Maestrobjwa

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

2 things. 1) nothing works every time 2) some of us don’t measure a winter only by above average snowfall. 
 

Moderate to strong anything can bring great or awful. I’ll sacrifice “huge” for consistent any day.

1) Never said every time...just MOST of the time. Always exceptions (like last year's -AO/-NAO not working). Historically mod ninos have produced the most...followed by some neutrals.

2) I mean don't most of us here want above average...or even above median?......Just me? Lol I mean what's a good winter?

3) Moderate to Strong Nina...name one time outside of 1995-96 that was good! And name a mod nino that wasn't. Strong ninos are indeed hit or miss.

42 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Blocking this year again?

If that's the case I'm sorry the blocking has had to come under a Nina regime. I think if we had had it during 2018-19 that could've been better!

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m a believer that neutral is the best for the types of winter that I want. From -0.5 to 0.5. More consistently wintry.

Neutral didn't work two years ago...lol (albeit the +AO rage party was probably the culprit). But are not moderate ninos the most consistent for above average snowfall? I think the only one in recent years that didn't work was 1991-92...and I heard that Pinatubo probably had something to do with that. But mod ninos seem to be once a decade, though...

I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

I mean he has a good point. Let’s just all be hopeful until that theory crumbles. Lol. 

It may have already crumbled last winter...lol Well maybe not crumbled, since we did have the -AO/-NAO...it just may not work anymore, who knows?

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sure, why not.

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20

"Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!"

But again, though...the solar minimum was in late 2019, correct? We're past the lag time! And again...last winter's -AO/-NAO I thought was the result of the minimum...just that we couldn't do anything with it. And even if this year ends up being the actual solar min. benefit, how is that gonna happen with a la nina? And, both 02/03 and 09/10 also happened to be El Ninos...

2 hours ago, mappy said:

This. Please!

Yeah we had all but one thread on the entire site completely implode over this last year, lol (how the one in the Great lakes/Midwest forum survived I had no idea!)

Okay I have to ask...why is it that la ninas easily repeat in consecutive years yet El niños don't? Smh And dang it we JUST had consecutive la ninas a few years ago (16-17 & 17-18 I believe)...and here we are again. Shoot if things are gonna warm why can't we see more niño? Lol Would be nice if it worked that way!!

On 7/15/2021 at 12:19 PM, H2O said:

Speaking of retirement.  Tomorrow is my last day.  Then 

Congratulations good sir!! And Happy Retirement!!

7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One thing that gets my hopes up this winter is we're coming out of a solar minimum and historically that has led to some really snowy winters!  1965-1966, 1986-1987, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010 (1977-1978 had lagged more following the minimum)

There's one problem with this...last winter was one year after the solar minimum. And lo and behold...we did indeed get our high lat blocking with the -AO/-NAO (isn't that what the whole theory with the minimum is about?) The problem is it didn't do any good!!

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Sounds like you’re trying to convince yourself. 

Lol...convince myself of what, exactly?

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Stop panicking lol.

This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.

That's what I mean. The "here" and "there" might be getting less frequent. Not so much panicking as weak resignation...5 years and counting since even sniffing over 5 inches. It did not used to be this way. I've looked at the winter from 1980 through now. I'm not sure we've ever gone this long without an area-wide footer coming in some point--at least not since the 70s. Really we can only manage 3-4 inches maximum in a storm in the corridor...whereas before..."now and then" was every 3-4 years. It has been almost 6. 

I'm gonna miss WSWs, truly....but median is just 2 inchers and 3 inchers...and that would be easier to accept IF we were still able to get a great winter every 3-4 years like we used to. That way it wouldn't be like now where it's like..."dang, it's been 5 years!"...was never like that in my brief lifetime. My concern is what used to be 3-4 times per decade may be even less--and that's assuming things aren't so broken that it can't happen, smh.

But again...scenery snows (the 1-4 inchers)...I'm learning to appreciate those too. Last winter was more appreciation of that mixed with some sadness missing what we used to be able to get more often (which wasn't "frequent" but never 6 years apart) But...hopefully I'm wrong and we get surprised!

