Maestrobjwa

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I think they get in on coastal banding . 

Baltimore/

Rd 1 -- 4-6"

Rd 2 -- 4-6"

Yeah I don't know...if the trend doesn't go any further north with the transfer, then maybe...but if this is something that just trends worse and worse...not sure how we see much of anything from the banding other than an inch or two.

Yeah I'm starting to wonder about the 4-6" estimate...how do we get that much from the thump? Seems like a scenario where we struggle to get 4, but...we'll see.

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I personally think Baltimore is inline for a decent hit . I'm thinking 8-12" for the city 

How do we get that without the CCB though?

That being said...I swear if my yard gets trolled and fails to reach the 5" mark I'm gonna throw something, lol I mean C'MON...warning level criteria: does it have to be that elusive???? Jan. 2019 trolled me with a measure of 4.8"...so no warming criteria. I'd hate to see this one do it too. Now hopefully we'll have some opportunities in February (looks promising), so there is that.

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This. We are getting at least 4-6 tomorrow. All of us. Just enjoy it while it falls. 

Yeah this is what's best...I think we are going through the acceptance phase of not getting the ccb (I mean I know the possibility isn't completely gone, but I'd rather not look to it anymore). If we focus too much on that we'll miss the 4-6" falling right outside the window. That can still be enjoyed...

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In fairness (dunno until the qpf comes out) I don’t think the rgem is bad it’s just the trend. Big step back from last 2 runs. 

Do globals still matter a ton when it's this close? Mesos would pick up better on any trends, right?

Thankfully we have the thump...although I'm a little unclear on how much comes with that: is that an area-wide 4-6" still?

Just now, jayyy said:

Just told my parents who are located near the Mario cuomo bridge in NY to get ready for a big dog. 

I wouldn't say that so definitively yet...

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Of course you're gonna troll with those emoticons now...

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

To be honest I got scared just looking at these within 15 minutes of the next euro lol

And that is the reason for my disdain of them, lol

2 minutes ago, baltimoreguy said:

What does Deep Thunder show?

Cranky on twitters called it Deep Blunder...lol

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Anybody else hate these two emojis 

Not a huge fan of the axe head, but I absolutely can't stand the second one, lol

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

You can't have one without the other.

Thought that the weaker WAA meant better coastal? That was my understanding from what Bob and a couple others were saying

Just now, Interstate said:

I would gladly have the WAA drying up as it gets to me if we get the backend that the RGEM forecasted. 

I'd be tempted to take that trade-off too!

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

its the only model showing non snow tomorrow at 00z...throw it out. GFS shouldnt be used for short range

Not to mention it has been terrible with this threat the entire time, lol

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I just thought of that as well. It's the 11 year cycle of epic winters!

Let's hope this winter can earn that epic title  (or at least a rating of great or fantanstic!)

Just now, jayyy said:

That’s how it goes. Stronger primary that hangs onto its energy longer = worse for coastal and floods our layers with warm air. Medium sized primary dying a nice death as it hits e KY/ OH to a strong coastal is the key - then #tuckbabytuck

So we either get Humpty Thumpty or Justin Tucker....if we can only have one I think I'll go with Tucker 

Now if we end up with an entire winter of -AO/-NAO...I mean it's gotta be the solar minimum, right? We haven't had practically wall-to-wall -AO/-NAO since 2009/10...which, oh btw, was also a year after the solar minimum? Lol If February indeed works out well, I'll be even more convinced!

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Lost a degree in the last 30 min. This is when I wish we had earlier sunsets. 
 

37.5/16

We do...just not during prime climo, lol

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. 

I see...Well the good news is that at least, barring a complete catastrophe, we can score on at least one end in case the coastal fails...so the thump is the cushion!

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

GFS has the low farther west pretty close to Ocean City midday Monday.

I find this inverse relationship interesting...every run that has a weaker thump has a better coastal result...stronger thump, worse coastal, lol

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

3 inch thump on the GFS. Not nearly as nice as the NAM. 

Now let's see if that translates to a better CCB, lol

32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm usually not that into the whole absurd digital snow thing...but in this case I've gotta save this image: A snow map with a 35" bullseye over Baltimore City is hilariously epic!! Hahaha That's legendary right there!

@Bob Chill I'm actually don't 100% know the most likely outcome for my yard...lol I mean I'm assuming I'm in a pretty decent spot for the CCB...maybe being right on the fringe of said plastering, perhaps? Has the bay ever played a role in the moisture for this kind of setup?

Just now, H2O said:

It's fine I suppose.  We look to mix but if its for the greater good of everyone else then that's what has to happen like it does all other storms we mix and others rip fatties.  A shift a little more S would be nice to see or some better front end.  We know what happens when the CCB sets up over the...wait for it....usual areas.  That sinking air dies off and anyone outside the deform is looking at grey skies.

 

My top end has been 8"  If I get 5" that's more than what's I've had TOTAL the last 3 years.

Ah so you didn't get in on the Jan 2019 snowfall either? I know DC got a foot but fringed north, lol