Maestrobjwa

Lamar continuing to look Lamarkable! Other than the TD passes...my favorite pass had to be that beautiful 47-yarder to Hollywood in the first half. That shows he's been working on his deep ball! And overall...dude somehow looked sharper today! If he has indeed gotten even BETTER at passing...whoa boy, watch out!

20 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Yes. You'd have to come up with three male Q names for the Atlantic, three female Q names for the Atlantic. Then another three male Q names for the Eastern Pacific, then another three female Q names for the Pacific.

I guess you could alternate like the Eastern Pacific does with Xina, Xavier, Zeke, Zelda, Yolanda and York every two years...but who knows.

I gotcha--thanks! Welp, now that we're about to head into Greek territory, may as well call the Atlantic the frat/sorority house and be done with it, lol

Just now, jcwxguy said:

Y could be yoda and Yaddle 

Or Yamcha...

If I may ask a rookie question...why do they skip over the letter Q? Because there aren't as many Q names? (same question for X, Y, and Z?)

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Man, it’s been awhile, but doesn’t a Nina favor clippers?

You'd think!

3 hours ago, Ji said:

i think this year will surprise us in a good way

I pray that you're right...We haven't had any good surprises in a little while, so who knows? Good part is we ain't going into it with lofty expectations of any kind...so why not? Lol

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It does, but it also doesn't seem to be advancing much north. Seem like it is hitting a wall right now.

Got a question about this...Why is it that areas in the southern half of the state seem to be more prone to severe weather? Or am I just imagining that? (Seems like the northeast part of the state sees a little more too...nothing like an Aberdeen/northeast, MD thunderstorm, lol)

Dang so what is this...just a southern MD/DC event? Had no idea this was an "event" per se...I knew it was supposed to be heavy rain or whatever but...dang, lol

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

Too early for that, wait until real winter when there will be even less snow than that.

See I'm expecting to see plenty more blue on the screen due to la nina...but I'm just keeping any hopes it'll be blue in the right places at a BARE minimum if that, lol

6 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

We need a digital now thread for WV now!

Dang I had to strain to see that! Lol

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn’t mad then either, but I’m mad now that that was the last time we had a winter! 

What do you mean, dude? Lol

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Actually bathetic didn’t show much at all but about a day before all of a sudden the gfs and others jumped in and showed a big event and then just as promptly started taking it away.

We were duped

Bathetic? Lol

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I get Vietnam-esque flashbacks from that event.

I am so glad I wasn't on this board back then...because I really was not aware of what the models had been showing a few days before! I mean the miss still hurt, but it's just not as vivid...so ignorance was bliss, lol But knowing what I do now about ninas...I woulda never trusted that until it was a maxium of 12 hours away!

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We know day 15 scores are barely better than climo. So not shocking day 100+ is erratic and unreliable. But the models are based on sound physics. Despite what DT says they don’t show things that are physically impossible. Improbable maybe but not impossible. So what these random runs that show a colder winter paradigm say is that yes that outcome is still within the envelop of possibilities. We all know what what the likely outcome is given our Nina climo.  But still within the Nina set are anomalies (1904/5, 1910/11, 1917/18, 1995/96). And we don’t have a really good predictive answer for them. If you showed me all the data from early fall 1995 I wouldn’t have expected that. And I think sometimes the desire to figure it out leads to prescribing too much significance to one factor. Yea the QBO was going negative but we have had other Nina’s with a similar qbo that didn’t lead to that outcome. I think sometimes people are uncomfortable with uncertainty and just admitting “we don’t know”.  Odds favor the typical dud Nina. But maybe come March we are looking back wondering how no one saw that coming!  

Now if you would...and apologies if I'm sounding a bit jumbled...

I'm trying to figure out visually what is required blocking-wise to get what we got in 1996.

Let's say we compare the December 2010 heartbreaker with the blizzard of 96.

Now visually...I remember the snowfall predictions of Dec. 2010 being increased on the northeast part of the map. What would have needed to happen to push that storm much further southwest so that we get hit flush? Would the blocking we had in 1996 have gotten that done?

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you understand the role that mountains play? Being to the east of the the Allegany front is a killer for us. Especially with light snow and snow shower activity.

Your Albany example isn’t a good one either. You’re talking about a place that is nearly 4 degrees latitude north of DC. If you went that far south you’d be somewhere between Charlotte NC and Columbia SC. Do you think East or west would matter in a snow comparison with them?

And to further illustrate just how bad the Albany example is, Albany is 3.25 degrees longitude east of DC. At this latitude that’s roughly 180 miles. Hmmmm, so much for the Albany isn’t too far west idea.

I think this picture here should resolve all arguments about why our geography is bad during ninas:

Man THIS is nina at her worst here. An incredibly annoying topography lesson right here, lol (this was from March 2018 I believe...what I call the great lakes low SCREW-OVER )

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Baltimore’s new avg is 19.4 and median is 15.3 for 1991-2020.  But I think CAPEs point with expectations is valid. Baltimore has beaten median 2 of the last 4 years and 5/7. If you used median as your goal/expectation for a “good” winter you will be satisfied more frequently. If you use avg you will be disappointed about 70% of the time.  If median isn’t enough to be satisfied...well moving is the more realistic option vs expecting our climo to change.  

