Maestrobjwa

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

144 Eps looks interesting for sure ...and its after the winter storm Wed-fri 

 

I've had my eyes on that time period...why? Solid cold air...precipitation appears to be nearby...and it would be PD/VD weekend  Haven't had that combo in awhile...will be interesting to see if this develops!

Just now, CAPE said:

It suppose it would be disappointing, but then again, Ninas in the MA tend do that, HL blocking or not.

Question: What was the last nina to have this kind of blocking?

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? 

Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly? 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this...Overall pattern can look great, but there's still the "chaos" element...the discreet details that simply cannot be seen so easily until we get closer to an event. That's probably why they say "potential" and not "yeah this exact scenario is 100% likely to happen!" Lol As @Bob Chill said last week...the supercomputers are still a ways away from being able to identify specifics from long range. Perhaps from range you could point out a thing here or there that may make certain details (be it positive or negative) more or less likely to happen, but...that may be the extent of it. The hardest part of this hobby to accept us the "chaos" or "random" part of the smaller details that can determine outcomes! (Which is why the things sniffed out early are so satisfying, lol Would love to get one of those again!)

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's crunch time. Hemispheric pattern is exactly what we talk about ad nauseam every winter while the pattern typically sucks. It's a nina and I get that but it's also absolute prime climo for a big coastal. I'm at like 12 or 13" on the year. If we got a couple 6" storms I would hit climo. But it would not be a memorable winter at all. Better than I was thinking back in Nov. Still run of the mill blah overall tho

Agree with you both...I don't think wanting the big dog is unreasonable right now. We've waited quite awhile to get this -AO/-NAO pattern--AND get it in prime climo. Now we finally have it...I do hope we can cash in! (and dang it we even have cold and precip nearby for VD/PD weekend to boot! Can a window get any better? C'mon, lol)

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

It's feels like it's been weeks and weeks of "potential, 8 days away, real cold finally" ect since Christmas with nothing but a 3 day pixie dust slop job out of it. Today was ridiculous smh. Anyway.. back to the shadows.

Not quite...it hasn't been "weeks and weeks"...remember that cold air was an issue last month. It wasn't until last week we finally started to get legit cold. What you may be thinking of is the conversation about the awesome -AO/-NAO regime we've been in. Discreet threats didn't start popping up until a little over a week ago, did they not?

3 hours ago, frd said:

@WinterWxLuvr

 

I believe this is a new threat . 

Beyond this time period, might be a miller A in the works. 

 

This would be an Almanac storm 

12 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Probably true, but the signals keep popping up over and over the last month or so. Seems like only a matter of time before one clicks for MOST of the sub. 

I'm inclined to agree

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This ones not happening for eastern HoCo and Baltimore city. Just stuck between meso bands to our east and west. Frustrating. If it was colder we probably still would have added up 3” or so. But going to end with 0.5” unless this last hour or two drastically changes.

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

5 minutes ago, frd said:

OMG

 

 

Oh have we learned nothing about these snow maps? They do more harm than good, I'm telling ya...at least until maybe 48 hours away. 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. 

Oh dear...a predictable elevation battle again? Might have to look past this one for that reason alone, lol

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

It’s not even advisory worthy here 

Yeah it's disappointing, but I'm trying not to let it get me down TOO much...but it's a bit difficult. Was hoping we'd get an inch or two (never did trust the WSW). But that's okay...perhaps we have more chances coming up (hopefully). Coping skills necessary for days like today, lol

Just now, Ji said:

Loudoun ftw boys

I don't wanna hear you complaining this week, then, lol

Good morning...Well Winter, Baltimore's 5 year-long winter storm warning drought doesn't end today either (this is barely an advisory, lol). But hopefully with the window(s) of opportunity coming up, we will. 5" minimum bar set for each event the rest of the winter...we oughta be due! 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Same with the CMC.  Ugly 0z suite tonight

Yeah let's hope things improve...because going through the week with just rain would be kinda frustrating. Cold air is so close by...you'd think we could get something!

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

That was my point. Just felt like they could have held off a bit before going to warnings. Especially being basically a 4 hour Sunday morning event 

Well, since 5" is the benchmark, as long as that was still a possibility, they probably had to go ahead and issue it

So I guess they had to issue the full WSW because of how things looked as of 18z yesterday? Wonder if they downgrade it to an advisory this evening...

Just now, Bob Chill said:

This is a storm discussion thread tho. Not weenie therapy or a coping room. Majority of lurkers come here for good analysis and sound information.  I see good and bad here as well but I'm not choosing a side and vehemently defending it cuz you know... feelings...

Agree

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand. 

If that's the case, it's lrobably an attempt to mitigate disappointment (the whole "if I don't let myself believe a positive scenario can still happen, I won't be as disappointed when it doesn't"...I know, been there, lol

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps with a healthy mean fr end  snow hit for midweek 

Maybe I'm greedy but...you'd hope we can get a chance for something more than front end the next couple weeks...I mean shoot, we're still overdue for a footer. If great blocking in Feb can't give ya that...not sure what will. I mean 3-6" events are nice, and had we not been so long with our a big snow, I'd more readily take it (but I'll still take it). But those kind of events...I'm not sure they produce more than advisories half the time (in the cities, anyway) unless they go boom. Again, nice scenery, and snow is still snow...but man I'd like a bona-fide warning or two at least. Been so long!

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

O

L

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

It does look that way, indeed.  Can't take any one deterministic outlook at face value at this range (of course!).  But there have been some wacky looking scenarios thrown out there starting about next Wednesday or so.

Yeah seriously...got all those waves and the icy scenarios and the huge slug of moisture...feels like a literal snow globe of ideas...where shall it all settle? Stay tuned, lol

Now I may not yet be the best at deciphering things on the macro level in the long range but...to my eyes, looks like a wacky week of tracking ahead, lol Buckle up! Thanks for the update @frd ...Gulf of Mexico being open for business sounds great 

1 hour ago, caviman2201 said:

Lol people rag on CWG's 1-20" boom/bust/high/medium/low confidence forecasts every day on this forum and I'm getting the business from an account that posts once a decade over my first and only jab at them. 

Yours could've merely been the straw that broke the capitol camel's back...I think what they said needed to be said.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Snow is some serious business

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/02/us/snow-shoveling-dispute-murder/index.html

Was deeply saddened to hear about this...unbelievable, smh

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Can't speak for everyone here but you and me would take a good hit off this one

I-95 special band? Heck yes