Maestrobjwa

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LR winter analysis is a slight step above astrology, IMO. You can definitely identify warning flags, but we are just so reliant on flukes during winter that it’s hardly worth grumbling about/taking anything too seriously.

Love the thread and the work though.

Is that always true, though? Still think that depends on the larger factors like ENSO and NAO and such. What bothers me is...if this becomes a new reality, we may have to rely on even MORE flukes than before! 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You seem a little hysterical.

You don't seem to be able to make a distinction between having a little fun with the situation, and serious discussion/speculation of the data we have in front of us.

Ohhh I see it alright....but as I said, it's bad enough to have the bad data in front of us. I don't get how poking fun of it and pretending to enjoy things going bad even more ain't salt in the wound.

We could be looking at the prospect of losing something in life we've all enjoyed (or at least seeing even less of it than before). So yeah, maybe I am a little reactive to it--but it sucks, plain and simple--no matter how low you set your expectations.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Do you ever pay attention here? Get a grip dude.

Well, am I wrong?

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just to add, that El Niño falls into the larger global warming picture. It shows we still have a lot to learn about weather overall and how it’s evolving now. If you look at the theories that *should* have resulted in colder winters; solar cycle, Siberian snowcover, sea ice loss, soil moisture, etc., they are just not working at all the last several winters, the question is why....

I was just wondering the same thing earlier today...Why does it feel like the Super Niño just flat-out broke things? Nothing has behaved right since!

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am simply in touch with reality.

There's a difference between being in touch with reality than acting practically giddy when things don't turn out well. That's why I'm wondering if you enjoyed snow in the first place. 

I don't think anybody's expectations are high by any means right now...so what's the point in pouring the salt in?

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong. 

Hey look, if it's gonna be true, at least we have plenty of time to grieve the bad winter before it actually gets here. Hopefully by then we can be numb to it. But really, I don't know if the lowest of low expectations would make the potential suckage any less depressing. It's like losing something in life you once enjoyed--you expect it isn't coming, but you still miss it all the same.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Are you applying to be a “helper” when The Panic Room reopens for reapin’ season?

Yeah @CAPE seriously...it's like you love putting salt in the wound, lol I'm wondering...do you not like snow, or do you love to troll?

6 hours ago, Powerball said:

Georgia Students Suspended for Sharing Viral Pictures of Packed School Hallway

Yeah I didn't quite understand that...suspended for voicing a legit concern? 

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE

Other than 1996 you have to go WAY back to get another Nina of any kind that ended up better than about normal snowfall in the DC/Balt corridor. 

How far back we talkin'? Lol

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Now hang on...how would this mix with a La Nina? Aren't ninas cold and suppressive like 2017-18? (Have there been any warm ninas?) How does a SE ridge like this...mix with a nina? Anomalous la nina winter fun? 

Now I could very well be oversimplifying, of course...In my brain I'm just remembering the visuals of the parade of HP's in the middle of the country, suppressed storm/misses, seeing all the deep blue pushing to the south... So I now I see the red (SE ridge) pushing that up...but I'll wait for @psuhoffman or anybody else to tell me why it's not that simple and/or doesn't work that way

21 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I sure miss the snowstorms myself. Staying up all night watching the snow fall past the streetlights and studying the snow drifts as they got deeper, wishing for "snow days" when I was kid, dreaming of being a meteorologist when I grow up. Even now at 60 years old, I still dream of being a meteorologist when I grow up.

Now in Florida I stay up all night waiting for an outflow boundary to kick up a thunderstorm outside with amazing lightning or follow a tropical system for a week hoping we get "almost" destructive winds and at least interesting storm surges and big waves. (Two weeks without power and A/C after Irma has me much more conservative than before).

Oh the hail storm in Colorado Springs in 1969 or 1970, what a thrill! Three feet of hail in our yard in August, the sound of the cashing and the roar I'll never forget. The flooding as it melted very quickly...

Several hurricanes and tropical storms, ice storms in Michigan, spring floods in Virginia, so on.

So many storms, so many happy memories.

Yea, I am a sicko.

 

 

We call ourselves people here  But seriously sir, getting a thrill out of extreme weather is probably much more common here than elsewhere, I'll bet!

25 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Kids typically aren't obese or have preexisting conditions. My son being an exception... he has type 1 diabetes and is insulin dependent. Even so, we have had numerous parents document their experiences and so far every child has been asymptomatic. 

But even so...if it turns out that children can spread it...even if it harms them less, are we okay with them contributing to increased transmission of the virus? And in particular...the teachers being susceptible to it? To me that's the bigger problem...but the frustrating part is the evidence is not clear as of yet. Prior to last month, it wasn't looking like they thought kids spread it. But now, over the last few weeks, you have two rather discouraging studies come out from S. Korea (saying that kids 10+ can spread it just like adults), and another talking about kids 5 and under having a higher viral load. And then you have the two summer camp incidents.

Now you mentioned suspicion about the reason for the pediatrician walk-back...I'm wondering if it's because of the research and incidents that I just mentioned!

33 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe... we get a storm like the December 9-10 2018 one. There was a ton of snow in Richmond and South, but it melted in three days. If we get one of those, I’m okay.

