Maestrobjwa

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Watching the models trend but still stay SE us like twisting a loose piece of skin off of your cuticle it's painful but you keep twisting because it kind of hurts but kinda feels good. Then it rips off and it just ****ing hurts

I'm ashamed I related to this as much we I did, lol

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

RIP Betty White

Ah dang it...so sorry to hear that. So close to 100!!

Ya know with John Madden and Harry Reid passing earlier this week...I was just asking who the third person was gonna be (because in some years that's how it goes)...and here we are. She will be missed!

22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nina = southern slider/Beach blizzard. Save yourselves 

Yep...Especially in early January. Really strange how that seems to be a favored time period for this in ninas. Bomb cyclone happened then...lol And even the one anomalous 1996 hit was also in early January...just that that crazy...whatever it was made it work for us. But otherwise...you can almost bet on a nina beach snow in early January, lol

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

That's because of the snowfall prior to that night

Ah I see (didn't see that part...or I just intentionally ignored it to not spark any dreams, lol)

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

has DCA at 16/17 degrees 06z SAT lol (00z EURO)

Hey if we can't get much else I'll take some bitter cold...it has been quite awhile! (two years, I believe!)

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My father passed away a few hours ago. Thank you all for your kind words and support the last few weeks.

I am so, so sorry, friend...will pray for you and your family.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted???

I'm content with it looking good...even if other things line up to don't help us this time. It's better to see it can still relax sometimes instead of being non-stop the way it has been!

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats OCMD  

We oughta make a show called "That's So Nina" Lol

Early January: check

Southeast MD jack: check

All is functioning predictably!

Hey yo!! THE Uccellini cited the WDI (we're due index)...I feel validated, lol It is herby canon! 

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Correct.  There is absolutely no reason to be excited.

Low pressure system with a lot of moisture coming cleanly from the south in a nina...yeah that always works out, lol

43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Basically a pray for timing winter. We do so well in those. Merry Christmas all. Snow is great. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of life. Enjoy the time with your family everyone. 

If it were possible, I'd repost this on top of every page. I think we forget this like...a lot!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But there are variables as you all pointed out. I suspect maestro is correct that it would require more than a weak Nino to shake up the incredibly dominant pac base state since 2016.

Now I'm still curious about 2016. Now is it just coincidence that things have been screwy (especially with the pac) since that super niño...or did it like break something? Lolol

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Hopefully people remember though that many ninos, even ones that end up good like 1958, 1966, and 1987 or decent like 2004-5 or 2015-16 are pretty mild until mid January. I’m ok with the fact our December snow climo sucks but that seems to bother some a lot. 

And even the legendary 2009-10 winter had mild, mid-50s Christmas with rain that washed the snow away...lol Now what about temperatures in December during ninas? I had thought the front end of ninas tended colder...but I'm guessing not so much?

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

2022-23 gonna be rockin! Hopefully I'll be home for it by then  

Heck yeah  Hey last month somebody dared me to start the thread...now I'm even more tempted, lol

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the SSW kind of messed things up that year, but I know what you mean.

Oh yeah? What happened with that?

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odds are weak el nino next year,  congrats New England, moderate, congrats east coast.

Don't know about the first part...I think everybody may need a moderate. Already saw weak kinda fail 2018-19 because of the pac (losing hope quickly for improvement there!)...I'd like to see what happens with a stronger one.

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

We can start a GoFundMe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection

Interesting...lol

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Sadly, the venerable Reaper, @WxWatcher007, has retired and the Panic Room is no more. A relic of history.  A savior of despairing snow weenie souls from a bygone era...

Yeah the reaper iconography always kept me out of that thread...lol

But honestly what good did the thread do, though? Certainly didn't help anybody process anything. We're like...facing the loss of something here. The snowstorms we used to be able to track occasionally. It's a change...and accepting a new reality.

I'm mad at the weather, really. It doesn't owe me a thing, but I'm still mad at it, lol At one time it gave some joy during the winter...but now it's just depression. I take no pleasure in warm winter days nor in cold rain. We have 9-10 other months of the year for that. But now we're forced to accept we cannot get bigger snow anymore (or at least not as often--if you can call our previous 3-4 above average winters a decade often, lol)

It will be not that much different than Southern VA or NC, imo.

