Maestrobjwa

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that's legit...not some bootleg transient ridge...straight -NAO...no chaser.   And it really starts to build in the short range not some unicorn long range fantasy.  

So...is it too early start talking about the lag effect of last year's solar minimum being a possible factor this year? Or perhaps we should give it a little time to make SURE it's gonna happen? Lol

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol Ji always complains no matter what.  The forecast could be for 1 to 2 feet of snow and he would complain about getting 15 inches because the mixing line got too close or Bob Smith had 18 inches 4 miles to his NW.

He even complains about the models taking away his snow... like if the Euro gave him 7 inches on the 00z run and then nothing at 12z... he would post about losing his 7 inches of snow.

But it's how Ji is... so ya gotta roll with it lol

I just wanna know why man, lolol I'm starting to wonder if even he knows why...

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem with a ton of snow all around us lol but nothing for us

Frustrating

Why are you frustrated by digital snow? (But then you complain when there isn't any...what gives, dude?)

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would have agreed a month ago. But the AO/NAO seem to want to play nice at times so far. This upcoming pattern is one that would probably work ok if it repeats in January or February.  It could work out now but it had a better chance the deeper into winter we get. 

Ha...that's gonna be funny...I think if they were to be favorable for a change this winter...I mean we gotta look at the solar minimum effect again, don't we? (Especially for the -NAO that has been absent since, well...the effect of the LAST solar minimum)

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were your expectations? 

I find that lower expectations don't completely erase disappointment with an outcome. Last winter's futility still sucked even when it was clear that it was a no-go. However...more level-headed expectations do help fight off wild emotional swings. With this being a nina...I'm trying to just take it as it comes with that in mind (yeah I'm still hopin' for somethin' deep down, lol)

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna end up with what, 190,000 plus cases today?  That is a huge number since Mondays are one of the lower days.

Dang...so now sub 200k days become the LOW days? Mercy...How fast this has accelerated is dizzying...to think 100k used to be a bad day!

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem gets us snow to rain

Op run analysis 10 days out, eh? Lol

Ha...both almanacs call for a storm on those dates...lol Yeah I know, I know...but whenever the medium-long range models potential on dates that coincide with the Almanacs (in this case both of them), I can't resist mentioning it 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's all about expectations.  Right now I would be ecstatic if we got a repeat of 2018 or 2019 and a lot of people were complaining all through those years.  

Oh no doubt...I think snow envy drives some of that complaining in those kind of years (at least for me anyway, lol Yet when we are snow-starved like we are now, you'd take even some 1-3" "scenery" snow! Anything is better than a complete shutout like last year...

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice pics. With the Nina we knew a good winter was almost off the table. The signs the NAM state might not be as hostile this year leaves me hopeful we will have opportunities and this might be a more typical not great but not god awful Nina either. 

Hope you're right! Because the fact that we had to draw a nina card after last year's disaster kinda stings...hope we can fluke into something!

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

I hate storms with no high.   

2/15/2010    Fail

Was this after the twin blizzards?

31 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Last year st this time we had come out of cold but useless November and the writing was on the wall that after 12/10 looked miserable. It was even worse than that so it’s great to have snow potential discussions moving forward 

Yeah ya gotta hope that maybe it's an opposite effect: mild November colder/snowier December? 

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

2013/14 is interesting because if you ignore the central equatorial pacific (raging Nina right now) the rest of the global SST anomaly patterns are very similar.  

2013

Now

Huh...wonder what 2013-14 would've looked like with a nina? Lol

Now not reaching to this modeling specifically, but in general...in ninas, what has to happen to make a southern and/or east-northeast miss less likely?

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

They definitely need to win the turnover battle, not kill themselves with penalties, and get a few breaks.

Definitely. (especially the O-line with the penalties...the patchwork makes me a bit nervous for those procedural ones!) For tunrovers... the good news is...at least we still have most of our corner backs and safeties!

16 hours ago, CAPE said:

Dobbins, Ingram, and Brandon Williams eligible to play. Williams probably won't though with the ankle.

The RG3 to Dez connection!

They will probably still lose, but it may be competitive if the D and running game can play complimentary football.

If it is competitive there is always a chance. I'm not counting them out! This is the kind of thing that can spark a team...you just never know. We shall see!

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

Will this get @bobchill back,?

Yeah @Bob Chill where are ya? Did you finally get tired of us last winter? Lol We miss your special brand of snow gut analysis! 

Ha...of course very early, but...if, IF things were to work out with a -NAO and/or -AO and/or blocking for a change (...wouldn't that be enough to put the solar min back in the conversation? Again, obviously a big IF...but IF it were to happen what other explanation would there be? Lol (especially if it were to happen after going this long without, and happen in a nina on top of that?)

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Interesting 

 

 

Well now...gotta that possible connection!  

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Should we start looking at the weeklies to worry about when it’ll break down? 

For our mental health we'd be better off just taking it as it goes...lol

1 minute ago, Ji said:

miller B on the euro....congrats New England

Now that would be more typical nina behavior, no?

Just now, Ji said:

no you are right

 

So I'm confused then as to why this looks more like a super nino December or something, lol Is there an anomaly?

Now I thought that at least front end of ninas were usually colder...not always the case?

On 11/28/2020 at 1:21 PM, Wentzadelphia said:

No one wants it to snow more than me. Trust me. I’ve storm chased snowstorms where I couldn’t afford it but went anyway. Hell I lost a job because of 2015 NE event . Ji will tell you if he recalls, but the 2001 bust sent me into a depression at 14 years old. I’m sick in the head when it comes to snow. 

Meant to respond yesterday: Dude, this right here? You are certainly not alone. I have had to weather similar psychological reactions to snow fails. I have been wanting to start a thread about the whole psychology of this...(tried but didn't get too many responses, lol). I'm not sure why we react the way we do, or how to dig ourselves out of the ditch (or stop ourselves from getting in there) when it happens. 

Shoot, I still just get a tad perturbed wben thinking about our more recent fails (like 12/8/18 or the miss in March of that year)...and it kinda piles on top of whatever isn't going right snow-wise. Ya tell yourself that this is such a tiny part of life and not worth the emotional energy...yet ya find yourself slipping, lol

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Seems the game may be in some jeopardy now. It's sad to say, but from a competitive standpoint another positive test today may work to their advantage. Not a chance in hell they beat the Steelers if the game is played Tuesday. If it is postponed, it will likely be played week 18 when the Ravens will be potentially fully healthy from all the key injuries they are are dealing with now, outside of covid.

But it sounds like the league is still bent on having the game Tuesday. If they do it...it might take a miracle for us to win.