Maestrobjwa

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Notice...the GEFS have not shifted that NE wall to the precip running through central NJ at all the last few runs...but are tightening up the precip south of that line.  That is about what I expect in the end.  Somewhere between Philly and NYC is going to be a very very sharp cutoff and south of that gets a good snow and north is smokin cirrus 

So could you explain again your confidence that the cutoff sets up there and why it's less risk that it sets up south of us?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this sounds contradictory...but imo its all about the health of that upper level system in the Ohio valley.  If that is amplified enough I do expect some north adjustment towards gametime.  But I bet it goes one way or the other.  If the upper level wave is too weak and starts to shear out this will trend south...and end up not even that close.  If it is healthy enough to pump ridging in front it will amplify enough that it will trend north SLIGHTLY.  So long as its not a shearing out mess as it comes across my bet is it trends slightly north...but this isn't a setup that argues way north...if DC is being fringed we are good...if richmond is being fringed...uh oh.  But I don't see a close south miss with an amplified wave to be a high risk...this is either going to wash out and be a weak NC system or amplify and we are good.  

I'm psyched with one of those scenarios and good with the other. If we can't get it I'd rather south not get it either, lol

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Lifebuoy to the rescue! 

Well see I had missed the whole mess in here...what happened? Lol

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Alright, all cleaned up. Have a good one guys

Momma had to give the forum a bath? Lol

C'mon folks I need some good news here...please tell me that we won't have to punt February, and that we'll have a chance. Haven't heard anybody say a ton about Feb. yet! (Edit, I see some discussion a page or two ago) A chance or no?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Euro looking kinda weak this run. 

Yep...To think we might end up getting blanked snow-wise next week...wow. Gotta hope and pray we can have another chance in February.

Euro unfortunately looks like GFS this run...dang, man...tough night. But look, if this is gonna fail, better to know now, I suppose.

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok let me clarify what I meant above before I start a panic....this run of the GFS does not bother me because its the GFS and its all over the place at this range.  But...the way it suppressed the storm on THIS run was a more realistic scenario.  What I saw on the last few runs didn't bother me at all because it was suppressing the storm for the wrong reasons.  So...as long as none of the other guidance trends to a weak pathetic flat wave ejecting out west tonight...we are fine.  But if we start to see across guidance a trend weaker with the upper level low coming across that is BAD because that is what is driving this storm.  There has to be an amplifying upper level low to our west to pump ridging for this scenario to work.   The trough axis is off the east coast and the flow is NW to SE...this isnt a type of setup where a surface low is going to amplify up the coast along the baroclinic boundary.  This only works if we have a strong upper level center to our west pumping heights into the confluence to our NE creating a strong inverted trough for a low to amplify along.  That won't work if the upper low is weak.  

But I still don't get how this squares with the concern of us not being cold enough...How, in the disaster scenario you mentioned, would it be cold enough to snow down south?

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south

Are any of your feelings about things ever good, though? Lol

5 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Another good (bad??) pun, to go with your "fret" one the other day!!  That one made you a Guitar Hero!! 

Well done on the parallel GFS pun!  Perhaps it's engaging in para-normal activity too? 

Once they exterminate the para-site it should be good! 

21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

Yeah I don't get it...Somehow the snow weenie brain of some translates a slightly unfavorable D7 model run into reality and and favorable one into fantasy...where in reality neither is true because, well....the reality, whichever it is, hasn't happened yet!!!

Just now, Cobalt said:

Reminds me of something...

Don't say it, lol If I remember correctly, though...models had the low all the way down in Georgia and we were trying to will it up this way...So as long as this doesn't trend south the next few days then maybe we're in a good spot? Lol

19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I've learned to set my expectations low here over the past 3 years.

I hear ya...which is why I said "I hope", lol

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

On the 12z Euro, it appears that H5 is a bit flatter out ahead of the system than it's 00z counterpart. Would be nice to score two solid advisory level events next week.

I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning 

32 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Now this is more the result you'd expect for the high to be in that position. So much better than what we've been seeing, lol

Just now, mattie g said:

The Para is still stuck on 6z at 102.

Unfortunately it's para-lyzed

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They really put their foot in this snow map, didn't they?...

12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? 

Not quite my style...

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Nah, he’ll get to his gig only to find out that the frets have been removed. As always .....

But THIS is!!!  Musical mayhem would be my specialty! That would really give him something to fret about *ba-dum pssh*

48 minutes ago, Ji said:

cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig 

Dude if you complain about that so help me!!!! Lol

*In mobster voice* "That's a real nice guitar...it would be a shame if somethin' happened to it..."

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You getting on my bus?

Not to mention...it's on a weekend! Ain't that when a lot of our bigger snows showed up?  

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours.

 

 

12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.

Of course it's an op run 200+ hrs away (and not worth parsing details at this range) but I'd note that, at the very least...unlike the storm before it,.you actually have the fully frozen result you'd expect to have with a high over top right there...so at least that's something, lol

3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Euro looks pretty for the 28th

Would love to have that to track starting this weekend!

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@leesburg 04 My points are frustration at the larger picture and how much harder it's getting to get snow...not specific to this week.  We may luck out still...its a really nice setup still...just need some south adjustment to the current consensus but I am also still seeing signs the coverage of snow will be much less then it should be historically given this setup.  An amplifying southern wave sliding west to east under a block with an airmass that originated in the Arctic over the top...that should have a HUGE expansive WAA snow shield to its north and northeast and we shouldn't need to be sweating getting the exact perfect track to get some snow.  It was already hard to get snow here...if every storm even in a really good pattern has some paltry narrow freaking area of snow it makes it even more likely we strike out even in good patterns, and you can forget it in mediocre or bad ones.  

And you don't think this may just be unique to this particular year? Is there precedent?...Didn’t I hear talk of the cold air being bottled up in the other side of the globe a month ago? I mean, maybe this is me trying to keep some hope alive that what we're seeing is not permanent, but...Didn't we have the "bomb cyclone" just two years ago? I don't remember an absence of cold air that year (just that dang fast flow). 

What if something particular about this year (that's not related to the elephant in the room) caused this?

@psuhoffman A couple pages late, but I'm loling at the "UGH"...first time I've ever seen that one a weather map, lol Hopefully we see less "UGH" on the GFS over the next day or two!