Maestrobjwa

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Deepest trough in the northern Hemisphere showing up over the eastern US. And a tiny spec of “Barney” for the first time in how long...

Rubble or the dinosaur?

(but seriously what are you referring too? Lol)

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ETA:  it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. 

Now you know that caveat won't work...worrying will always commence, lol

Just now, Interstate said:

From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well.

The second blizzard was pretty cold...although I remember there being a warm layer there that turned to freezing rain for a time in the corridor (and my 19 year-old ungrateful self was sittin' there complaining about it, smh)

48 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

i believe we had a severely negative -nao/-ao during the winter of 59-60.  and yet we were completely snowless until sometime in february that season?  patience.

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

ji got a foot but of course he already forgot

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed

Let me ask you something...are you ever actually thankful when you do get snow?

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019.  I finished with just under 7".  I think Baltimore got shafted though.

We sure did...which is why I don't even count it!

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

Ah yes...I think the article I copy and pasted from was from before 2016, lol And yeah I know YOU know...posting more for others here!

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is NOT the same as waiting for a late save in March. Yea it sucks to wait until later January but honestly this is our climo MO. And frankly if we want to pick the absolute best time to maximize the probabilities of taking advantage of blocking and cold late January into February is it!

 

Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun)

Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that!

1. Feb. 15-18, 2003:  28.2 inches     

2. Jan. 27-29, 1922:  26.5 inches        

3. Feb. 5-6, 2010:  24.8 inches*

4. Feb. 11, 1983:  22.8 inches

5. Jan. 7-8, 1996:  22.5 inches

6. Mar. 29-30, 1942:  22.0 inches

7. Feb. 11-14, 1899:  21.4 inches        

8. Dec. 18-19, 2009:  21.1 inches

9. Feb. 18-19, 1979:  20.0 inches

10. Feb. 9-10, 2010:  19.5 inches

11. Mar. 15-18, 1892:  16.0 inches

12. Feb. 15, 1958:  15.5 inches           

13. Jan. 25, 2000:  14.9 inches

14. Dec. 11-12, 1960:  14.1 inches

15. Feb. 11-12, 2006:  13.1 inches

16. Mar. 5-7, 1962:  13.0 inches

17: Jan. 22, 1987:  12.3 inches        

18. Jan. 30-31, 1966:  12.1 inches

19. Feb. 16-18, 1900:  12.0 inches

20. Mar. 13-14, 1993:  11.9 inches

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your second point is interesting. The one biggest change is the enhanced pac jet. But that seems to be a new normal since it’s existed for quite a while now regardless of enso state.  But perhaps that has made that look less supportive then it once was. And your point about outdated analogs is true. But that also kind of feeds my point which summed up is “we better hope that look still works because it’s responsible for A LOT of our best snowstorms and it’s not like we’re picking up new ways to snow to replace it in this warmer climate base state”. 

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah they look close. I just think there are probably enough subtleties than cant be detected by comparing past h5 composites to a current projected mean. I would have to be convinced that the current Pacific state is not more hostile than say back in Feb 2010, despite the similar h5 looks.

As I said in a discussion we had the other day, I am willing to consider the possibility that what used to be our "money looks" for snow events here may not work as well anymore. Maybe a  -EPO becomes the new -AO.

This here...is why I'm a tad anxious about how things turn out this winter--because it could have implications for the future. Could we not say that by the end of this winter we'll know if our snow climo is more damaged? Because I mean...if we get money looks and they don't work as well...that is foreboding. Because then you couldn't say "try again next year", because the over climo would be more hostile. So this winter is gonna be very important for our future snow prospects...and that's a tad nerve-wracking. Our snow future could be riding on what we see this year, couldn't it?

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I stole this graphic from the post that PSU made to start off the snow climo thread last year.  He has marked the EPO domain.  An EPO ridge is just AN 500 MB heights in the EPO region.

 

Now on those maps you guys post...above normal heights are shown in red?

32 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

Since I don't think it has been answered yet, the 500mb height is a function of the surface pressure and thickness (which is proportional to temperature averaged over the layer). So, BN heights can be the result of BN temperatures from the sfc to 500mb, BN surface pressure, or some combination. When the 500mb height is BN but sfc is AN, that tells me the sfc pressures are low and/or the sfc temp is higher than would be expected for a given thickness. This makes sense since Pacific maritime air masses have steeper lapse rates (warm sfc, cold aloft) than continental/arctic origin air (cold sfc, cold aloft). Think about it - air coming from the Pacific more or less assumes the SST after many days. There isn't enough time when these travel over North America to cool radiatively at the sfc. Also, the latent heat added from orographic precip over the Rockies actually results in a warming of these air masses (chinook effect). Contrast that with Arctic air masses - the cooling is strongest at the surface (surface radiates heat much more effectively than atmosphere), so these tend to have a strong inversion. Further, when you get an EPO ridge the cold air doesn't have to cross the Rockies, it comes down the eastern slope from the north so no latent heat gets added (not that there would be much considering how dry these air masses are).

