Maestrobjwa

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yes... but its only just over 5 days away lol... none of this 10 day crap we always saw this winter

Yeah but even so...does it have any other support?

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Always the GFS...lol

Figures when Turgeon has his best season ever with the Terps...then this happens! Bad luck, misfortune, whatever ya wanna call it...that has really got to suck!

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but they include like a year before and 2 after in that so it could be the year after next. But the fact the NAO is due to flip base states is one thing to hold out hope on. But there are more negatives than positives in the always murky long range crystal ball. But honestly that’s normal. Our base state is suck. 

Are you sure about that? Unless I'm looking at it wrong, the benefits usually happened either the winter of the minimum (i.e if the minimum was like October and the winter that followed was good--like the 1995 minimum) or the following winter (which is what happened with the 2008 minimum) That's why I was thinking this winter would count as one and perhaps whatever lag effect there is we would see next winter.

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup there it is just in time to be just too late. 

Eh, at this point it's whatever...I'm waiting for the summer when we can start getting ENSO clues, lol

I'll have to play a bit of a fool to go against your 5-10" prediction...but since we've never gone through a solar minimum without profiting with at least an average winter...I'll go with history and hope it continues, lol

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Colder further south with the paltry amount of precip for HH.  I’m just pointing it out. Early morning snow tv not off the table.  

Early morning? Which means it would not be any TV at all...lol

Just now, BristowWx said:

My concern is no one commented on HH 138...cmon folks...it’s still March 

I was actually just about to say something about that, lol Man I'm gonna be picky and hope we can get .2 of an inch that just to save this winter from being a one incher at BWI...lol

37 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

My concern this year is insects, particularly the stinging variety.  And I have lots of tree work on our property that I need to do.  As a neighbor of mine who's in his 80s tells me, it keeps you young.  He burns about 10 cords/year heating his place but now his son who is an arborist helps a lot.  His pile was up to 30+ cords last fall and it doesn't look like he's put much of a dent in that.  I wonder why! LOL  I don't mind the warmer temps if it's not gonna snow TBH.  We have Diesel (backup power+heat), solar, and electric (BGE) providing NM service here.  Plus a pellet stove which I usually put a handful of tons through, this year has been the lightest indeed!  I just wish we had a few zero degree lows in Jan.  Does a good job of knocking down those damnable insects.

Not to be rude...and I know tracking season is on it's last week or two...but shouldn't these kind of things be discussed in one of the other threads?

Just now, Chris78 said:

They needed this game badly. Played well. Hopefully its the start of a deep run in the tourney

 

 

Forgive me, but the last 5 (or how ever many years Turgeon has been here) years have me quite cynical when it comes to the Terps and the playoffs. It feels like every dang year all they do is look good regular season...then choke! The team this year looks like the best Turgeon has ever had...but I am highly suspect of his ability to coach a team to a championship.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks foe your concern for my career but I just got a promotion so my superiors think I’m doing something right. 

People who actually pay attention probably have noticed there are some specific times of the day I don’t post much.  But other than the rather small amount of time when I am delivering direct instruction or helping someone...and unless I suck at designing that lesson that should be limited since the best lessons are student centered,  or several meetings a week, 90% of what I do is time flexible.  

They don’t care how/when I design a lesson, print copies, grade work, call parents, fill out IEP reports, write curriculum, complete attendance reports and the various other mostly independent tasks I get paid for. 

My summer position is less flexible but you don’t see me posting as much then. Not that you actually care but since you’ve wasted the boards time with this trope numerous times already I guess it’s worth cutting it off before you make 30 more useless posts on this topic. 

Congrats on the promotion! (are you still at Carver?) And seriously, ain't none of us has any business judging what anybody else is doing outside of what's posted here. That was completely unnecessary, smh

10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Anyone else check the GFS at 5:30 only to abruptly realize that it’s DST and we have to wait an hour longer to learn about our failures?

And this is why tracking anything past the first week of March can SUCK!!

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18z fantasy range AGAIN...

I'd like to know what the point of having a weather model go out to 384 hrs is...I mean seriously, why? And for crying out loud why can't they just fix the dang cold bias on the GFS?

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the 12z Gefs and there is a signal for a possible sw getting south of  us and even cutting off centered on day 7 . Not a big signal but it's there. 

Again with the GEFS...lol The few times the GFS or GEFS shows a morsel of hope the Euro/Eps comes in and says "Nope!"

Looking over BWI records...this would only be the fourth time on record that we've failed to crack the 2 inch mark. If we fail to get anymore this winter, then two of those times would have happened within the last 10 years, smh (the other time was 1972-73 where we only got 1.2 inches)

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...Lucy has put the football down again.

"Again"? I'm not sure there have been many footballs put down in the first place, lol I guess the only remotely close "football" was a few weeks ago...and even that was lower percentage at the start with no EURO support. And I'm almost fully expecting you to say eps says no in a couple hours (but I hope you spare us the maps, lol...why ya torture yourself and us with those is beyond me...WHY?)

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance right now is split between neutral to Nina. 

Hopefully another neutral + minimum could be better...If you wanna look at history, I'd lean more towards average snowfall...all the minimum years hit that or better within a year...But of course, climate...so who knows.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

Yeah you don't know my brain, lol Suckage is suckage...living through it is not easier. Just like we knew the +AO would suck...doesn't make it any better. Coming on here, having all the negative emotion reinforced...hearing forecasts of mild records everywhere...how the heck does expecting less make that better? Heck, I dread this for next year, and it will still suck if it happens. I don't think the "abandon hope" option works for everybody.

For example:

I will never trust a nina again and will always expect the worst. But that doesn't mean that all the crap that usually comes with a nina (close misses, perpetual snowhole, beaches clobbered, n + e cashing in) still isn't gonna be depressing. Low expectations don't equal things being pleasant.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?)

And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

Same...

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why worry? Expect total suckage. Anything better is an over performer.

Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out. 

For me, the only "torture" of 55 degree temps with blocking in April is more a torture of regret and frustration--because you are reminded of how you DIDN'T get that blocking and/or -NAO when you needed it in winter. Call it...the torture of weather unfairness, lol

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Our chances of an above avg snow year are still good in a nino.  But since 2000 EVERYTHING else has been crap.  We have only had one good snowfall year since 2000 in a non nino year.  The other 12 were all some variation of garbage.  That didn't used to be the case.  Enso neutral years used to produce above avg snowfall years much more frequently in the past.  Not so anymore.  On top of that years with a crappy pattern are trending downwards in snowfall results likely due to warming eliminating some of the marginal fluke snowfalls that would get a year like 1989 or 1992 or 2002 to 5" instead of 1" or nothing. 

If we are now at the point where neutral ensos are no longer 50/50 and more likely to be bad than good, and we can only score in ninos...that's a sad reality. Seeing as we may only get like what...1-2 ninos per decade? That would mean we'd only hit above average 2 out of 10 years. Man I hope that's not the reality we're looking at...(and why does it seem like ninas happen more times in a decade than ninos?)

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Euro looking diggy with the ns so far...

Gettin' diggy with it?

40 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

from last night's EPS, but worth it

Which day was that? Lol

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

If we're talking about historical trends...there does not appear to be one that offers hope for a better season than that: the solar minimum.

I looked through BWI records and compared them with the estimated years that the minimum "bottomed out". There hasn't been a time where one of the two years surrounding the minimum didn't give us a decent (at least average) winter. And from what I can see...all but one time actually had above average snow (and the exception--the minimum of the 40s, still had a winter that logged 18 inches). So it doesn't appear that we've ever gone without the minimum giving us some kind of benefit...so we shall see.