Maestrobjwa

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When have I said it’s not a big concern?  I’ll make these statements.
 

1) If this pac base remains it will be really hard to get consistent snow in this area. The last 5 years are very typical of what we should expect in this pac regime. It can snow but it will be slim pickings and storms will be few and far between. 

2) I can’t say for sure how much is cyclical and how much is “you know what”. There are some logical possibilities on how warming has made this worse. I’ve mentioned the changes in the typical SST profile in the IO and western PAC favoring convection in hostile locations for cold here AND the expansion of the pac Hadley cell as possible warming related contributing factors.  But I can’t prove anything. 
 

3) should I say this everyday 5 times?  Scream it’s never going to snow again and cry?  Or do what I do and simply get over it and look for whatever opportunities we can manage despite the crappy base state that seems stuck. 

Looking up articles about that dang Hadley Cell I'm growing to despise...I guess this "poleward expansion" isn't something that just...reverses itself?

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE @Ji this is why I think there is more to this than Nina. The closest example of what we’re dealing with now was actually 2019 which was a Nino!  

Truth is this has been a consistent pac issue for 5 years through 2 neutral, 1 Nino and 2 Nina’s. This year it’s just even more out of control!  

I notice your exclamation points=worry on your end...lol And you're trying your best not to saw the w (warming) word...

Pac issue is a legit concern for future snow...5 years? Tell me why we shouldn't be concerned when we've seen no improvement, or why it's illogical to say that this could be a bigger problem. I'm telling ya...I think a mod-strong El Niño might be that last experiment to see if that's the one ENSO that can overcome this persistent problem. If that doesn't work...ruh-roh.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2015. 2016 was bad for a different reason though. We got the typical Nino north pac trough but in typical super Nino style it was too strong and encroached on the west coast too much and this flooded the Continent with mild pac puke much of that winter. 
 

2017 to now the dominant pac base state has been a central pacific ridge which is bad. Our best way to offset that would be the HL but right now the pac is sooooo bad, literally the worst EVER coming up…that’s it’s just a no win no matter what else is in our favor. 

So it's been bad for 5 consecutive years...hm...would like to see if that's happened before...

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pacific was REALLY good and the AO wasn’t a train wreck that would work. But the NAO would work if the pac wasn’t flaming poop also. It’s all a balancing act. Fact is it the AO is raging positive or the pac is hot poo we probably aren’t snowing in either scenario. Even when we scored in 2014 @ 2015 absent a great Atlantic it wasn’t garbage. There was often ridging over the top onto the AO domain in 2014. 2015 we had a displaced PV suppressing on the Atlantic side.  We can’t score when either is a hot mess on wheels. We need one to be good and the other not to be a floating flaming dumpster fire. 

How long has it been since the Pacific was actually good/not too bad?

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol. You might be 10-4 we’re it not for two decisions that I call dumb. Not mildly dumb. 100% dumb. You have a good team, maybe the best kicker in history yet you decide “hey, let’s roll the dice and gamble the whole game in one play”. Dumb. He can try and justify it any way he wants … but in reality he can’t. It’s ego.

Unfair assessment. Literally on the sideline with the players talking to them about it...that's not ego. Harbs is the opposite of ego--which is one of the many reasons why the players love him. Now if you accuse him of anything it's not trusting the secondary against Ben or Rodgers. No guarantee you get the ball back on the coin toss. You think the stoppin' Rodgers again? 

I think against the Steelers it was about not having Humphrey--I don't think we stop Ben in OT. Second time was a hit questionable...but I question the play design more than the decision to go for 2.

5 minutes ago, TSG said:

The high latitudes are warming much faster than the equator so I think it's more likely to disrupt what we know as the base state than to give us more regular Nino conditions.

How do the high latitudes affect whether the ENSO is nina or Nino? Or is it more about how high latitude warming affects the atmospheric response?

I remember folks saying the 2018-19 weak Niño never "coupled" to the atmosphere. Is that an example of what you're referring to?

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

never bet against a la nina pattern in a la nina lol. big ass SE ridge...gulf of mexico shut down...dry..warm and boring. Of course we cant even get Nino anymore...i thought global warming(climate change--assuming its not a hoax) would give us more Nino

Ya know I had asked a question awhile ago about why warming wouldn't equate to warmer waters in the ENSO...but then someone rather sharply brought to my attention that enso state--water temperatures--are basically wind-driven. 

Now my question then is...if trade winds and such drive enso, I wanna know why they've been more nina the the last 6 years than nino.

Starting to think that during "pattern chase" times, it might be better to step away from here. Looking at pattern prognostications every day when the immediate 1-2 weeks has nothing going on can be bad for the snow-loving brain...

Heh...I know we got the panic room, but I've been saying for awhile that we oughta have a thread to talk about literal coping mechanisms. When it's going bad, some (including me) don't always handle it well. Winters would be happier if it didn't depend so much on snow.

Ya could learn how to be content in snow or out of snow...and enjoy the snow when it comes...but that there is the hard part. Some on here have figured out the secret...but I know I'm still working on it...(obviously).

