Maestrobjwa

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You getting on my bus?

Not to mention...it's on a weekend! Ain't that when a lot of our bigger snows showed up?  

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours.

 

 

12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.

Of course it's an op run 200+ hrs away (and not worth parsing details at this range) but I'd note that, at the very least...unlike the storm before it,.you actually have the fully frozen result you'd expect to have with a high over top right there...so at least that's something, lol

3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Euro looks pretty for the 28th

Would love to have that to track starting this weekend!

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@leesburg 04 My points are frustration at the larger picture and how much harder it's getting to get snow...not specific to this week.  We may luck out still...its a really nice setup still...just need some south adjustment to the current consensus but I am also still seeing signs the coverage of snow will be much less then it should be historically given this setup.  An amplifying southern wave sliding west to east under a block with an airmass that originated in the Arctic over the top...that should have a HUGE expansive WAA snow shield to its north and northeast and we shouldn't need to be sweating getting the exact perfect track to get some snow.  It was already hard to get snow here...if every storm even in a really good pattern has some paltry narrow freaking area of snow it makes it even more likely we strike out even in good patterns, and you can forget it in mediocre or bad ones.  

And you don't think this may just be unique to this particular year? Is there precedent?...Didn’t I hear talk of the cold air being bottled up in the other side of the globe a month ago? I mean, maybe this is me trying to keep some hope alive that what we're seeing is not permanent, but...Didn't we have the "bomb cyclone" just two years ago? I don't remember an absence of cold air that year (just that dang fast flow). 

What if something particular about this year (that's not related to the elephant in the room) caused this?

@psuhoffman A couple pages late, but I'm loling at the "UGH"...first time I've ever seen that one a weather map, lol Hopefully we see less "UGH" on the GFS over the next day or two!

44 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Para GFS is a snowstorm for GA/SC/NC on the 28th.

Of course it's an OP run still 9-10 days away, but let's pretend that was likely...how much sense would that make, given the continental struggle for cold? Isn't this the kind of winter where, you'd think, we'd be less likely to see suppressed AND cold, given our struggles with cold air? Like if we were to struggle getting it up here, why would they get it down that that way? Lol

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@winterwxlover14 even that cmc run last night that had a fully phased 974 bomb off the coast the snow in VA was very marginal and only due to the extreme dynamics.  I mean what does it take anymore????!!!

Alright if you're frustrated it must really be a problem, lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

For you and me the temp issue I pointed out above isn’t as potentially fatal a flaw.  But if I lived on the coastal plain and I kept seeing rain with a low off the coast in late January with a non pac puke airmass...I mean that’s kinda depressing!   

It's really something...and there really is little explanation why this is happening (other than the thing that must not be named). Is there anything else that could be causing it?

Second wave doesn't look too bad on the old GFS, no?

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A larger window of opportunity or a larger window in the event you decide to leap out?

Ah come now...you know I don't leap out  I refuse to go to the macabre panic room, no matter what happens, lol

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro hinting at a 3rd weakening of the PV and possible wind reversal early February. If so we can probably discount a NAM state flip this season. 

Interesting...wonder if that offers some opportunity in Feb? Would be nice to have a larger window! 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok. 

I see...but for now, the rest of January looking like a shutout, I take it?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east. 

And...then we have another problem in February, right? (Was asking about that yesterday...will we have to punt the month of Feb?)

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup. It connects the ridge and that’s ballgame. 

This for the Day 9 thing?

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also. 

You think they do it randomly?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Scientific analysis of their day to day forecasts show they have no more accuracy than random chance. 

Still funny when they hit it on the nose, though, date and all (like I said, they hit last month on the nose...both Almanacs had the storm)...must be some formula they use. Doesn't seem like they're just shooting in the dark...to my eyes it seems to be a certain non-zero percentage they get something right, lol

29 minutes ago, Nor'easter said:

Hmm...  Farmers Almanac calls for a blizzard the second week of February.

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How the wooly worms look?

I like to keep score on them...they nailed both the December 16th storm, Christmas cold front, and the NYE front. Not so much this month...no snow forecast, but it's not "very cold", lol I always find it amusing when they do get it right...not sure what formula they use to try and guess! But I don't take them too seriously...just a bit of a "huh...we'll see". But surprising was last year...not even they predicted much snow, lol

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mahomes out for the game damn.

Must be concussion weekend...dang. But the Chiefs are so good they found a way anyway, smh But now the drama begins for how quickly Mahomes can clear the protocol...

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ravens wont make a change. Harbaugh is stubborn when it comes to being 'loyal' to his assistants.

 

Except when he fired Cam Cameron before that Super Bowl run...and he also fired Morningweig after the 2019 playoff loss

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s never going to snow again.  Hahah you’re a Vikings fan and....

nevermind.  I had to remind myself that Daniel Synder is the owner of my team.  And my team sucks.  And it has no name.  And we made the playoffs because we were the least suck ass team in our division.  And....

Really feel bad for you guys...My Ravens may have their playoff struggles at the moment, but I am thankful for having a stable, well-run organization! WFT's owner...mercy above.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

As everything retrogrades the ridge there has pulled back enough that we could get something to amplify along the east coast.  It’s a temporary window before pac puke starts to invade again but there is a really good window of a few days as the pattern retrogrades and essentially reboots back to where we started. That is often how we get a east coast storm.  It’s why we usually warm up soon after. 

So I'm still wondering about February, then...Do we have any more clarity on whether it's gonna be a lost month? If so, I do hope the little window at the end of the month you mentioned produces...But it would be nice not to have to punt Feb!

1 hour ago, frd said:

Wonder if we recycle the pattern and it actually produces possibly later in February even though many have written February off

Later February past President's day doesn't usually work, historically...We either hit it between Jan 20th and that day or not at all barring a rare March exception lol

5 hours ago, blizzardmeiser said:

But in 4 post season games, it’s fair to say he’s been terrible in 3 of them. 

SO FAR...keyword. People are acting like it's so farfetched that he could still get better. How many definitive statements can we really make about a QB that just turned 24? Mahomes and Brady are is an anomalies...ain't gonna happen like that all the time. It takes time to learn how to win in the playoffs (see Peyton Manning)...and this year Lamar finally got one win. What if that is a sign of growth? He could get two or more wins next year and even up (or get above) record...nothing is set in stone. Personally I'm gonna give him at least next season to see if/how he progresses.

Disappointing end to the season, but at least we came out of it with Lamar finally getting his first playoff win ("finally"...as if it's been years, lol). Disappointed that the adversity didn't turn into a championship, but...perhaps we can still get there. Need a new offensive coordinator...Roman needs to go, unless he changes his entire passing approach...which I'm not entirely sure he can/will. One thing is for sure, the team took a step forward overall...and the defense is great! Just the offense...get Lamar a true #1 (Allen Robinson would be a dream pickup), and again...reconsider our OC...PLEASE! Go Ravens!!