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think there’s any rational basis for a statement like this. Emotional maybe. There were some lame winters in the early 70’s, seemingly all through the 80’s and the early 90’s. We had decent to good winters 2 of the last 3 years so I don’t think I’ll jump on the “it’s over forever” train just yet.

I mean...a PAC jet dominated winter 3 (or is it 4?) years in a row doesn't warrant at least rational speculation? I mean it seems like we are in unknown territory here, does it not? Unless there was another time in our history where the dang PAC dominated several winters in a row? The lack of cold air source last winter despite the -AO/-NAO that typically gives us an above average winter? I don't know dude...And seeing as it's been almost 6 years since BWI saw a foot, or got too far above median, I'm really beginning to wonder. We haven't gone that long since the 70s. The 80s weren't quite like it...1983...2 footer...1987...above average. 5 year separation. We are working on 6 years...

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ruh-roh....I'll be heading up to Cecil County in a couple hours...hope we can beat the storms!

34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Comically, the latest HRRR throws a band back at DC as Elsa passes by.

It's like we're talking about it modeling a Miller B...lol

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I confess to being a snow watcher no longer as hung up on enso state as I used to be for snow around here. 

Yeah it kinda sucks that we can't rely on that as much...because now it's more difficult to know what we need to work to get warning level snow in the corridor again!

21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

One thing that became clear to me over the past couple of winters is that Enso means absolutely nothing for our area anymore. You guys simply got unlucky to the east last year. It was a respectable winter west of the fall line. 

So if we can't look at enso...ya wonder how even somewhat accurate winter forecasting even a month out can be, lol (not to mention analogs)

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I would guess a Pac jet on steroids blasting into N. America would likely be antithetical to clippers.

I guess the thing to watch now...is if this feature is permanent. Not sure how many winters in a row we need to see it before we make that determination, though...because if it's becomes permanent...are analogs kinda out the window? Lol

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. This area has the dullest weather.

Eh...I wouldn't say the dullest. Imo we are just in the middle enough to make things interesting, lol But when it comes to snow...I think it's just gonna be a tempering down of expectations from pre-2017...a lot of great hits kinda spoiled us!

57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Depends on your definition of good snow. Again, the period 2012-2015 had plenty of good snow and cold.

I thought you moved to Florida? Never say never I guess but I don’t think there is any setup that will produce there lol

Ohhhh no you must be thinking of somebody else--not in a million years would a move down there, lol

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Considering it is directly upstream, it always is a major factor. Wrt last winter, pretty easy to just say a Nina will typically not be kind to the MA with more NS dominance and weak or non existent STJ. A N shifting/stronger Pac jet, if that ends up being more of a fixture in winter going forward, may tend to modify ENSO impacts(especially weak events) and other indices that are historically correlated to cold/snow in the DC area, such as the AO phase. 

Dang...that scenario makes ya go *gulp*...Because that might mean, and correct me if I'm being overly simplistic, that we need a legit, moderate-strong El Niño to get good snow (and we only get those what...once maybe twice a decade?)

OR...is there another scenario where such pac modification would actually help?

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's the Pac firehouse that is primarily driving lately. Barely any cold in our source region when we needed it, despite a predominately favorable AO/NAO last winter.

And we haven't been able to shake that since 2016 have we?

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea so enso wont be driving winter. We just need some blocking like last year and well see what happens

But the blocking last year didn't do any good...did it?

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just expect a disaster and be happy with what you get. 

Listen we may have to learn to be content with a few inches. I'm not sure we can get bigger snow anymore, tbh. Last winter...some good scenery snow that was beautiful to look at. If we can't get bigger snows I think I can take that as a consolation prize (I guess, lol)

44 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Ozone. Smells like chlorine.

Right after a bad storm.

32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Kinda like Chlorine, but also somewhat Fruity? Kind of a weird smell that I can’t describe well.

Wow! Had no idea ozone was something you could actually smell! Is it only after tropical systems?