Maestrobjwa

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

2016-17 and 2017-18 were pretty good for eastern areas. Median to average snowfall, and above avg snowfall both years I believe for the immediate MA coast. One was a weak Nina I think.

That sounds about right. Yeah one of those years was the bomb cyclone, lol In Ninas, everything is too far east or northeast!

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let me tack onto this. Let’s look at moderate ninas.

84-85 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Helluva winter in swva, don’t know about here

95-96 …. Borderline moderate Nina. Don’t even need to say anything here

10-11 …. Moderate Nina. Decent winter and missed by the slimmest of margins from being memorable.

20-22 …. Moderate Nina. Good winter by most people’s standards.

Have there been times when a weak to moderate Nina was not good? Of course. Have ther been times when a moderate Nino was not good. Yes there have been.

I just think this whole premise is whacked.

 

 

Wait hang on...95-96 was the only above median snowfall in the bunch. The rest didn't work well here. (and what's 20-22? We ain't there yet, lol)

84-85 10.3 inches

10-11 14.4 inches

(We lucked up with the 2010-11 late January storm...but missed Boxing day in the most nina way possible). More El niños than la ninas have worked. Some neutrals have worked. But the least likely enso state for decent snowfall has been la nina. 95-96 I think we can agree is an anomaly.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He seems to spend a lot of time trying to find patterns to explain the chaos. The best we can do with seasonal is perhaps pick out some drivers that can perhaps increase the odds slightly towards certain characteristics. Besides that you have to surrender to the chaos and roll with it. Or you will go crazy Imo. 

I do that because trying to guess what happens next and finding patterns in things to try to guess what happens is just in my nature. Not so easily satisfied just not knowing or having stuff have no rhyme or reason when it comes to desirable outcomes.

Now I'm slowly coming around to the reality of chaos in weather, however...but I still would like to know if we see warning level snow again. Because if that is no longer possible I won't pay much attention to any seasonal anything or track any winter on this board. But we don't know yet...and I don't like that we do not know, lol It's like...I'd rather know now (and bemoan and vent out the disappointment over not seeing it again), instead of having to have wait to find out later.

But again.....we simply can't know...yet

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When we get about 200% of normal in a Nina it’s gonna fry the maestros circuits

C'mon...you can't tell me it wouldn't fry your circuits and everybody else's circuits too! I'd like to know who here legit wouldn't be surprised at that!

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know you have been paying close attention the last several winters. We manage to suck at snow regardless of ENSO state or strength. But historically, above all, root for a -AO. That gives the best chance for colder/snowier for DC area. Didn't quite work out last winter- other stuff can overwhelm, and it may not be the indicator it once was going forward. But we just cant know yet.

Disagree on one point of that--we still have not had the one ENSO state that has payed off the most: moderate nino. Think about it...we haven't had one since 2009-10! 2016 was strong and gave us out last blizzard, but outside of that? Haven't seen it! I'd like to see if that ENSO state will still work today.

31 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The Pac is going to be garbage? Oh, tell me something else new.

So tell me simply: if the pac will be bad every year from now on...would it only be during El niños that we can snow? Trying to get an idea of what setup we'd need (I'm sure whatever it is won't come as often as we'd like...but I'm still curious)

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That Pac sst is hot poo 

Hasn't it been that way since 2016? Lol

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

Ha...so Henri VIII (named storm) threatens New England? Haha...

Pouring once again here! But I think I see a few peaks of sun too

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a possible training event setting up over Baltimore City into Towson and then east to White Marsh. I gotta give credit to LWX, they've been money on these flash flood watches of late.

Now what exactly is a training event? (Google yielded irrelevant results, lol)

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Meanwhile the heaviest cells skipped right over me and restrengthened to my north. 

Ah I'm sorry dude...Now see we miss more than we hit...usually north or south...but for some reason the last week or so the cells have been lining up just right, lol

Heck of a run Baltimore City has been on for the past week...yet another cell straight across the city, lol Quite the downpour!

On 8/14/2021 at 6:23 PM, George001 said:

To me it looks like there is a growing signal for a weaker pacific jet, if this trend continues this could mean this winter will look nothing like the 2015-2016 to 2020-2021 winters did in regards to the pacific.

I think that would be a welcome change for some subforums, lol The PAC jet has been a focal point of discussion of what gets in the way! (and more generally if it would become a more permanent feature or not)

3 hours ago, RT1980 said:

So, what’s it going to do?

Do dumber things dumbly 

1 hour ago, yoda said:

 

"Doing the dumb" lol Gonna use that!

2/3 hits this week with more lighting than I've seen in a long time. What a week!!

And now we have some more rain and rumbles of thunder on the back end...lol Fun storm!

And it's STILL going...the energizer bunny of cells, lol

15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

A severe thunderstorm is 58mph wind or hail to quarter size or higher (or both) OR tornado.

Well I think we certainly met one or both of those up in Baltimore City, lol

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Man, that just bubbled up over my house basically and settled in for a spell. 

Same...Lights flickering at my house, lol A lot of whipping rain and lighting!

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

PW and Fauquier warned for 80mph and golf ball. 

ETA: It's pouring here. Thunder too. Sub severe though. 

Now what qualifies as sub-severe vs. severe?

Woo!!! Pouring rain here...now got even heavier with a little more lighting!

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

12 August 2021

 

Sigh........

I may have to fast from following winter wx this winter--for my own mental health, lol I mean ninas are so predictable you can make a safe forecast, right? Little events, maybe ya get to median, big Miller B storms missing northeast! At least you can still get scenery snow in ninas...I mean all except 1995-96 played out the exact same way, did they not? I guess the only wild card would be...if things don't work the way they used to, lol

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

any chance you have a link to that? dm me if so, always looking to up my GR experience.

GR?

Wooo!!! This was the most lightning I've seen in my yard in a long time! Heck of a lightshow--awesome cell!! (nice to not see it miss north and south, lol)