Jump to content

Maestrobjwa

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,549

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Maestrobjwa

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, H2O said:

    It's fine I suppose.  We look to mix but if its for the greater good of everyone else then that's what has to happen like it does all other storms we mix and others rip fatties.  A shift a little more S would be nice to see or some better front end.  We know what happens when the CCB sets up over the...wait for it....usual areas.  That sinking air dies off and anyone outside the deform is looking at grey skies.

     

    My top end has been 8"  If I get 5" that's more than what's I've had TOTAL the last 3 years.

    Ah so you didn't get in on the Jan 2019 snowfall either? I know DC got a foot but fringed north, lol

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Yea that is killing places DC south. Even with some marginal gains from part 2 it’s a net loss. Unfortunately the primary is shearing out and weakening so the WAA is dying as it gets to us. Suppression ugh lol 

    And yet that helped the CCB! Look What an inverse relationship

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, high risk said:

           except that if we fail on the CCB, 6-8" for areas north of DC probably isn't the default option.    3-5" seems more reasonable, and that could legitimately fall to 2-4" (see NAM nest).

    Had that in the back of my brain as I was typing it...shoot. So we gonna need the CCB in order to achieve the recently elusive 5" warning level criteria? Oof

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

    The large discrepancy between all the models is indicative of how uncertain things are. Pattern is fragile with a lot of moving parts, any one of them could be on to something as we do not know what the outcome will be. How ever the model initializes the moving parts is the eventual outcome. Complexity of a Miller B. From climo, they are usually not too favorable for the Mid Atlantic, more so the Northeast and we are seeing those trends. Fact is, the 500 trough and upper low are not all that impressive until later in the game. 

    Well, in this case, at least we have the WAA...as long as nothing negative happens with that, many of us get out of this with warning criteria, hopefully. As much as we'd love to have double digits, if we gotta fail with the CCB, 6-8" isn't a bad consolation prize!

    • Like 1

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, North Balti Zen said:

    Not sure why anyone on the board from BWI north isn't smoking a cig and staring dreamily at that. Weird to see complaining/worry from anyone Route 32 and north after a run like that. 

    That's close to max potential for us. Beyond, even. Not gonna happen, obviously, but fun to see a crazy run from one of the models this close in. 

    I think part of it is because this whole setup and the various scenarios between the WAA and the CCB is kinda confusing (I mean it is for me, at least), so it's a little hard to know where your yard is at outside of the snowfall maps themselves.

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

    WAA too weak and not as robust on early totals and coastal develops too late so no backside. His worry is the fail worry for any of us in a MillerB.  Magnified where he is because backside in a Miller B is harder to catch out that way.  

     

    Okay, I understand that...but what I'm saying is, does a weaker WAA mean an earlier coastal? Or are they not connected like that?

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, clskinsfan said:

    Depends where you live. I certainly dont like the trend at 0Z for my area. But up where you are you should be pretty happy. I had pretty low expectations for my area anyways. We always get screwed in Miller B's. ALWAYS. I was hoping to snag 6 inches with the waa. But that has trended down tonight as well. 

    Alright I'm confused here...we're seeing more favorable trends with the coastal/CCB, right? Now, is there some kind of inverse relationship with the WAA for areas like yours? (Apologies...just trying to visualize the scenarios here)

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    12 hours ago that vort over New England was trending south. It has since relaxed some. But in a way suppressed is still an issue just not in an easily apparent way. But the fail option is to see the WAA wave suppressed...then have the coastal develop too late like the NAM. That ends up looking like the problem was a north trend because the coastal wraps snow back in to our north but in reality suppression initially helped that happen.  We need a storm to develop a healthy circulation and amp up quicker down here compared to the other northeast cities further up the coast.  

    So...are you saying that we can benefit from even more relaxation of that vort over NE? So in a way it's like the opposite...suppression issues show up as "north" and not south? In other words, a further relaxation of that vort would produce a more of a "south"--in a good way--solution?

    *head spinning*

    • Haha 1

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    Yea, I totally get that. As a father of 4 kids and a lot of friends over 50 years old, I worry myself when someone goes quiet. That was never my intention. Had I had known at any time that my absence was going to be this long I would have dropped a line. I was really glad when WxUSAF emailed me a few months ago honestly. I had already been thinking that I'm indirectly (or directly) causing people to have dark thoughts about my whereabouts because I'm the same exact way with other people. 

    I too was wondering about your well being--but as long as you were okay, I totally respected whatever your reasons for not being on here. Thanks for your post of explanation--I think your reasoning is something we all need to keep in mind with this hobby: taking inventory of just how much time we are putting into this vs real life!

    Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

    Hope we don't see this creep north with each run though. IMO, by 12z tomorrow we'll probably know if we're looking at a low end warning event or if something special is coming down the pike. Having flashbacks from December.

    We were just worrying about suppression 12 hrs ago...lol Like psu said, there is definitely a limit to how far north things get. That confluence is definitely there...but just weak enough to help, hopefully.

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...