Maestrobjwa

57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

 

LLJ?

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. 

Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Please do. 

I'm seriously thinking about it (as long as the mods don't mind!) Not making it to say 2022-23 is definitely the year...just to say

1) How sure I am about this winter being over (for anything above advisory event(s) and that I'd bet the house (if I were a gambler) we get no warning level event this winter...and

2) holding out a glimmer of hope to see if the whole every 6-7 year thing still works, lol And to see if we can still get something going in a non-nina state.

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Why stop at 2022-23?

Because I don't see much sense looking past that...we don't know what ENSO we're gonna spin (or if even a Niño will still do any good). And also for the historical reason...another egg laid would match our longest drought (1970 through the 77-78 winter) without a warning level event at BWI.

On 10/20/2021 at 3:02 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

You've become such a good poster. Awesome discussion. Fingers crossed for snowier outcomes this year. We could all use it.

Yes indeed he has--keep learning and growing, Cobalt!

I'm ready to start a Winter 2022-23 thread. I will completely own it for better or worse, lol

20 hours ago, frd said:

Nina's can be front loaded. Pac jet retraction combined with weaker early season PV together give some  credence to the weeklies portrayal. 

Very true.

Ugh...Today's Nor'easter is a gut punch...because you know it's coming this winter (if we get a storm like this) This is where Philly/NJ and north have it really good in Ninas! I'm already dreading it...eh, just gotta take the punches and stagger on (and not listen to weather news during the event)

17 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's just crazy to see!

You know if it were happening here, someone would complain, "I bet we end up with member #46, only 27 inches!!!"

Man IF/when we get a heavy snow again, if I hear one complaint about 20 vs 30 inches or so help me, lol

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB Euro Weeklies, Dreaming of a White Christmas …

So...when do these weeklies get thrown in the trash heap? Lol I mean seriously, these things look absolutely useless to me (a more experienced mind can correct me here)...I mean are they just used to try and sniff out very general trends, or?

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

Impressive amount of thunder with this 

Can't remember hearing thunder this late in October...but perhaps I just never noticed, lol

Woooowee Quite a deluge moving through here now! Cats and dogs 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I am on record stating median snowfall is a reasonable expectation. Maybe Bomb Cyclone II will happen and track a little closer.

You know it won't...do things EVER track a little closer in a Nina? Lol

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Eastern NJ up into SNE looks to get clobbered pretty good with heavy rain from this event. Close call for our area, and even here not sure I will see the 1-2" in the forecast. The coastal low looks to form late and track a bit too far offshore, which is always tricky at our latitude wrt to getting in on the good precip. This is like training for what is likey to come this winter lol.

So tell me again why predicting mediocrity this winter is unreasonable? Lol This is typical nina!

I actually feel unusually good after this loss...why?

1) This team will be better served by a loss heading into the bye week than a win. We got 5 straight, now we needed to be knocked down a peg or two so that we don't peak too soon.

2) History!  In 2012, Week 7 (same week)...we got our butts kicked 43-13 by the Texans before we headed into a Week 8 bye! We all know what happened that season 

*I see other paralells...In 2012 we were hit hard with injuries that year too (like Suggs tearing his Achilles that summer), the defense looked atrocious (especially in the first half of the season...sheesh), and we had a few miracle wins. (Like winning 9-6 on FGs vs. KC, and barely winning on a DAL missed FG, and of course 4th and 29 later on) So...you just never know! 

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap.

Kinda where I'm at. Hoping for at least some legit cold and a few scenery WWA events (can we get a couple 2 inchers? Lol) if we can manage it. That actually wouldn't be terrible for a nina

46 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

..which hasn't even happened yet.

It kinda has...it happened last year, 2017-18, 2016-17....(list other la ninas not named 95/96 here).

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But living in and around DC and Baltimore and expecting 20" of snowfall every winter is just not aligned with reality and will leave you disappointed about 75% of the time.   

Who said anything about everytime? I'm under no such delusion. I'd be happy with intervals we got that between 1982-83 and 2015-+16. We'd go 3-4 years, then get a 20 inch winter--and in between that was kinda mediocre. That's fine--it's what my generation grew up with--and thus it's what I'd come to expect out of this region. But this stretch we're in now goes beyond that, and is the longest since the 70s. Now maybe this will even out I don't know...but with all the climate talk I'm not so sure.

So in summary...this is a longer interval than some of us born post 70s have seen in our lifetime. (I think between 1987-1993 may have been about this long)

58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel like I’m missing some context on that graphic because that’s confusing.

Wider shot here. I read this as saying that 70% of la ninas have below normal snow, and 60% were warmer than normal.

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Tasselmyer lol

What's the rub on him?

Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas)

I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here...

This thread still on? Lol

And foliage updates?

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

I am not a Ravens fan. 

I know, lol

1 hour ago, mappy said:

i went to bed before their comeback so i missed him being 'good'. but slept well laughing at his fumbling. and then again the missed 2pt conversion. 

I'm guessing you're not a Lamar fan? Lol Hey as bad as the fumble was--we don't win the game without him. Dude came back a la Rodgers/Brady fashion. When he makes mistakes he has a way of just shaking it off moving on!