Maestrobjwa

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Oh no . . . The Inner Core is still intact!

Cuba used LAND ATTACK!

It's not very effective...

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

It’s going to be there in two days. It’s now or too late.

 

It’s better to be safe to avoid a tragedy.

I was gonna say...unlike some of the other long-trackers...not like they have a ton of time to wait!

10 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I love Windspeed's input and we go back a long time, but I just realized he uses the acronym "PV" quite a bit.

Now see I thought the acronym was for polar vortex...but I assumed it meant something else here, lol

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what does diabetic heating mean or did you mispell that word?

Too much sugar in the golf, obviously 

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Any of the mets in here think the Mid Atlantic has a chance for action, or are we done for the year?

I don't know much about tropical, but...I can't imagine there's a definitive answer for that right now. Just gotta watch and wait!

1 hour ago, MoistWx said:

Yeah... can someone else take one for the team on this one? I can throw in some boudin and crawfish to sweeten the deal lol. Pretty sure the city just came by recently to do their "last" round of debris pickup for Laura/Delta.

Of course this is just a model run, but my goodness...to hit that same area again would just be cruel. Like why that particular spot?? I mean it's like there's a giant hurricane magnet at Port Charles, smh

26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Relax.  You're already fretting about this winter and it's August.  Yes, it'll probably suck.  But not because the climate has suddenly warmed so much that snow is no longer possible; it'll probably suck because every year there is a 75% chance that it will.

Interestingly enough...I'm not fretting so much about this winter in particular (kinda already written it off since it's a nina, lol)...It's the winters AFTER it that I'm more worried about. I just hope the 75% doesn't turn into 80 or 85% or worse...I can live with 75% because that's what we've kinda known--that translates to every 3-4 winters! 

2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Maybe it's a reaction to your negative thought waves. (Or maybe not....I dunno )

That "deep snow is no longer possible" line comes around every cycle here in Balto. After living through the snowy 1960's, we said it in the 70s...and so on and on....  

OTOH, Nature seems to have a way of laughing at the weatherman and suddenly proving him wrong; so carry on I guess.

(No harm meant...I enjoy reading your posts)

Tbh I do hope that's all it is...what worries me is the warming. The PAC jet has never been this warm this many years in a row, correct? What if that's the one factor (or if there are others) that's different than the snowless periods of the past? We don't know that...

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you felt my post was targeted at your post, then the answer to your question would seem self evident.

Please, let the “it’s never gonna snow again stuff go”. I promise you it will. And it will snow big again. You are trying to evaluate winter in time scales that are too small. As you go through your life as many of us have, you will learn that there are gonna be periods that stink. Then there are gonna be good periods. Unless you live at a latitude above about 42-44 you might as well get used to it.

Im not trying to be harsh. I’m trying to help. Hopefully you will see it that way.

 

And again...how do we know this period that stinks isn't different from the other ones over the years? We got warming and maybe a climate we've never had in recorded history. Can we really know this isn't a permanent state? I've lived through our sucky periods...but being just 30, none of them have been this long (at least for "bigger" snow). We'd go 3-4 years...then we'd see a bigger event again. I'm used to that....this? Not so much. Particularly...given the unprecedented background state we might be in.

We're working on 7 years (in Baltimore, anyway). And it's a Nina so it might end up going another year. Even the 70s corrected themselves after 7 years...but what if today is different: we got this PAC jet and Hadley cells and other crap I keep hearing about the last 5-6 winters. Can we really know this time isn't different, again, given the climate? 

Given that...why is it illogical for me to wonder if this period of suck is different from the rest? I'm just going off of what some of you and other Mets have been saying about the "maybes" of a changing climate!!!

@psuhoffman was the one indicating that things might be different last winter (the "It can't even get cold enough with THIS setup?? C'mon!" posts). Unless I misread it...hearing that and Hadely and the PAC...is what kinda made me start giving up on bigger snows because the background state might be different from before...

I'd like to hear an alternative scenario about how this isn't a concern...but as PSU said, it is chaos and we really can't know for sure.

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Geez. 

What?

8 hours ago, mattie g said:

This right here. I honestly don't think there's much to be said beyond this except that there's a good argument to be made that the new, warmer background state will play havoc with our understanding of the effects of those drivers in our backyards.

And if that's the case...it's hard to imagine there being any good changes. Like...unless the warming suddenly changes a previously unproductive ENSO state like a Nina to something that can work, OR if the warming enhances a nino's positive effects on snow (kinda hard to believe), how can this go anyway but bad? (Seriously I'd like to know a scenario that could still work) And if it gets to the point where our climo becomes like the south...I'm not sure what the point of following things is. If the best we can manage is what we've gotten 2 of the last 3 years...and that even somewhat deep snow is no longer possible...why follow? I mean I get that some do it for the fun of it (but if you love snow I don't know how it doesn't make ya miserable, lol) But snow is what brought me to this in the first place, actually...8

I started a bit of a 5-phases process over this potential already. As I shoveled the few inches of snow we got back once back in Feb, I was sad lamenting that this may be as good as it gets now. I'm gonna miss having the occasional chance of a winter storm warning. Yes, scenery snows have their value (my appreciation grows looking at this reality)...but I'm gonna miss getting even 6-10 inches...as well as the less often (but still used to be every few years) 12"+. There's no way to dress it up. 

