Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast.

Now am I being weenish for still putting a little hope in this coming in colder than expected...or is that still on the table?

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

You mix for a time, then you be whacked really good by a band that develops along the 85H frontogenic placement. 850mb temps crash from ~+1C to -5C in 3 hrs and it rips for like 6 hrs before shutting off. 

What I'm still not getting is why the low on these runs is tucking into the coast...what's making it do that, and what in the overall setup do we need to make it NOT do that? Lol

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am 33 with a forecast low of 36. This may very well surprise us. 

Would be awesome if this foreshadows colder than advertised for Wednesday 

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It was basically a hold at best. Not sure I get the excitement either.

It's better because the low is but more off the coast...and it stays colder with less mixing closer to I-95, it seems

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Katie once upon a time had a link you could follow to check for sure - I tried to look up Lauraville neighborhood for you but could not find it. I think from when I lived over there off of Harford Rd. in Hamilton before I move over here my elevation was around 225. 

Yeah @nw baltimore wx just gave me a great link...got me around 264'

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/lpps/Baltimore/

Hey that's a nice tool--thanks! So looks like I'm like 267'...lol

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Mt Washington is probably the best spot in the city . 300'?

My old hood was like 100' in ne Bmore

Now I live near Good Sam, Morgan State...what if any elevation is that? Lol

Well baltimore city peeps @nw baltimore wx and @North Balti Zen...here we are again literally with line running right through our respective neighborhoods...think we crack the 5" mark for the first time since 2016? 

40 minutes ago, mappy said:

I usually follow the zones LWX has, they split all the counties that run along the line into two parts. Baltimore County splits at the Hereford Zone line, so a little north of the actually fall line but close enough.

Actually if ya really wanna be OCD with it...since I live about 10-15 mins south of Towson, I guess I'd clear the dotted line...but not sure how much different it is from the other side, lol

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

I usually follow the zones LWX has, they split all the counties that run along the line into two parts. Baltimore County splits at the Hereford Zone line, so a little north of the actually fall line but close enough.

Actually if ya really wanna be OCD with it...since I live about 10-15 mins south of Towson, I guess I'd clear the dotted line...but not sure how much different it is from the other side, lol

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

95 is a good place to start, but usually runs like this 

Love how my corner of Northeastern Baltimore city is literally dotted, lol

Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling.

6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!).  But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps!  My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!!  LOL!!  Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my cataract removed 

Fixed it for ya pops 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Cobb data from the NAM 18Z run is just silly. Gives MRB 4 inches of snow in one hour. 32 total. 

Now what is Cobb data?

14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 

Interestkng theory...anybody have thoughts on this?

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

850 looks to be the warm layer.  925 and surface stay below freezing for the duration IMBY.  So snow-sleet-snow, which is what I always expected. Definite banding signature on the back end around 6z that moves through to the east after that.  But still a pretty nice front end before mixing for many...3-6"?  

So...what we gotta get to turn that 3-6" to 6-8" for us 95 folks?  (may sound a bit greedy, but as I said, my bar for this was 5" or more to get a verified WSW...and I'm afraid 3-6" may fall short, lol)

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It will, but for the lowlands it will get scoured out if that low track is tucked in for a time as advertised. At that point its a matter of how much time elapses before the colder air gets back in. A lot of elements in play there depending on one's exact location and developing dynamics. Baltimore will probably warm above freezing but it may be fairly brief compared to areas further SE. Are you in the northern part of the city?

Yeah, the northeast Baltimore part

16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. 
@75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington 

Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc. 

So is this gonna become a battle between the CAD and the low track?...

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Those surface maps are not accurate, for the umteenth time.

The 6z GFS is a classic NW of fall line snowstorm, with some mixing on the SE edge. For DC to BWI points east, the surface gets toasty for a good part of Wed, and 925 mb temps are also problematic. 850s actually look ok this run. I-95 and east will need some serious dynamical cooling during the day Wed to overcome the warming lower levels, and then hope the backside delivers at night as the low pulls away from the coast.

And as for the CAD? Will that help any?

My sole interest in this storm is how amped it'll get to help Wednesday, lol

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

In the old days, we would say the Euro is correct and the other models will move to it...but in the past 8 years or so, it hasn't been that way from what I've seen.  Maybe the Euro is correct here, but time will tell.

Sounds like we'll be sweatin' it the next 24-48 hours to see who caves to who, lol

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Correct, when the trough for the storm is over Missouri on both models, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger and farther southwest compared to the Euro.  That, and the other reasons given are at least part of the picture for why there is a more amplified, warmer, solution on the Euro (sfc low farther NW).

Hm...so I'm wondering if we need to watch the first system more closely then...to see if it trends stronger or weaker...now it's practically on the doorstep, so you'd think we'd have more clarity on that by the end of today?

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

This is the biggest difference I see aloft between the GFS and Euro.  First off, the timestamps are different here in the comparison (hr78 for GFS and hr81 for Euro), but I'm wanting to compare the features for when the trough axis is in the same location, in this case, centered through Missouri.  The trough on the Euro is sharper with more amplitude, and the GFS has more positive tilt as it extends down thru Texas.  Also, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger.  Note the difference between the 2 models with the height lines over NY and PA.  The height lines are farther north on the Euro which equates to a more tucked, warmer solution.  Every little bit of difference counts.

That there (what you said about the 50/50)...you're saying that being weaker is what's causing the Euro result? And I'm wondering...is Monday’s wave weaker on this run as well? (Thinking about that whole inverse reaction @psuhoffman mentioned)

1 minute ago, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge?

We just suck at snow. Regardless of any ridge

I knew you were gonna come in and say something like that...maybe you should step away for a little while.

Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge?