Maestrobjwa

And it's STILL going...the energizer bunny of cells, lol

15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

A severe thunderstorm is 58mph wind or hail to quarter size or higher (or both) OR tornado.

Well I think we certainly met one or both of those up in Baltimore City, lol

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Man, that just bubbled up over my house basically and settled in for a spell. 

Same...Lights flickering at my house, lol A lot of whipping rain and lighting!

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

PW and Fauquier warned for 80mph and golf ball. 

ETA: It's pouring here. Thunder too. Sub severe though. 

Now what qualifies as sub-severe vs. severe?

Woo!!! Pouring rain here...now got even heavier with a little more lighting!

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

12 August 2021

 

Sigh........

I may have to fast from following winter wx this winter--for my own mental health, lol I mean ninas are so predictable you can make a safe forecast, right? Little events, maybe ya get to median, big Miller B storms missing northeast! At least you can still get scenery snow in ninas...I mean all except 1995-96 played out the exact same way, did they not? I guess the only wild card would be...if things don't work the way they used to, lol

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

any chance you have a link to that? dm me if so, always looking to up my GR experience.

GR?

Wooo!!! This was the most lightning I've seen in my yard in a long time! Heck of a lightshow--awesome cell!! (nice to not see it miss north and south, lol)

Wooooowee we've had a heck of a light show here in the city! I mean this thing had some juice!!

I just don't understand...26 dang years of existence...and we draw bad card at 1st round WR every. Dang. Time. It's like we spin the wheel and always land on bankrupt, smh And why just that position??? Every other position is great! It's like some force said "the Ravens are not supposed to get a 1st rd WR ever"

And it's a shame because skill-wise, Bateman may be the best one we drafted. And get this: He didn't have injury issues in college. Just when WE pick him  

Now I thought Hollywood may have finally broken the streak. Because he hasn't been a "bust"...at least not by comparison to others. But he started off hurt too, smh. I just don't understand...smh

Maybe we see Bateman sometime this season, but you know even if we do he might be hampered. Looks like a groin injury so who knows? I'm just tired of this mess...we deserve to have a WR1 drafted. But something keeps getting in the way and crap like this happens! Gah!!!!

Rant over (I think, lol)

38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s never gonna snow again 

Ohhh it will...but I think the WSW drought may continue for another year, unfortunately. But at least we can still get scenery snow!

35 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I remember well. Good thing they typically didn't develop perfect eyes and reach what some of us expected on those paths. There were some good conditions at times.

Seemed like last year was the year of the ragged eye...lol 

2 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

Sheesh...4 la ninas in 6 years. Ha...ya think if stuff has to warm these waters could warm too...lol But here they are cold! (I know it's subsurface thus it's a different animal than the air) And why do la ninas tend to repeat but el niños don't?

35 minutes ago, Jessy89 said:

If it’s true a weak El Niño is developing. We just see how it effect the rest of hurricane season. I realize we are not at peak yet. But does anyone believe forecast of amount of named storms will bust low? I’m sorta thinking that but know we could be in for a fun winter across the southeast.


.

Huh? Thought we were in la nina?

54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Werent 72-73, 76-77, 91-92, 94-95 mod ninos? Were they prolific snow producers? Pretty sure your recipe doesn’t work all the time. There’s no magic button. 

According to ggweather.com, 72-73 was a Strong Nino, 76-77 was weak, and 91-92 was strong. So you have 51-52 and 1994-95 in the last 60 years that didn't produce...but it appears the rest did. So it may not be 100%, but to me it's higher confidence enough to say it's worked much more than it hasn't!

51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well I was pretty clear about NEUTRAL lol. Not sure why mod/strong Nina was mentioned.

Because you said "moderate to strong ANYTHING can bring great or awful"....which of course ain't the case with moderate/strong ninas which are mostly bad, lol

Let's clear something up here: What is defined as a winter where things did "work?" Hitting the median? Having at least one warning level event? Several small events? Things that add up to average? Can you call a winter that failed to produce a 5" event one that "worked"?

To me if you can't register at lrast warning level event, that means things didn't weren't working THAT well at any point during the winter (unlike other winters where you could have at least one period that "worked"). As I've observed here the last 7 years, usually something up top was causing some frustration (a lot of "if we had more/less of this feature we could get more snow") Now sure you could make a case where a winter full of 1-2 inchers that added up to median "worked" for scenery purposes...so by that definition maybe others winters "worked" (like the la ninas of 2016-17 & 17-18 that did just enough to deplete snow days, lol). 

All that to say...it sounds kinda subjective, lol

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

2 things. 1) nothing works every time 2) some of us don’t measure a winter only by above average snowfall. 
 

Moderate to strong anything can bring great or awful. I’ll sacrifice “huge” for consistent any day.

1) Never said every time...just MOST of the time. Always exceptions (like last year's -AO/-NAO not working). Historically mod ninos have produced the most...followed by some neutrals.

2) I mean don't most of us here want above average...or even above median?......Just me? Lol I mean what's a good winter?

3) Moderate to Strong Nina...name one time outside of 1995-96 that was good! And name a mod nino that wasn't. Strong ninos are indeed hit or miss.

42 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Blocking this year again?

If that's the case I'm sorry the blocking has had to come under a Nina regime. I think if we had had it during 2018-19 that could've been better!

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m a believer that neutral is the best for the types of winter that I want. From -0.5 to 0.5. More consistently wintry.

Neutral didn't work two years ago...lol (albeit the +AO rage party was probably the culprit). But are not moderate ninos the most consistent for above average snowfall? I think the only one in recent years that didn't work was 1991-92...and I heard that Pinatubo probably had something to do with that. But mod ninos seem to be once a decade, though...

I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

I mean he has a good point. Let’s just all be hopeful until that theory crumbles. Lol. 

It may have already crumbled last winter...lol Well maybe not crumbled, since we did have the -AO/-NAO...it just may not work anymore, who knows?

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sure, why not.

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1422913395486040066?s=20

"Last time we were coming out of a solar min cycle, we had a monster winter: 2009/10. The time before that in the winter of 2002/3, we had 58" of snow. Now I'm not saying correlation is causation, but....we will be in that spot this winter!"

But again, though...the solar minimum was in late 2019, correct? We're past the lag time! And again...last winter's -AO/-NAO I thought was the result of the minimum...just that we couldn't do anything with it. And even if this year ends up being the actual solar min. benefit, how is that gonna happen with a la nina? And, both 02/03 and 09/10 also happened to be El Ninos...

2 hours ago, mappy said:

This. Please!

Yeah we had all but one thread on the entire site completely implode over this last year, lol (how the one in the Great lakes/Midwest forum survived I had no idea!)

Okay I have to ask...why is it that la ninas easily repeat in consecutive years yet El niños don't? Smh And dang it we JUST had consecutive la ninas a few years ago (16-17 & 17-18 I believe)...and here we are again. Shoot if things are gonna warm why can't we see more niño? Lol Would be nice if it worked that way!!