Maestrobjwa

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GEFS mean

 

00z GEFS mean 

Wondering how much of this is noise vs. another bump nw...can't imagine it could go too much further? (Of course I'd like it to, lol)

Just now, yoda said:

QPF cut back slightly 

Oof! Sharp cut off. Gonna bet Baltimore just misses warning level accumulation again...lol (unless we get another bump)

Just now, Ji said:

The nw bump appears over on gfs

Yep...coulda used a tad more of it but hey, lol

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

We are breaking alot of rules. It dosent snow in nina...it dosent snow on first day of pattern change. It dosent snow in dc. We don't ever get favorable trends...

Yeah if this works out it's gonna be real weird!

12 minutes ago, Demeter said:

Moved this here, hope that’s ok. But I think that is one of the reasons I love this hobby so much. It’s so, so intricate. 

Yes--I mean it's something that can put ya in awe while simultaneously driving you nuts, lol (especially for us snow lovers) I mean it is like the most intricate machine with so many moving parts that can all influence each other in many different ways. And then you have things on the macro...and then the micro with what happens during each storm. It's pretty incredible!

Ya know, people always quip about how they'd "love to have a job where I can be paid to be wrong half the time"...not realizing how much goes into making those predictions! The above...THAT is where the expertise of meteorology come in: trying to make sense of all the moving parts, and put that into a 2-3 minute forecast, lol

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Maybe we can call them "muggles".

It's meteorology, so we'll call them meegles 

31 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Yeah definitely understand the position they are in, they don't want another March 2013. I would not want to be a TV meteorologist right now 

I'm not sure the intricacies (and uncertainties) of meteorology will ever be fully appreciated by the public--mainly because most folks can't see how much chaos there is in predicting weather! (But perhaps that's is a conversation for another thread though, lol)

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Definitely need a couple more bumps. How would y’all feel about 50 miles?

Depends...I'm geographically challenged, but as long as Baltimore is in blue/deep blue, sure! 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

You lookin for me?

And he appears! Good to see ya again good sir!

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Jan 2010, did more than this is less than 18 hours

Ah you mean that late January surprise 5 inches a week before the big ones--yeah that was pretty awesome

Good gloppity...Is a shift like this this close to gametime a bit unusual?

Kaboom goes the GFS, lol

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hang on is that the old FV3 GFS?

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

I suspect the NAM will start to migrate towards the GFS camp

You'd think...then again what was that storm last year where the NAM remained stubborn yet kinda inside 48 and ended up being right? Lol Although with the other guidance ticking in the right direction at this range (as opposed to staying put), that would be a bit strange.

13 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

What's up next? NAM, Icon, GFS, Euro? 

NAM in about an hour, followed by ICON Around 10, then GFS, EURO

Yeah I mean we've seen that in the cases where the euro caves...it's usually gradual, lol So I'd take any improvement as a plus!

46 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I'm right near Baltimore, and I do recall a VERY COLD stretch of weather at the very end of December/beginning of January in 2017/2018. It didn't escape the 20s for like 10 consecutive days. I think there were a couple days in the teens as well. I specifically remember it because a major lake nearby froze completely over. Honestly the last memorable winter event I can remember. 

Yeah I remember the same! It was cold enough to bust the pipes at the church I was the music director at at the time (that was a huge mess that took the church the rest of the year to clean up) It was downright bone-chilling--awesome wind chills too! But that was the most recent stretch of artic cold we had...so it's been a little while!

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF btw this is the scenario to test “can we get cold”. If we get a PV split, pna/epo ridge with the cold currently built up in Canada and don’t get some serious cold period from it…then it’s time to just give up. 

Agreed...Seeing some legit, serious cold would be a huge relief! At least it would mean things aren't completely broken, lol

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Watching the models trend but still stay SE us like twisting a loose piece of skin off of your cuticle it's painful but you keep twisting because it kind of hurts but kinda feels good. Then it rips off and it just ****ing hurts

I'm ashamed I related to this as much we I did, lol

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

RIP Betty White

Ah dang it...so sorry to hear that. So close to 100!!

Ya know with John Madden and Harry Reid passing earlier this week...I was just asking who the third person was gonna be (because in some years that's how it goes)...and here we are. She will be missed!

22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nina = southern slider/Beach blizzard. Save yourselves 

Yep...Especially in early January. Really strange how that seems to be a favored time period for this in ninas. Bomb cyclone happened then...lol And even the one anomalous 1996 hit was also in early January...just that that crazy...whatever it was made it work for us. But otherwise...you can almost bet on a nina beach snow in early January, lol

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

That's because of the snowfall prior to that night

Ah I see (didn't see that part...or I just intentionally ignored it to not spark any dreams, lol)

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

has DCA at 16/17 degrees 06z SAT lol (00z EURO)

Hey if we can't get much else I'll take some bitter cold...it has been quite awhile! (two years, I believe!)

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My father passed away a few hours ago. Thank you all for your kind words and support the last few weeks.

I am so, so sorry, friend...will pray for you and your family.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted???

I'm content with it looking good...even if other things line up to don't help us this time. It's better to see it can still relax sometimes instead of being non-stop the way it has been!