Jump to content

Maestrobjwa

Members
  • Posts

    10,918
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    See bold part. 

    I’ve been very clear I think this year will very likely be below avg.  But how much below I have no gut feeling on.  And all it ever takes is for us to get lucky a couple times and suddenly we have a decent snow season even in a crap pattern year. But the chances we get a really awful year similar to last is not 0.  And if we get a really strong flat central pac ridge +NAO pattern like all guidance suggests that’s a big problem.  Everything in that post I made last December (that Mersky picked a fight over) basically saying we were in big trouble, would apply again. Just because we suffered last year won’t make that pattern any less hostile for snow. I guess my main point is the odds we get an equally awful season to last are a lot higher than some wave to admit. I don’t think that’s Likely how this plays out. But I’m wary that it could. 

    I'm wondering if we are ridiculously (and somewhat jokingly) splitting hairs over what's defined as "equally awful" here...Like the whole 6" of slop vs 1.8" of slop. I approach the argument in the most literal sense: that if we get 6 inches instead of 1 it's still better. Even 4 inches instead of one would mathematically classify as "not as bad". However in the less literal, more subjective sense? Probably not, lol But mathematically, seeing as it won't take much to beat 1.8"...I'd like to believe there's enough "chaos" in the equation to beat that (or else it would be a historic occurrence that hasn't happened in our 140 years of records...Even stretches of bad years you'd get a 6-8 incher in there, lol)

  2. 1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

    There is a reason the the stats and announcers keep saying that when the Ravens fall behind they are toast...

    Lamar can't orchestrate a comeback with his arm.

    A real sensitive subject in Baltimore... sure, we will see.

    Don't disagree about the comeback problem...he has to learn how to do that. But where I do disagree is your proclamation of it already being a done deal. Now if it's not fixed before the end of the season, then perhaps--but until then...too soon to say.

    • Like 1
  3. 2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

    I know many in Balmer react violently to this idea these days, but Lamar is not the long-term solution everyone hoped for. He has been figured out by the league, IMO. These scramble QBs always need to convert into pocket passers or they fade away. Mahomes and Wilson did it. Most do not.

    Just like how folks thought he'd been "figured out" by the league after the first playoff loss in 2018-19...lol 

    Too early to say that, dude...He's 23 years old (not mention still the reigning MVP)...so we cannot know for sure yet. Now by the end of this season we'll have a better idea. League adjusts, but now we have to wait to see what he does to adjust. This is essentially like a sophomore season for him, imo (despite it being year three).

  4. 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    Waah waah I don't want to wear a mask

    Waah waah I don't want to cut out my higher risk behaviors

    Look no further as to why we are in the situation we are in.  

    Yeah I mean seriously...we ain't got nobody else to blame but ourselves (collectively). Folks don't realize how much could have opened up had we all done what we were supposed to do. That way, the inevitable Fall spike wouldn't be poised to look the way it does...and maybe we wouldn't have started the Fall at like 40,000 cases a day (and that's a bad baseline to start from). I just don't get it...smh

  5. 2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    Scary stuff

    Not stated explicitly in the story, but not unreasonable to think this is coming from her handling of the pandemic.  Arguably she has gotten more attention about it than 45+ other governors.

    Not the place to discuss it, but we are likely in for some crazy times imo, as if 2020 hasn't been wild enough already.

    Yeah that is scary...I thank God they caught them. What saddens me is that there could be a portion of people that would've heartily agreed with what they wanted to do...is this where we are? Smh But as you said, the pandemic drove some of this, I'm sure...

    Don't be surprised if 2020 saves it's best crazy for the last three months (I mean, look where we are already!)

  6. 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart 

    lol

    Feels like there's a degree of hurricane structure OCD in here...lol I mean I kinda get it from a weather geek standpoint, I suppose...hurricane perfectionism?:lol:

    • Like 5
  7. 3 hours ago, 40westwx said:

    Its happening this year!  We are gonna have an epic ns winter like 2014.  Get ready for over performing Clippers!

