Maestrobjwa

17 hours ago, yoda said:

I think we'd all lose our minds if a 97-98 winter appeared.  Yes I believe it was a super El Nino... but those temps... yikes 

Are ninas usually that warm, though?

Btw today's questions were legit "how did that happen" questions. I get because of my history how they may have sounded like gloom and doom (although that was the wrong interpretation)...but I really did wanna know how the cold air got trapped on the other side of the globe...was just curious. I mean we CAN analyze what's already happened, right?

50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s not the questions you’re asking. It’s the gloomy and doom point of view you’re asking them from. When I read your posts everything seems to be the “it’ll never snow big again, just have to get used to this being the norm” type of comment. 
 

Nobody cares about the questions, or the point of view actually, but when your posting seemingly has you on the edge because of weather that might or might not happen, don’t be surprised when people jump in and try to push you off that edge. In reality, all they are doing is having fun with you.

Its only weather. And it hasn’t happened yet. But this is all I’ll say about it.

I'm not "on the edge" though. If anything I got further away from that edge after last year didn't work out. I get it...we don't know what's gonna happen yet. But I disagree that we can't speculate at what we've been seeing. I remember @psuhoffmansaying last winter essentially that "we'd better hope this doesn't become a problem" and his several posts of "How is this not cold enough???". And did climate not come up in the conversation last winter as well? I mean I'm basing a lot of this just from what I've heard from some of y'all on here!! (particularly the better minds). So like...did I misinterpret all that? Lol

BUT...on the other hand I get it...I was a lot of gloom and doom last winter. I tend to focus on the negative possibilities to prepare myself in case it happens. But you're right...it ain't happened yet. But with what we've seen the last few years it's hard not to go there...been a rough stretch. But I'll try to do better...

On 10/7/2021 at 10:50 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

High to low, north to south typically. The species (predominant) in an area plays a role as well.

Ah okay...so I'm guessing the Upperco, MD area would come before the city (that's where me and my folks go on a Fall drive each year).

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t take leesburg too seriously. He’s here for the sunshine and the lulz

I'm talking about him and others. I don't even want to ask questions anymore because I'll probably get trolled (again). Worst mistake I ever made on here was apparently asking too many questions last year....and now nobody will let me forget it--despite the crazier posters on here that get a pass.

Now I'm asking more for a "how things work" reason than a "What will definitely happen" reason.

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Since you won't be tracking does that mean instead of 50 questions a page you will only ask 40?

What's wrong with asking questions? This is what I mean...now granted I'm learning more about what ya just can't know for sure...so those more chaos-related questions? Not so much. I probably won't be on as much in general (unless there's something 24 hours out...and even then just sparingly, lol)

But see...y'all have turned it into a more hostile place to ask questions because of comments like this.

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Negative AO/weak PV historically brings colder air. NA blocking promotes a more favorable storm track for the MA and puts the Highs and Lows to our north in the right places. Last winter our cold air source was largely cut off by the Pac jet flooding Canada with warmth, and there wasn't a significant/sustained -EPO to promote cross polar flow and overcome the anomalous warmth there.

Thank you for actually answering my question. I feel like I can't even do that here anymore...sheesh

2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

It's only early October. Are you going to be ok?

Better than okay--I won't be tracking (much) because I have no expectations for this winter based on what I've seen. This winter is already mediocre imo barring a fluke--and I'm kinda at peace with that. Will it still kinda suck watching it happen? Somewhat...but this time around I'm not gonna be looking on here as much to hear about pattern change this, potential that, digital snow this, digital snow that....not worth the energy. Just take whatever when it gets here, enjoy scenery snow (at least we can still get that!)

Get off my back, all of ya...I do not understand why everyone acts like I'm the only one who loves snow around here...y'all allow other folks to freak out but somehow when I do it ya wanna send me to the psych ward...y'all are somethin', smh.