But this is the new reality we MIGHT be facing...and I for one am having a hard time accepting it and not being ticked off about it whenever I think about it. It literally ruins the mood sometimes, smh

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

All it would take is some minor geoengineering.  If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.

If that were a real thing I'd be tempted to invest, lol

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When have I said it’s not a big concern?  I’ll make these statements.
 

1) If this pac base remains it will be really hard to get consistent snow in this area. The last 5 years are very typical of what we should expect in this pac regime. It can snow but it will be slim pickings and storms will be few and far between. 

2) I can’t say for sure how much is cyclical and how much is “you know what”. There are some logical possibilities on how warming has made this worse. I’ve mentioned the changes in the typical SST profile in the IO and western PAC favoring convection in hostile locations for cold here AND the expansion of the pac Hadley cell as possible warming related contributing factors.  But I can’t prove anything. 
 

3) should I say this everyday 5 times?  Scream it’s never going to snow again and cry?  Or do what I do and simply get over it and look for whatever opportunities we can manage despite the crappy base state that seems stuck. 

Looking up articles about that dang Hadley Cell I'm growing to despise...I guess this "poleward expansion" isn't something that just...reverses itself?

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE @Ji this is why I think there is more to this than Nina. The closest example of what we’re dealing with now was actually 2019 which was a Nino!  

Truth is this has been a consistent pac issue for 5 years through 2 neutral, 1 Nino and 2 Nina’s. This year it’s just even more out of control!  

I notice your exclamation points=worry on your end...lol And you're trying your best not to saw the w (warming) word...

Pac issue is a legit concern for future snow...5 years? Tell me why we shouldn't be concerned when we've seen no improvement, or why it's illogical to say that this could be a bigger problem. I'm telling ya...I think a mod-strong El Niño might be that last experiment to see if that's the one ENSO that can overcome this persistent problem. If that doesn't work...ruh-roh.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2015. 2016 was bad for a different reason though. We got the typical Nino north pac trough but in typical super Nino style it was too strong and encroached on the west coast too much and this flooded the Continent with mild pac puke much of that winter. 
 

2017 to now the dominant pac base state has been a central pacific ridge which is bad. Our best way to offset that would be the HL but right now the pac is sooooo bad, literally the worst EVER coming up…that’s it’s just a no win no matter what else is in our favor. 

So it's been bad for 5 consecutive years...hm...would like to see if that's happened before...

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pacific was REALLY good and the AO wasn’t a train wreck that would work. But the NAO would work if the pac wasn’t flaming poop also. It’s all a balancing act. Fact is it the AO is raging positive or the pac is hot poo we probably aren’t snowing in either scenario. Even when we scored in 2014 @ 2015 absent a great Atlantic it wasn’t garbage. There was often ridging over the top onto the AO domain in 2014. 2015 we had a displaced PV suppressing on the Atlantic side.  We can’t score when either is a hot mess on wheels. We need one to be good and the other not to be a floating flaming dumpster fire. 

How long has it been since the Pacific was actually good/not too bad?

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol. You might be 10-4 we’re it not for two decisions that I call dumb. Not mildly dumb. 100% dumb. You have a good team, maybe the best kicker in history yet you decide “hey, let’s roll the dice and gamble the whole game in one play”. Dumb. He can try and justify it any way he wants … but in reality he can’t. It’s ego.

Unfair assessment. Literally on the sideline with the players talking to them about it...that's not ego. Harbs is the opposite of ego--which is one of the many reasons why the players love him. Now if you accuse him of anything it's not trusting the secondary against Ben or Rodgers. No guarantee you get the ball back on the coin toss. You think the stoppin' Rodgers again? 

I think against the Steelers it was about not having Humphrey--I don't think we stop Ben in OT. Second time was a hit questionable...but I question the play design more than the decision to go for 2.

5 minutes ago, TSG said:

The high latitudes are warming much faster than the equator so I think it's more likely to disrupt what we know as the base state than to give us more regular Nino conditions.

How do the high latitudes affect whether the ENSO is nina or Nino? Or is it more about how high latitude warming affects the atmospheric response?

I remember folks saying the 2018-19 weak Niño never "coupled" to the atmosphere. Is that an example of what you're referring to?