Maestrobjwa

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Sounds like you’re trying to convince yourself. 

Lol...convince myself of what, exactly?

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Stop panicking lol.

This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.

That's what I mean. The "here" and "there" might be getting less frequent. Not so much panicking as weak resignation...5 years and counting since even sniffing over 5 inches. It did not used to be this way. I've looked at the winter from 1980 through now. I'm not sure we've ever gone this long without an area-wide footer coming in some point--at least not since the 70s. Really we can only manage 3-4 inches maximum in a storm in the corridor...whereas before..."now and then" was every 3-4 years. It has been almost 6. 

I'm gonna miss WSWs, truly....but median is just 2 inchers and 3 inchers...and that would be easier to accept IF we were still able to get a great winter every 3-4 years like we used to. That way it wouldn't be like now where it's like..."dang, it's been 5 years!"...was never like that in my brief lifetime. My concern is what used to be 3-4 times per decade may be even less--and that's assuming things aren't so broken that it can't happen, smh.

But again...scenery snows (the 1-4 inchers)...I'm learning to appreciate those too. Last winter was more appreciation of that mixed with some sadness missing what we used to be able to get more often (which wasn't "frequent" but never 6 years apart) But...hopefully I'm wrong and we get surprised!

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think there’s any rational basis for a statement like this. Emotional maybe. There were some lame winters in the early 70’s, seemingly all through the 80’s and the early 90’s. We had decent to good winters 2 of the last 3 years so I don’t think I’ll jump on the “it’s over forever” train just yet.

I mean...a PAC jet dominated winter 3 (or is it 4?) years in a row doesn't warrant at least rational speculation? I mean it seems like we are in unknown territory here, does it not? Unless there was another time in our history where the dang PAC dominated several winters in a row? The lack of cold air source last winter despite the -AO/-NAO that typically gives us an above average winter? I don't know dude...And seeing as it's been almost 6 years since BWI saw a foot, or got too far above median, I'm really beginning to wonder. We haven't gone that long since the 70s. The 80s weren't quite like it...1983...2 footer...1987...above average. 5 year separation. We are working on 6 years...

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ruh-roh....I'll be heading up to Cecil County in a couple hours...hope we can beat the storms!

34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Comically, the latest HRRR throws a band back at DC as Elsa passes by.

It's like we're talking about it modeling a Miller B...lol

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I confess to being a snow watcher no longer as hung up on enso state as I used to be for snow around here. 

Yeah it kinda sucks that we can't rely on that as much...because now it's more difficult to know what we need to work to get warning level snow in the corridor again!

21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

One thing that became clear to me over the past couple of winters is that Enso means absolutely nothing for our area anymore. You guys simply got unlucky to the east last year. It was a respectable winter west of the fall line. 

So if we can't look at enso...ya wonder how even somewhat accurate winter forecasting even a month out can be, lol (not to mention analogs)

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I would guess a Pac jet on steroids blasting into N. America would likely be antithetical to clippers.

I guess the thing to watch now...is if this feature is permanent. Not sure how many winters in a row we need to see it before we make that determination, though...because if it's becomes permanent...are analogs kinda out the window? Lol

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. This area has the dullest weather.

Eh...I wouldn't say the dullest. Imo we are just in the middle enough to make things interesting, lol But when it comes to snow...I think it's just gonna be a tempering down of expectations from pre-2017...a lot of great hits kinda spoiled us!

57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Depends on your definition of good snow. Again, the period 2012-2015 had plenty of good snow and cold.

I thought you moved to Florida? Never say never I guess but I don’t think there is any setup that will produce there lol

Ohhhh no you must be thinking of somebody else--not in a million years would a move down there, lol

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Considering it is directly upstream, it always is a major factor. Wrt last winter, pretty easy to just say a Nina will typically not be kind to the MA with more NS dominance and weak or non existent STJ. A N shifting/stronger Pac jet, if that ends up being more of a fixture in winter going forward, may tend to modify ENSO impacts(especially weak events) and other indices that are historically correlated to cold/snow in the DC area, such as the AO phase. 

Dang...that scenario makes ya go *gulp*...Because that might mean, and correct me if I'm being overly simplistic, that we need a legit, moderate-strong El Niño to get good snow (and we only get those what...once maybe twice a decade?)

OR...is there another scenario where such pac modification would actually help?

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

And we haven't been able to shake that since 2016 have we?

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea so enso wont be driving winter. We just need some blocking like last year and well see what happens

But the blocking last year didn't do any good...did it?

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just expect a disaster and be happy with what you get. 

Listen we may have to learn to be content with a few inches. I'm not sure we can get bigger snow anymore, tbh. Last winter...some good scenery snow that was beautiful to look at. If we can't get bigger snows I think I can take that as a consolation prize (I guess, lol)

44 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Ozone. Smells like chlorine.

Right after a bad storm.

32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Kinda like Chlorine, but also somewhat Fruity? Kind of a weird smell that I can’t describe well.

Wow! Had no idea ozone was something you could actually smell! Is it only after tropical systems?

44 minutes ago, FLweather said:

That convection over the Orlando area crazy atm. Bad lightening and heavy rain and gusty.

It's lighting up. But I was sitting on the back porch. Almost looked like 830-9  pm.

And I smelled ozone. Been along time since I smelled ozone.

Come again? Lol

5 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Went to take a sunset picture and got photobombed by one of our neighborhood foxes (bottom right).

Now see had you not mentioned it I probably wouldn't have noticed the fox, lol

Whoa hey what's goin' on here? Where am I? Wow! And badges? Can I transfer over all my Pokémon ones? 

29 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Supposedly this was the tornado in Milford, DE earlier.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Are you kidding? Looks like in the middle of Kansas or something!

3 hours ago, H2O said:

We have Elsa.  Que all the memes

Just waking up--one of the first headlines I see...and now the song is back in my head, lolol (ya know I actually like the song from a musical perspective!)

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, we had two consecutive el nino events ending the season before last.

Wait, really? Those must've been rip-offs...lol I seem to remember the 2018-19 ending up being weak and never acting like a Nino. And what happened in 2019-20? I guess that was off set from the raging dragon ++++++++AO...lol But when was the last legit moderate one since 2016?

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree.

Is this kinda longer than usual to go between El Ninos?

So on a whim I bought Radarscope during tonight's storminess...lol Not the juiciest storm, but even so...have always wanted to have a nicer radar to follow!

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Dark as nightfall in Balt City. 

Indeed

19 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Lime sized hail? When did they start using fruits?!

 

Just saw whitecaps on Deep Creek Lake via bridge CHART cam!  Definitely looks windy.

And lime sized hail is obviously followed by coconut...