Maestrobjwa

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where?

I was about to suggest the same thing. Getting a bit jumbled in here (but it's awesome to have that problem! )

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha. What a fun track. I ended up with 22” in DC.

Not to mention the easiest tracking ever...rock-steady agreement for like 7-8 days. Like...when does that ever happen? Lol It was like...okay, it's gonna snow, it's gonna snow big...get your shovels out--no doubts with that one!

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon is a decent hit Monday .

Howard county lollie bullseye 5.5 inches 

A bit of atmospheric memory on this one? Lol (thinking about how the southern regions got more rain lollies the last couple of months). Of course this snow greedy Baltimorian wants things to inch just a little further north! 

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Is it showing 5 now?  

No idea...I haven't looked much at modeled snowfall!

42 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Guys I'm cancelling the rest of winter because of a HH GFS run showing 5 inches instead of 10 inches 7 days out

I didn't even know it was showing 10 inches earlier, lol

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  Just one more tick south and we're all in the game.  As it stands now, I get a bit of snow.  This far out in December, not sure what more can be asked

Hey Beethoven...ya know this would end up your 250th birthday right?  (December 16th is the estimated day!)

Is anybody in contact with @Bob Chill, though? I woulda thought he'd pop in...

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The problem many states are facing is there is no support from the federal government to help these businesses making it almost impossible to do shutdowns 

And that's the part of this I don't understand...why hasn't there been more federal support for these small businesses? And how does our response in this area measure against other developed countries supporting their small businesses?

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Happy hour almost delivered. But a lakes low screws it up. We get a perfect track huge rainstorm. 
 

Unfortunately that’s not that uncommon for December.  But that crap better not continue in Jan/Feb 

Now in such a modeled scenario (thankfully still out in fantasy land), what does the GL low do? Steal the cold air, or?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

If you get just enough blocking it sets off a chain reaction that reconfigured a Nina look into a workable one. What I found was we actually do ok in a Nina if we have a cooperative AO/NAO. Problem is that’s not all that common. Nina tropical forcing tends to favor a +NAM state more often then not. But in cases where we do get help up top it can snow in a Nina. 

Two questions:

1) What other examples outside of 1995-96 where we did okay in a nina because of what you just mentioned?

2) Speaking of 95/96...was some record -AO/-NAO the reason why it worked?

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn't automatically attribute anything to just one factor without a lot more research and data.  It could be the solar minimum.  Or maybe its something else and its just a coincidence.  Or maybe the solar minimum is just a part of the equation and there are other factors contributing also.  There are way too many variables to just pin it on one thing.  If it was that easy forecasting wouldn't be so difficult.  

Yeah I can understand that perspective...on the other hand, IF the -NAO is true, I find it mighty strange how we haven't had winter one for almost a decade (basically since the 2009-10 with only maybe one other case)...and then all of the sudden we get one after a minimum.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that's legit...not some bootleg transient ridge...straight -NAO...no chaser.   And it really starts to build in the short range not some unicorn long range fantasy.  

So...is it too early start talking about the lag effect of last year's solar minimum being a possible factor this year? Or perhaps we should give it a little time to make SURE it's gonna happen? Lol

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol Ji always complains no matter what.  The forecast could be for 1 to 2 feet of snow and he would complain about getting 15 inches because the mixing line got too close or Bob Smith had 18 inches 4 miles to his NW.

He even complains about the models taking away his snow... like if the Euro gave him 7 inches on the 00z run and then nothing at 12z... he would post about losing his 7 inches of snow.

But it's how Ji is... so ya gotta roll with it lol

I just wanna know why man, lolol I'm starting to wonder if even he knows why...

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem with a ton of snow all around us lol but nothing for us

Frustrating

Why are you frustrated by digital snow? (But then you complain when there isn't any...what gives, dude?)

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would have agreed a month ago. But the AO/NAO seem to want to play nice at times so far. This upcoming pattern is one that would probably work ok if it repeats in January or February.  It could work out now but it had a better chance the deeper into winter we get. 

Ha...that's gonna be funny...I think if they were to be favorable for a change this winter...I mean we gotta look at the solar minimum effect again, don't we? (Especially for the -NAO that has been absent since, well...the effect of the LAST solar minimum)

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were your expectations? 

I find that lower expectations don't completely erase disappointment with an outcome. Last winter's futility still sucked even when it was clear that it was a no-go. However...more level-headed expectations do help fight off wild emotional swings. With this being a nina...I'm trying to just take it as it comes with that in mind (yeah I'm still hopin' for somethin' deep down, lol)

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna end up with what, 190,000 plus cases today?  That is a huge number since Mondays are one of the lower days.

Dang...so now sub 200k days become the LOW days? Mercy...How fast this has accelerated is dizzying...to think 100k used to be a bad day!

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem gets us snow to rain

Op run analysis 10 days out, eh? Lol

Ha...both almanacs call for a storm on those dates...lol Yeah I know, I know...but whenever the medium-long range models potential on dates that coincide with the Almanacs (in this case both of them), I can't resist mentioning it 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's all about expectations.  Right now I would be ecstatic if we got a repeat of 2018 or 2019 and a lot of people were complaining all through those years.  

Oh no doubt...I think snow envy drives some of that complaining in those kind of years (at least for me anyway, lol Yet when we are snow-starved like we are now, you'd take even some 1-3" "scenery" snow! Anything is better than a complete shutout like last year...

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice pics. With the Nina we knew a good winter was almost off the table. The signs the NAM state might not be as hostile this year leaves me hopeful we will have opportunities and this might be a more typical not great but not god awful Nina either. 

Hope you're right! Because the fact that we had to draw a nina card after last year's disaster kinda stings...hope we can fluke into something!

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

I hate storms with no high.   

2/15/2010    Fail

Was this after the twin blizzards?

31 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Last year st this time we had come out of cold but useless November and the writing was on the wall that after 12/10 looked miserable. It was even worse than that so it’s great to have snow potential discussions moving forward 

Yeah ya gotta hope that maybe it's an opposite effect: mild November colder/snowier December? 

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

2013/14 is interesting because if you ignore the central equatorial pacific (raging Nina right now) the rest of the global SST anomaly patterns are very similar.  

2013

Now

Huh...wonder what 2013-14 would've looked like with a nina? Lol

Now not reaching to this modeling specifically, but in general...in ninas, what has to happen to make a southern and/or east-northeast miss less likely?