Maestrobjwa

10 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said:

So a quick question - I would think this is more of a scenic storm?  I would think that 10 inches or so over a 24-36 hour time frame would be manageable for road crews down here.  How about the winds - any latest wind maps?  Thanks for all the great insight.

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Down this way, 10 inches over any period of time will cause road issues. 

25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Firs time looking at the LR in a few days.  GEFS really honking a cold pattern with ample blocking.  Maybe we will make up for 4 w̶e̶e̶k̶s̶ years of handwringing and letdowns with a rockin Feb!

 

Fixed  And we would certainly be entering February with a bang if this weekend goes as modeled!! Seriously...this weekend producing and a rockin' February is what we need in the worst way after the past 4-5 years. That would be a heck of a way to break the warning-snow drought!

Just now, ovechkin said:

Assuming it follows a similar path, when it gets into range the NAM is bound to have a run with some fun looking insane totals. Should be entertaining at least.

Fully expecting to see a 24-30" NAMing somewhere...lol

30 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol ji "we take?"

YES YOU FCKING TAKE ITS SNOW

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

@Maestrobjwa  you should steer clear of the main during these important runs PBP. Just a suggestion. 11 years on this board and I am not within 100 miles of being good enough to be on the con during these runs. 

Wait, what are you talking about? I was...just voicing my support for the two pbp's when mappy asked just one or two to PBP. No run opinions offered...I don't do those, I just read

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Get 'em momma! 

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Again, lets have one or two do the play by play. Yoda, you got this?

I vote Yoda and WW

Just now, mappy said:

lol we dont get paid

I was about to say, lolol

Just now, catoctin wx said:

I dunno ya’ll. this doesn’t look like snow to me. I’m thinking bust




.

But ya know what...this actually depicts the euro being spot on for today when the other guidance wasn't...which gives more confidence to Sun-Tues 

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I am not mad nor do you need to apologize.  Dude, you made what I would have said.  But letting a good post like that just feeds the fire we are trying to stomp out quickly.  This job pays jack shit.  Hell it costs me.  I owe the main dude a sweet bottle of booze still after losing a bet and I'm STILL helping.  How effing dumb is that?

Now I feel kinda stupid for not knowing you guys were paid for this...lol

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

@frd has basically just said get ready for a month full of blizzards

Is he working for the Farmer's Almanac?  (I mean they actually did go a bit ape...predicting a blizzard in the middle of the month, lol)

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ICON makes the jump to the secondary off the delmarva.  Yes the process "begins" down in NC but its really just in its infancy stage and the coastal front baroclinic zone starts to amplify...it doesn't really take over as the primary circulation until at our latitude.  That is no good.  We need the Euro solution of a clean transfer to the outer banks.  That simple.  ICON solution would still be a nice front end WAA snow though.  

I do hope we can end this model stalemate today...one way or the other. What are the other late transfer models doing to make the primary go awry? Having it be too strong?

44 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

February 9-10, 2010 Miller B HECS had the primary into Ohio fwiw then a tucked coastal off Delaware 

Ah so that one tucked off of Delaware? That would explain the period freezing rain mixed in that the 19 year-old me was shamefully whining about...lol (even after all that we still got 19 inches in the city!)

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. 
 

I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here 

But yet...hasn't the seasonal trend been suppression? (especially this month, lol)

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. 

And you said suppression was the most likely fail? 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Next

 

few minutes will be big 

Mods! Psu is trying to set the forum on fire...

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 

And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already)

Edit: Psu answered my question, lol

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution. 

So I'm wondering how long it'll be until we get consensus on the coastal track...I mean the euro and gfs can't be at this stalemate too much longer!

47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

PD2 mixed far inland.  I sleeted for hours.  Would have been half a foot more 

Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely a few members that stall and dump this run 

Ha...ha...(insert toilet joke here)

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn.  Now if one of those others move, then yeah....

And it would be a bit mind- boggling if the euro or cmc would cave, wouldn't it? I mean how much of a window can we reasonably expect this divergence to continue? I woulda thought is the Euro was gonna cave we'd start seeing that today, no?

GFS doesn't know what the heck it wants to do with that low...lol Jumping all over the place! "Dance LP dance"

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday.  Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want.   I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen).  The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes.

I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.  

That was what I was looking to see as well...got the transfer...thermals we can (hopefully) ignore!

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now. 

Then it needs to get it's but in gear

Now...if everything else this month has basically gotten squashed...why not here with the more northern guidance, (possibly transfer included) possibly shifting south...this time into better position...as we get closer? I mean, shoot...January trend ftw? Lol