Guess we gotta wait and see...but I'm preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

Being a geology major and on an airplane during this as I flew to Puerto Rico for work only to miss Irene after was a real kick in the rocks (pun intended).  I've had some horrible luck as I missed the '09-10 winter living in Alabama (the only year I didn't live "here").

Oof...makes my lament look tame! (Insert "That's rough buddy" meme)

These showers from Henri?

To this day I'm still kinda ticked I missed out on it...I mean JUST missed! A 4 minute drive to the bank...and it happened--but I couldn't feel it because I was driving, smh. Missed out on that memory! May not have something like that again...

I remember being quite disappointed because I didn't feel it since I was driving...(still kinda am...rare event! That was really something else!)

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some pretty smart people in this field. If there was reliable predictability to seasonal they would have found it. 

That is very true! A simple yet enlightening point...

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

2016-17 and 2017-18 were pretty good for eastern areas. Median to average snowfall, and above avg snowfall both years I believe for the immediate MA coast. One was a weak Nina I think.

That sounds about right. Yeah one of those years was the bomb cyclone, lol In Ninas, everything is too far east or northeast!

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let me tack onto this. Let’s look at moderate ninas.

84-85 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Helluva winter in swva, don’t know about here

95-96 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Don’t even need to say anything here

10-11 …. Moderate Nina. Decent winter and missed by the slimmest of margins from being memorable.

20-22 …. Moderate Nina. Good winter by most people’s standards.

Have there been times when a weak to moderate Nina was not good? Of course. Have ther been times when a moderate Nino was not good. Yes there have been.

I just think this whole premise is whacked.

 

 

Wait hang on...95-96 was the only above median snowfall in the bunch. The rest didn't work well here. (and what's 20-22? We ain't there yet, lol)

84-85 10.3 inches

10-11 14.4 inches

(We lucked up with the 2010-11 late January storm...but missed Boxing day in the most nina way possible). More El niños than la ninas have worked. Some neutrals have worked. But the least likely enso state for decent snowfall has been la nina. 95-96 I think we can agree is an anomaly.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He seems to spend a lot of time trying to find patterns to explain the chaos. The best we can do with seasonal is perhaps pick out some drivers that can perhaps increase the odds slightly towards certain characteristics. Besides that you have to surrender to the chaos and roll with it. Or you will go crazy Imo. 

I do that because trying to guess what happens next and finding patterns in things to try to guess what happens is just in my nature. Not so easily satisfied just not knowing or having stuff have no rhyme or reason when it comes to desirable outcomes.

Now I'm slowly coming around to the reality of chaos in weather, however...but I still would like to know if we see warning level snow again. Because if that is no longer possible I won't pay much attention to any seasonal anything or track any winter on this board. But we don't know yet...and I don't like that we do not know, lol It's like...I'd rather know now (and bemoan and vent out the disappointment over not seeing it again), instead of having to have wait to find out later.

But again.....we simply can't know...yet

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When we get about 200% of normal in a Nina it’s gonna fry the maestros circuits

C'mon...you can't tell me it wouldn't fry your circuits and everybody else's circuits too! I'd like to know who here legit wouldn't be surprised at that!

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know you have been paying close attention the last several winters. We manage to suck at snow regardless of ENSO state or strength. But historically, above all, root for a -AO. That gives the best chance for colder/snowier for DC area. Didn't quite work out last winter- other stuff can overwhelm, and it may not be the indicator it once was going forward. But we just cant know yet.

Disagree on one point of that--we still have not had the one ENSO state that has payed off the most: moderate nino. Think about it...we haven't had one since 2009-10! 2016 was strong and gave us out last blizzard, but outside of that? Haven't seen it! I'd like to see if that ENSO state will still work today.

31 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The Pac is going to be garbage? Oh, tell me something else new.

So tell me simply: if the pac will be bad every year from now on...would it only be during El niños that we can snow? Trying to get an idea of what setup we'd need (I'm sure whatever it is won't come as often as we'd like...but I'm still curious)

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That Pac sst is hot poo 

Hasn't it been that way since 2016? Lol

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

Ha...so Henri VIII (named storm) threatens New England? Haha...

Pouring once again here! But I think I see a few peaks of sun too

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a possible training event setting up over Baltimore City into Towson and then east to White Marsh. I gotta give credit to LWX, they've been money on these flash flood watches of late.

Now what exactly is a training event? (Google yielded irrelevant results, lol)