Maestrobjwa

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

I know how you feel...it’s why I did this.  But I agree on NH. If I move someday that’s where we have in mind. 

In other news got some face shots on the last run. Found a stash in the Moran Face woods of the new Teton lift that was still untouched. 

You're fortunate to be able to travel for snow...

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why the 20th? Kinda random. Pattern persistence would suggest it's over now(or 2 weeks ago). Otherwise, we are typically in the game through mid March.

Well, just for history's sake (best snows usually stop after the 20th--with very little accumulating snows between then and the end of the month)...and also ya never know if we could thread the needle/fluke into something before then. Forget March, I'd say...

Welp...there's one to fall in line with the Euro...I think this may be the last shot, sadly. (I'll still wait until the 20th, though...just in case)

I'll consider jumping out of this threat if the rest of guidance converges on a cutter tomorrow...It's a shame. Saw the suppressed looks early and thought we'd have something a little better to work with...this is probably our only window. Probably nothing else after that (unless we get any chance the following we get any more tiny windows before the 20th). BWI would finish tied for lowest snowfall, I believe...(1.8") hope we can get something worth an inch or two...

14 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow 

 

I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?!

Heck no...if we won't be able to pull if off now...hard to imagine March would be any different! (not to mention...I hate tracking in March--Daylight Savings Time makes evening model watching a pain!)

Just now, Bob Chill said:

@Ji cmc is good. Keeps mid level winds northerly and pushes back against sw flow. Nice press behind as well. If everything starts moving that way it will drag me back in. 

So do you think this has potential to trend positively, or should we write it off still? (I'm a bit confused...I thought that better timing of the waves would produce a better result)

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m always optimistic that we will win one of these and glad you are still posting about the possibilities, but it feels like we are always so close lately. 35 and rain is just a few degrees off of a blockbuster. This week’s huge rain while Texas snowed was really bad. It’s been a truly frustrating winter (for a few years!). Regardless, thank you for continuing to highlight the ways we  might be able to score. 

But how close have we ever actually been this year, though?...Weren't the 35 and rain scenarios almost always the result of trying to make something out of a shallow/rotten airmass that wasn't deep enough to hold? (And having no cold air nearby?) I could be oversimplifying this, though...

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at mid level winds on approach. Cold is shallow and sw flow is running right in line with the upper level ridge in front of the SW. The "cold" is total weak sauce. The real cold and arctic front is up by the Canadian border. As the shortwave approaches the sw flow keeps getting stronger.

Weak cold and sw flow + ridge = good luck here

Ah I gotcha...Now on the runs where it snowed (like 6z) what was the difference?

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This one is not for us.  It would take a major change to be in the game at this point.  The cold can’t hold.  See where we are in 15 days the buy mulch 

But the cold did hold...just a bit too far to the north this time. That high was up there throughout the storm. I'm not convinced it's a "major" change that we need (all winter we've been trying to will storms to hold onto cold air in a stale air mass with no cold anywhere close. This time...it's close)

Edit: I see it ain't as ideal as I thought. But regardless...still 5+ days out...

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

High to the North and we get rained on?

All the more reason not to be convinced this is the final outcome...lol

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

GFS late next week looks like yesterday. Frickin atmospheric memory...

That's not what this is...lol if that were the case, there wouldn't be a High to the north at all! (now think about it...when have we even had that this year?)

Mostly rain verbatim on the GFS, but to my eyes...folks, that's not that far from being something better.

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like the GFS is doing just this lol.

Not sure what you're looking at...

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Ralph and his snow porn. 

 

Have we? At 5+ days I am not so sure I would count on that. Don't know how often I have seen a good setup inside 3 days go to crap because the models all the sudden produced a piece of NS energy to screw things up.

Man I'm still traumatized by early March 2018...that stupid GL low is burned into my memory...left us with nothin' but a windstorm...ack! (although I gotta wonder if something like that is more likely in Nina's due to being NS dominant...never trust a nina, lol)

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Very similar to 6z GFS and 0z Canadian. 

Was about to say the same thing. I'm curious about the EURO...you'd think there were no separation between the NW and SW at all...yet the rest of guidance has shown it in different forms. Gonna be interesting to see what it does today (for better or worse, lol)

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont see the NS feature getting out front or the ss feature slowing. More confluence over the NE is a benefit tho. I guess we grasp at any positive we can find.

So you see we still have jumping around...and I don't believe we've seen this kind of setup all season long (heck, we ain't been able to get a dang High to the north all season). And if we are talking about nailing down the timing between two waves? Yeah no...what we see so far is not locked in to be the final result (and the models still need time to figure it out)

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And in the morning no less. Very, very impressive event even by normal severe season standards. 

Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it?

4 tornados...in one February day. Wow! (can't believe I'm posting in a severe thread in February, lol) Now...shall the old folklore about thunder and snow ring true this time? Stay tuned! 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Here @Ji.....somehow the Great VD Storm on the CMC manages to snow with the 540 line N and W 

So, what was that you were saying about model consensus?  Like I said, we're gonna have to be patient with this one. (Heck, already it's different for the digital hounds...we ain't been able to buy a digital flake inside 7 days like this all year, lol)

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.

Like @Chris78 said...the cold air to the north is something we haven't had in a setup all winter. This time around it's not a lack of cold air available...now what the models have to figure out is the timing. If you think about our other "threats" this season...there was always a lack of cold air to tap into. This time...we do.

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

It doesn’t matter. No cold air. No high to the north. 

And yet it was there  two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like 12z started a trend to lose that nice nosing HP to the N of the low. 18z continued the trend. Now the cold high moves in behind the system instead at 0z.

Yeah, the models got this one locked in real good...lol Gonna be a wild tracking weekend/week!

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fact is we don't really have a single piece of guidance providing a significant snow event for the area. Even the ens members are backing off. If we had support for this on guidance rather than us trying to will a SECS out of a needle in a haystack, I would agree with you. Just doesnt appear to be working out right now. Could change but I would prefer more model support. Did you notice we've all but lost any suppressed looks? That is generally telling. Still time but imo this is setting up as another fail.

Going by showtime's post earlier...if timing is the issue right now, I'm not sure the looks we see now we can just assume to be verbatim. I'd say give it till Tuesday...

Just now, Ji said:

Potential is still there but timing is so off right now

Exactly...would much rather have to deal with out of whack timing at this range than, well, what we've had all winter, lol

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just says to me that there’s no way for us to have any clear picture at this point.

I think the picture is crystal clear

In people's minds, perhaps...but in reality, it ain't--not yet.