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Maestrobjwa

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Posts posted by Maestrobjwa

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    I don't look at it that way. I am way past the days of getting disappointed over things I have zero control over.

    I do like winter weather much more than long, brutally hot and humid summers, and I am considering moving elsewhere when life situations allow it. Might be pretty soon.

    But how does having zero control over it prevent disappointment, though? I don't get that...You want something to happen, it doesn't happen, disappointment. What am I missing, here? I'd love for your way of seeing it to be the cure all for all the disappointment and depression, but that hasn't done the trick...

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, mappy said:

    Was laughing at how the models have shown worse and worse outcomes for both threats this week after a promising day or two

    I do get disappointed when it doesn't snow, but I'm good at brushing it off as whatever. There are so many other things going on our world these days that missing a snowstorm isn't high enough on my list to get legit depressed over. It's just snow. 

    I also don't get invested beyond day 5, hell even sometimes beyond day 3. That helps with the disappointment when the rug is pulled within 100 hours. 

    And this part here...the discipline of not getting sucked is what I have found to be the toughest...especially inside of day 6/7. Ya see good runs (though the euro this time was never good, lol) You try to look away...and then the carrot is dangled. You tell yourself you're not gonna pay attention, not gonna pay attention...but then your mind so easily goes to it. I need a distraction, lol 

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, mappy said:

    lol -- thats is all. just laughing. 

    Are you laughing at our ridiculousness in here? Lol And I can't tell...do you still get disappointed with snow misses, or have you found a way to stay above it? (If you have, I'd love to know the secret...this stuff depresses the heck outta me sometimes)

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, stormtracker said:

    Or the Euro.

     

    1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

    I really thought one of the two would fold tonight... Guess not.

    This standoff is getting ridiculous...certainly by Monday somebody oughta be caving to somebody (when does the sw come onshore?). I hope we ain't gotta have another 48 hours of this...tell us something, lol

    Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    I’ve said my peace.  It’s getting warmer that part isn’t debatable. In the past that started ugly fights over the cause and the politics behind that.  I’m not getting into that. 

    Wasn't trying to fight. Just expressing disappointment is all

    Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    @psuhoffman Man I hope you're wrong (except about the part where this part of this is due to more transient factors, lol). But if you're right...gonna be more a bit more hurt around here. Imagining a future reality of less snow saddens me...that's gonna be tough to take...but what can ya do? I guess you just enjoy the heck out of the snow you get and don't complain, lol 

    Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    There seems to be a dominant color here....

    3AD5D44A-3166-4472-AC70-CC0F7F36CA4D.png.1c663c3e2fbbb6351f8bbb50ee710701.png

    Oh dear...we're skirting close to breaking the rules here...lol However if this is affecting our snow chances, it's gonna be a bit more difficult to avoid the discussion because of the way things have been (unless we keep mentioning it as generallyrics as possible, keeping it solely to observation related to snow)

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

    I did, or at least hoped. I'm chasing a big one. Pretty clear we are heading away from that. Precip slipping farther south, also looks like either less precip overall or the storm is just pulling away quicker.

    I understand the desire for big snow...but ya gotta try not to get sucked in by one run that shows a monster result...I try not to let my mind go to "big" until there's consistent evidence that such an outcome is firmly on the table. Otherwise you risk not enjoying what measurable snow you do get (like if you're looking 12" and we get 6"...we can still enjoy that!) I think a more reasonable bar is WSW level...that's been my bar this year--since that's been so hard to get the last few years, lol But I will admit...part of me is hoping February delivers a bigger one somehow...

    Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Not enough baroclinicity. These boundaries, even now, are lacking the potential energy they should have with a greater temperature gradient. It’s a little better now. At least the waves aren’t squashed to LA lol. But it’s still not enough to get them to amplify much given a suppressed flow. 

    Now isn't suppression more nina-like because of the tendency toward more NS activity? (I remember at one time in Jan 2018 seeing a parade of HP's coming down the middle of the country, lol

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Anomalies still happen. But almost all the snow to our south...and at our latitude lately, comes from getting lucky with an upper level feature to crash temps.  When was the last time we saw a huge expanse or cold powder to the northeast of a low coming across the US?  If the coverage of snowfall overall in a larger scale decreases the odds of any one spot getting snow goes down.   

    Define "lately"...Just this year, or did you see something between 2016 and now? Again I'll mention the "bomb cyclone"...lol

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, psuhoffman said:

    Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. 

    How do we know this isn't unique to just this season, though? You mentioned yesterday about the PV pushing cold to the other side of the globe and the fall torch...how do we know that's not what's doing this? I mean...It still snowed in the 2018-19 winter, didn't it? How do we get snow in the south, and even the January system that year, if the overall base state is bad? And with last year's +++++++++++AO...can we even count that year? Lol Maybe I'm thinking about these things too simplistically, or maybe I'm just looking for optimism, but...I'm just wondering.

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