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Maestrobjwa

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    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    On 9/21/2021 at 8:44 PM, frd said:

     

     

    For December SSW events.

     

     

     

    So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

    2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"

    2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"              

    2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T                     

    2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"                

    1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"                

    1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"               

    1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"              

    1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"               

    1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"

    So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

    Fall Foliage

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

    Post your observations, picture and general fall foliage topics. You could also post things about fall in general but try to keep it to foliage. Thought it would be a good idea considering next week looks cooler and there is some slight colors on the trees already. Thanks to @Maestrobjwa for reminding me, I thought about this topic earlier in the week but just remembered after you mentioned it and better to make it sooner than later. 

    Thanks! Yeah just wanted to try and get an idea...(because every year by the time I think of it's the peak is already past, lol). A met on Twitter suggested that the second/third week of October would be the peak...anybody have any thoughts on that?

    Winter 2021-2022

    in New England

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    My personal observation with the HC is that it took a leap in the 1998 actually during that super Nino, and never really fell back to its original state before that particular El Niño took place - it has if anything grown somewhere between 3 and 5° of latitude since.

    A question: If you said it took a leap during THAT super nino...does it stand to reason that it took another leap during the 2015-16 super niño? Because let me tell ya...feels like that year broke something, lol

    September Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

    Good to see rain in the forecast for the northwest. Hopefully the rest of the west can make up some of their deficit this fall and winter.

    Knowing that wretched climate they'll probably flood and/or mudslide....sheesh. I hope the in between seasons are worth it!!

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, IronTy said:

    Bastardi is all over a cold start to winter.  With december anomalies below avg based on his analog pkgs.  Not sure how I should hedge that.

    I mean...aren't la ninas usually colder on the front end anyway?

    Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

    Might as well start a thread to track the extended range as we head into the latter part of September.  First freeze for the mountains (technically Canaan already hit it) should be coming into guidance soon.  Meanwhile, DCA won't hit freezing until January probably.

    Nah I'm gonna bet the corridors probably hits it in December...ninas do tend to be colder on the front end, lol

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    On 9/10/2021 at 8:22 PM, Chris78 said:

    Canceling winter already? Lol

    I wouldn't say "cancel" as in a 2019-20 redux...just canceling for getting that elusive verified WSW, and the usual Nina heartbreakers northeast (Miller B city) and Midwest...and southeast, lol We could still get some good scenery snow...and eek out enough to get near median...but that's the most we get out of ninas. All else is the snowhole, typically. 

     

    Listen I'm just going off of 2016-17 & 2017-18 where we saw this. And last year kinda the same (note the Miller B we got just the edge of). Chaos can happen, but it rarely does in a Nina, lol The other ENSO states at least have more possibilities, though the chaos makes NO guarantees.

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Old Farmer's Almanac prediction actually sounds like a good Nina prediciton...cold and dry here, cold and snowy Midwest & Northeast. Folks say there's no magic formula, but of all the ENSO states...are ninas not the most predictable? I'm still waiting for someone to give me one example other than 95/96 where a Nina didn't do exactly as stated above...I don't understand why past ninas aren't reliable indicators of future ones. The other ENSO states vary--I get that--but ninas seem to be the most consistent in not getting us much snow. The 3 ninas we've had since 2016 have all behaved in a similar way (albeit last winter it was a bit warmer overall)

    Looking ahead...I'd like to get another shot at it next year to see where the ENSO is...because this year might be toast--although I wouldn't be surprised if we trip into median snowfall (which I'll certainly take over a shutout) a la 2017-18. But as always the snow hole is gonna be tough to watch...but thus ninas go.

    2021-2022 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

    Yep. Especially in the Fall. If you rank Nino 3.4 by month for "coldness", the event last year was most impressive in the Fall. October and November 2020 were both top ten cold ENSO events since 1950. The later/earlier periods were no where near that.

    These are your coldest ever Novembers in Nino 3.4, using a constant baseline (CPC uses a sliding baseline) of 26.49C. Top ten sounds real strong out of 71 years right? Problem is only like 23 or 24 of the years are La Ninas. So the peak is really only slightly above the middle of the pack for a La Nina, and then it was weaker in winter Spring.

    1955    -2.24
    1973    -2.16
    1988    -1.84
    1975    -1.44
    2010    -1.43
    1999    -1.37
    2007    -1.32
    1998    -1.25
    1964    -1.23
    2020    -1.21

    So ya wonder if this one tapers a bit for this winter?...

    2021-2022 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, raindancewx said: 
                   Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
     28JUL2021     22.1 0.8     25.1-0.4     26.7-0.4     28.7-0.1
 04AUG2021     21.7 0.7     25.1-0.2     26.7-0.3     28.6-0.2
 11AUG2021     20.9 0.1     24.8-0.4     26.5-0.4     28.6-0.2
 18AUG2021     20.5-0.1     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.9     28.6-0.2
 25AUG2021     20.6 0.0     25.0-0.0     26.5-0.3     28.5-0.3
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3
     29JUL2020     20.1-1.2     24.7-0.8     26.3-0.8     28.4-0.5
 05AUG2020     19.8-1.3     24.6-0.7     26.3-0.7     28.4-0.4
 12AUG2020     19.9-0.9     24.8-0.4     26.4-0.6     28.3-0.5
 19AUG2020     19.5-1.1     24.3-0.7     26.0-0.9     28.4-0.4
 26AUG2020     20.0-0.6     24.2-0.8     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.2
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4

    For this week, +1.4C in Nino 1.2, +1.1C in Nino 3, +0.7C in Nino 3.4, and even in Nino 4 compared to 2020. Last year, conditions were solidly La Nina by now. This is not that.

    Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. You have some warm water below the surface at 160W and west. The waters below the rest of Nino 3.4 are somewhat cold but not incredibly. You also have some warmth way at depth which diminishes the totality of the cold signal quite a bit.

    image.png.d878815d1374ccaeccdd144319625899.png

    Do you think this is a weaker nina than a year ago?

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