Maestrobjwa

15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

"But it's just the testing! The testing!".......lol

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not sure how much the former factor will help. There is often a lag effect between enso and pattern and even a weak to moderate Nina isn’t exactly great snow climo in our area.  But I am very much in agreement on the latter. The pacific SST is really in contradiction between the enso regions and PDO regions. There aren’t very many good analogs to this configuration at all. I’m still being pessimistic but that’s probably just me not wanting to set myself up for a disappointment.  I could see a scenario where this year does not behave like a typical Nina. 

Man, after stuff not working the way it does...it would be nice to have a GOOD "this didn't behave the way it should have" happen...shoot, stupid weak nino of 2018-19 didn't behave the way we it should have, so any good fluke would balance it out! 

59 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Agreed.  It's been said many times, this should be a wake-up call to those not practicing a healthy lifestyle.  Some just want to ignore that and point fingers at other things. 

Maybe because there are other things? Yes, obesity increases your risk for a lot of things, no doubt. But it's not like it's just obese people lying in the ICUs or worse. It's not like previously healthy people aren't getting seriously ill. So going too far on this end of the argument just becomes too much of a convenient generalization (no doubt used to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic)

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

WDI 

Somebody call me? 

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think that looks like a few years ago when we were in the screw zone during a la Nina. We missed north and south that year.

And what's really frustrating is that we had to roll a nina AGAIN...twice in 4 years...right after a neutral year where the AO/NAO was record positive, smh Man I hope we can fluke/anomaly something this year...because I'm wondering if, with a nina this strong (or is it moderate), it won't leak over into the following winter as well...(can't imagine the numbers of the winter following a la nina are spectacular)

So where you say we are hear in Baltimore? Have we peaked or is there more to come?

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I saw El Paso is doing some kind of stay at home thing.

The spring type of closures should be a last resort.  I think you have to target restrictions to higher risk places (sucks for them) and see how that goes.

I would hope that this time around...with better testing than the Spring, we are in a better position to do more targeted lockdowns if necessary. Feels like the combination of us flying blind and still not knowing what we were dealing with led to the bigger shutdowns...

23 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah gotta keep the bullshit story going. All you need to do is visit any comment section of Facebook or Twitter. There are literally tons of people who think this will go away after the election.

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah that seems like a popular theory... that it will go away.  The virus obviously won't just go away and we should hope that the media coverage won't go away either as that would just result in more complacency.

And I don't get this...It takes a certain kind of...thinking, to believe this. To ignore everything...and instead then believe it's all some global conspiracy against Trump...I don't know what to call that, smh

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

They are in a difficult position made borderline impossible by their inaction and failure at the start of this. Much of the developed world struggles...but some countries clearly had better approaches to keep it from becoming as dire. It was the strategy (or lack therof) at the beginning that put us in a worse position...so them now throwing up their hands and saying "eh, it is what it is" to try and absolve themselves from responsibility doesn't quite work, imo

They are in a difficult position made borderline impossible by their inaction and failure at the start of this. Much of the developed world struggles...but some countries clearly had better approaches to keep it from becoming as dire. It was the strategy (or lack therof) at the beginning that put us in a worse position...so them now throwing up their hands and saying "eh, it is what it is" to try and absolve themselves from responsibility doesn't quite work, imo

23 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

I'll go ahead and add the full quote.   This administration was in an impossible position, and has had ups and downs.

“We’re not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation efforts,”

They are in a difficult position made borderline impossible by their inaction and failure at the start of this. Much of the developed world struggles...but some countries clearly had better approaches to keep it from becoming as dire. It was the strategy (or lack therof) at the beginning that put us in a worse position...so them now throwing up their hands and saying "eh, it is what it is" to try and absolve themselves from responsibility doesn't quite work, imo

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z gfs para

Wouldn't this go in the other thread?

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

988 landfall on the GFS 

Man! We gonna see this tick west to the same dang spot again? COME ON!!

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see the similarities. And while 2000 was one of the best snowfall Nina’s in our area I also think expecting a repeat of that 2 week stretch in January is risky. We torched with no chance at snow the entire rest of that winter.  What if that short period of blocking didn’t happen. Or what if we simply didn’t get lucky and nothing came of it. I tend to think of the outcome that season as more lucky than good. A repeat could end up a disaster. Please convince me otherwise though. I could use some optimism. 

