Maestrobjwa

50 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Translation?

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Perfect, lol

@psuhoffman And also when you have some time...could you run through exactly what factors made 1995-96 do what it did?

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is pretty much how it went in 2017-18. The early Jan period was memorable for folks in the eastern MA, esp right along the coast with the blizzard. The snow also stayed around for a week or so with the cold, before moderating a bit.

 

Ya know...as we were going through the doldrums of last winter...I always wondered what's worse: A winter like last year that torches the entire time, or a la nina winter like that one that can break ya heart with the "we're too far southwest" close misses. 

I don't know man...I'm tempted to pick the torch, because I get nearby snow envy...but at least la ninas can still be cold sometimes (and scenery snow isn't completely out of the equation)

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WeatherBell canceled winter.   Plus 3 above average temps and less than 75% snowfall.  Worst MA maps I have ever seen from them.  Hopefully as wrong as they were last year again.

How can a forecast be for warmer than last winter? Lol

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems. 

Well if they're nothing to get excited about, why the heck would they be called "WOO!!!!" storms? 

59 minutes ago, ovweather said:

Yes. Obviously there are exceptions for certain fields that do require in-person instruction, but for the majority of basic college courses, doing only on-line instruction right now is very doable and will drastically cut down on the number of students on campus interacting face to face.

I'm not advocating that we do differently...just pointing out the exception that's all

32 minutes ago, ovweather said:

You actually make a good point. Many colleges offer online courses / degrees, so there isn’t much need for in-person courses, unless of course it’s something hands on like the medical field, etc. But most of the basic college courses can easily be attended on-line.

College-aged kids want to be on campus for the whole “college experience” (parties, etc) that isn’t essential. For younger kids, going to in-person school provides a learning discipline that is very hard to recreate at home, unless the parents are highly motivated. But for parents of grade school kids, having to home school them isn’t what they signed up for when deciding to have kids, so it’s a massive inconvenience for parents. Personally, I’m glad I have no kids and don’t have to worry about it.

I'd say the one area of college that would feel the most impact of virtual vs in-person is the performing arts--i.e. music and theater majors. I majored in music--and I can imagine not being able to have private lessons, ensembles, and performances (particularly the degree recitals required) must be a pain. Zoom can only get ya so far in that! Lol

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

My scientific analysis of that sst chart

 

Sweet mercy dude...I must inform ya that emetophobia is a real thing...how do I block this GIF? Lol

8 hours ago, Jonger said:

Oh, there's definitely a threshold where I would worry, but we haven't gotten close to that level yet. 

Just out of curiosity...what would be that threshold?

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, I didn’t understand the correlation he made to the summer NAO either. I think what makes more sense is what they mentioned in the New England forum....That this shift to -AMO, with the associated ice cold waters in the North Atlantic, causes a positive feedback loop into the +NAO and allows it to sustain itself. As far as the AO, no offense, but I pay no mind Judah Cohen at all anymore with his SAI. Using Siberian snowcover to predict the AO has been a bust how many times now? Also, how many times have we heard “low solar/solar minimum, -AO winter incoming!”? That’s been another bust. My honest opinion, I think the arctic sea ice melt is actually re-enforcing the +NAO/+AO and making it worse

Not that many times, actually...only last year iirc--because we didn't start having the extended low solar until then. So technically...I'd imagine that still has one more winter to have an effect before we declare that broken as well, lol (and by comparison, we might have more successful examples of low solar working than Siberia!). For me...the last three solar minimums producing warrants one more chance...

7 hours ago, Windspeed said:

TAFB/NHC has issued a code yellow for a weak disturbance near the North Carolina coastline that is forecast to move ENE in the coming days with 20/30 probs. It does have weak mid-level vorticity and could take on more tropical characteristics in the coming days as the system moves out into the open Atlantic.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical 
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move 
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of 
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several 
days.  This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves 
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Man I didn't even know that could happen there, lol (of course I'm just an amateur hobbyist when it comes to this stuff!)

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

If I read you right, you're calling for 2 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane the remainder of the season? I mean that's fine but you realize it's August 12th? Climatological favorability across the basin doesn't normally kick in until around August 20th-26th even in active years. I think a lot of folks fail to realize how quickly an unfavorable synoptic and environmental pattern can transition to favorable.

