Maestrobjwa

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Euro looking diggy with the ns so far...

Gettin' diggy with it?

40 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

from last night's EPS, but worth it

Which day was that? Lol

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

If we're talking about historical trends...there does not appear to be one that offers hope for a better season than that: the solar minimum.

I looked through BWI records and compared them with the estimated years that the minimum "bottomed out". There hasn't been a time where one of the two years surrounding the minimum didn't give us a decent (at least average) winter. And from what I can see...all but one time actually had above average snow (and the exception--the minimum of the 40s, still had a winter that logged 18 inches). So it doesn't appear that we've ever gone without the minimum giving us some kind of benefit...so we shall see.

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

95-96 was nina at tail end of solar min so never say it's a lock to be a bust.

I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, lol (I meant to add that I was excluding that year) Yeah but look how anomalous that is. I have trouble factoring that into what I'd expect from a nina because that happened just one time in 130+ years--so probably not a good idea to count on that. Safer to bet on what they've normally done aside from that one data point!

15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here.  Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

March 25, 2013 comes to mind.  Now, that wasn't as bad as this winter has been, but it was loaded with disappointment (especially when we got screwed earlier that month).

Will we ever forget the infamous Cantore out in the rain photo? Lol

And here we have our region failing at failing...had to ruin the shutout historical record, lol

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Bring on La Nina. I will take my chances lol.

Man NO!!!!! La nothin'! If I had to choose between a nina like 2016/17 or 2017/18...and a winter like this, I'm tempted to pick this winter. See low snow totals + folks just east/northeast of ya cashing in feels worse than low snow totals and everybody getting screwed. The close misses are the heartbreakers...and la ninas, by nature, seem to have more of those than the other ENSO states.

Best place in MD to be during a la nina is the beaches (or perhaps Northeast MD). Otherwise, heartbreak...

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO.  Some flurry action this Saturday.

Man, no!! Now look, if we are gonna fail, then fail properly...just go for the historical record (or at least not such an occurrence recorded since 1882). of not even a trace of snow recorded in February. But of course...I could see us finding a way to fail at failing, lol

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The hail woke me up last night and it sounded like it was pounding rain.  Surprised to see only .40" in the gauge this morning, and even more surprised to see that ridiculous end to the MD game.

Dang, it hailed here in the city too? Around what time?

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Holy crap... Morsell!  I thought the MSU game would be the best comeback of the year... omg these guys

What in the world? Ya know, something told me they were gonna come back...lol (but I turned it off because I had to do a couple things!). Just watched the highlights...that was truly clutch! Could this team finally be the one that can make a deep run?...

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground. 

Was thinking something along those lines...lol That we may have to follow the yellow brine road to find some snow!

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Little WB Oz GEFS or EPS support yet for the GFS 0z Day 13 deterministic run.

Do you notice that you sometimes write 0z like "Oz"? Lol

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3056561437689538&id=100000071343185&_rdr

To lighten the mood...I came across a story about this video. This lady is many of us here if we reach that age, lolol (oh, and she's still alive--and now 105!)

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Hints of the tpv breaking down at the end of the gfs. Just in time for our 37 degree epic perfect track phased bomb rainstorm 

Layin the troll jelly on thick today, aren't ya? Lol

One thing to add a bit of hope for our snow future...Looking through our history of solar minimums and the winters around them, it appears there has only been one minimum on record (that is, back to 1883) where we didn't get above average snow either the winter of the minimum or the winter after...and that was 1954. (And even then we did get 19 inches in 55/56). All the rest had an above average winter within 1-2 years after the minimum. I think I like that trend 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year.  Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall...  

Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs.  For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. 

Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010.  If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year.  But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we?  What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific?  I dont know.  But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want.  In the end I don't think one year can predict the next.  

I hope you're right...because this has been a bit of a rough run even by our standards. Barring any March miracles, one warning event in 4 years is rough even for us, I'd imagine...

(this is when you pull out data to show that this isn't unusual, lol). But being just 29, I guess most of my lifetime we have gotten a good punch every few years...and have not had a dry spell without a warning event (at BWI, that is...not including DCA's footer last year, lol) last longer than 4 years. So perhaps it seems worse because of that!

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of those were not good analogs to this year though... they were crap but for different reasons.  I agree that there is not predictability but if we are looking at what happened in the past when "THIS" happened before, looking at radically different winters that just happened to produce no snow but for very different reasons isn't really useful imo.  

So would it be better to look at the raging +++++AO winters and the winters that followed?...

58 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year.  I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches.  Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following.

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don't ask questions you don't want the answer too

I actually do wanna know...so we know whether we may need to cancel next winter already, lol (off the top of my head...at BWI, I know 1998-99 wasn't much...2012-13 kinda sucked, and 1973-74 was actually halfway decent total-wise)

19 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You cant make this up

Why are you guys torturing yourself with these snow maps? I mean, mercy...a snow map240 hrs out? What in the world does that even mean in any kind of season--let alone one like this one? Lol

I think from here on...no winter outlooks until December. Just don't do it, lol Don't even bother (unless it's a mod nino or something)

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hypothetically the way to get it under us is a stronger lead system that holds longer and knocks down heights. Other then that simply blind stupid luck of the second system just happens to dig further east.  The best shot remains the first energy ejection behind that. But it’s now looking like a one shot deal. If that gets suppressed were likely toast as guidance is reverting to the base state much faster now. For a few days it appeared we might even get a longer window with 2-3 chances before the reversion.  That obviously would have significantly increased our odds. 

Dang...is the first week of March hail mary window already closed? If so...oof. That would be a typical end to this winter, smh

4 hours ago, high risk said:

While the main synoptic precip shield is obviously going to be way south of here, there are hints in several of the hi-res runs for a band of snow showers moving southeast across the DC metro area this evening.     

Just enough to fail at getting a record fail for the month...lol

39 minutes ago, frd said:

 

We should be firmly negative across the board later in the year along with the delayed effects of the solar cycle.  

Next winter will again afford the opportunity to look into the newer seasonal trends and drivers.  Wondering what the West Pac will look like along with the Pac in general. 

Any hope with the + PDO this winter was quickly reversed.  Almost feel we need to wait longer to issue seasonal forecasts for the winter, downplaying early head fakes.

Last couple winters we have learned to look more at angular momentum, the Hadley cell, West Pac warm pool , and Westerly momentum along with the central Pac ridge along with the IOD and cycling pattern of the MJO. Wonder what the killer will be for next winter?   

 

Dang man you already giving up on next winter? Lol From your posts it sounds like you don't think we can get a decent winter again...I'd rather wait a few more years. If we continue to fail, then...maybe a change in climate will be a concern for our snow chances...