Err....2020 chaos leading to us fluking into something?  But seriously though, do we have much other choice but to hope for fluke(s) in a nina?

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks! I've talked to many who work in the medical field and they ALL say the same thing...im fine, this is totally normal to have minor issues linger for weeks. Thats whats so crazy about this virus imo. The longevity, not the severity. I had a total of about 10 days that id consider "bad". But were talking 3.5 weeks and im still not 100%. So realistically its possible that I will go 4-5 weeks before im totally myself (God willing no more LOL) despite only 10 days of it being really bad.

Yeah the "long haul syndrome" is another part of this where there is still much to be learned...praying that you don't have any lingering effects and can be 100% again--glad to hear you are recovering!

10 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Ironic that this is now growing at a faster rate, just about two weeks after the President told us not to fear COVID, no?

And even more ironic that we see over 80,000 cases right after he, once again, said that we're "rounding the corner" repeatedly last night, smh There's trying to be "positive" and then just continuously speaking an alternate reality. It just makes things even more frustrating

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Pretty amazing little hurricane. A shallow tropopause with cold pool aloft under minimal shear. Core of hurricane positioned perfectly under the small anticyclone, which is of course positioned perfectly in the middle of a large-scale upper trough. Marginal 26-27°C SSTs is more than enough to drive significant lapse rates and core convection. I still didn't expect a major. But I'm not surprised. Ophelia did as much even with cooler heat content but had an even shallower tropopause / cooler dam aloft. Just gotta have the right atmospheric setup at higher latitudes late in the season. That being said, Epsilon has probably peaked. Arguably the prettiest hurricane of the season.

Didn't think this season had an eye like that in it, haha (kinda funny how it's been so active yet sloppy in shape overall) Very nice!

1 hour ago, TradeWinds said:

It always has a storm > 300 hrs. I had patio work done in Aug and kept a lot of things inside. I'm putting them all back outside this weekend. Door is shut IMHO for CONUS landfall. I believe I read 5 landfalls in Nov since 1850. 

Are you forgetting what year this is?  Would not put it past 2020 AT ALL, lol

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.

Was actually referring to the solar minimum 

3 minutes ago, frd said:

With the amount of busted winter forecasts the last 2 to 3 years I wouldn't jump to any conclusion.  Solar minimum might be included in the current grouping of crazy indices such as the QBO, MJO wamer phase, and others. 

Yeah I don't think we can call it "snake oil" unless it doesn't yield any results this year. But if we manage a blocked miracle or two that somehow gets us to at least 18" then it still counts in my book  

7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

There's no escaping the disaster that will be the 2020-21 winter.

Only magical escape routes...this being 2020 and the last "history" trend that hasn't officially failed yet in the solar minimum  Both of those things don't deliver then yeah...lol

But it's funny...with stuff being so whacky since 2016, with the rug being pulled out with bad surprises of things not working the way they looked to be in the pre-winter forecasting...you wonder why we couldn't get a good surprise for a change...with stuff not work the way it appears to be right now, lol 

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Sweden... yes, Sweden, is talking about cracking down

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/months-minimal-covid-19-containment-163425168.html

WOW...lol Sweden...the biggest used and abused excuse for covid lackadaisicalism....is now starting to rethink things? I'm just sorry it took their their mortality rate per to jump up to 3rd worst (and a 137% increase in cases over the last month) to do it! It must be getting worse over there...

1 hour ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

This event will go down as one of the most under looked and underrated convective events in severe weather history.

I can believe it...I guess if it weren't for all the other 2020 chaos going on, it may have gotten more notice!

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Some decent color here now...highlighted by the early morning sun in this photo.

Not sure how colorful it will be here though, given we have had 30+ inches of rain in the last 3 months. Seems like plenty of leaves are coming down already.

Think it'll be the same here in the city/Baltimore county?

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

How about we improve quality of life by permanently implementing mask wearing? If it helps prevent all viruses, then let's go. 

And that's something you can do without doing full-on March 2020 lockdowns...See, explain this to me: If mask wearing is the thing that could help diminish the spread and help to prevent the very lockdowns that people don't want...why in the world are folks up here saying "Eh, don't make people wear masks" yet they say "We can't lock everything down!" 

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Significant HL blocking can mitigate a lot of bad elsewhere. Unfortunately we are on a bad run in that dept.

I suppose we are due. 

You rang?