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll admit not having the expertise to necessarily parse this accurately. Maybe someone else can add value. But one of the things driving the colder expected pattern was that mjo phase 7 is cold in a Nina. However, the soi has been tanking and today is at -27, more Nino than Nina. Just pointing this out because phase 7 in a Nino is warm and looks a lot like what we’re seeing.  However, I know the mjo also affects the soi so…

Now am I over-generalizing...or do the front half of nina winters tend to be more cold than warm?

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The Ravens give them competition of the dumb front.

Not even close. We're 8-6 despite everything...that alone says a lot

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So, when the pattern changes around new year what sort of storms could we see? Would it be primarily storms that cut to our north like what the GFS has for the majority of it's run? Or costals/clippers? Or do we simply not know at all and which would be best for us? Either way with a cold block in place any storm should have a decent chance of scoring right? I mean if it is a clipper pattern than we score with cold smoke snow, if it is cutters than we get a front end thump. If we get costals then we should be fine as well. Just happy that from people who understand it that the pattern looks good and is not being kicked down the road and is at near peak climo. Of course we could still fail.

In response to this part...I definitely would not say any storm--especially not in a nina, lol Coastals tend to be Miller B's in this ENSO state, unfortunately. Better to expect what we saw back in February--and perhaps we can get some front end.

Now yeah a clipper pattern can work in a nina (I think). But there are other elements that occur in the short term that we just can't nail down  this far out. Fwiw, my developing philosophy (at least for this winter) is just to always have the current enso state and it's tendencies in mind.

39 minutes ago, GATECH said:

I like to look at this whenever I get depressed about the weather….best…map…ever….so much pink and red where it matters

Beautiful. I wish I had saved some screenshots!

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Curious to know, since I'm not good with historic analogs, what was the winter of 1940-41 like for DC and Baltimore?

Kinda average to a little above up here...23.1"...and 12 of that came in March, lol

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It would be nice to get snow and cold. But that almost never happens. So I’m sure Christmas will be just fine if the weather is what it typically is. 

I thought mid 40s were a little more common? Median?

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Some unnecessary panic up in here today. Nothing has changed on the means.

Wanting cold and snow for Xmas is cute and sweet and romantic and all, but it doesn't happen too often in this area. 

And here I was thinking low to mid 40s on Christmas Day wasn't too much to ask...lol

13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah. Just a few days ago it looked like Christmas Eve/Christmas was going to be fairly cold…not anymore 

It ain't right, I'm telling ya...

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Euro's got 60s on Christmas.  Record is 72 at DCA.  Let's burn it down.

You've gotta be kidding me, smh Feels like we can't get a dang cold Christmas anymore! (although last year at least it got cold behind that front)

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 Can't see this team going on a Super Bowl run like they did after dumping Cam lol. Just too beat up.

I wouldn't be so sure--we have enough to catch fire. I mean...we are still somehow in first place despite all of this...so ya never know! (Ironically December 2012 also had a three game losing streak in Weeks 13,14, and 15, lol) I mean not saying for sure...but just that the ingredients are there for us to catch fire if it's meant to be!

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Good read for Ravens fans. Yeah the OL is a bit of a mess, and they have no legit RBs, but Roman still insists on going with run heavy formations, limiting the passing game- despite major upgrades at WR.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/12/16/22838532/ravens-offense-issues-greg-roman-lamar-jackson

Yep. I'm still wishing Harbs pulls a 2012 and fires him before the playoffs...this is ridiculous

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Probably won’t be a popular sentiment, but if it isn’t going to snow, I want this day every day.

Heretic! Heretic!!!

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm at the point where if we can even manage a string of clippers that give us advisory level events with BN temps, it'll be a win. I mean, snow on snow is just as good.

Hey, that's how we got like 18" in a nina a few years ago (2017-18 I believe). I think that year schools used all their snow days because all the little events happened during rush hour! Was pretty funny actually, lol

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Another great thread from @griteater

upshot:

 

Hmm...Is it wrong that I wish we woulda had this NOT in a nina? Lol Cause ya kinda know that even with tanking AO/NAO we'll still be fighting enso...but perhaps, as psu mentioned in his outlook, this means a still below average but not as crappy nina. But dang what we wouldn't have given for that a couple years ago!

14 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

At least we still get Torchmas?

Now see...I didn't have any expectations for precip next week...but dang if we get another torched Christmas...BOO! I'm hoping we can just pull of a good ol' fashioned 40-45 degree Christmas, for crying out loud.

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Of course, but it’s always nice to see the blue over us. 

Our responses to fantasy snow are interesting...When we see it on a run, it's almost like, for a moment, we can almost feel it happening. That excitement/the good feels...I guess that explains the angst over the digital "snow" being "taken away" in a future run. A strange psychology...lol

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Well the GFS is interesting.  
 

No it ain't! Don't worry the squash foot is a-comin...euro run from earlier probably has the right idea.