Besides...we don't have to look too far back to see that: just look how 2017 turned on a dime! Here we are looking up at the eclipse...and the next thing you know (like literally starting the next week)...Harvey, Irma.....eventually Maria, and others! I don't even know much about how stuff happens in the tropics...but that year was enough to convince me about how quickly things can change!

36 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

If Josephine forms in the next few days out of 95L, it's probably not going to survive much beyond the Lesser Antilles, regardless of short-term intensity changes. The outbreak of tropical activity and convection in the EPAC is going to really ramp up westerly upper level flow across the Caribbean and WATL as TUTTs form and retrograde. In fact, whatever might develop in the Atlantic over the next 10-12 days may struggle with shear. However, that being said, the MJO phases favorably over the basin the last week of August while coinciding with a sharp decrease in shear as the EPAC goes quiet. Perhaps a little sooner. But for now we seem to have some ammo against long-trackers over the next week. We still have to watch though in case some poor struggling sheared disturbance happens to find itself NE of the Antilles and an upper ridge builds.

Since apparently it's mandatory to always factor in the fact that it's 2020...bet on this happening at least once between now and late August, lol

6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Pretty terrible situation just a mile down the street from here with the explosion. We were playing our morning backgammon game, heard the explosion, the house shook, and I went out and walked around the house because it felt that close.

Oh dang you were that close?? Glad your house didn't sustain any damage! Man this has "dilapidated city infrastructure" written all over it, smh

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yes. Its a few, who are over emotional/hysterical, or simply trolls.

And you'd be somewhere between troll and objective.

And people react differently, dude...I call it snow loving. Hysterical is a feminizing term, tbh

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

We have the WDI on our side for NAO help. After 10 years it's got to break our way eventually right??

After last year I kinda gave up on that...lol I guess a tiny piece of me hopes the solar min will save something...but that's about the last "WDI" thing for me. As somebody said, we hit bottom solar earlier this year, and from here it only goes back up...so that...combined with the fact that swe saw no apparent positive effect from the low solar last year, I'd imagine this winter would be the last chance to see it. If we don't, then that "effect" might be broken like everything else seems to be, lol

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LR winter analysis is a slight step above astrology, IMO. You can definitely identify warning flags, but we are just so reliant on flukes during winter that it’s hardly worth grumbling about/taking anything too seriously.

Love the thread and the work though.

Is that always true, though? Still think that depends on the larger factors like ENSO and NAO and such. What bothers me is...if this becomes a new reality, we may have to rely on even MORE flukes than before! 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You seem a little hysterical.

You don't seem to be able to make a distinction between having a little fun with the situation, and serious discussion/speculation of the data we have in front of us.

Ohhh I see it alright....but as I said, it's bad enough to have the bad data in front of us. I don't get how poking fun of it and pretending to enjoy things going bad even more ain't salt in the wound.

We could be looking at the prospect of losing something in life we've all enjoyed (or at least seeing even less of it than before). So yeah, maybe I am a little reactive to it--but it sucks, plain and simple--no matter how low you set your expectations.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Do you ever pay attention here? Get a grip dude.

Well, am I wrong?

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just to add, that El Niño falls into the larger global warming picture. It shows we still have a lot to learn about weather overall and how it’s evolving now. If you look at the theories that *should* have resulted in colder winters; solar cycle, Siberian snowcover, sea ice loss, soil moisture, etc., they are just not working at all the last several winters, the question is why....

I was just wondering the same thing earlier today...Why does it feel like the Super Niño just flat-out broke things? Nothing has behaved right since!

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am simply in touch with reality.

There's a difference between being in touch with reality than acting practically giddy when things don't turn out well. That's why I'm wondering if you enjoyed snow in the first place. 

I don't think anybody's expectations are high by any means right now...so what's the point in pouring the salt in?

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong. 

Hey look, if it's gonna be true, at least we have plenty of time to grieve the bad winter before it actually gets here. Hopefully by then we can be numb to it. But really, I don't know if the lowest of low expectations would make the potential suckage any less depressing. It's like losing something in life you once enjoyed--you expect it isn't coming, but you still miss it all the same.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Are you applying to be a “helper” when The Panic Room reopens for reapin’ season?

Yeah @CAPE seriously...it's like you love putting salt in the wound, lol I'm wondering...do you not like snow, or do you love to troll?

6 hours ago, Powerball said:

Georgia Students Suspended for Sharing Viral Pictures of Packed School Hallway

Yeah I didn't quite understand that...suspended for voicing a legit concern?