Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. 

And you said suppression was the most likely fail? 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Next

 

few minutes will be big 

Mods! Psu is trying to set the forum on fire...

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 

And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already)

Edit: Psu answered my question, lol

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution. 

So I'm wondering how long it'll be until we get consensus on the coastal track...I mean the euro and gfs can't be at this stalemate too much longer!

47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

PD2 mixed far inland.  I sleeted for hours.  Would have been half a foot more 

Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely a few members that stall and dump this run 

Ha...ha...(insert toilet joke here)

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn.  Now if one of those others move, then yeah....

And it would be a bit mind- boggling if the euro or cmc would cave, wouldn't it? I mean how much of a window can we reasonably expect this divergence to continue? I woulda thought is the Euro was gonna cave we'd start seeing that today, no?

GFS doesn't know what the heck it wants to do with that low...lol Jumping all over the place! "Dance LP dance"

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday.  Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want.   I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen).  The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes.

I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.  

That was what I was looking to see as well...got the transfer...thermals we can (hopefully) ignore!

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now. 

Then it needs to get it's but in gear

Now...if everything else this month has basically gotten squashed...why not here with the more northern guidance, (possibly transfer included) possibly shifting south...this time into better position...as we get closer? I mean, shoot...January trend ftw? Lol

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Ugh.

Why do I get the feeling the Euro is gonna do that thing is does...where it caves to lesser models, but only when it shows us getting big snow first.

It it does that this will probably be the first time it did both of those things...in the same week, smh Let's hope not...that would just be trolling, lol

You'd think with a system like this...just getting warning criteria (5") is not unreasonable to ask...c'mon! Still ain't hit that bar here since 2016 (since the Jan 2019 stoem decided to be a troll and stop at 4.8" in Baltimore)...so that will be my minimum for this!

9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Snow tends to changeover to rain when the temperature is 25 degrees.

Heck of an ice storm...

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Even while messing the bed it stepped toward the Euro in the previous runs. I will say it continues to step.

Man it sure as heck did for tomorrow's miss when we DIDN'T want it to...so c'mon GFS: Get da steppin'!!!!

19 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We sure need some kind of help. 

Help? Why do we need help? We're sitting up here at nearly 2:30 in the morning looking at a computer model....perfectly normal! 

9 minutes ago, fourseasons said:

If it helps, I'm from Canada and I was wondering what kind of sad Ys are those for the Canuck airport locations.  They look like Vs.

Wait those are Y's? Lol

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but if the further north primary idea of the gfs/Cmc is correct it’s a split threat. WAA wave gets suppressed coastal forms late. We’re stuck in between.  Always something waiting to steal out snow man. 

So we need the suppression on the primary to get it just south enough to form when we need it?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Cmc at 120 

Man it took me 10 seconds to find MD on that thing, lol *gets dizzy*

@psuhoffman Thanks for the explanation! And yes, I haven't forgotten that your fret level runs parallel with the snow potential, lol So in that case...fret away!  It's like your inner Ji comes out and Ji's inner psu comes out (well kinda)

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great.  If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy.  I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south.  I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south. 

So why is the suppression such a threat (again) here, if the blocking is relaxing? I'm not getting the moving parts here and what has been causing all the squashing we've been seeing lately...

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure. 

South trend burns us on Thursday...so I guess before we get comfortable we have to see just how suppressed things get. Perhaps we should be concerned if 0z makes another south trend?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment.  That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts  in front and on top.  We see no such countermanding features this time.  But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe!  

So I guess at 0z we just wanna see a hold? Oh dear...don't get invested, don't get invested, don't get invested....ahh!

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Cray-cray?

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I won’t believe it’s real until Bob Chill pops in.  

I've always wondered if he's just been waiting for the next legit storm to actually hit us (or be knocking on the door a day or two out) before he pops up again, lol