Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Phineas only has one eye though

So when they fixed the hole in his head they accidentally poked his eye out?

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

That means someone is getting crushed on the fall line then lol

Since Baltimore city is consistently right on the fall line in the modeling for this one...I'll take it! Lol

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man.

Hang on...is this whole double-barreled thing what's screwing up the track for us?

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ref show tonight

Again...

I chuckled at this headline...sums up what forecasting a storm like this is like! 2-18" folks 

19 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I mean I’m rooting for that and all but...

I'm a little surprised at this...Tom is usually a more conservative snow forecaster! Why this? Lol (not that all of us would jump at the chance of this...haha)

13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

GFS is slightly warmer in the mid-levels otherwise there isn’t really a discernible difference from 12z.

That being said, won’t do anything to reduce the tension in this thread lol. 

To reduce the tension...folks can start looking at the medium-long range again? The posts earlier today about the AO oughta soothe some nerves  I think it was encouraging!

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed.  You are being deliberately obtuse. 

I think his arguments are directed at the NAM talk in the other thread.

7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

If the NAM is “out of range” and mauls the area with snow it’s hugged and adored by all and they can’t wait for the next run, much the same over the weekend with the GFS and Euro giving 15-20 inches “out of range” at day 5 with 90 pages of comments. When the NAM is unfavorable and analyzed its bad, out of range and nobody wants to see it or hear about it. 

Did you mean to put this in the other thread?

And ya know that's the psychology around here...yeah it doesn't make any sense, but that's how it is, lol But please don't stop posting...we need more mets here, to break down the good, the bad, and the ugly!

9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

For those of us who need a reminder...

 

Why y'all gotta shade @Ralph Wiggum like that??

Just now, lester said:

I prefer to lurk in the shadows, tbh

Yes I gathered that there are several that lurk more than post...but hello anyway! 

7 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

HRRR with its first digital snow for Baltimore for this one. Looks very cold overall. But it's also at 48 hours so... just fun for now.

We're gonna be livin' on the age, lol I can't quite tell with all the DC/snowbelt posts here...but are lookin at 2-4" or 3-6"?

50 minutes ago, RDM said:

Anyone have the soundings for DCA and IAD for noon ET Thursday?   Curious how close it's going to be and comparing the two.  Out of consideration for the MD/DEL folks maybe throw in BWI too.  

Hey! The BWI crew are people too (I've always wondered why more Baltimore folks don't post here...it seems to be either DC or snowbelt, lol) 

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost went there, but I'm an admin.  Have to set the fucking standard around here for good language and good behavior.

It's not like Beethoven had good language 

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson.

Not sure you can make declaration until aftwrward...we're still 48-72 hours away from seeing what actually happens. And just because something has a TENDENCY, doesn't mean it happens 100% of the time.

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS looking good so far! 

Maybe it should've said "the snow you requested is not yet available"

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December.

Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. 

 

 

 

Whoa...if this keeps up, I'm gonna be saying "solar minimum" all winter long, lol

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

The 50/50 affects the confluence above/ahead of the storm, so, yes.

Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol)

15 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Weenie rule #347 - wait for the current torrential rain storm to clear the area before the models have a good grasp on the next storm.  

Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures?

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast.

Now am I being weenish for still putting a little hope in this coming in colder than expected...or is that still on the table?

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

You mix for a time, then you be whacked really good by a band that develops along the 85H frontogenic placement. 850mb temps crash from ~+1C to -5C in 3 hrs and it rips for like 6 hrs before shutting off. 

What I'm still not getting is why the low on these runs is tucking into the coast...what's making it do that, and what in the overall setup do we need to make it NOT do that? Lol

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am 33 with a forecast low of 36. This may very well surprise us. 

Would be awesome if this foreshadows colder than advertised for Wednesday 

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It was basically a hold at best. Not sure I get the excitement either.

It's better because the low is but more off the coast...and it stays colder with less mixing closer to I-95, it seems

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Katie once upon a time had a link you could follow to check for sure - I tried to look up Lauraville neighborhood for you but could not find it. I think from when I lived over there off of Harford Rd. in Hamilton before I move over here my elevation was around 225. 

Yeah @nw baltimore wx just gave me a great link...got me around 264'

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/lpps/Baltimore/

Hey that's a nice tool--thanks! So looks like I'm like 267'...lol