Maestrobjwa

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs.  We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted...

Yeah seriously...this is ridiculous. 12z tomorrow might be big...Can you imagine? If the euro were to tick the wrong way tomorrow...I'd imagine that throws the entire forecast off, right? And what would happen with the transfer? Unless it's the nightmare scenario of it not happening at all and the primary (or whichever it is) escaping. Let's hope we see a better trend tomorrow, because I'm telling ya...we're so close!

20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This seems like a good set of model signals with GFS very good, GEM perhaps a bit warmer solution than ideal, ECM now trending a bit suppressed, my guess is that a very large storm is likely and this divergence represents those developing signals coming into the mix -- in fact this could turn out to be a monster storm with the long interval of coastal development and signs that the center wants to set up very close to the Delaware coast. My hunch is we're looking at 20-30 inch amounts with this one. 

Good sir I hope your hunch is correct! Euro has some of us worried about a southern miss/fringe, lol But do you see that as correcting itself as we get closer?

Man if we end up smoking cirrus from this...smh I mean how does the confluence get stronger and stronger and stronger? When will it stop? When the WAA snowfall is all the way down in dang NC, and we're stuck with flurries? Smh I hope we have better corrections tomorrow.

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range. 

Man I hope the Euro shifts right. It being right about yesterday when the rest of guidance wasn't has me nervous, dude...especially with the suppressive theme of the whole month. But hopefully tomorrow brings a better shift...

Just now, stormtracker said:

Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north.  I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is

I guess I'm nervous because the euro was the only one that got yesterday's suppressed storm track right. Wondering if we start seeing the other models get more and more suppressed...maybe that's my fears talking, lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol 

But seriously though...how far south is this gonna go?? I mean one or two more ticks south and I'm even fringed, smh

Just now, ryanconway63 said:

Big Run for the Euro tonight.....unfortunately ill be asleep....  Its been locked in for 5+ runs now....wouldn't expect much change...

I'll be satisfied with no missed transfer from suppression...that's all I wanna see tonight, lol

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Columbia deathband is alive and well!!!!

Except it expanded even to Baltimore, lol Good gloppity!!

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let’s be fair here. Any runs that show a more southern outcome ... you freak out. That’s when you somehow stop seeing the bigger picture. But I totally understand. This is an imby sport. But it works both ways.

I'd think a more southern outcome should make us all sweat a little bit...since psu dropped that bit about an outside chance it gets too far south and misses the transfer. @psuhoffman correct me if I interpreted that wrong.

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Primary is stubborn to fold this run, likely to have implications on the coastal.

So now hang on...we gonna have a model camp we're concerned about a late transfer on one end, and suppression/missed transfer on the other? Lol Fun times

1 minute ago, notvirga! said:

Ji updated his facebook to say he had a close friend pass away. He may not be around too much the next few days. 

So sorry to hear about that...prayers for his friend's family

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. 

So what's the point south where if it gets pushed there it misses the transfer?

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If we’re picking our fail method I say let’s go suppression.  We’ll hopefully still get something on the WAA, maybe just less, but at least it would be cold and wouldn’t melt right away. 

But that would result in half the forum failing to hit the warning mark (5") that to me would be a huge bust...because all this time the coastal has been a bit trickier of a question, but the front end seemed more sure. But to be in danger of not gettimg that AND missing the coastal? Brtual...hope it's just a blip.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping 

Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight.

13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Has anyone else been holding out and only now slowly allowing themselves to start believing this thing might actually happen? My bar is still ridiculously low (3-5" just south of Baltimore) but I'm actually starting to allow myself to get excited. Still keeping my eye out for Lucy, but letting my guard down

I'm at the point where I'm all in on the WAA part...but the coastal part? Still a tad cautious just because (probably because it's a Miller B, and how tricky those can be, and how we've been burned in the past) So that part of the storm I need another 24-36 hours of great runs before I'm comfortable, lol

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mike Trout on the @Wentzadelphia bus

 

Is he a snowlover too? Awesome!  Mike Frozen Trout!

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

This is correct. This actually happens with a lot of the blockbuster events that just "snow themselves out" before slowly trekking east out into the Atlantic. One of the classic cases was Feb 2013 in New England. Once it stacked, the storm slowly pulled due eastward, but it strengthened up until the 5H low tucked under Cape Cod. That's when cyclones reach full maturity. It's also a good time to look for TROWALS that can enhance snowfall on their way out. 

Could you elaborate a bit more on what occlusion is? (unless it's what you just explained, lol)

10 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said:

So a quick question - I would think this is more of a scenic storm?  I would think that 10 inches or so over a 24-36 hour time frame would be manageable for road crews down here.  How about the winds - any latest wind maps?  Thanks for all the great insight.

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Down this way, 10 inches over any period of time will cause road issues. 

25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Firs time looking at the LR in a few days.  GEFS really honking a cold pattern with ample blocking.  Maybe we will make up for 4 w̶e̶e̶k̶s̶ years of handwringing and letdowns with a rockin Feb!

 

Fixed  And we would certainly be entering February with a bang if this weekend goes as modeled!! Seriously...this weekend producing and a rockin' February is what we need in the worst way after the past 4-5 years. That would be a heck of a way to break the warning-snow drought!

Just now, ovechkin said:

Assuming it follows a similar path, when it gets into range the NAM is bound to have a run with some fun looking insane totals. Should be entertaining at least.

Fully expecting to see a 24-30" NAMing somewhere...lol

30 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol ji "we take?"

YES YOU FCKING TAKE ITS SNOW

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

@Maestrobjwa  you should steer clear of the main during these important runs PBP. Just a suggestion. 11 years on this board and I am not within 100 miles of being good enough to be on the con during these runs. 

Wait, what are you talking about? I was...just voicing my support for the two pbp's when mappy asked just one or two to PBP. No run opinions offered...I don't do those, I just read

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Get 'em momma! 

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Again, lets have one or two do the play by play. Yoda, you got this?

I vote Yoda and WW

Just now, mappy said:

lol we dont get paid

I was about to say, lolol