anybody knows WHY the last two years have looked the way the have out in the Pacific and elsewhere.

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The day 8/11 analog packages show what were up against. Only one significant snow event in all the analogs. Feb 67 which was one of the weirdest fluky storms of all the KU storms. So yea that could always happen but in general it’s not a winning look. 

Of course everything happened in the 60s to make it snow...lol

I mean, I'm not sure where the debate is...it has been kind of bad. I guess the debate has been about just HOW bad (i.e. this period vs 1988-1992 or 1970-1977

But really...I just wanna know why some of us are this way. I guess speaking for myself, I'm not at a point in life yet where I can easily put my focus elsewhere for the same (or greater) level of happiness...so during DJF snow becomes that thing. And whether expectations are high or low, I am still depressed when it doesn't come (and downright upset when we just miss). Snow=something exciting to look forward to. So when it doesn't come (and moving somewhere else or traveling for snow ain't in the cards atm), it kinda darkens the days a bit.

And yet, for all of us, we somehow find other things during non-winter months, so that disappointment doesn't even come up. 

Just now, Weather Will said:

12z EPS snow probs are bad thru Day 9....I will post Oz EPS in am.  Not worth posting anything else until EURO on board.

So then why did you post this?

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The op euro is doing what the 18z GFS yesterday (to a lesser extent) did.  That wave in the PAC is actually displacing the TPV off the pole and seriously impacting the HL pattern.  That would work.  But the problem is the vast majority of guidance is trending away from that.  But I suppose it is far enough out...and coming during a period where this is "some" mjo phase 2 forcing, that MAYBE we get a temporary TPV disruption.  Perhaps I am discounting that possibility too much.  If so that would set up a more than "needs crazy good luck" period.  I still doubt it would last long but we take what we can get.  

But when talking about one threat...lasting just long enough would be all we'd need, lol At this point, I ain't even gonna waste time thinking about anything favorable setting up for longer than a few days...And since we seem to be in this pattern of getting a storm every weekend, if we can get one, just ONE of those weekends with a tiny window, maybe we can try our luck.

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Weather isn't that simple. It's like the stock market. Endless possibilities and chaos rule but we have "tools to make sense out of it" so we try... and try... and try. The real fun starts when we're panicking because a Nina is building and then 95-96 walks in the door again and suddenly Nina's are AWESOME... until the next one. 

Nah one nina coming in and doing that doesn't make Nina's awesome--especially given the highly anomalous set of circumstances that led to that one. No nina before that one or since has ever done anything remotely close...so logic says: Nina's=snow chances practically over before winter starts, lol

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON supports this run ^^ but I'm sure the GFS will come along and draw people into thinking there is a chance with raging ++AO and ++NAO. Next winter can only be better, cant be worse right? I mean, seriously we have hit rock bottom right? I think we all need a group hug....or group therapy. Either will suffice.

I hope not...I guess the only way it can be worse is if we draw a bad enso state (that is, la nina or a super nino). And it's a shame...I had a little more hope for next week...but now the models are trying to show cutter. If they were to lock into this solution, that would be yet another kick in the nads (and we're still crawling from the last one, lol)

@frd You actually counted how many time the ICON and CMC failed? Hahaha Impressive

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

C'mon man, show some dignity!  This place is rated PG-13 at the worst!  (Oh, and love it when you talk so dirty about the models like that!  You can grab 'em by the vorticity, and they let you do it, because you're a snow weenie!) 

Man the ice under your feet lacks depth at the moment.. 

See, I am trying to hold back the gloom and doom...but as my brain often does, it worries about disaster scenarios in the future. My biggest worry is that, in the event we don't produce this year, we are unlucky enough to get a la nina again next winter. See, we always role dice on the ENSO state...but landing on a la nina would all but certainly guarantee a 5th consecutive year of futility. I mean literally not worth tracking anything during a la nina. (I know some of you don't count the last two years as futile...but for warning level events? Absolutely. Personally, I have yet to crack 5" since the 2016 blizzard). I am hoping this second neutral/weak nino we're in can give us something in case that happens...be it February or early March.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Wasn’t a fluke. The forecasts that relied on sst heavily had optimism. So did the sst based guidance. In November and early Dec before the jet strengthens those factors could dominate. We had the epo ridge we expected with the north pac sst. But the seasonal guidance was correctly picking up on an unfavorable walker cell structure to disrupt the pv and a raging +AO and they were right. As soon as the PV went crazy late Dec it was game over.  The reason we could have a chance again in March is the same reason we did I’m early season. As the jet weakens again maybe the PV grip releases. I’m skeptical but maybe. 

Oh that dang Walker cell structure...I don't fully understand what it is, but...didn't something about that screw us over last winter too?