Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, attml said:

 

That's the Canadian, I believe...

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I definitely like the the fact the 0z Eps does show at least a partial phase if not full phase . Nice having that in our back pockets for now. 

0z Eps 

 

Gonna be really interesting to see if it at least holds onto this idea (or even grows on it!)

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea the moves in the gfs and Fv3 the last 24 hours are noise imo 

Sounds like the phase solution is the only thing that will keep those of us north of DC in the game!

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep.  It means they are getting snow and we aren't.

No true...it means we are still in the game!

6 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

I don't.

Just...I mean, I thought we would have to see more support for a possible hit before we went that far.

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

what?

(Yells into Beethoven ear trumpet: YA DON'T THINK THIS IS TOO EARLY?????") 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's open.  My bad

But again...ya don't this is premature?...

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Ah!!! Randy, what have you done?? Lol Are we not still talking in hypotheticals here?...

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Rookies making rookie mistakes and veteran trackers not knowing what the hell they’re doing for some inexplicable reason.

That's because we haven't had a preseason...lol

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It seems low and mid level temps were always marginal on the guidance outside of inland and elevated areas. If this system ends up with some degree of phasing with the NS vort, then there will likely be more precip further north, but also more temp issues for eastern areas. That is what last night's EPS is suggesting. 

My question is...how MUCH further north should we consider being a possiblity?...

.

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Snowfall map steadily increases as you move S/SW from DC.

<1” Baltimore

3” DC

4” S FFX County

7” EZF

Keep on pushin'! Gonna be an interesting next few days (that is if models don't go right back south tomorrow, lol If I were a betting man, I'd wager at worst things stay the same in 6z and 12z suites...and perhaps better? Just my wild, mostly unscientific guess, lol)

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This panel makes you wonder what else is possible with all these pieces as they shift around. 

Ya gotta wonder if...as you said, these pieces keep shifting around...what the model runs are gonna look like--and if we'll be seeing stuff go from north to south, back north...Or is some ns vort gonna appear and then disappear again...

Or...if this is to go positively for us...do we see things shift away from a miss south to something else altogether? (Just the ramblings of my mind, lol)

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point.

Hey, at least there IS an option 2...can't really say we had that 24 hours ago, lol

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

A wrinkle?  

I think I'm responsible for using that term...lol When I said wrinkle, I was referring to the possible capture and phase solution that the EURO and 18z GFS seemed to try to do (but on those particular runs, it happened too late) That was something that wasn't there before.

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? 

Was just gonna ask him the same thing! @high risk double-check the date on that

Looks like FV3 is finally finished it's 12z run...lol (maybe we get 18z all at once? )

4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I've been driving my wife crazy over this storm lol.

Now if the new GFS model joins the others and goes south I'll be giving up hope on this one. 

 

 

Nope, not yet! The phasing scenario adds a new wrinkle..giving a slight miss south new life things go well...

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol it's not out yet... nice try

TT isn't only site that has it lol

It didn't look like it was out on weathernerds either...(unless I'm just not using the site right, lol)

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

In other long range news... 12z EPS now looks exactly like a textbook nino Dec hemispheric pattern at the end of the run. This isn't a cold pattern but its surely a precursor of good times ahead if this is where we're going. 

Tony Pann storm?...lol

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run.

Dude, what/whete are looking at it? (And that would be called more than a wobble if it happened, btw...)

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Almost....again

But it's a different kind of "almost" this time!...Something new that could trend the right way...just maybe! But this new wrinkle doesn't make this feel so far away...

Huh...is this another wrinkle in the equation?...

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, you guys are slacking. JMA shifted north. Brutal cutoff tho. Sorry PSU. Yay my yard tho!

Boo, boo my Baltimore yard...lol And yeah, they were too busy talkin' about some good ol' days!

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Thanks Ian

 

"norther" Lol

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sort of encouraging.   Maybe when NWP start picking up on that more, maybe we'll get the solution we want.  Something to watch

NWP?