Maestrobjwa

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Status quo for the Beltway crews...which is fine at this point.   Still a solid thump

And add to that the possibility of CAD being undermodeled (as it sometimes is)...and that's a pretty great run!!

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Sharper, more consolidated vort for Monday’s storm.  Hopefully translates into a monster 50/50.

Heck yeah...keep it ampin'!

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

If you set that as the bar you might as well make a reservation in The Panic Room. I wouldn't even lock in double digits up here and I don't have a quarter of the concerns imby. 

I think warning level is achievable. From there, it's gravy IMO. 

Warning level is my bar too...I haven't had one verify imby since 2016, so...I'd take 5-8"! I am curious about what the ceiling will be though...

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its because it has a "bomb" for Monday in relative terms.  Its like low 990s off NJ Monday

Looks like it follows the @psuhoffman theory! 

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lookin real juiced

Good!! Amp that baby up to help with Wednesday!

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

I know it's still early in the season and I am less than a weather amateur, but I know we have had several significant snowstorms just a couple of days after having 60's and 70's.  

Yeah he was being mostly sarcastic with that comment...lol

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The stronger CAD signature is massive and was shown on every model run this evening. Keep that working and let the UL pattern fall over the next succession of days. A lot to track and we haven't even touched the mesoscale. 

Could you elaborate a bit more (not that you haven't already done a lot elaborating of course!) about how the stonger CAD signature would impact on what you just mentioned about with the "warm nose" this run of the euro showed?

Just now, yoda said:

I'm fine with the 00z EURO run.  yeah, doesn't look like the CMC/GFS maps... but I am sure the EPS has a good amount of monster hits.  The storm is there... and 50-75 miles is all we need as @Yeoman said above for all to cash in

So this run was more about track than any other factor?

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I see a 1C layer in DC at both 925 and 850. Pretty close. 

Now with the 1035 high overhead...is the track what caused the slightly warmer solution?

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Wrong emoji!!!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs doesn’t quite get the heavy qpf far enough NW to intersect where it’s cold enough NW of the fall line. But it’s been clueless on this wave (as it was the wave last week that gave some light snow to southern VA). 
 

But I mean...at this point tho...according to your theory, shouldn't we be kinda rooting against a snowier solution for this wave anyway? Lol

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Amped honestly the whole h5 track of the initial system is not ideal even on runs that show a big hit. We need that monster 50/50 to offset that. Or we need the system to trend south with the track of the initial system. 

Uh...would you mind translating that a bit? Need what system to trend south of what now? Lol

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Living in Leesburg may actually payoff for once here. But per the other thread, a more amped Monday storm may ahve a correlation to a weaker/more progressive/warmer Wednesday storm, right? At least that is how I read it.

I think @psuhoffman was saying it was the opposite: that we want more amped to lower heights (still not entirely clear on what "heights" are, but I digress, lol). We want lower heights for a colder Wednesday system, I think.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It trended less amplified/south Monday and warmer Wed. There is an inverse correlation between the two waves. 

Oh come on...smh Then amp that that first baby up!!!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.  

Always something... So we basically don't want more snow out of the first wave?...

Just now, Amped said:

December 2013 we had a similar event. 4" in Frederick and rain in dc

Wait, was that the snowy Ravens-Vikings game with the epic finish?

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

DC metro walking the line as always.  

Anybody else see the silhouette of a face there? Like somebody off the Simpsons or Futurama or something, lol

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

sure is. hard to forget getting married with a 2 foot snowstorm raging outside

Was that 2009?

23 minutes ago, mappy said:

I've been told I need to loosen up and have more fun. So, I'm trying! 

Well I like it! Momma has to have fun too 

42 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard

Moderator, moderate thyself!! 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I had over 11".  That evening band stopped just a few miles east of me.  

Yep like I said...the southern chunk. It was a good HoCo MoCo DC event...we never got too much heavy banding up here.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area

Don't ya mean the southern chunj DC definitely...but Baltimore north? Fell just short (BWI literally measured 4.8"--so it was trolling with being .2 inches shy of verification, lol)

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where?

I was about to suggest the same thing. Getting a bit jumbled in here (but it's awesome to have that problem! )

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha. What a fun track. I ended up with 22” in DC.

Not to mention the easiest tracking ever...rock-steady agreement for like 7-8 days. Like...when does that ever happen? Lol It was like...okay, it's gonna snow, it's gonna snow big...get your shovels out--no doubts with that one!

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon is a decent hit Monday .

Howard county lollie bullseye 5.5 inches 

A bit of atmospheric memory on this one? Lol (thinking about how the southern regions got more rain lollies the last couple of months). Of course this snow greedy Baltimorian wants things to inch just a little further north!