Not expecting it to "change"...actually I'm dreading a change for the worse. Prior to this stretch, it seemed more predictable; every 3-5 years you were guaranteed to see one actual above average winter. But now...we are pushing that. 2016 will have been 5 years ago this winter. Looking at our records...only twice did we go more than 4-5 years without going above the 20" mark (that's a personal mark for me that separates good from great. I'm lowering the bar for "decent" to 18"). But point is, you could time it with a watch the last 30 years: 3-4 years...you get a 12" snowstorm, 6-7 years...a 2-footer. Before 1990...you still got above 20" every 3-4 years with or without one huge snowfall.

But now...I hear talk of that dang Hadley cell or whatever and I'm wondering it that's gonna muck up our climo and make snow even harder to get. So if anything, I'm fearing change in that direction...and I hope it won't go that way.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

You should get used to this possibility unless you plan to relocate. Or be more realistic with expectations and use median instead of mean.

There's not much difference between median and mea...just three inches, lol (median=15 and average=18 does it not?)  And dude...I AM trying to have realistic expectations. The heck do you think I'm trying to figure this out for? To figure out just what TO expect, because that definition has shifted since 2016. I'm not locked onto any solution or expectation...but yes, I am a bit concerned about having to wait more years in between than we've had to the last 30 years...it's a bit of a depressing prospect. Hoping for the best, though...

And no I can't relocate anytime soon (kinda how folks toss that around as if everybody can uproot their lives at the drop of a hat just for snow, lol)

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Consider historically we tend to get a big winter every 3-5 years anyways.

And dude...we might be about to test that a bit...gonna be five years this year, lol Man I hope stuff ain't broke in such a way that we gotta start waiting even longer for big winters! Life on this side is too short to have to wait 6+ years for an above average winter, lol My biggest fear is that stuff is so broke big winters are gonna be even harder to come by, smh

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But did it ever really work. It was too small a sample to really show true statistically significant causality correlation. Consider historically we tend to get a big winter every 3-5 years anyways. And I’ve seen winters on either side of past minimums attributed to that. So that’s like a 3 year window. Could easily have been only a very minor weak correlation and as much to do with random chance as a true strong causality. That said hope this year proves that wrong. It’s all we got. 

Now I've contemplated that argument about the strength (or lack thereof) of correlation...So you're better with statistics, so I'll just reiterate what I posted several months ago: I counted 11 solar minimums since 1902. Now...is 11 times still too small of a sample size? And if so...is the reason because there could've been some coincidences mixed in?

I made a post of the listed minimums and matched them up with the two winters that followed them. And each time...at least one of the two were above average except for the ones following the 1996 "bottom" (but that was the one time where the benefit came just before). Now is there something else to look at where we could gain more insight?

http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-minimum-most-likely-occurred-in-december-2019

So according to this...they think it's possible that we did indeed hit the bottom back in December. So I'd imagine...if the "lag" in the benefit of previous solar minimums is true, then if we are to benefit from this one at all, we'd probably have to see it this winter. But if we don't...seems to me like we might have to consider that not even the solar min works anymore, smh

BUT...on the other hand...hey, if we hit the magic 18" mark or go above in a nina, we might be able to say it still works, haha

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Just got the new Farmers Almanac...”sheets of sleet” for LWX.  Curious use of words.  Chuckle worthy but traditional. 

What I found interesting about them last year was...not even THEY forecasted in big storms for last winter like they usually tend to do! That shoulda warned us of last winter's drudgery, lol

Black Panther was Bozeman's 9th symphony. Some greats make their last crowning work just a few years (or less) before they pass; Black Panther is his! Rest in Power...

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

RIP Chadwick Boseman

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So sad. So young. 

And he was battling colon cancer all through the Black Panther movie...talk about a true super hero! I've been hearing how medical researchers have been raising the concern about younger people getting colon cancer lately (just look at Trey Mancini, for crying out loud!) I pray they can figure out why...

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I do want to go back so bad.  This is not a picnic for me either. First of all while I’m ok at tech stuff I am not qualified to be tech support to 120 teenagers and parents. But I am now!  And there are no off hours. I’m on call all the time!  And running online classes sucks imo. It’s not my thing.  My work day is more stressful now I than it was before. My hours aren’t any different either. I still have to grade the same work and manage the same students and teach the same class time.  Only now I have to somehow manage my sons online classes also even though I’m supposed to be teaching non stop all day. They want us to implement the IEP interventions and I have no idea how that’s going to work online!  I guess I do avoid my commute but I didn’t mind that. The drive was time for me to reflect and relax and prepare it decompress from the day. 

This really sucks and I want to just go back to normal. So I totally get it. But I also don’t want to die and I know several students, parents, co-workers, and family in my schools community who have contracted Covid recently.  Unfortunately I know a few who have passed away. It’s still around in Baltimore City.  And some of the stuff I’m hearing doesn’t make me comfortable. No satisfying answer on how to ensure students wear masks. Pushes to cut social distancing to 4 feet not 6 because we have classes with 45 and even if we do a/b hybrid that’s still 20+ in very small rooms.  If you saw the example test room you would think it’s just a normal classroom. Fact is our classes are so crowded I typically have to stack the desks together with no space between them to fit them all so for us a “socially distanced” room is 4 feet between desks and anytime anyone moves they are inside 4 feet.  Their answers on other procedures are inadequate also. Frankly they seem like they just want the kids back but don’t have the ability to follow the necessary protocols to do it safely.  But that is all specific to my school.  There are districts with way fewer cases in the community that have way more resources than my school does. So my feelings do not necessarily apply to what all schools should do. 

Praying for you and all the other teachers that have been struggling. It just sucks that the situation is so lose-lose in a lot of school districts.