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Maestrobjwa

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    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    It will never snow deep again :(

    So much for "Im not trying to be harsh. I’m trying to help." You're clearly taking every effort to hit me over the head mercilessly.

    • Haha 1

    Hurricane Ida's Remnants

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

    Ian over on Twitter is also debbing the threat a bit (saying it may be shifted NE of us). I get these opinions - though at the same time mesoanalysis DOES show 500-1000 MLCAPE in the area. That should be enough to sustain some sort of threat. Sure - best may be NE of us - but I'm not ready to deb at all yet. Breaks in the clouds are close enough to many of us as well. 

    Would be just like us to miss the rain totals north and severe northeast...lol Still just cloudy here

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, CAPE said:

    Both the latest CanSIPS and CFS have a pretty classic crapola Nina look for the winter months. Ofc none of these climate models are very good, but based on historic Nina climo and recent history, tough to bet against a predominant PAC ridge.

    And folks tell me there's no magic formula for prediction...lol Perhaps not for the other ENSO states, but for Nina? I mean 95-96 is the only outlier! I mean I guess there's enough chaos for something randomore to happen, but...ninas seem to be the most predictable around here...

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

    Ida may end up remembered as much for its extensive widespread flooding over the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region as its impacts on the Gulf Coast here in the coming days. The mesoscale models are pumping out some insanely high totals over a large region. Oh, and look here, me posting the NAM in a tropical thread; whereby, inland flooding from baroclinic influences upon a surface low and frontogenesis, which is more within its wheelhouse of intended usage. The HRRR is showing much the same as is the RAP. Hope these are just being way overdone. Otherwise, Ida isn't done with the news cycles anytime soon.
    f2d902d76828969cb94820148e99e39a.jpg8d8530dd0516b8951582d9e7fe43c410.jpg8a784245e3704205a5c9a5bf4c888d18.jpg

    Question: why did the precip max setup inland instead of more in the I-95 corridor? Does it have something to do with elevation? Or is it just the storm track?

    August 2021 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

    This is the never-ending debate around here. Do we root for the most extreme solution or do we hope for the less exciting solution out of concern for safety? We always hear that weather's gonna weather, and no amount of hoping it does one or the other ultimately matters, so might as well root for the extreme solution. Not sure I buy that since that extreme solution could end up IMBY. Extreme weather is exciting, but it also usually results in bad sh*t happening.

    Yep that's the crux of it...I think many of us here have a truly divided mind over this (like the proverbial good angel/bad angel on the shoulder, lol)

    Hurricane Ida's Remnants

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

    ^^ and more recently than Snowmageddon, we talk about severe, but only a few weeks ago lightning struck a house in Frederick County and a firefighter was killed.   

    And that's terrible...see that's what you hate to hear. Not as tragic, but still kinda bad...last month lighting struck the steeple of the church where I just became Music Director...fire coulda burned down the whole church had it not been for someone, Praise God, being there at the right time (and it being next to a fire station). So in that instance, it's like...yeah ya love the weather but when bad things happen? Ya hate that! It's a strange psychology...

    Hurricane Ida's Remnants

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    Not really. It’s called having some humanity. It’s one thing to be fascinated by extreme weather. We all are. But to actually be disappointed if it doesn’t happen, to me, is just somehow not ok .

    The psychology doesn't make sense, but it is possible to feel both. It's like...you want no one to get hurt. But yet...you want that extreme weather too. Like when we got Snowmageddon...someone died walking in the street due to unplowed sidewalks. Did ya want that to happen? Of course not! It's awful. But were we happy with the legendary snow? Absolutely. Same with hurricanes...awesome to see powerful ones, yet awful to see the results.

    So the humanity feels for the victims of such and wishes no harm. But yet...something in the brain also wants the extremes for excitement too. So when that part of the brain/psyche doesn't get the extreme weather, there's disappointment. And yet you're happy nobody gets hurt. If I had a magic button I'd make it so you could have extreme yet no damage, lol

    August 2021 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Ya know, I had planned to disengage from here this fall/winter so I wouldn't have to see the typical nina screw jobs coming...but this beat me to it! Smh Ya know, no matter how well you know this region and it's tendencies, it still kinda hurts anyway...but so it goes. But still it's better not to see it beforehand!

    August 2021 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

    WB 12Z NAM.  Complete disaster if this had been a snow storm.  Lot of forecast busts on the way…

    D0A5FF72-C54B-423E-82AE-CE8B3B3E55FE.png

    I just don't understand how this happens in the summer time with tropical...smh How do we STILL miss north and west...and this has nothing to do with elevation? Those folks up there get everything, summer AND winter. (although I'm gonna guess this is gonna be a flooding threat). It's like somebody put a bubble around us, smh (I mean sure you could see it as protective...that we don't get the bad things that come with flooding, but...still want some fun weather at the same time).

    La Nina screwing us early this year, apparently...north, west, east, smh

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

    Looks like the media completely forgot about this hurricane already thanks to Afghanistan. Oh well. 

    Dude NBC Nightly News just spent a third of their broadcast covering it...no they didn't "forget"...It's just a bit of an unusual time where two huge events are happening at once. 

    • Like 4

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, tiger_deF said:

    Ida, nearly 5 hours after landfall

    608e44d5-a7a4-41df-b25f-54106b7cddc7.jpeg

    Ida: "Land? What land? I don't see any land!"

    But seriously folks are saying it's not really "land" because of all the marshes/wetlands and such...but I didn't know a hurricane could still feed off a just a half-wet environment!

    • Like 5

    Ida Banter

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

    lol this absolute colossal dip**** is walking his dogs in the middle of this eyewall, i genuinely do not understand what goes through people's heads.  he is going to die out there.  meanwhile the guy streaming is on the phone with someone saying he's recording gusts up to 200 mph.  which, idk maybe that seems high to be but whatever.  the spirit is there.

    200 mph gusts, gonna go walk my dogs.

    edit: idk what i'm thinking, there's no way these are 200 mph gusts lmao

    How would that even work anyway, lol Your dog's poop and pee would be blown in your face so fast it would sting, lol

    • Haha 3
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