     

    Now that would be a funny (and totally 2020-like) scenario...after clippers have been basically AWOL for like 5 years, lol

    • Like 1
  8. Just now, psuhoffman said:

    Perfect 50/50 but a lobe rotated around at the exact wrong time and squashed the flow. 

    Will never forget that h5 (horrible 5) look...lol Was a literal forcefield. But I'm slowly learning about the "chaos" side of things when it comes to our snow...

  9. But really...and maybe this is just a mild hunch, but...I feel like IF we are surprised in a good way this year, and it's only supposed to be one opportunity (as opposed to some '96 style anomaly all winter) it might just be in December. I base that off of nothing else but a hunch (and I admittedly smoked a little almanac too), and my expectations are still appropriately low! But this is 2020...lol

  10. 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    It's a tiny storm so it really will need a direct landfall over one of the resort towns to have a huge impact. Hopefully it just misses them. 

    So let me guess...pinpoint forecasting for smaller hurricanes is more difficult because the major impact radius is smaller?

  11. 1 hour ago, RobertSul said:

    Why are you clinging onto 6 month old information in a 7 month long pandemic?

    And this is what doesn't make sense to me. The only reason I can see is just to use something to excuse not wearing masks or the coalition against Fauci. Otherwise, that people somehow genuinely couldn't understand even after 6 months of consistent guidance doesn't seem plausible to ne...

    • Like 2
  12. 1 hour ago, JoMo said:

    It shows that the "message" was obfuscated from the start. Here you have Dr. Fauci downplaying masks entirely and saying the only ones that should be wearing them are medical professionals and people who are sick. 

    In addition, here's an earlier article showing Dr. Fauci's statements at various times downplaying the risk as well, as the situation developed. 

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/03/virus_experts_early_statements_belie_prescient_portrayal_142845.html

    But again though...how could the message not be muddled right at the start of this, seeing as they were all still learning? But then they corrected as they followed the science. I mean...I could see if stuff kept changing, but consistency over 6 months oughta be enough to get the message across. I can't believe that folks still wouldn't trust it after that unless it were purposeful mistrust, lol

    • Like 1
  13. 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    Watched the video of him walking up the stairs to the balcony.  The pace looked fine, but once he got to the balcony and took off the mask, there were a few instances where it looked like he was taking deeper breaths.  To be fair, I don't know what his normal physical fitness is, so perhaps he would've been a bit winded walking up those stairs before all of this happened.

    Okay, now I'm really done commenting on Trump.  :P

    Lol I noticed the same...he definitely looked congested, breathing through his mouth more than usual...but I'm no doctor!

  14. 2 hours ago, JoMo said:

    BTW, Dr. Fauci on masks (early on)

    https://streamable.com/oml2rf

    Forgive me but...I don't know why those who want to argue against masks (not saying you specifically) keep using this one early moment in time as support for it...It's almost like the mask advice given from April onward didn't matter. It's always "But at first you said..."...I don't know if it's a genuine "can't unring that bell" argument or just an anti-mask excuse.

    • Like 2
  15. 8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

    We are about to start seeing a fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere Niña start to take shape in the next few weeks. Should be interesting to see how that affects the PDO: 

     

    Oh sure, so the nina this year can couple, but the niño of 18'-19', for whatever reason, couldn't...offfffffcourse, lol :rolleyes:

  16. 52 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
    1 hour ago, Amped said:
    GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf,     but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded.  
     
    Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall.

    That's not far off from a hypothetical unfolding. It could reach Cat 4 and then weaken rapidly prior to landfall.

    Ha...opposite of everything else this year, lol

  17. 2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

    Dueling CBs within the CDO with enough distance off the Rivera Maya coast that Gamma may very well attain hurricane intensity by landfall. Been a number of these this year.
    8ba22715859e68ec7dcb5853c83defa2.gif

    Yep...goin' super saiyan right up to landfall...I wonder what's caused that phenomenon this year?

×
×
  • Create New...