Maestrobjwa

58 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I bet a lot of people are pretty surprised about this storm but anytime you have a tropical anything over the gulf you got to pay attention if you life on the coast.

Particularly for the propensity to strengthen at landfall that's been the theme the last couple of years!

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Yep. Especially in the Fall. If you rank Nino 3.4 by month for "coldness", the event last year was most impressive in the Fall. October and November 2020 were both top ten cold ENSO events since 1950. The later/earlier periods were no where near that.

These are your coldest ever Novembers in Nino 3.4, using a constant baseline (CPC uses a sliding baseline) of 26.49C. Top ten sounds real strong out of 71 years right? Problem is only like 23 or 24 of the years are La Ninas. So the peak is really only slightly above the middle of the pack for a La Nina, and then it was weaker in winter Spring.

1955    -2.24
1973    -2.16
1988    -1.84
1975    -1.44
2010    -1.43
1999    -1.37
2007    -1.32
1998    -1.25
1964    -1.23
2020    -1.21

So ya wonder if this one tapers a bit for this winter?...

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Again, that was the weirdest "Pure Imagination" I've ever heard...Willy Wonka went techno (or whatever you call that genre, lol)

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2
 18AUG2021     20.5-0.1     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.9     28.6-0.2
 25AUG2021     20.6 0.0     25.0-0.0     26.5-0.3     28.5-0.3
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3

 29JUL2020     20.1-1.2     24.7-0.8     26.3-0.8     28.4-0.5
 05AUG2020     19.8-1.3     24.6-0.7     26.3-0.7     28.4-0.4
 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5
 19AUG2020     19.5-1.1     24.3-0.7     26.0-0.9     28.4-0.4
 26AUG2020     20.0-0.6     24.2-0.8     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.2
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4

For this week, +1.4C in Nino 1.2, +1.1C in Nino 3, +0.7C in Nino 3.4, and even in Nino 4 compared to 2020. Last year, conditions were solidly La Nina by now. This is not that.

Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. You have some warm water below the surface at 160W and west. The waters below the rest of Nino 3.4 are somewhat cold but not incredibly. You also have some warmth way at depth which diminishes the totality of the cold signal quite a bit.

Do you think this is a weaker nina than a year ago?

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Sweet mercy what did they do to that song? Lol (although...I hate to admit it...it does kinda work with the overall vibe)

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For all those talking about lack of good looking eyes every season: Are you not entertained???

Guess it only counts if it threatens the CONUS?...

Anybody on here do fantasy football? Looking for at least one more player in the next hour or so!

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m guessing there are no new posts on this forum since everyone is outside.  

I was about to say...the entire subforum is eerily quiet, lol

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I heard something about people being trapped in basements the other night and I just can’t wrap my head around that one. Can’t you just walk up the steps?

If the water rushing down the basement steps a la the NY subways...I'm guessing that's why.

1 hour ago, drexelkathy said:

The tornado that spun out of the remnants of Ida decimated the neighborhoods around us.  One that was either an F3 or an F4 missed our house by less than 1/2 a mile and just shredded through Mullica Hill.  Including the largest dairy farm in NJ.

That is some crazy stuff...but I'm glad your house was spared though! Mercy...

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On one hand it is a bit disappointing that we missed the tornadoes and flooding around DC but we did have the overnight supercell which was at least something. We also do have to know that this was probably the best outcome for us where we missed out on what New York got, who knows maybe we are missing events now so we can get a storm this winter. Oh well at least it feels nice outside.

I hear ya buddy...my thoughts are kinda the same...disappointed to miss the extreme weather, yet thankful to avoid damage. But yet wanting to finally get in on a major event! It has been awhile...the severe outbreak a few weeks ago was the closest thing!!

7 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Guilty on both accounts.

Relief from constipation is when the floodgates open!

It'll get ya sounding the WagnerTuba in no time  (especially with a big 32' bombarde...)

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

64F with wonderful breeze, anemometer on tower in field recording 34mph peaks.  Sounds wonderful having the windows open feeling the breeze, hearing the wind chimes.  It's like being constipated for a week and all in a sudden you hear Wagner's Ride of The Valkyries playing on an organ!

Now wait a minute, I could not let this post go by...that is a very specific musical analogy, hahaha Pray tell me the connection between constipation and Wagner on an organ! And I sense you are either a musician or a music lover! 

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Is it wrong for me to be a bit jealous? Lol (although not for the damage)

39 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Bust

Wouldn't say "bust" but rather...we missed some of the fun (from an enthusiast perspective) stuff. I'm having weather envy myself...

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

If the system was a bit slower and had a bit more negative tilt, this would've been a legit MOD risk Mid Atlantic to New England tornado outbreak. We were so close to a grand slam event.

Yes very close...I mean like I said I got mixed feelings...but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed and kinda jealous of everybody west/north/east getting a memorable event (minus the damage and casualties, that is). For some reason our part of the corridor was mostly shielded. I hope eventually we can have something to remember here again...it's been awhile. 

(Although the severe from a couple weeks ago was pretty awesome!!!)

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We might never see something like that again in our lifetime. Unreal.

I'm sorry we kinda missed it on our end of the I-95 corridor...I mean we got something but nothing too memorable aside from the Annapolis tornado

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

This is a tornado you’d see in the plains, not suburbia new jersey. My goodness 

 

Daaaaang...

Definitely the heaviest downpour since last night! Guess it's trying to go out with a bang, lol Can you imagine having this all day??

Guess this is probably the last moderate/heavy burst of rain here in the city! We've been most shielded aside from last night's burst (that I apparently slept right through). Yeah we get out of it without damage...but ya know me...woulda loved a little more weather excitement (but without injuries! )

30 minutes ago, H2O said:

After seeing some stuff others have had today I'm pretty good with saying I'm happy with what I got.  

I have mixed feelings...I mean thankful for having no damage...but I still wanted some more exciting weather though. Baltimore has been remarkably shielded for the most part. Probably 3.5" of rain around here.

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Can't attest to the wind, but honestly I was in a daze after being awakened by the lightning and thunder so maybe didn't notice.  The rain sounded very hard on the windows, and I briefly wondered if there was hail embedded in there.

Oh wow...sounds like I fell asleep 10 mins too early...slept right through it!!

14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's pathetic. We all knew for days that area was going to get pounded and was already susceptible for flooding given recent rain events.

As a whole, this event was very well forecasted. Yeah, the tornado threat around the cities didn't happen (thankfully), but to expect that kind of perfection isn't realistic and it was an almost flawless forecast.

Overall...isn't it kinda hard to get tornados in cities anyway? (buildings?)

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm sure someone in FredCo will say conditions were "unexpected" or some nonsense like that.  Always blame the forecasters.  

Ohhhh no--they ain't gonna get away with that! This has been warned repeatedly the last couple of days!!

Practice for this winter...lol It really is amazing how we kinda have a shield in big events...