Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looks like a wacky solution to me. Who knows 

Yeah does it ever really happen as depicted there? Lol

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You need to host a zoom mental heath meeting in here STAT

No seriously that is needed in the worst possible way, lol

@North Balti Zen I completely get it...as you said, Baltimore hasn't gotten a verified warning in 5 years--I'm also frustrated because of that. Being a tad on edge is totally understandable...my personal theory is that we don't get a warning event unless we get a bigger punch (which is why I'm focused more on the potential the models are possibly hinting at Day 6-8...hope things progress!)

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too. 

Or...

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Wait what happened to Thursday? Are we already out of the game? Just checking in after doing some work.

There's a separate thread

Edit: ninja'd

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Is it a good thing when it gets confusing keeping up with all the different threat threads?

I would say yes! 

Hey what's that cooking in the south by Saturday/Sunday...

Just now, Ger said:

This is it. The rest of these events wont  work out for DC proper. Kinda looks like the January 19 event. Our Miller A blockbuster event is probably a march hail mary type thing

Yo what? Lol

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cmc has some kind of heavy precip next Sunday with Temps around 19 lol. Showed 60s last night's run

Yeah it's all Ravens purple...lol

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

144 Eps looks interesting for sure ...and its after the winter storm Wed-fri 

 

I've had my eyes on that time period...why? Solid cold air...precipitation appears to be nearby...and it would be PD/VD weekend  Haven't had that combo in awhile...will be interesting to see if this develops!

Just now, CAPE said:

It suppose it would be disappointing, but then again, Ninas in the MA tend do that, HL blocking or not.

Question: What was the last nina to have this kind of blocking?

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? 

Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly? 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this...Overall pattern can look great, but there's still the "chaos" element...the discreet details that simply cannot be seen so easily until we get closer to an event. That's probably why they say "potential" and not "yeah this exact scenario is 100% likely to happen!" Lol As @Bob Chill said last week...the supercomputers are still a ways away from being able to identify specifics from long range. Perhaps from range you could point out a thing here or there that may make certain details (be it positive or negative) more or less likely to happen, but...that may be the extent of it. The hardest part of this hobby to accept us the "chaos" or "random" part of the smaller details that can determine outcomes! (Which is why the things sniffed out early are so satisfying, lol Would love to get one of those again!)

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's crunch time. Hemispheric pattern is exactly what we talk about ad nauseam every winter while the pattern typically sucks. It's a nina and I get that but it's also absolute prime climo for a big coastal. I'm at like 12 or 13" on the year. If we got a couple 6" storms I would hit climo. But it would not be a memorable winter at all. Better than I was thinking back in Nov. Still run of the mill blah overall tho

Agree with you both...I don't think wanting the big dog is unreasonable right now. We've waited quite awhile to get this -AO/-NAO pattern--AND get it in prime climo. Now we finally have it...I do hope we can cash in! (and dang it we even have cold and precip nearby for VD/PD weekend to boot! Can a window get any better? C'mon, lol)

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

It's feels like it's been weeks and weeks of "potential, 8 days away, real cold finally" ect since Christmas with nothing but a 3 day pixie dust slop job out of it. Today was ridiculous smh. Anyway.. back to the shadows.

Not quite...it hasn't been "weeks and weeks"...remember that cold air was an issue last month. It wasn't until last week we finally started to get legit cold. What you may be thinking of is the conversation about the awesome -AO/-NAO regime we've been in. Discreet threats didn't start popping up until a little over a week ago, did they not?

3 hours ago, frd said:

@WinterWxLuvr

 

I believe this is a new threat . 

Beyond this time period, might be a miller A in the works. 

 

This would be an Almanac storm 

12 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Probably true, but the signals keep popping up over and over the last month or so. Seems like only a matter of time before one clicks for MOST of the sub. 

I'm inclined to agree

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This ones not happening for eastern HoCo and Baltimore city. Just stuck between meso bands to our east and west. Frustrating. If it was colder we probably still would have added up 3” or so. But going to end with 0.5” unless this last hour or two drastically changes.

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

5 minutes ago, frd said:

OMG

 

 

Oh have we learned nothing about these snow maps? They do more harm than good, I'm telling ya...at least until maybe 48 hours away. 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. 

Oh dear...a predictable elevation battle again? Might have to look past this one for that reason alone, lol

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

It’s not even advisory worthy here 

Yeah it's disappointing, but I'm trying not to let it get me down TOO much...but it's a bit difficult. Was hoping we'd get an inch or two (never did trust the WSW). But that's okay...perhaps we have more chances coming up (hopefully). Coping skills necessary for days like today, lol

Just now, Ji said:

Loudoun ftw boys

I don't wanna hear you complaining this week, then, lol

Good morning...Well Winter, Baltimore's 5 year-long winter storm warning drought doesn't end today either (this is barely an advisory, lol). But hopefully with the window(s) of opportunity coming up, we will. 5" minimum bar set for each event the rest of the winter...we oughta be due! 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Same with the CMC.  Ugly 0z suite tonight

Yeah let's hope things improve...because going through the week with just rain would be kinda frustrating. Cold air is so close by...you'd think we could get something!

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

That was my point. Just felt like they could have held off a bit before going to warnings. Especially being basically a 4 hour Sunday morning event 

Well, since 5" is the benchmark, as long as that was still a possibility, they probably had to go ahead and issue it

So I guess they had to issue the full WSW because of how things looked as of 18z yesterday? Wonder if they downgrade it to an advisory this evening...