Models are really good at moving air around - I'm not sure how well they represent the radiative heating/cooling though. It's pretty complex and depends on the surface properties, water vapor, etc. I remember reading a paper about the formation of deep cold air masses, and the authors found that you get "diamond dust" ice crystals - basically very light snow w/o clouds - forming below -40C (or something really cold), and these radiate heat more effectively than the air itself. At really long lead times if these processes are not represented properly it could result in a odd looking temperature for a given flow pattern. There are modeling experts on this forum who know way more than me (I'm from more of a radar/remote sensing background) , so I'm happy to be corrected.

Well I've certainly learned something this evening...especially the part about the Chinook effect...and why an EPO ridge is helpful (though I still need clarity on exactly what it is). Thanks for breaking that down! 

33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

shhhh you're not supposed to tell people that. 

Well in your case, I kinda assume that...lol

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Meh, but the pacific isn’t perfect so we’ll probably waste it.  We need a perfect look!!!!!!! 

No...from what the knowledgeable posters have said on here...doesn't have to be PERFECT...but just not hostile. (I think PSU said something to the effect of...when other things are great all an opposing factor has to be is mediocre and we can still make things work)

On 12/26/2020 at 3:22 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

There is going to be a huge backlog dump next week or the week afterwards 

Ya mean like this?                                 

(sorry mods I couldn't resist)

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

yeah...kinda 

To clarify my analogy,

Strat warming=hammer Jello=vortex 

Just now, CAPE said:

Dude we are going to be set after the SSWE has completed. Just be patient. Our time is coming! Looking like the very end of Jan into Feb could rock. Maybe. If the daughter vortices end up in the right spots. Otherwise, probably not.

Now in my brain...I have a picture of a big hammer smashing a huge glob of jello...and when it does, the jello splits...but how the pieces of the jello separate is kinda random. Is that kinda how it is with the strat warming and the vortex?

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

See that? Heard several saying with some definity that "oh I have feeling the Ravens are gonna go 11-5 and miss the playoffs"...whereas the reality was that the odds were on our side (as long as we win out of course). Sure, the worst wasn't impossible, so I kinda get the fear, but the odds were a bit against it. So now we know missing the playoffs in that particular way can't happen...And now we just bite our nails for the Bengals game, lol I think it could end up being close...wouldn't be surprised if a little bit more adversity is necessary before the playoffs if we are to make it!

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  

Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it

Yo how can you possibly say that? We have a vulnerable polar vortex this year...that ALONE is better than last year!

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Beach weather in Salisbury today apparently

 

Looks like a SBW (sudden beach warming)

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

He sometimes lurks but left the board. Busy with life stuff yadda yadda. 
 

we need a bingo spot for “where’s bob chill” @NorthArlington101

Ah so you have seen him lurking?

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This winter seems puzzling.  Last winter we knew we were fooked like a prison party for new guests...but we saw it coming...this year seems more uncertain and could go either way.  Memorable or forgettable.  

Kinda where I'm at...in my mind this winter is literally up in the air at the moment, lol Perhaps this may tell us about where we are with our snow climo in general...(which is slightly nerve-wracking)

1 minute ago, REH said:

 No but he is missed here. I post at another forum where showmethesnow posts. So great to read his morning thoughts. I can understand with a certain poster or two here why they left. 

Which forum?

Just now, Chris78 said:

I think patience is the key word. Normally blocks give us the goods after there well established  and starting to break down or reload. 

Not sure that answered my question, though lol

Just now, REH said:

My apologies then. I just think we put too much thought into temp maps, even ensemble guidance, that far out in time. Some people punting winter ( not you or cape ) because they see a map all colored in red and freak out. The winter of 2009-2010 will Probably never walk through the door again but Canada was incredible warm that winter also. Looks can be deceiving sometimes 

Now see that there...was gonna be my next question. See, based on that winter, I thought if it was warm up there it would be cold down here...but I'm guessing it's not that simple? (is anything about winter simple? Lol)

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s rarely our source region. And honestly 50% of the time when it is that’s not a good snowstorm look. A huge arse full lat EPO ridge with a +NAO is a cold dry look and we typically warm when a wave approaches. We would either need that followed by a quick NAO flip or a perfectly positioned positively tilted epo ridge to get a progressive wave pattern. That’s going to be super rare.  If the Yukon doesn’t work as a source region we’re going to be pretty fooked most of the time. That sounds way too much like the people in the southeast forum who need to pray the stars align while a rare white elk and a unicorn stroll by every 5 years to have a shot at significant snow!  

Okay, so the Yukon is our main source region of cold? Now how does that work? (is that related to what you were saying with your map earlier?)