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because of the blocking. We need to get some of that cold over here and then set up some blocking 

So hang on...can we summarize last year as the cold air not having long enough to get over to our side before the blocking came? (with the secondary problem of an unfortunate split of the vortex in the wrong spot in February). Ya gotta wonder if the first (the cold air getting stuck on the other side of the world) was something random or part of a bigger problem.

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I think tracking this winter is going to be very frustrating.  I guess I won’t get my expectations up for snowstorms outside three days unless at least three global models are in agreement.

I wouldn't if I were you! Lol I know I ain't...I mean maybe from a distance, but that's about it! Don't see the point since a) it's a Nina and b) we don't know about the base state and what still works and what doesn't!

5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

It can stay warmish until mid November for all I care...I'm a firm believer that if it gets cold too early we bounce warm at the wrong time. I'd rather risk staying warm vs hoping the cold holds when it does us no good. Snap into cold early December and let's have a festive holiday season. 

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

100%

Now we had this last year...with the torched November. But then we still didn't have a ton of cold air. I remember @psuhoffman suggesting that the warm November may have influenced what happened in January (blocking with lack of cold air). So...will it make a difference this time? That's the question...

Now last year when I went out to Caroll County the day after election day...the color was just coming in full in Baltimore yet out there the peak already passed...was trying to avoid the same outcome this year! Does it go from west to east?

Any foliage updates?

4 hours ago, frd said:

 

Possibly central Pac based La Nina setting up during the boreal winter. There is support for that outcome. 

 

 

4th double dip this century...2nd one the last 6 years. Why do we double-dip on ninas? Boo!

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Umm DC had 10” and BWI 14” total in 2011.  Both below avg.  That’s remembered as a pretty bad year in this forum. 

And we were lucky to get that! (Thanks to Commutagedon, lol)

On 9/28/2021 at 12:48 PM, frd said:

We need arctic cold in my opinion combined with blocking. Some fear this combo leading to cold and dry.  I actually like to play that card because we may score here in the low lands. 

This. At this point I'd rather risk cold and dry...at least it would show we can still have a cold source!

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 1960's were predominately -PDO/-NAO.

For clarification...the -PDO is the hostile PAC, right?

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Woof

 

Why do folks keep using that model? Haha (worse this Twitter is treating it like gospel, lol)

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Wasnt Jan 2019 a 5 inch event for Baltimore?

Nope! 4.8"...LOL That was a troll job that time!

But seriously though...I never thought we'd see a stretch where it would be this hard for Baltimore to get to 5 inches...I mean ya used to think that was a basic achievable thing every few years! But it'll be 6 this January barring anything in December...one 5 incher this winter would kinda be a winner by that standard, haha

19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes ouch but that’s kinda been the trend/ratio recently.  DC has not benefited from good winters in Philly as often recently as historically. 

And that would kinda be a Nina normal, wouldn't it? Miller B train, lol 

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Its a psychological relief to know in advance that the odds of a normal winter for the Mid Atlantic outside of the higher elevations is going to be a challenge. That notion typically fits well with a Nina. 

Data supports less and less snowfall the last 5 years from generally DC and points South and SW.  

I also mentioned last winter I feel that a + PNA is more important than a super negative AO.   Donald S. may even have the stats to prove this. Nothing is simple anymore,  prior positive weather teleconnections need to be taken with a step back. No one really knows what this winter will hold, outside of the persistance track of late.      

Yes it is better to know now than later...I know I'm not gonna track much of anything (and hence staying off of here more and sparing myself depression/angst, lol) because you pretty much know what we're dealing with. And it's typical nina...now what's annoying is that this is the FOURTH Nina we've had in the last 6 years, smh I still wanna know why ninas seem to come in pairs more than niños...sheesh.

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

2018-19 was a Nino winter.

Wait the PAC was actually favorable that year? (now,I know the Nino never really coupled to the atmosphere that winter...and I attributed that to the somewhat lackluster results)

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes. Or worse

So...how many consecutive years before we talk about this being a mainstay? I mean I'm wondering about history here...any records about the most consecutive years with a hostile PAC? (Did that happen in the 70s?)

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

So basically the PAC is gonna be the same as it has been the last 5 years?