Maestrobjwa

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope we don't see this creep north with each run though. IMO, by 12z tomorrow we'll probably know if we're looking at a low end warning event or if something special is coming down the pike. Having flashbacks from December.

We were just worrying about suppression 12 hrs ago...lol Like psu said, there is definitely a limit to how far north things get. That confluence is definitely there...but just weak enough to help, hopefully.

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hard to put much faith in the NAM past about 36 hours.

That's what I'm saying, lol Is it really worth parsing (pr panicking over) the details of it right now?

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sup peeps. I'm new here. How much for Rockville?

BOB!!! Good to see ya sir!! I knew it!! I said the other day that you may have been waiting for a legit threat to be on the doorstep before you popped back in...and here you are!! Lol Welcome back!!

Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event?

Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

I assume no one trusts the ICON thermals?

Not much, lol

Just now, jayyy said:

Also think part 2 is a) too uncertain and b) too far out for watches 

Agree

Just now, jayyy said:

Nice to see watches up along 95. Looks to only be through Sunday night too 

Sounds like they're treating this in two parts (which it basically is)

To help set the stage...the Winter Wind Etude by Chopin! 

5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It's already game on.  Pretty much every piece of guidance targets our region for accumulating snow, and most of them give us a warning level event.  We're now well inside of 100 hours.  Of course every piece of guidance could take a historically bad dump and we all end up smoking cirrus but that doesn't seem likely.  

I've always thought of this in two parts: WAA snowfall more certain, coastal a wild card. The only big bust scenario is to get nothing from either...and hopefully that is less likely.

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

you can click on it and see. 

I guess he meant WHY? Lol I would like to know as well

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't know but its obvious from the drastic shifts in guidance run to run and how closely those shifts correspond to the handling of that feature in New England, that its volatile and delicate.  The guidance is having a really hard time getting a handle on what that little vort is going to do and it has a great effect on our system.  

24 minutes ago, frd said:

Very true, one small feature can have dramatic effects.  

Oooof!!! That is maddening...one tiny feature with huge impacts either way! One aspect of tracking snow that will drive ya to drink if you're a drinker (thankfully I'm not, lol). Little tiny thing is like rolling the dice...the chaos element of this hobby that can't be seen until closer in. I certainly hope it can break in our favor this time!

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are 2 obvious camps emerging in the guidance... and it involves how they are handling the upstream feature in New England.  Those that are diving the vort there further southwest are suppressing the flow (NAM/Euro) and causing the trough to remain more positive with a more suppressed east solution WRT the coastal.  Then a camp that is less suppressive with that feature (GFS/PARA/ICON).    The GGEM/RGEM are kind of in between and so we see probably the ideal result for 95.  There is honestly no way to know for sure what is going to happen with that feature in New England, but it holds the key here IMO.  

So I'm wondering how long it'll be before we know what happens with that feature? Maybe not till gametime? Lol

5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Would this be a setup for possible Bay Effect or Enhanced Snow for folks in the Virginia Chesapeake Bay Region.  Only seen it happen once in a significant way and it was a similar setup maybe 20 years ago.  The storm was pulling away, Mets called for Snowshowers and locations along the bay got an additional 6 inches of of heavy snow.

Which side of the bay? Lol

Just now, Ravens94 said:

Cmc is litterally all over the place

Did this thing seriously just give the I-95 corridor 20 inches? Lol Probably the wackiest model run we've seen to date!

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

everyone happy now??

Don't know about anybody else, but...I ain't eatin' that cake until the Euro comes out and it looks better, lol

Just now, stormtracker said:

Thank God the 12z suite is pulling through...if for nothing else other than to calm the people down so I can go back to concentrating on day drinking. 

Don't drink yet...still got the Euro to get through, lol

2 minutes ago, TL97 said:

I mean honestly we'd all be a little better off if we stopped analyzing the NAM after 60 hours, it often shows bad or very good results that aren't supported and doesn't add anything.

I'd imagine the current meltdown may have been caused more by the 0z Euro...

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs.  We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted...

Yeah seriously...this is ridiculous. 12z tomorrow might be big...Can you imagine? If the euro were to tick the wrong way tomorrow...I'd imagine that throws the entire forecast off, right? And what would happen with the transfer? Unless it's the nightmare scenario of it not happening at all and the primary (or whichever it is) escaping. Let's hope we see a better trend tomorrow, because I'm telling ya...we're so close!

20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This seems like a good set of model signals with GFS very good, GEM perhaps a bit warmer solution than ideal, ECM now trending a bit suppressed, my guess is that a very large storm is likely and this divergence represents those developing signals coming into the mix -- in fact this could turn out to be a monster storm with the long interval of coastal development and signs that the center wants to set up very close to the Delaware coast. My hunch is we're looking at 20-30 inch amounts with this one. 

Good sir I hope your hunch is correct! Euro has some of us worried about a southern miss/fringe, lol But do you see that as correcting itself as we get closer?

Man if we end up smoking cirrus from this...smh I mean how does the confluence get stronger and stronger and stronger? When will it stop? When the WAA snowfall is all the way down in dang NC, and we're stuck with flurries? Smh I hope we have better corrections tomorrow.

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range. 

Man I hope the Euro shifts right. It being right about yesterday when the rest of guidance wasn't has me nervous, dude...especially with the suppressive theme of the whole month. But hopefully tomorrow brings a better shift...

Just now, stormtracker said:

Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north.  I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is

I guess I'm nervous because the euro was the only one that got yesterday's suppressed storm track right. Wondering if we start seeing the other models get more and more suppressed...maybe that's my fears talking, lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol 

But seriously though...how far south is this gonna go?? I mean one or two more ticks south and I'm even fringed, smh

Just now, ryanconway63 said:

Big Run for the Euro tonight.....unfortunately ill be asleep....  Its been locked in for 5+ runs now....wouldn't expect much change...

I'll be satisfied with no missed transfer from suppression...that's all I wanna see tonight, lol

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Columbia deathband is alive and well!!!!

Except it expanded even to Baltimore, lol Good gloppity!!