Maestrobjwa

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the 12z Gefs and there is a signal for a possible sw getting south of  us and even cutting off centered on day 7 . Not a big signal but it's there. 

Again with the GEFS...lol The few times the GFS or GEFS shows a morsel of hope the Euro/Eps comes in and says "Nope!"

Looking over BWI records...this would only be the fourth time on record that we've failed to crack the 2 inch mark. If we fail to get anymore this winter, then two of those times would have happened within the last 10 years, smh (the other time was 1972-73 where we only got 1.2 inches)

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...Lucy has put the football down again.

"Again"? I'm not sure there have been many footballs put down in the first place, lol I guess the only remotely close "football" was a few weeks ago...and even that was lower percentage at the start with no EURO support. And I'm almost fully expecting you to say eps says no in a couple hours (but I hope you spare us the maps, lol...why ya torture yourself and us with those is beyond me...WHY?)

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance right now is split between neutral to Nina. 

Hopefully another neutral + minimum could be better...If you wanna look at history, I'd lean more towards average snowfall...all the minimum years hit that or better within a year...But of course, climate...so who knows.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s probably because somewhere in the back of your mind you still cling to hope. Abandon all hope and accept our fate and it will go much more smoothly. 

Yeah you don't know my brain, lol Suckage is suckage...living through it is not easier. Just like we knew the +AO would suck...doesn't make it any better. Coming on here, having all the negative emotion reinforced...hearing forecasts of mild records everywhere...how the heck does expecting less make that better? Heck, I dread this for next year, and it will still suck if it happens. I don't think the "abandon hope" option works for everybody.

For example:

I will never trust a nina again and will always expect the worst. But that doesn't mean that all the crap that usually comes with a nina (close misses, perpetual snowhole, beaches clobbered, n + e cashing in) still isn't gonna be depressing. Low expectations don't equal things being pleasant.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t kidding about my 5-10” prediction. I mean it’s a WAG and totally based on probabilities BUT it’s legit. Currently odds do not favor a nino and other than ninos all other winters following years like this mostly sucked. On top of that our median snowfall since 2000 in all non nino years is 7.5”. So yea next year is probably going to suck.  

But look on the bright side...maybe they miscalculated and that huge asteroid this week will hit the Earth and then we won’t have to suffer through it. 

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?)

And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In this pattern winter could have been GOT length and it wouldn’t have made any difference. 

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter.

Same...

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why worry? Expect total suckage. Anything better is an over performer.

Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out. 

For me, the only "torture" of 55 degree temps with blocking in April is more a torture of regret and frustration--because you are reminded of how you DIDN'T get that blocking and/or -NAO when you needed it in winter. Call it...the torture of weather unfairness, lol

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Our chances of an above avg snow year are still good in a nino.  But since 2000 EVERYTHING else has been crap.  We have only had one good snowfall year since 2000 in a non nino year.  The other 12 were all some variation of garbage.  That didn't used to be the case.  Enso neutral years used to produce above avg snowfall years much more frequently in the past.  Not so anymore.  On top of that years with a crappy pattern are trending downwards in snowfall results likely due to warming eliminating some of the marginal fluke snowfalls that would get a year like 1989 or 1992 or 2002 to 5" instead of 1" or nothing. 

If we are now at the point where neutral ensos are no longer 50/50 and more likely to be bad than good, and we can only score in ninos...that's a sad reality. Seeing as we may only get like what...1-2 ninos per decade? That would mean we'd only hit above average 2 out of 10 years. Man I hope that's not the reality we're looking at...(and why does it seem like ninas happen more times in a decade than ninos?)

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Euro looking diggy with the ns so far...

Gettin' diggy with it?

40 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

from last night's EPS, but worth it

Which day was that? Lol

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

If we're talking about historical trends...there does not appear to be one that offers hope for a better season than that: the solar minimum.

I looked through BWI records and compared them with the estimated years that the minimum "bottomed out". There hasn't been a time where one of the two years surrounding the minimum didn't give us a decent (at least average) winter. And from what I can see...all but one time actually had above average snow (and the exception--the minimum of the 40s, still had a winter that logged 18 inches). So it doesn't appear that we've ever gone without the minimum giving us some kind of benefit...so we shall see.

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

95-96 was nina at tail end of solar min so never say it's a lock to be a bust.

I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, lol (I meant to add that I was excluding that year) Yeah but look how anomalous that is. I have trouble factoring that into what I'd expect from a nina because that happened just one time in 130+ years--so probably not a good idea to count on that. Safer to bet on what they've normally done aside from that one data point!

15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here.  Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

March 25, 2013 comes to mind.  Now, that wasn't as bad as this winter has been, but it was loaded with disappointment (especially when we got screwed earlier that month).

Will we ever forget the infamous Cantore out in the rain photo? Lol

And here we have our region failing at failing...had to ruin the shutout historical record, lol

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Bring on La Nina. I will take my chances lol.

Man NO!!!!! La nothin'! If I had to choose between a nina like 2016/17 or 2017/18...and a winter like this, I'm tempted to pick this winter. See low snow totals + folks just east/northeast of ya cashing in feels worse than low snow totals and everybody getting screwed. The close misses are the heartbreakers...and la ninas, by nature, seem to have more of those than the other ENSO states.

Best place in MD to be during a la nina is the beaches (or perhaps Northeast MD). Otherwise, heartbreak...

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO.  Some flurry action this Saturday.

Man, no!! Now look, if we are gonna fail, then fail properly...just go for the historical record (or at least not such an occurrence recorded since 1882). of not even a trace of snow recorded in February. But of course...I could see us finding a way to fail at failing, lol

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The hail woke me up last night and it sounded like it was pounding rain.  Surprised to see only .40" in the gauge this morning, and even more surprised to see that ridiculous end to the MD game.

Dang, it hailed here in the city too? Around what time?

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Holy crap... Morsell!  I thought the MSU game would be the best comeback of the year... omg these guys

What in the world? Ya know, something told me they were gonna come back...lol (but I turned it off because I had to do a couple things!). Just watched the highlights...that was truly clutch! Could this team finally be the one that can make a deep run?...

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground. 

Was thinking something along those lines...lol That we may have to follow the yellow brine road to find some snow!

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Little WB Oz GEFS or EPS support yet for the GFS 0z Day 13 deterministic run.

Do you notice that you sometimes write 0z like "Oz"? Lol

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3056561437689538&id=100000071343185&_rdr

To lighten the mood...I came across a story about this video. This lady is many of us here if we reach that age, lolol (oh, and she's still alive--and now 105!)

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Hints of the tpv breaking down at the end of the gfs. Just in time for our 37 degree epic perfect track phased bomb rainstorm 

Layin the troll jelly on thick today, aren't ya? Lol