Edit: i know everyone rolls their eyes when they remember that storm, but just maybe it could happen. It was odd because only the really “dumb” models expected it, and no one listened.

Now is it me, or...did we just get unlucky on the trajectory on that one? @psuhoffman was that a product of the fast zonal flow...and that basically if it had started a little higher in latitude on the west coast (or wherever the storm started), we could've gotten it? Had it not been for the zonal flow...does the storm look different?

Ya know...it would help that...if we can't have deep snow anymore...I wish we could have ice storms like the south gets sometimes. Now THAT would be a nice consolation prize, lol Any chance the change in climate makes us more like that? 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A faster mid latitude jet would make it a lot harder to get the buckling and blocking we need. We are usually too far south for a zonal flow to work. Especially when that flow is dominated by pacific air blasting across.  As cape said there will still be variance within the mean and times it relaxes but if the expanded Hadley cell causing a tighter mid latitude gradient and thus an enhanced jet is a permanent fixture it would have a negative effect on our prospects for cold/snow. 

Ah, so the problem that seemed most evident in 2018-19 may keep haunting us, huh? (that sticks out in my mind because of the early Dec miss and the January storm that was "okay"). 

Aw man...from what you guys are saying...sounds like there's a possibility what we had in the best years may stay in the past. It's hard to face the prospect of not seeing the deep snow even 4-5 years apart. I gotta wonder if 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, and the Blizzard of 2016 were our deep snow "Swan Song". One of life's pleasures evaporates....and it's kinda sad. All through most of our lives (all of my brief 29 years anyway, lol)...ya knew that at least every 3-4 years you could look forward to having a great winter. That would make the crappier ones a little easier, and open up new anticipation the following year(s) Even if going forward we try to learn not to expect it...it'll still be kinda sad each year. It'll be like a joy of the past now missing.

P.S. If this is indeed our reality, I no longer associate the name "Hadley" with any positivity from now on, lol (although I did have a teacher with that name who was a positive influence, so that might save it, haha)

27 minutes ago, frd said:

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal.

Now hang on...so last winter was an El Niño, though? Thought it was neutral?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the panic room isn’t open yet I’ll post here.   This from typhoon tip wrt the expanding Hadley cells. 

“I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument.   The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll.  But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies.  This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies.  The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows.  We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. “

 

Translation: the pac firehose jet could continue for DECADES. Lol

 

Oh wow.....I mean...whoa. Now I hope there's something else that can off-set the pac firehose. Certainly we can still roll the dice with other elements each year?

(or else we'd have to cancel how many winters? Mercy. Is the snow equation that simple?) You'll have to break this down a bit..."fast atmosphere"? So how does that connect to the mediocrity we've been seeing post January 2016? Lack of coastal storms? Too warm? I'm a bit confused here

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There has been too much wandering away from virus talk into larger economic debates.  

I will close the thread if it doesn't stay more focused on the virus and its direct impacts.  

I do hope people behave in here...because this is the last surviving thread on the entire site!

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

lol

Pretty much

He parrots what other people say, but does it very very badly.

Hm...wondering if there will be any other past indicators we usually rely on will behave the same way? Like ENSO, for example...now 2017-18 certainly looked like a textbook La Nina (unfortunately) And 2015-16 still acted like a typical Super Niño...(which historically have had either one big storm or nothing at all). When a mod Niño finally comes around again...will it be have the same, I wonder?

And of course the solar part I always talk about...if that just comes and goes without any effect, that would also be a first...

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s been mentioned before but global warming over the past 15 years has really rendered old analogs useless. It’s a completely different climate now, than it was even 15 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40+ years ago. Global heat budgets have changed, jet streams have been altered, Hadley cells have been altered, feedbacks and ENSO circulations have changed, sea ice loss..... Use analogs from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, etc. at your own peril IMO

Dang...that would mean we basically don't have any analogs at all, lol

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

We’re on a downward trend! Still the amount of people without masks stuns me here in SC, but it’s much better than it was in May. Maybe the incoming blob of a tropical system can blow it out of out here

Knowing this year it'll probably just blow the germs virus around more!

But seriously...this hurricane season combined with corona...I'm just thinking of people being in shelters and such. Yikes

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. I think one of the keys will be what the QBO does in the fall, if it goes positive/westerly then it may be time to worry, especially if the -PDO, -AMO continues. As far as the solar cycle I’m not so sure it correlates to winter as well as some people had thought, same story with Siberian snowcover/SAI, just look at last winter....

I'm not so sure we can say that yet. Could be we might not know until winter 2021-22. There were certainly some instances of a delay...Even with the last solar minimum. We hit bottom in late 2008. But obviously, we didn't see the effect until a year later! And I'm wondering if, on the record, the bottom of the minimum only just happened this year? (in which case, not seeing a result this winter would make more sense)

Now, could the solar minimum no longer matter because of a changing climate? Sure. But if the historical "delay" is true...maybe we should wait longer.

3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

TD10 about to waste the best name on the entire 2020 list for a 40mph TS. Sad!

What name would that one be?

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Spanish

E-sah-E-as

Just why, man? They just had put that name on there with a pronunciation that half the media and others won't get right, lol

But here's a trick: Just think "pizza-pizza" from the Little Ceasar's commercial and you're good 

Wooo!!! Loudest thunder I've heard in a while!