Maestrobjwa

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF I would like to see a few less SWs flying around. That one in the 4 corners this week really hurts the wave spacing for Friday. The multiple waves next week makes the 12th tricky. In the end I doubt they all get suppressed but it’s probably making it harder for guidance to key on what to amplify. We likely won’t get a super long track storm with all these waves running interference with one another. 

And this is the chaos part I don't like...because you don't know what's gonna be a favorable interaction and an unfavorable one...and or if one interaction happens at the right time or the wrong time...dang it, lol

Thanks for the write-up @psuhoffman! A good reference to have..So essentially, I gather from this is that pure Miller B's are kinda heartbreakers that either screw us completely or, at best, give us a small-moderate amount while dumping more further north/northeast? Could we say, then...that the next time we have a modeled pure Miller B, it's better to look at it as low probability? (no matter what the op depictions are, lol)

The southern system part makes sense...I can see STJ involvement is kind of our bread and butter isn't it?

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol look at how much ridging out west. 
 

I still think this event has more chance for heartbreak then glory, but I think we’re going to be busy next week and beyond. 

Yeah I mean...we weren't even expecting this to be a thing a week ago. As you said, this would be pretty much gravy on top of what could lie ahead if things keep trending well!

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sir. I'm gonna have to ask you politely to NEVER post this storm in here ever again. 

Sincerely,

A Scarred Meteorologist and Mid Atlantic Snow Lover 

So let's see...we have this scar, and the Boxing day scar. Both between Christmas and New Year's...I rest my case, lol Never trust that time frame down here for decent snow, folks! Wait till afterward...most of the medium/big ones fall between early/mid January and President's Day.

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing

Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol)

Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That is not a fondly remembered event here 

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Of all the posts I have seen that one made me smile.  Very nice 

Ah, a GOOD head fake for a change!

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

If first you dont succeed...... 

Starting D7

Love seeing the active STJ! (assuming that's what I'm looking at, lol) Now that's a bit atypical for a nina right? (If so, it's refreshing to have a something be a GOOD atypical for a change!)

Happy New Year everyone!! God bless 

5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Nice freezing weather in Russia!

happy new year everyone!

Sweet mercy...are you over there? Lol

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

My deb alarm went off come on dood lol

It's that stupid emoji he used that did it! I kinda despise that thing, lol

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This might be about as negative as the NAO can get. The AO is also super negative at the end of that run.

 

Alright kids...sing it:

So-lar min min min min-min min-min

So-lar min min min min-min min-min

So-lar min min min min-min min-min

So-lar min!

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Deepest trough in the northern Hemisphere showing up over the eastern US. And a tiny spec of “Barney” for the first time in how long...

Rubble or the dinosaur?

(but seriously what are you referring too? Lol)

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ETA:  it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. 

Now you know that caveat won't work...worrying will always commence, lol

Just now, Interstate said:

From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well.

The second blizzard was pretty cold...although I remember there being a warm layer there that turned to freezing rain for a time in the corridor (and my 19 year-old ungrateful self was sittin' there complaining about it, smh)

48 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

i believe we had a severely negative -nao/-ao during the winter of 59-60.  and yet we were completely snowless until sometime in february that season?  patience.

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

ji got a foot but of course he already forgot

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed

Let me ask you something...are you ever actually thankful when you do get snow?

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019.  I finished with just under 7".  I think Baltimore got shafted though.

We sure did...which is why I don't even count it!

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list.  I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. 

Ah yes...I think the article I copy and pasted from was from before 2016, lol And yeah I know YOU know...posting more for others here!

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is NOT the same as waiting for a late save in March. Yea it sucks to wait until later January but honestly this is our climo MO. And frankly if we want to pick the absolute best time to maximize the probabilities of taking advantage of blocking and cold late January into February is it!

 

Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun)

Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that!

