Maestrobjwa

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Are you sure nobody expected it to continue?

Dude I was thinking the exact same thing, lolol

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Verbatim, surface is roasting in DC on the GFS so rain.  I’m not really buying it but who knows 

Given that the para, cmc, and even euro are all colder...not sure we should buy it

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not enough baroclinicity. These boundaries, even now, are lacking the potential energy they should have with a greater temperature gradient. It’s a little better now. At least the waves aren’t squashed to LA lol. But it’s still not enough to get them to amplify much given a suppressed flow. 

Now isn't suppression more nina-like because of the tendency toward more NS activity? (I remember at one time in Jan 2018 seeing a parade of HP's coming down the middle of the country, lol

11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I guess the GEFS might end up right for this one. Enjoy!

Couldn't stay away, could ya? 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Anomalies still happen. But almost all the snow to our south...and at our latitude lately, comes from getting lucky with an upper level feature to crash temps.  When was the last time we saw a huge expanse or cold powder to the northeast of a low coming across the US?  If the coverage of snowfall overall in a larger scale decreases the odds of any one spot getting snow goes down.   

Define "lately"...Just this year, or did you see something between 2016 and now? Again I'll mention the "bomb cyclone"...lol

Ya know how they say "pics or it didn't happen"? Well now we're in here like "EURO or it didn't happen", lol

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU.

According to him even then he's still stressed during the storm and then disappointed when it's over and the snow starts melting. (and I'm not making that up, lol) It makes absolutely no sense...and I thought my snow psychology was wonky, lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. 

How do we know this isn't unique to just this season, though? You mentioned yesterday about the PV pushing cold to the other side of the globe and the fall torch...how do we know that's not what's doing this? I mean...It still snowed in the 2018-19 winter, didn't it? How do we get snow in the south, and even the January system that year, if the overall base state is bad? And with last year's +++++++++++AO...can we even count that year? Lol Maybe I'm thinking about these things too simplistically, or maybe I'm just looking for optimism, but...I'm just wondering.

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Main takeaway I have is that it is still miles apart from the Euro since it still shows a dynamic storm. 

Yes but remember the discussion about the GFS and it's data...if true, and we see 18z get a little worse again, (and no improvement on the euro) this could be the beginning of the ticks...

11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Some people aren't going to be able to handle today

And you're able to stay above all, eh?

1 minute ago, Ji said:

For it being so close to game time it's a step in the wrong direction

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Actually it was a baby step in the right direction...still closer than 12z or last night's 0z

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Euro gets pretty cold Monday evening...33-34 in the city

Other thread? 

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

That would be a huge improvement cause today at 12z was the most deflated I've been since 00z last night

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

I hear ya brother...I think even the most stoic among us took that punch this morning, lol

I'm halfway expecting the 0z euro to look like the para this run...which would still be progress 

31 minutes ago, mappy said:

This hobby is a roller coaster of emotions. 

Now do you say that with sarcasm or do you also get rolled coaster emotions with this hobby? Lol

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Incoming..This has to be good right psu?

Which model is that?

Just now, notvirga! said:

An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel. 

Wait, so lighter rates of freezing rain cause things to be more slippery than heavier rates?

Just now, snowfan said:

NSFW

I didn't know the models did purple (you can see it right over DC, lol)

Sweet mama...do I see a little purple in there too? Lol

1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

occasionally

Occasionally may be about the most healthy amount of time to be on this board in the winter...lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect.  It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. 

Now I was wondering if it was an improvement...because that run a bit of snow still got up here, right? I thought that was still better than 0z as well...but I thought it was just my snow weenie brain trying to find something, lol I guess tonight's 0z is gonna be telling if we see the euro trend better...

Well...at least in the Euro case we don't have to deal with seeing snow south of us...so if we gotta fail then this is a better way for me, lol

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Notice...the GEFS have not shifted that NE wall to the precip running through central NJ at all the last few runs...but are tightening up the precip south of that line.  That is about what I expect in the end.  Somewhere between Philly and NYC is going to be a very very sharp cutoff and south of that gets a good snow and north is smokin cirrus 

So could you explain again your confidence that the cutoff sets up there and why it's less risk that it sets up south of us?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this sounds contradictory...but imo its all about the health of that upper level system in the Ohio valley.  If that is amplified enough I do expect some north adjustment towards gametime.  But I bet it goes one way or the other.  If the upper level wave is too weak and starts to shear out this will trend south...and end up not even that close.  If it is healthy enough to pump ridging in front it will amplify enough that it will trend north SLIGHTLY.  So long as its not a shearing out mess as it comes across my bet is it trends slightly north...but this isn't a setup that argues way north...if DC is being fringed we are good...if richmond is being fringed...uh oh.  But I don't see a close south miss with an amplified wave to be a high risk...this is either going to wash out and be a weak NC system or amplify and we are good.  

I'm psyched with one of those scenarios and good with the other. If we can't get it I'd rather south not get it either, lol

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Lifebuoy to the rescue! 

Well see I had missed the whole mess in here...what happened? Lol