Maestrobjwa

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

I wish we could get days where there was enough cold before to give any snow a chance to stick right away

I think we even had that in Jan 2016! I mean everything went about as perfectly as it can go for that storm!

10 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

FWIW the ICON has consistently been the warmest and furthest West with the LP track of all the globals. Is it on to something?

Wouldn't let my mind go there if I were you...and just remember it's the ICON, lol Let's just see what happens in the next suite...then we can discuss blip or trend

So I guess the only "rug getting pulled out" scenario would be a further west track at this point?...

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

That would be a change of events considering most of the 12z guidance locks it in a good way for most here. Will be enhanced IMO as we move closer to game time.

Yeah and so far the high moving away too quickly hasn't been too much of an issue on the rest of the guidance...

1 minute ago, H2O said:

let the run happen, folks

I blame the psu theory

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

EURO is weaker with Monday storm....hope that does translate into a problem for midweek

Darn...don't wanna see that become a thing...

3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

100%. That was crazy accurate... it was like: just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

(every model run) 

That was a golden week right there...ain't never seen consensus from like 7-8 days out be that rock-steady!

Just now, PhineasC said:

You think a snow storm "locks in" 4+ days out. LOL

#Jan2016...aka easiest tracking ever. But it's kinda rare!

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB Canadian total snowfall 

Even if ya cut that in half for the usual caveats...what would that be...8"+ even for the cities?

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That is already likely the case for SE of I95, if GFS and EURO are correct. Just looked at the GEFS, and its hours and hours of rain here with temps in the upper 30s verbatim. Need several ticks SE to give your area a buffer, and give me some decent snow. Went slightly the other way on the 12z GFS/GEFS.

Now what would have to happen to make it go a tad SE?Just a little less amped on Wednesday? (or is this a double-edged sword...and that we don't want less amped because ya want the rates?)

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Status quo for the Beltway crews...which is fine at this point.   Still a solid thump

And add to that the possibility of CAD being undermodeled (as it sometimes is)...and that's a pretty great run!!

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Sharper, more consolidated vort for Monday’s storm.  Hopefully translates into a monster 50/50.

Heck yeah...keep it ampin'!

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

If you set that as the bar you might as well make a reservation in The Panic Room. I wouldn't even lock in double digits up here and I don't have a quarter of the concerns imby. 

I think warning level is achievable. From there, it's gravy IMO. 

Warning level is my bar too...I haven't had one verify imby since 2016, so...I'd take 5-8"! I am curious about what the ceiling will be though...

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its because it has a "bomb" for Monday in relative terms.  Its like low 990s off NJ Monday

Looks like it follows the @psuhoffman theory! 

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lookin real juiced

Good!! Amp that baby up to help with Wednesday!

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

I know it's still early in the season and I am less than a weather amateur, but I know we have had several significant snowstorms just a couple of days after having 60's and 70's.  

Yeah he was being mostly sarcastic with that comment...lol

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The stronger CAD signature is massive and was shown on every model run this evening. Keep that working and let the UL pattern fall over the next succession of days. A lot to track and we haven't even touched the mesoscale. 

Could you elaborate a bit more (not that you haven't already done a lot elaborating of course!) about how the stonger CAD signature would impact on what you just mentioned about with the "warm nose" this run of the euro showed?

Just now, yoda said:

I'm fine with the 00z EURO run.  yeah, doesn't look like the CMC/GFS maps... but I am sure the EPS has a good amount of monster hits.  The storm is there... and 50-75 miles is all we need as @Yeoman said above for all to cash in

So this run was more about track than any other factor?

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I see a 1C layer in DC at both 925 and 850. Pretty close. 

Now with the 1035 high overhead...is the track what caused the slightly warmer solution?

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Wrong emoji!!!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs doesn’t quite get the heavy qpf far enough NW to intersect where it’s cold enough NW of the fall line. But it’s been clueless on this wave (as it was the wave last week that gave some light snow to southern VA). 
 

But I mean...at this point tho...according to your theory, shouldn't we be kinda rooting against a snowier solution for this wave anyway? Lol

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Amped honestly the whole h5 track of the initial system is not ideal even on runs that show a big hit. We need that monster 50/50 to offset that. Or we need the system to trend south with the track of the initial system. 

Uh...would you mind translating that a bit? Need what system to trend south of what now? Lol

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Living in Leesburg may actually payoff for once here. But per the other thread, a more amped Monday storm may ahve a correlation to a weaker/more progressive/warmer Wednesday storm, right? At least that is how I read it.

I think @psuhoffman was saying it was the opposite: that we want more amped to lower heights (still not entirely clear on what "heights" are, but I digress, lol). We want lower heights for a colder Wednesday system, I think.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It trended less amplified/south Monday and warmer Wed. There is an inverse correlation between the two waves. 

Oh come on...smh Then amp that that first baby up!!!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.  

Always something... So we basically don't want more snow out of the first wave?...