1. Feb. 15-18, 2003:  28.2 inches     

2. Jan. 27-29, 1922:  26.5 inches        

3. Feb. 5-6, 2010:  24.8 inches*

4. Feb. 11, 1983:  22.8 inches

5. Jan. 7-8, 1996:  22.5 inches

6. Mar. 29-30, 1942:  22.0 inches

7. Feb. 11-14, 1899:  21.4 inches        

8. Dec. 18-19, 2009:  21.1 inches

9. Feb. 18-19, 1979:  20.0 inches

10. Feb. 9-10, 2010:  19.5 inches

11. Mar. 15-18, 1892:  16.0 inches

12. Feb. 15, 1958:  15.5 inches           

13. Jan. 25, 2000:  14.9 inches

14. Dec. 11-12, 1960:  14.1 inches

15. Feb. 11-12, 2006:  13.1 inches

16. Mar. 5-7, 1962:  13.0 inches

17: Jan. 22, 1987:  12.3 inches        

18. Jan. 30-31, 1966:  12.1 inches

19. Feb. 16-18, 1900:  12.0 inches

20. Mar. 13-14, 1993:  11.9 inches

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your second point is interesting. The one biggest change is the enhanced pac jet. But that seems to be a new normal since it’s existed for quite a while now regardless of enso state.  But perhaps that has made that look less supportive then it once was. And your point about outdated analogs is true. But that also kind of feeds my point which summed up is “we better hope that look still works because it’s responsible for A LOT of our best snowstorms and it’s not like we’re picking up new ways to snow to replace it in this warmer climate base state”. 

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah they look close. I just think there are probably enough subtleties than cant be detected by comparing past h5 composites to a current projected mean. I would have to be convinced that the current Pacific state is not more hostile than say back in Feb 2010, despite the similar h5 looks.

As I said in a discussion we had the other day, I am willing to consider the possibility that what used to be our "money looks" for snow events here may not work as well anymore. Maybe a  -EPO becomes the new -AO.

This here...is why I'm a tad anxious about how things turn out this winter--because it could have implications for the future. Could we not say that by the end of this winter we'll know if our snow climo is more damaged? Because I mean...if we get money looks and they don't work as well...that is foreboding. Because then you couldn't say "try again next year", because the over climo would be more hostile. So this winter is gonna be very important for our future snow prospects...and that's a tad nerve-wracking. Our snow future could be riding on what we see this year, couldn't it?

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I stole this graphic from the post that PSU made to start off the snow climo thread last year.  He has marked the EPO domain.  An EPO ridge is just AN 500 MB heights in the EPO region.

 

Now on those maps you guys post...above normal heights are shown in red?

32 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

Since I don't think it has been answered yet, the 500mb height is a function of the surface pressure and thickness (which is proportional to temperature averaged over the layer). So, BN heights can be the result of BN temperatures from the sfc to 500mb, BN surface pressure, or some combination. When the 500mb height is BN but sfc is AN, that tells me the sfc pressures are low and/or the sfc temp is higher than would be expected for a given thickness. This makes sense since Pacific maritime air masses have steeper lapse rates (warm sfc, cold aloft) than continental/arctic origin air (cold sfc, cold aloft). Think about it - air coming from the Pacific more or less assumes the SST after many days. There isn't enough time when these travel over North America to cool radiatively at the sfc. Also, the latent heat added from orographic precip over the Rockies actually results in a warming of these air masses (chinook effect). Contrast that with Arctic air masses - the cooling is strongest at the surface (surface radiates heat much more effectively than atmosphere), so these tend to have a strong inversion. Further, when you get an EPO ridge the cold air doesn't have to cross the Rockies, it comes down the eastern slope from the north so no latent heat gets added (not that there would be much considering how dry these air masses are).

Models are really good at moving air around - I'm not sure how well they represent the radiative heating/cooling though. It's pretty complex and depends on the surface properties, water vapor, etc. I remember reading a paper about the formation of deep cold air masses, and the authors found that you get "diamond dust" ice crystals - basically very light snow w/o clouds - forming below -40C (or something really cold), and these radiate heat more effectively than the air itself. At really long lead times if these processes are not represented properly it could result in a odd looking temperature for a given flow pattern. There are modeling experts on this forum who know way more than me (I'm from more of a radar/remote sensing background) , so I'm happy to be corrected.

Well I've certainly learned something this evening...especially the part about the Chinook effect...and why an EPO ridge is helpful (though I still need clarity on exactly what it is). Thanks for breaking that down! 

33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

shhhh you're not supposed to tell people that. 

Well in your case, I kinda assume that...lol

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Meh, but the pacific isn’t perfect so we’ll probably waste it.  We need a perfect look!!!!!!! 

No...from what the knowledgeable posters have said on here...doesn't have to be PERFECT...but just not hostile. (I think PSU said something to the effect of...when other things are great all an opposing factor has to be is mediocre and we can still make things work)