Maestrobjwa

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS blows chunks

Now...I hesitate to ask (because I'm no longer use which questions are obnoxious), what's the little split thing the GFS is doing here? This just the two piece of energy not phasing with each other...and one going one OTS and the other cutting? (now I'm not familiar with a "cold" cutter)

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Had 3.5 yesterday, compacted down to 2 and back up to 3.25

Overall the models and most forecasters  missed this for DC proper. Not so close by but that is the most frequent finish to Bs.

Not a bust and there have been several awful painful historic ones. Not a hit either.   This seems to start reversal of our bad winter pattern and we might not get above 25 by Sun and Mon 

Might wanna put this in the other thread?

52 minutes ago, jlh said:

Looking better than most of what's been thrown at is the past few seasons, when I am getting excited over an inch, you know it's been rough lol.

Now wait a minute we can't have a Ji AND and Jih in here too, lol

Now is Baltimore getting caught in between the two bands from the coastal just one of those random "never know where the bands will set up" kind of things, or was there another reason? Lol Perhaps it just so happened that way because of where the transfer setup?

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Were we not in a warning during March 18’? Maybe not but if feel like I remember getting a quick 5” in Dundalk and then March melting of course 

I don't think we made 5" in March '18...at least, not officially at BWI. I only remember measuring 3 inches

Well, unfortunately we didn't hit warning criteria here in Baltimore ...but the beautiful snow scenery was really nice to look at. I hope at least one of the next two windows of potential will finally yield us our first verified warning level event since 2016!!

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

These notes are cures for the continued dry slot blues...

Lol...Now the weird part is the dry slots the past 3 hours haven't been without precip...at least no imby.

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't think I've ever gotten such a small accumulation that has necessitated a plow coming through my parent's street 3 times. They've done two passes since the snow started on Sunday - and with that band that went through...seems they will need to plow/salt again. Already had a neighbor skid down the street in a truck already. 

Yeah that long period of freezing drizzle was probably the culprit, I'd imagine. But the good news was it was easy to clean off the cars! 

Nice band that's been moving through over the last hour! Definitely the heaviest of the event

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Send it 15 miles south!

Yeah seriously...this is kinda ridiculous, lol Got a band to the west band to the northeast...C'MON! A little further south...please? 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember many many years ago seeing some correlation chart that showed temperature correlations by winter weeks for the major indices. And that I thought oddly the NAO didn’t correlate nearly as much as I expected...UNTIL late January or February then it was like the god of indicators. I’ll have to remind myself of that next time we’re warm during a -NAO early in the season. 

Well then hopefully that means things aren't at a snow climo armageddon just yet 

Just now, mappy said:

it has a long way to go to get to fairfax. so we dont know

Better chance to make it to Baltimore, I hope?

Just now, WxUSAF said:

That whole area of snow in SE PA looks aimed right at us...hopefully it holds together well.  

Traveling south/southwest?

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I can confirm it. Nothing here. Adding nothing to totals. 

Is this thing seriously gonna snow hole Baltimore? Lol Hope it fill in!

Here's the thing...even when you know, like you saw this close miss coming 4-5 days ago...I'm not sure it takes the sting out of it. I don't think this will ever not sting to see when it happens, no matter how much I know it's coming.

But like I said, perhaps we get our chance soon...we shall see 

Just now, SnowtoRain said:

Looks like cecil county is about to get 1 ft. per minute rates.

For those that chase...Cecil County is the place to be during a Miller B, lol But I perhaps we can get our turn soon...we shall see 

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Man... so, so close. Great banding being shot up the 95 corridor in NJ. Best Dynamics are JUST too far NE to swing precip back into our area. Still think my area over to PSU and points north have a shot at 4-6” today  

 

My parents in New York proper have already surpassed my 6”, have 7.5” since 11 last night, and are heading for 2 feet by tomorrow morning, no doubt. So jealous. 

Juuust missed...Don't torture us dude, lol Trying to just enjoy what we have...(and resist the temptation to look ahead)

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn’t look at any of the other 0z guidance. Did any other ops key in on anything during this frame? 

CMC also had something, I believe...but I'm sure that model is in the dog house here at the moment...lol

I think it was perfectly reasonable to expect a little more out of the WAA. The coastal was always a question because, well, Miller B...lol

32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not even a fan of Miller A.  Would rather a stalled front to our south in a blocked pattern with a pineapple connection.  

Wait wha? Hope you're being sarcastic...

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I actually thought about this coming up after I posted and almost went back and edited a bunch of stuff. I know it sounds funny as hell to do because it is but this system is pretty personal. More than a little work went into it. I use tricks like this for all kinds of complex topics I'm either required to learn or just for recreation. I dont want it to become a board thing. 

 

Too late...lol

Oof...the WSW drought continues (for now)...kinda, lol I'd imagine with even with a backend of the backend of the ccb, Baltimore should get to 5 inches, you'd think...

So...do we have an STJ element to this one?

Thanks for that post @Bob Chill. I think your learning method explains how non-mets can still gain a lot of knowledge in weather. Sounds like you are a more visual person, no? (i.e. your sandwich analogy, lol) I tend to be when it comes to learning things (auditory learning as well)...but if you can learn weather by "seeing" per se...that gives me some confidence that I can as well!

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I’ve said this once before, and I will say it again.

Please don’t EVER bring these images and disco of that storm in this forum. That was one of the worst Christmases ever watching that storm slip away. This gives me worse PTSD than that other storm that shall not be named.


.

Man I am so thankful I was not yet following this board or weather models back then...this would've felt even worse!! (I was already bummed about the miss...but I had no idea just how close we were to having something, lol) But this is my biggest evidence for why not to expect a big snow outside of our prime climo (mid-Jan through President's Day)...these fluky fails happen more then, lol