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Maestrobjwa

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Posts posted by Maestrobjwa

    January Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity.

    That's why I don't understand the hysteria in here. It was never progged to be before the middle of the month! (and historically it's always mid January on even in most of our best years)

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Ji said:

    the problem @psuhoffmanis we are ending the first week of January and we have nothing to track

    The problem is expectations were too early. Dude, when did you hear anybody (other than DT's slightly early call) say anything about early January being the period to watch? Now either I missed something...or the thinking has been mid-January on for good potential. The blocking is already on the doorstep...as this run of the GFS shows for the 11th  @psuhoffman the suppression on that run is indicative of that, right?

    And Ji, tell me...how many moderate or big storms have we had before the middle of January in our history? Answer: Not many (got two December big hits, and one early January--that being 1996). So even in our best years this is kinda how things happen. It is far too early to panic (although I know you do anyway, lol). So no, not having anything to track by now isn't a "problem" imo.

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Giving up based on...one event? Now I could understand if the longwave pattern wasn't looking as favorable in the LR, or if we weren't still progged to get blocking, but...panicking just because of the weekend deal? Don't quite get that...look ahead, folks! Better off letting the weekend go and letting it be a surprise if it works out.

    • Like 1

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it. B)

    That would be a very nina-ish result (snowhole), would it not? Would love to get in on one of those storms, but...as long as we have something to track beyond that...I can be okay with it, lol

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    And with that...we are in!! Now to get the biggest monkey of our back...and go on from there!! LET'S GO!! Go Ravens!!

    Although it will be historically easier...we have done a lot better in their stadium in the playoffs than trying to play them here. I feel a lot better playing them there than here!

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    @WxUSAF I would like to see a few less SWs flying around. That one in the 4 corners this week really hurts the wave spacing for Friday. The multiple waves next week makes the 12th tricky. In the end I doubt they all get suppressed but it’s probably making it harder for guidance to key on what to amplify. We likely won’t get a super long track storm with all these waves running interference with one another. 

    And this is the chaos part I don't like...because you don't know what's gonna be a favorable interaction and an unfavorable one...and or if one interaction happens at the right time or the wrong time...dang it, lol

    Miller A/B/Hybrid

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Thanks for the write-up @psuhoffman! A good reference to have..So essentially, I gather from this is that pure Miller B's are kinda heartbreakers that either screw us completely or, at best, give us a small-moderate amount while dumping more further north/northeast? Could we say, then...that the next time we have a modeled pure Miller B, it's better to look at it as low probability? (no matter what the op depictions are, lol)

    The southern system part makes sense...I can see STJ involvement is kind of our bread and butter isn't it?

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    Lol look at how much ridging out west. 
     

    I still think this event has more chance for heartbreak then glory, but I think we’re going to be busy next week and beyond. 

    Yeah I mean...we weren't even expecting this to be a thing a week ago. As you said, this would be pretty much gravy on top of what could lie ahead if things keep trending well!

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

    Sir. I'm gonna have to ask you politely to NEVER post this storm in here ever again. 

    Sincerely,

    A Scarred Meteorologist and Mid Atlantic Snow Lover 

    So let's see...we have this scar, and the Boxing day scar. Both between Christmas and New Year's...I rest my case, lol Never trust that time frame down here for decent snow, folks! Wait till afterward...most of the medium/big ones fall between early/mid January and President's Day.

    • Haha 1

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

    No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing

    Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol)

    Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

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