Maestrobjwa

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. Even if we have high latitude blocking, it’s going to be fighting against a hostile PAC. That’s a losing battle for us more often than not.

So basically the PAC is gonna be the same as it has been the last 5 years?

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The CFS may be off it's rocker, but it has a very wet October in the Southwest. We're heading into a cold-ENSO winter. But we also should have a pretty high ACE value. It's not real common for a wet October + big ACE combo to happen down here, especially with a cold ENSO look. I'm real curious to see what happens in the Atlantic - 2020 October-November ACE was third highest since 1931, behind 1932 and 2016. Unheard of to be as active as 2020 was late two years in a row. So ACE might only hit 155 or 160 or something. My weighted analogs of 1974 and 2017 as a blend might actually be about right - 150 ish ACE, with 1.00 inch of rain in October. 

Some of the moisture shown is the CFS not understanding a lot of the incoming rain will fall 9/30 in actual American time and not UTC. But it probably does see an actual wet month even ignoring that issue.

Now tell me this...what does ACE do to the weather patterns and such?

I still can't quite process what we saw, lol I mean that was something else...wow!!! In case there was any doubt he'll be in the HOF one day...there ya go!! But it's crazy for that game to end that way--with a win and history-making kick--after all the reasons we had to lose...that's kinda mind-boggling!!

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah, and just as you would have it, as reconnaissance leaves, a strong CB encircles the eyewall. That's the way it goes. lol...

"Wait wait--turn those planes around!"

28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The last winter that fell in that temperature range at DCA was 13-14.

Man we haven't had a positive analog in years, lol Anybody ever notice that the last 4-5 years the only analogs discussed are bad/mediocre years? Would like a good analog for a change...13-14 would be nice 

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Would be nice to have another go at it...now if we get it for a second winter in a row and it still doesn't work? Sheesh (but I guess even blocking still needs a good cold source!)

2 hours ago, frd said:

In the end this means nothing.   Just mentioning it.  We are in a new background state as well.    Hard to get excited about any meaningful winter weather since the super El Nino reset.  Even blocking doesn't work anymore.  Less cold air to work with and less baroclinic boundaries .

And that's the problem...folks think I'm jumping off a cliff with the idea that things may be broken for snow chances, but until I see us have an above average winter again, I don't think I'll be convinced that they're not. This is not the 70s...and can we really say we've had this background state before? I'm telling ya...something might be going on.

18 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Do you mean the 1998 El Nino? Some of our snowiest winters have been since then. Also our coldest February on record. (2015)  Snowiest winter on record too (2009-10).  

Nah I think he's referring to the other one (2015-16). Things ain't been right since!

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's very impressive considering that just a few weeks ago that region was barely above normal. Everything has lined up for an extended CV season. 

CV?

On 9/21/2021 at 8:44 PM, frd said:

 

 

For December SSW events.

 

 

 

So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"

2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"              

2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T                     

2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"                

1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"                

1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"               

1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"              

1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"               

1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"

So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Post your observations, picture and general fall foliage topics. You could also post things about fall in general but try to keep it to foliage. Thought it would be a good idea considering next week looks cooler and there is some slight colors on the trees already. Thanks to @Maestrobjwa for reminding me, I thought about this topic earlier in the week but just remembered after you mentioned it and better to make it sooner than later. 

Thanks! Yeah just wanted to try and get an idea...(because every year by the time I think of it's the peak is already past, lol). A met on Twitter suggested that the second/third week of October would be the peak...anybody have any thoughts on that?

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My personal observation with the HC is that it took a leap in the 1998 actually during that super Nino, and never really fell back to its original state before that particular El Niño took place - it has if anything grown somewhere between 3 and 5° of latitude since.

A question: If you said it took a leap during THAT super nino...does it stand to reason that it took another leap during the 2015-16 super niño? Because let me tell ya...feels like that year broke something, lol

Anybody gonna start a foliage thread? Trying to pick just the right time to drive up to Friendly Farms  (usually our family's autumn drive!)

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Good to see rain in the forecast for the northwest. Hopefully the rest of the west can make up some of their deficit this fall and winter.

Knowing that wretched climate they'll probably flood and/or mudslide....sheesh. I hope the in between seasons are worth it!!

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December.  

But wait...didn't last year kinda reverse that? Remember how November torched? Lol

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

Bastardi is all over a cold start to winter.  With december anomalies below avg based on his analog pkgs.  Not sure how I should hedge that.

I mean...aren't la ninas usually colder on the front end anyway?

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Translation? Lol

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Always root for a -AO

That is, assuming those still work, lol Certainly didn't last year!!

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Might as well start a thread to track the extended range as we head into the latter part of September.  First freeze for the mountains (technically Canaan already hit it) should be coming into guidance soon.  Meanwhile, DCA won't hit freezing until January probably.

Nah I'm gonna bet the corridors probably hits it in December...ninas do tend to be colder on the front end, lol

On 9/11/2021 at 6:43 AM, IronTy said:

Yeah we've moved on to winter 22-23, somebody needs to start a thread.  

I'm legit tempted to do this...lol Moderators likely wouldn't allow though!

On 9/10/2021 at 8:22 PM, Chris78 said:

Canceling winter already? Lol

I wouldn't say "cancel" as in a 2019-20 redux...just canceling for getting that elusive verified WSW, and the usual Nina heartbreakers northeast (Miller B city) and Midwest...and southeast, lol We could still get some good scenery snow...and eek out enough to get near median...but that's the most we get out of ninas. All else is the snowhole, typically. 

Listen I'm just going off of 2016-17 & 2017-18 where we saw this. And last year kinda the same (note the Miller B we got just the edge of). Chaos can happen, but it rarely does in a Nina, lol The other ENSO states at least have more possibilities, though the chaos makes NO guarantees.

Old Farmer's Almanac prediction actually sounds like a good Nina prediciton...cold and dry here, cold and snowy Midwest & Northeast. Folks say there's no magic formula, but of all the ENSO states...are ninas not the most predictable? I'm still waiting for someone to give me one example other than 95/96 where a Nina didn't do exactly as stated above...I don't understand why past ninas aren't reliable indicators of future ones. The other ENSO states vary--I get that--but ninas seem to be the most consistent in not getting us much snow. The 3 ninas we've had since 2016 have all behaved in a similar way (albeit last winter it was a bit warmer overall)

Looking ahead...I'd like to get another shot at it next year to see where the ENSO is...because this year might be toast--although I wouldn't be surprised if we trip into median snowfall (which I'll certainly take over a shutout) a la 2017-18. But as always the snow hole is gonna be tough to watch...but thus ninas go.

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Shades of Nov 2011.. Also a second year Nina coming off of a hot Summer.

Don't even bring that year up...lol Raging +AO a la 2019-20! Ack

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Marcus peters probably too! What the f*ck is happening!?!

I daresay this one hurts more...you can committee RBs...not so much star corners

Veey heavy downpour here! A few rumbles of thunder as well